public opinion survey of residents of ukraine · 2019-12-13 · 4 geographical key *due to the...

Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine

December 13-27, 2018

Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights inSurvey Research.

• The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas) from December 13-27, 2018, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.

• The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by gender, age, region, and settlement size. The distribution of population by regions and settlementsis based on statistical data of the Central Election Commission from the 2014 parliamentary elections, and the distribution of population by age and gender is based on data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine from January 1, 2018.

• A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and “last birthday” methods for respondent selection.

• Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas.

• Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size:

• Cities with populations of more than 1 million

• Cities with populations of between 500,000-999,000



• Cities with populations of up to 50,000

• Villages

Cities and villages were selected by the PPS method (probability proportional to size). The number of selected cities/villages in each region is proportional to the share of population living in cities/villages of a certain type in eachregion.

• Stage Three: Households were selected by the random route method, and respondents were selected by the “last birthday” rule.

• The margin of error does not exceed 2.0 percent for the full sample.

• The response rate is 62.7 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

• For disaggregations by intended vote, the Top 9 parties and the Top 10 presidential candidates are displayed. The sample ofrespondents who would vote for other parties/candidates is too small for analysis.

http://ratinggroup.ua/en/

https://www.iri.org/program/put-data-work

https://www.google.ru/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwjI86SRnuzTAhWFAJoKHSAkB8UQFggoMAA&url=https://www.usaid.gov/uk/ukraine&usg=AFQjCNFGt_678aQcWt612RAfAuJGcQZiUg

http://www.usaid.gov/

Frequently Cited Disaggregates

3

Region Sample Size (n)

West 625

Center 813

East 375

South 587

Age Sample Size (n)

18-35 714

36-50 652

50+ 1,024

First Choice in

Presidential Elections

Sample Size

(n)

Yuriy Boyko 169

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 164

Oleh Lyashko 136

Yevheniy Muraiev 77

Petro Poroshenko 205

Andriy Sadoviy 50

Yulia Tymoshenko 320

Oleksandr Shevchenko 69

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 54

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 217

I would not vote 322

Undecided 451

Political Party

Preference

Sample Size

(n)

Batkivshchyna 326

BPP “Solidarnist” 180

Civic Position 146

Nashi 71

Oppositional Platform –

Za Zhyttia159

Radical Party 141

Self-Reliance

(Samopomich)62

Sluha Narodu 202

UKROP 66

I would not vote 355

Undecided 469

4

Geographical Key

*Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea and the so-

called separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (“the Donbas”) were not surveyed in this poll.

Presidential Elections:March 31, 2019

Do you intend to vote in the presidential elections scheduled for March 31, 2019?

6

32%

42%

5%

12%

9%

Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

Somewhat no

Definitely no

Difficult to answer/No answer

7

(Disaggregated by region, age)

26%

30%

37%

26%

30%

32%

38%

43%

44%

40%

41%

40%

43%

44%

7%

5%

4%

6%

6%

5%

4%

13%

13%

10%

17%

14%

10%

7%

10%

8%

9%

10%

10%

10%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

South

East

Center

West

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer


23%

28%

30%

31%

32%

34%

36%

42%

45%

46%

57%

47%

62%

59%

46%

56%

59%

54%

49%

47%

44%

39%

6%

4%

2%

6%

3%

1%

2%

5%

4%

3%

4%

24%

6%

10%

14%

8%

6%

7%

4%

4%

6%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Undecided

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk

Andriy Sadovyi

Yevheniy Muraiev

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yuriy Boyko

Oleh Lyashko

Oleksandr Shevchenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Petro Poroshenko

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Somewhat no Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

8

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election; see next slide)


1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

If presidential elections were held next Sunday and the following candidates participated in the election, for whom would you vote?

9

19%

13%

4%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

6%

7%

7%

9%

9%

13%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


I would not vote

Other

Arseniy Yatseniuk

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko

Ruslan Koshulynskyi

Serhiy Taruta

Andriy Sadovyi



Yevheniy Muraiev

Oleh Lyashko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yuriy Boyko

Petro Poroshenko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yulia Tymoshenko

(All respondents)

10

(Among likely voters: n=1,773)

17%

4%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

7%

8%

9%

11%

11%

16%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Other

Arseniy Yatseniuk


Ruslan Koshulynskyi

Serhiy Taruta

Andriy Sadovyi


Yevheniy Muraiev


Oleh Lyashko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yuriy Boyko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Petro Poroshenko

Yulia Tymoshenko


11

18-35 36-50 51+ West Center South East

Yulia Tymoshenko 11% 13% 16% 13% 16% 13% 8%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 18% 9% 3% 5% 10% 12% 7%

Petro Poroshenko 7% 10% 9% 12% 9% 5% 7%

Yuriy Boyko 3% 5% 11% 4% 5% 9% 13%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 3% 6% 10% 9% 7% 4% 6%

