Public Spending on Science and Research

Dr Graeme Reid

CaSE Roundtable 25 May 2012

The Economic Context

Increasing competition

Source: World Bank, PWC model estimates for 2050

1980 rank GDP at PPP* 2009 rank GDP at PPP* 2050 rank

Projected GDP at PPP*

1 US $5,796bn 1 US $14,256bn 1 China $59,475bn

2 Japan $2,193bn 2 China $8,888bn 2 India $43,180bn

3 Germany $1,633bn 3 Japan $4,138bn 3 US $37,876bn

4 France $1,118bn 4 India $3,752bn 4 Brazil $9,762bn

5 Italy $1,062bn 5 Germany $2,984bn 5 Japan $7,664bn

6 UK $979bn 6 Russia $2,687bn 6 Russia $7,559bn

7 Brazil $921bn 7 UK $2,257bn 7 Mexico $6,682bn

8 Mexico $704bn 8 France $2,172bn 8 Indonesia $6,205bn

9 India $615bn 9 Brazil $2,020bn 9 Germany $5,707bn

10 Spain $575bn 10 Italy $1,922bn 10 UK $5,628bn

11 Canada $567bn 11 Mexico $1,540bn 11 France $5,344bn

12 China $514bn 12 Spain $1,496bn 12 Turkey $5,298bn

Recessions

Source: ONS, OBR

Recovery from UK Recessions(100 = quarter prior to 1st quarter of contraction)

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Q0 Q2 Q4 Q6 Q8 Q10 Q12 Q14 Q16 Q18 Q20 Q22 Q24

GD

P In

dex

2008 OBR forecast (Mar 2012)

1990 1980

1973 1930s

2012 Q12014 Q1

The Role of Science and Research

Economic and social impact

Delivering highly skilled peopleto the labour market

Improving the performance of existing businesses

Improving public policy and public services

Attracting R&D investment from global business

Creating new businesses

Economicand Social

Impact

Economicand Social

Impact

The UK Government’s Response

Cash changes for main Departments over the 2010 Spending Review period

FCOJu

stice

DCMS

Loca

l Gov

t

DEFRAIn

tellig

ence

DfID

BIS (t

otal)

DECC

Home

Office

Trans

port

Health

DWP

Educa

tion

Defen

ce

Scien

ce &

Res

earc

h

HMRC

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

£50m to commercialisegraphene ▪ £145m forhigh performancecomputing(October 2011)

£100m for Research & Innovation Campuses(2011 Budget)

£200m of new science capital funding(Autumn Statement, 2011)

Innovation and Research Strategy for Growth (December 2011)

Wilson Review of University– BusinessCollaboration (February 2012)

£100m University ResearchCo-Investment Funding

(2012 Budget)

What happens next?

• Triennial Review of the Research Councils

• Spending Review?

• Growth Agenda and the Heseltine review

Issues

• Science and Research vs. specialisms

• Impact now

• Efficiency

• Capital investment

• Leverage