Oleh Lyashko 3% 5% 8% 5% 6% 7% 3%

Yevheniy Muraiev 1% 4% 4% - 4% 4% 6%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 4% 3% 2% 6% 2% 2% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 4% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 2%

Serhiy Taruta 1% 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1%

Ruslan Koshulynskyi 1% 1% - 2% - - 1%

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko - 1% 1% 2% - - 1%

Arseniy Yatseniuk 1% - - 1% - - -

Other 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 3% 5%

I would not vote 17% 14% 11% 9% 11% 19% 17%

Difficult to answer/No answer 20% 19% 18% 23% 16% 18% 20%


(Disaggregated by age, region)

12

Batk

ivsh

chyna

BPP S

olidarn

ist

Civ

ic P

osi

tion

Nash

y

Opposi

tion

Pla

tform

Radic

al Part

y

Sam

opom

ich

Slu

ha N

aro

du

UKRO

P

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Yulia Tymoshenko 93% 3% - - 1% - 3% - 1% - -

Petro Poroshenko 1% 91% 1% - - - 3% - 1% - 4%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 1% 88% - 2% 1% 6% - 1% 1% 2%

Yevheniy Muraiev - 1% 1% 84% 4% 1% - - - 1% 1%

Yuriy Boyko - - - 4% 87% 1% 2% - 1% - 2%

Oleh Lyashko 1% - - - - 88% - 1% - - 1%

Andriy Sadovyi - 1% - - - - 67% - - - 1%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi - - 1% 4% - 1% - 88% 2% - 5%

Oleksandr Shevchenko 1% 1% 2% - - 2% 2% - 79% 1% -

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 1% 1% 2% - - 1% 8% 5% 3% 1% 4%

Serhiy Taruta - - 1% - - - - 1% - - -

Ruslan Koshulynskyi - - - - - - - - - - 1%

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko - - - - - - 1% - - - -

Arseniy Yatseniuk - - - - - - - - - - -

Other - 1% - 7% 1% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3%

I would not vote - - 1% - 1% - - - - 84% 4%

Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 6% 6% 4% 8% 10% 72%


(Disaggregated by political party preference)

*The highlighting indicates candidates’ political party affiliation.

Presidential Election: Run-Off Scenarios

If the following two candidates made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?

14

20%

41%

26%

13%

Difficult toanswer/No

answer

Would notvote

YuliaTymoshenko

PetroPoroshenko

0% 20% 40% 60%

Poroshenko vs.

Tymoshenko

21%

35%

23%

21%

Difficult toanswer/No answer

Would not vote

Yulia Tymoshenko

AnatoliyHrytsenko

0% 20% 40%

21%

33%

23%

24%


Would not vote

VolodymyrZelenskyi

Yulia Tymoshenko

0% 20% 40%

22%

38%

25%

15%

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

Would not vote

Yulia Tymoshenko

Andriy Sadovyi

0% 20% 40%

Hrytsenko vs.

Tymoshenko

Sadovyi vs.

TymoshenkoTymoshenko vs.

Zelenskyi


15

20%

38%

28%

14%


answer

Would notvote

YuliaTymoshenko

Yuriy Boyko

0% 20% 40%

Boyko vs.

Tymoshenko

21%

35%

18%

26%


Would not vote

SviatoslavVakarchuk

Yulia Tymoshenko

0% 20% 40%

24%

38%

11%

27%


Would not vote

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

0% 20% 40%

21%

36%

29%

14%

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

Would not vote

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Petro Poroshenko

0% 20% 40%

Tymoshenko vs.

Vakarchuk

Poroshenko vs.

ZelenskyiHrytsenko vs.

Poroshenko


16

23%

41%

18%

18%


answer

Would notvote

PetroPoroshenko

Yuriy Boyko

0% 20% 40% 60%

Boyko vs.

Poroshenko

24%

45%

18%

13%


Would not vote

Andriy Sadovyi

Petro Poroshenko

0% 20% 40% 60%

24%

42%

22%

12%


Would not vote

SviatoslavVakarchuk

Petro Poroshenko

0% 20% 40% 60%

Poroshenko vs.

Sadovyi

Poroshenko vs.

Vakarchuk

If Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would

you vote?

17

99%

37%

28%

24%

22%

19%

19%

13%

13%

16%

5%

16%

15%

3%

2%

2%

10%

9%

98%

6%

39%

31%

41%

54%

59%

67%

49%

41%

29%

1%

20%

25%

19%

21%

20%

12%

28%

37%

2%

49%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko

Andriy Sadovyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev



Petro Poroshenko

Undecided22%

25%

30%

16%

26%

29%

29%

26%

11%

14%

13%

10%

20%

8%

12%

13%

45%

42%

37%

50%

30%

45%

42%

41%

22%

18%

19%

24%

23%

18%

17%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

East

West

South

Center

Nationwide

Yulia Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

(Disaggregated by first round choice)

If Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would

you vote?

18

99%

40%

35%

30%

26%

25%

17%

12%

12%

14%

11%

18%

13%

27%

9%

14%

14%

21%

98%

12%

30%

25%

26%

30%

39%

49%

58%

41%

20%

<1%

20%

22%

31%

17%

27%

20%

16%

26%

2%

53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Petro Poroshenko

Andriy Sadovyi


Oleh Lyashko


Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yulia Tymoshenko

Undecided13%

22%

26%

14%

15%

22%

31%

21%

21%

23%

24%

27%

14%

24%

23%

23%

42%

34%

30%

42%

45%

34%

22%

35%

24%

21%

20%

17%

26%

20%

24%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

South

East

Center

West

Nationwide

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer


97%

32%

24%

21%

15%

15%

13%

13%

11%

12%

<1%

21%

25%

27%

15%

22%

19%

21%

53%

97%

16%

30%

25%

30%

54%

41%

47%

34%

20%

20%

2%

17%

27%

21%

16%

22%

22%

32%

17%

3%

53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko

Andriy Sadovyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Petro Poroshenko

Yuriy Boyko



Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Undecided

19

17%

23%

28%

14%

25%

25%

26%

24%

34%

23%

15%

15%

26%

22%

25%

23%

30%

34%

35%

47%

24%

38%

30%

33%

19%

20%

22%

25%

26%

14%

19%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

East

West

South

Center

Nationwide

Yulia Tymoshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Yulia Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom

would you vote?


97%

40%

11%

11%

9%

8%

7%

6%

4%

1%

10%

10%

34%

22%

32%

14%

23%

33%

29%

97%

15%

36%

38%

47%

41%

45%

51%

39%

40%

25%

3%

14%

17%

20%

18%

33%

19%

22%

28%

2%

50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Oleh Lyashko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko


Petro Poroshenko

Andriy Sadovyi


Yulia Tymoshenko

Undecided

20

9%

14%

19%

8%

12%

18%

26%

14%

24%

27%

31%

37%

29%

26%

12%

28%

45%

40%

31%

33%

39%

41%

39%

38%

22%

20%

19%

23%

20%

15%

23%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

West

Center

South

East

Nationwide

Yuriy Boyko Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Yuriy Boyko and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you vote?


98%

33%

19%

18%

16%

14%

14%

14%

13%

15%

17%

13%

31%

5%

18%

10%

39%

25%

100%

10%

31%

44%

32%

66%

38%

52%

32%

33%

23%

2%

19%

24%

19%

13%

29%

23%

16%

30%

52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yevheniy Muraiev


Yuriy Boyko

Petro Poroshenko


Andriy Sadovyi

Undecided

21

22%

24%

28%

16%

24%

28%

28%

25%

13%

20%

14%

7%

27%

15%

9%

15%

41%

38%

36%

50%

24%

37%

46%

38%

24%

18%

22%

27%

25%

20%

17%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

East

West

Center

South

Nationwide

Yulia Tymoshenko Andriy Sadovyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Yulia Tymoshenko and Andriy Sadovyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would

you vote?


92%

39%

38%

36%

32%

18%

13%

10%

10%

1%

12%

17%

20%

16%

19%

14%

34%

16%

17%

98%

14%

29%

19%

30%

29%

42%

30%

61%

52%

21%

8%

16%

23%

17%

19%

25%

23%

13%

22%

1%

54%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Andriy Sadovyi

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko


Oleh Lyashko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Yuriy Boyko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Undecided

22

14%

19%

23%

8%

12%

19%

29%

18%

30%

24%

21%

16%

29%

28%

25%

26%

34%

37%

35%

49%

44%

33%

22%

35%

22%

19%

21%

26%

15%

20%

23%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

51+

36-50

18-35

East

South

Center

West

Nationwide

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Yulia Tymoshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Yulia Tymoshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom

would you vote?


99%

45%

42%

39%

35%

25%

24%

22%

20%

4%

20%

6%

5%

9%

2%

9%

2%

4%

2%

93%

4%

25%

30%

27%

39%

35%

51%

49%

67%

20%

1%

24%

23%

24%

23%

31%

23%

25%

10%

3%

56%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Andriy Sadovyi

Yulia Tymoshenko


Oleh Lyashko


Yuriy Boyko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yevheniy Muraiev

Petro Poroshenko

Undecided

23

20%

27%

32%

18%

22%

29%

35%

27%

11%

14%

11%

9%

7%

12%

17%

11%

44%

37%

34%

46%

51%

36%

23%

38%

26%

22%

23%

27%

19%

24%

25%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

East

South

Center

West

Nationwide

Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Anatoliy Hrytsenko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would

you vote?


96%

14%

12%

11%

7%

7%

5%

4%

4%

8%

2%

30%

44%

51%

25%

40%

33%

21%

22%

97%

19%

35%

23%

20%

32%

33%

39%

54%

60%

22%

2%

21%

21%

18%

36%

21%

23%

21%

14%

3%

52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Andriy Sadovyi



Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Undecided

24

11%

16%

14%

10%

11%

12%

21%

14%

39%

29%

21%

28%

17%

33%

31%

29%

30%

36%

40%

46%

47%

34%

22%

36%

20%

19%

24%

16%

25%

21%

25%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

South

East

Center

West

Nationwide

Petro Poroshenko Volodymyr Zelenskyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom

would you vote?


95%

44%

22%

20%

14%

12%

10%

9%

5%

12%

2%

12%

5%

13%

31%

23%

11%

25%

98%

11%

39%

48%

56%

45%

35%

49%

42%

42%

25%

5%

16%

19%

19%

28%

22%

17%

37%

28%

2%

52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Oleh Lyashko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yulia Tymoshenko

Andriy Sadovyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko



Petro Poroshenko

Undecided

25

13%

17%

22%

9%

14%

25%

29%

18%

16%

21%

17%

33%

16%

10%

10%

18%

46%

43%

37%

32%

47%

47%

37%

41%

25%

20%

23%

27%

23%

18%

23%

23%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

West

Center

South

East

Nationwide

Yuriy Boyko Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Yuriy Boyko and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would you

vote?


97%

7%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

8%

34%

27%

27%

29%

35%

12%

20%

13%

100%

12%

40%

39%

42%

44%

33%

62%

55%

71%

29%

3%

19%

28%

26%

23%

28%

23%

22%

13%

52%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko


Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko


Yuriy Boyko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yevheniy Muraiev

Andriy Sadovyi

Undecided

26

11%

15%

12%

8%

10%

12%

20%

13%

17%

21%

18%

16%

7%

18%

28%

18%

46%

44%

45%

56%

57%

47%

26%

45%

26%

20%

25%

21%

27%

23%

26%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

18-35

36-50

51+

South

East

Center

West

Nationwide

Petro Poroshenko Andriy Sadovyi Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Petro Poroshenko and Andriy Sadovyi made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom would

you vote?


91%

52%

44%

32%

32%

26%

25%

14%

13%

1%

13%

4%

2%

10%

5%

4%

7%

2%

4%

95%

8%

21%

39%

36%

39%

43%

37%

61%

66%

26%

9%

23%

15%

21%

24%

28%

31%

23%

17%

4%

53%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Andriy Sadovyi

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Oleh Lyashko


Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Petro Poroshenko

Undecided

27

17%

22%

28%

8%

17%

23%

33%

22%

13%

15%

10%

10%

8%

12%

19%

12%

44%

42%

40%

54%

53%

43%

23%

42%

26%

22%

23%

28%

22%

22%

26%

24%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

51+

36-50

18-35

East

South

Center

West

Nationwide

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk Petro Poroshenko Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Petro Poroshenko made it to a second round in the March 2019 presidential elections, for whom

would you vote?


Reasons for Candidate Selection

29

4%

1%

3%

7%

10%

15%

19%

17%

13%

11%

3%

1%

5%

7%

5%

13%

14%

20%

21%

11%

3%

1%

2%

4%

6%

7%

10%

11%

16%

39%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


Other

Russian presence in Crimea

Foreign policy

Government incompetence

Social benefits

Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc.

Economy

Corruption

Military conflict in the Donbas

First choice Second choice Third choice

When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019,

which issues influence your vote the most?

30


Military conflict in the Donbas 39% 41% 38% 40% 44% 37% 33%

Corruption 16% 17% 16% 21% 18% 14% 9%

Economy 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 10% 12%

Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc. 9% 8% 12% 8% 9% 13% 13%

Social benefits 6% 4% 10% 6% 5% 10% 9%

Government incompetence 5% 7% 5% 4% 6% 5% 8%

Foreign policy 5% 4% 4% 1% 3% 8% 7%

Russian presence in Crimea 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 2%

Other 1% - 1% 1% - 1% 1%


When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019,

which issues influence your vote the most?(First choice; disaggregated by age, region)

31

When making your decision on whom to vote for in the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 2019, which

issue influences your vote the most?

Yuri

y B

oyko

Svia

tosl

av V

akarc

huk

Anato

liy H

ryts

enko

Volo

dym

yr

Zele

nsk

yi

Ole

h L

yash

ko

Yevheniy

Mura

iev

Petr

o P

oro

shenko

Andri

y S

adovyi

Yulia T

ym

osh

enko

Ole

ksa

ndr

Shevchenko

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Military conflict in the Donbas 36% 35% 53% 35% 37% 37% 55% 42% 40% 25% 31% 41%

Corruption 16% 30% 13% 19% 18% 12% 8% 23% 19% 20% 14% 16%

Economy 13% 11% 9% 12% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12% 16% 9% 12%

Communal housing payments, utilities, tariffs, etc. 14% 7% 7% 8% 9% 13% 6% 2% 12% 13% 10% 13%

Social benefits 8% 7% 7% 6% 12% 11% 3% 10% 9% 2% 8% 5%

Government incompetence 5% 4% 5% 8% 6% 6% 3% 6% 3% 10% 9% 3%

Foreign policy 5% 2% 3% 6% 4% 6% 10% 4% 2% 4% 3% 4%

Russian presence in Crimea 2% 4% 3% 4% 1% 3% 3% 2% 2% 5% 1% 2%

Other - - - 1% 1% - - - 1% 2% 1% 1%

Difficult to answer/No answer 1% - 1% 3% 1% - - - - 4% 12% 5%

(First choice; disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

32

Improving the

economy

Improving social

protection for

the poor

Defending

Ukraine’s

territorial

integrity

Combatting

corruption

within state

bodies

Yulia Tymoshenko 17% 15% 11% 12%

Yuriy Boyko 9% 8% 6% 6%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 6% 8% 6% 8%

Petro Poroshenko 8% 6% 10% 5%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 5% 6% 11% 6%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 7% 5% 5%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 2% 2% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 2% 3% 2% 3%

Other 7% 6% 7% 7%

None of them 25% 26% 26% 32%

Difficult to answer/No answer 13% 13% 14% 15%

Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on the following issues?

33



Yuriy Boyko 5% 7% 13% 4% 8% 11% 17%




Oleh Lyashko 4% 4% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3%

Andriy Sadovyi 2% 4% 2% 4% 2% 1% 2%


Other 6% 8% 8% 5% 9% 4% 12%

None of them 27% 28% 21% 20% 21% 34% 26%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving the economy?


34

Yuri

y B

oyko

Svia

tosl

av V

akarc

huk

Anato

liy H

ryts

enko

Volo

dym

yr

Zele

nsk

yi

Ole

h L

yash

ko

Yevheniy

Mura

iev

Petr

o P

oro

shenko

Andri

y S

adovyi

Yulia T

ym

osh

enko

Ole

ksa

ndr

Shevchenko

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Yuriy Boyko 91% - 1% 2% - 19% - - 1% 1% 1% 5%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 58% - - - - - 2% - - - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko - 2% 64% 1% - - 3% - 1% 4% - 2%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 1% - - 58% - 3% - - - 3% 1% 1%

Oleh Lyashko - 2% 2% 1% 76% 1% - - - 1% - 1%

Petro Poroshenko - 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 81% 2% - 1% - 3%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% 2% 2% - - - - 80% - 3% - 1%

Yulia Tymoshenko 3% 9% 7% 7% 9% 4% 4% 6% 94% 6% 1% 8%

Other 2% - 2% 1% 1% 49% - 2% - 35% 2% 2%

None of them 3% 16% 7% 8% 5% 18% 3% 4% 2% 32% 84% 42%

Difficult to answer/No answer 1% 9% 14% 19% 8% 5% 6% 4% 2% 12% 10% 33%

Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving the economy?

(Disaggregated by first choice in presidential election)

35




Yuriy Boyko 4% 6% 12% 3% 7% 10% 17%

Oleh Lyashko 5% 6% 9% 8% 7% 8% 3%




Andriy Sadovyi 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2%

Other 5% 8% 7% 4% 8% 3% 11%

None of them 28% 29% 22% 21% 22% 33% 29%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving social protection for the poor?


36

Yuri

y B

oyko

Svia

tosl

av V

akarc

huk

Anato

liy H

ryts

enko

Volo

dym

yr

Zele

nsk

yi

Ole

h L

yash

ko

Yevheniy

Mura

iev

Petr

o P

oro

shenko

Andri

y S

adovyi

Yulia T

ym

osh

enko

Ole

ksa

ndr

Shevchenko

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Yuriy Boyko 85% - 2% 1% - 19% - - 1% - 1% 4%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 73% 2% 3% - - 2% 4% 1% 1% - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 2% 63% - 1% - 4% - 2% 6% - 2%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 2% 2% 2% 67% 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% 3% 2% 3%

Oleh Lyashko 1% 4% 4% 3% 82% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 1% 3%

Petro Poroshenko - 2% 2% - - 59% 2% - - - 2%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% 4% 1% 1% - - 2% 72% - 4% - -

Yulia Tymoshenko 3% 7% 6% 3% 2% 4% 6% 4% 85% 6% - 9%

Other 2% - 1% 1% - 44% 1% - - 31% 2% 3%

None of them 3% 2% 7% 7% 4% 22% 10% 8% 3% 34% 84% 43%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on improving social protection for the poor?


37





Yuriy Boyko 3% 4% 10% 2% 5% 8% 13%


Oleh Lyashko 3% 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 2%


Andriy Sadovyi 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%

Other 5% 9% 6% 5% 8% 4% 11%

None of them 29% 28% 22% 19% 24% 33% 27%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity?


38

Yuri

y B

oyko

Svia

tosl

av V

akarc

huk

Anato

liy H

ryts

enko

Volo

dym

yr

Zele

nsk

yi

Ole

h L

yash

ko

Yevheniy

Mura

iev

Petr

o P

oro

shenko

Andri

y S

adovyi

Yulia T

ym

osh

enko

Ole

ksa

ndr

Shevchenko

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Yuriy Boyko 72% - 1% 1% 1% 9% - - 1% - 1% 2%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk - 55% 1% 1% - - 1% 4% - 1% - -

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4% 13% 79% 5% 4% 6% 5% 14% 7% 6% 2% 9%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi - 5% 1% 56% 2% - - - 1% 4% 1% 1%

Oleh Lyashko 1% - 2% 1% 66% 1% - - 3% 6% - 2%

Petro Poroshenko 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 3% 81% 4% 3% 9% 1% 8%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% - - - 1% - - 61% - - - -

Yulia Tymoshenko 2% - 1% - 3% 4% 2% - 72% 4% - 2%

Other 2% - 1% 1% - 45% - - 1% 28% 2% 3%

None of them 6% 9% 6% 14% 7% 27% 3% 4% 4% 30% 83% 39%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity?


39





Yuriy Boyko 2% 4% 9% 2% 4% 6% 12%

Oleh Lyashko 3% 4% 7% 5% 6% 6% 3%



Andriy Sadovyi 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2%

Other 5% 8% 7% 6% 7% 4% 11%

None of them 34% 33% 29% 28% 29% 39% 34%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on combatting corruption within state bodies?


40

Yuri

y B

oyko

Svia

tosl

av V

akarc

huk

Anato

liy H

ryts

enko

Volo

dym

yr

Zele

nsk

yi

Ole

h L

yash

ko

Yevheniy

Mura

iev

Petr

o P

oro

shenko

Andri

y S

adovyi

Yulia T

ym

osh

enko

Ole

ksa

ndr

Shevchenko

Would

not

vote

Undecid

ed

Yuriy Boyko 65% - 1% - - 8% 1% - - - 1% 1%

Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 1% 64% 4% 1% - - 4% 2% 1% 3% - 1%

Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1% 2% 64% 1% 1% - 5% 4% 2% 4% - 3%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi 2% 4% 1% 68% 1% 4% 1% 6% 1% 4% 1% 2%

Oleh Lyashko - - 3% 1% 70% 1% 1% - 2% 4% - 2%

Petro Poroshenko - - 1% - 1% 1% 54% 2% 1% - - 1%

Andriy Sadovyi 1% - 2% - 1% 1% 1% 52% 1% 3% 1% 1%

Yulia Tymoshenko 2% 2% 2% 1% 7% 1% 2% 2% 75% 6% - 1%

Other 2% - 2% - - 42% - 4% - 31% 2% 4%

None of them 15% 16% 13% 12% 10% 31% 16% 12% 9% 38% 85% 50%


Which presidential candidate do you think is the best on combatting corruption within state bodies?


Expectations of Elections

42

4%

20%

38%

22%

16%

Completely free and fair

Somewhat free and fair

Somewhat not free and fair

Not free and fair at all


Do you believe that the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, will be free and fair?

43

2%

2%

1%

4%

3%

3%

10%

1%

4%

17%

6%

14%

11%

14%

17%

20%

23%

27%

20%

31%

34%

49%

30%

40%

47%

46%

45%

42%

43%

42%

40%

35%

39%

18%

50%

20%

29%

30%

19%

21%

14%

22%

13%

15%

13%

1%

14%

24%

11%

9%

16%

14%

16%

9%

18%

19%

10%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would not vote

Undecided

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev

Oleh Lyashko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yulia Tymoshenko



Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Andriy Sadovyi

Petro Poroshenko

Completely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair

Completely not free and fair Difficult to answer/No answer

Do you believe that the upcoming presidential elections, currently scheduled for March 31, 2019, will be free and fair?


44

5%

20%

31%

20%

24% The possibility of street violence isvery high

The possibility of street violence issomewhat high

The possibility of street violence issomewhat low

The possibility of street violence isvery low


Do you anticipate street violence in the run-up to the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?

45

7%

4%

2%

3%

6%

5%

6%

7%

5%

5%

5%

17%

22%

9%

12%

14%

15%

22%

21%

20%

25%

26%

27%

27%

25%

56%

42%

34%

30%

29%

31%

34%

26%

36%

40%

20%

14%

19%

29%

27%

26%

20%

21%

23%

17%

10%

17%

28%

35%

16%

15%

22%

23%

25%

21%

16%

26%

24%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would not vote

Undecided

Andriy Sadovyi

Petro Poroshenko


Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Oleh Lyashko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yuriy Boyko

Yevheniy Muraiev


The possibility of street violence is very high The possibility of street violence is somewhat high

The possibility of street violence is somewhat low The possibility of street violence is very low


Do you anticipate street violence in the run-up to the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?


46

6%

24%

26%

18%

26%

The possibility of street violence isvery high

The possibility of street violence issomewhat high

The possibility of street violence issomewhat low

The possibility of street violence isvery low


Do you anticipate street violence in the aftermath of the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?

47

9%

5%

2%

2%

5%

6%

6%

8%

4%

6%

8%

6%

23%

22%

16%

19%

19%

22%

23%

23%

26%

30%

31%

35%

23%

23%

40%

34%

26%

31%

22%

24%

33%

23%

28%

20%

14%

14%

26%

28%

31%

18%

24%

17%

21%

16%

16%

11%

31%

37%

16%

18%

19%

23%

25%

29%

16%

25%

18%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would not vote

Undecided

Petro Poroshenko

Andriy Sadovyi


Yulia Tymoshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Oleh Lyashko


Yuriy Boyko

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Yevheniy Muraiev




Do you anticipate street violence in the aftermath of the March 31, 2019 presidential elections?


9%

2%

3%

13%

6%

18%

27%

22%

30%

39%

37%

24%

49%

30%

16%

21%

6%

12%

18%

20%

Completely free and fair(n=86)

Somewhat free and fair(n=473)

Somewhat not free andfair (n=915)

Not free and fair at all(n=537)




48

… in the run-up to the March 2019 presidential elections?

6%

2%

5%

14%

7%

21%

31%

27%

30%

34%

32%

21%

48%

28%

13%

16%

9%

15%

19%

21%

Completely free and fair(n=86)

Somewhat free and fair(n=473)

Somewhat not free andfair (n=915)

Not free and fair at all(n=537)

Do you anticipate street violence…

…in the aftermath of the March 2019 presidential elections?

(Disaggregated by belief that the presidential elections will be free and fair)

Parliamentary Elections:October 27, 2019

Do you intend to vote in the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2019?

50

28%

40%

4%

13%

15%

Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

Somewhat no

Definitely no


If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, for which

political party would you vote?

51

20%

15%

4%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

3%

6%

6%

7%

8%

8%

14%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


I would not vote

Other

Vidrodzhennia

Narodnyi Front

Agrarian Party of Ukraine

Justice

Svoboda

OSNOVA

Opposition Bloc

Samopomich

UKROP

Nashy

Radical Party

Civic Position

Opposition Platform Za Zhyttia

BPP Solidarnist

Sluha Narodu

Batkivshchyna

(All respondents)

*In this survey, IRI replaced “Za Zhyttia” with the new political association, “Opposition Platform - Za Zhyttia” with Boyko mentioned among the leaders. The leaders of Opposition Bloc were listed as Novinskiy and Vilkul.

If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the election, for which

political party would you vote?

52

(Among likely voters: n=1,631)

18%

4%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

4%

7%

8%

8%

10%

11%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Other

Vidrodzhennia

Agrarian Party of Ukraine

Narodnyi Front

Justice

Opposition Bloc

Svoboda

OSNOVA

Nashy

Samopomich

UKROP

Radical Party

Civic Position

Opposition Platform Za Zhyttia

BPP Solidarnist

Sluha Narodu

Batkivshchyna

*In this survey, IRI replaced “Za Zhyttia” with the new political association, “Opposition Platform - Za Zhyttia” with Boyko mentioned among the leaders. The leaders of Opposition Bloc were listed as Novinskiy and Vilkul.

Introduction of Martial Law

54

9%

14%

27%

37%

13%

Completely support

Somewhat support

Somewhat oppose

Completely oppose


To what extent do you support or oppose the government’s decision to introduce a thirty-day period of martial law in

Ukraine, beginning effective November 28, 2018?

4%

5%

1%

1%

5%

5%

8%

13%

7%

10%

38%

6%

13%

6%

9%

11%

16%

14%

13%

23%

33%

30%

20%

27%

23%

29%

33%

30%

31%

34%

36%

31%

16%

56%

37%

63%

54%

38%

30%

35%

26%

24%

18%

7%

13%

18%

7%

7%

12%

18%

12%

14%

9%

9%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would not vote

Undecided

Nashy

Opposition Platform

Sluha Narodu

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Civic Position

UKROP

Samopomich

BPP Solidarnist

Completely support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Completely oppose Difficult to answer/No answer

55

To what extent do you support or oppose the government’s decision to introduce a thirty-day period of martial law in

Ukraine, beginning effective November 28, 2018?


56

16%

42%17%

9%

16%It’s a decision that serves the interests of Ukraine

It’s a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage

Both equally

Neither


In your opinion, did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine on November 28, 2018 serve the interests of Ukraine or did it

represent a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage?

6%

11%

4%

5%

11%

12%

13%

15%

19%

23%

65%

49%

40%

61%

53%

44%

42%

39%

47%

41%

28%

8%

15%

17%

20%

20%

23%

27%

23%

12%

17%

25%

14%

13%

10%

8%

11%

8%

6%

8%

10%

8%

6%

3%

18%

22%

7%

11%

14%

14%

17%

17%

15%

19%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Would not vote

Undecided

Opposition Platform

Nashy

Sluha Narodu

UKROP

Radical Party

Batkivshchyna

Civic Position

Samopomich

BPP Solidarnist

It's a decision that serves the interests of UkraineIt's a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantageBoth equallyNeitherDifficult to answer/No answer

57




58

3%

57%

59%

11%

15%

23%

12%

3%

12%

6%

Don't support the introduction ofmartial law (n=1,548)

Support the introduction of martiallaw (n=540)

It’s a decision that serves the interests of Ukraine

It’s a political decision aimed at giving some politicians an advantage

Both equally

Neither




59

To what extent did the introduction of martial law in Ukraine have any direct, negative impact on your day-to-day (“everyday”) life?

62%

20%

6%

12%

It has not negatively affected myeveryday life at all

It has somewhat affected myeveryday life in a negative manner

It has greatly affected my everydaylife in a negative manner


60

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

6%

6%

6%

63%

66%

65%

51%

14%

12%

13%

18%

14%

10%

10%

18%

5%

5%

4%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Volodymyr Hroisman

Oleh Lyashko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Petro Poroshenko

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Hasn’t changed

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

To what extent has your attitude towards the following politicians changed after the introduction of martial law in Ukraine?

National Mood

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

62

13% 14%15%

18%

34%

29%

15%17%

15%

11%13%

11%13%

18%

16%14%

15% 15% 16% 16%

71%

66%69%

64%

48%51%

72%

68%70%

76%71% 72% 72%

68% 67%

71% 71% 70% 71%70%

16%

20%

16%

17% 18%20%

13%15% 15%

13% 15%17%

15%

15%

17%15%

14% 15% 14% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

63

70%

27%

20%

19%

12%

10%

5%

4%

3%

5%

12%

21%

50%

69%

63%

77%

73%

82%

90%

92%

84%

67%

9%

23%

12%

18%

11%

17%

13%

5%

6%

11%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

BPP Solidarnist

Samopomich

Civic Position

UKROP

Batkivshchyna

Sluha Narodu

Radical Party

Opposition Platform

Nashy

Would not vote

Undecided

Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer


1%1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

8%

3%

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

3%

6%

5%6%

10%

9%

8%

5%

37%

39%

45%

37%

46%

41%

44%

46%

37%

19%

14%

18%

20%

15%

18%

23%

23%

26%

27%

26%

31%

29%

29%

33%

36%

34%

30%

27%

30%

30%

31%

29%

34%

37%

29%

34%

36%

36%

38%

37%

34%

31%

32%

31%

31%

27%

33%

34%

18%

18%

13%

15%

14%

17%

14%

18%

22%

40%

55%

45%

40%

47%

40%

36%

37%

34%

34%

33%

27%

32%

28%

23%

2%

3%

3%

5%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%1%

1%

2%1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed?

64

<1%

<1%

Assessment of UkrainianAuthorities’ Performance

9%

11%

15%

3%

4%

3%

2%

3%

3%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

3%

3%

33%

36%

40%

21%

20%

22%

15%

16%

17%

16%

15%

13%

12%

9%

12%

13%

14%

20%

19%

22%

34%

29%

28%

32%

36%

30%

33%

32%

38%

31%

31%

30%

29%

29%

27%

24%

13%

33%

40%

42%

43%

37%

44%

43%

43%

41%

46%

50%

50%

50%

48%

11%

11%

10%

8%

6%

6%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

8%

7%

6%

5%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko*?

66*Petro Poroshenko has been President of Ukraine since June 2014. Previous IRI polling data reflects

attitudes toward the previous president.

12%

16%

13%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

34%

36%

35%

10%

11%

11%

6%

19%

12%

14%

13%

15%

14%

14%

17%

16%

14%

17%

16%

27%

32%

29%

25%

25%

30%

28%

30%

32%

34%

28%

30%

29%

26%

28%

27%

24%

15%

52%

54%

57%

64%

29%

51%

49%

46%

42%

49%

43%

45%

50%

50%

9%

8%

10%

6%

5%

5%

4%

21%

8%

6%

7%

7%

8%

9%

8%

6%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018


Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under Volodymyr Hroisman?*

67*Volodymyr Hroisman has been Prime Minister of Ukraine since April 2016. Previous IRI polling data reflects

attitudes toward prior prime ministers.

2%

6%

6%

3%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

11%

32%

33%

14%

9%

10%

10%

5%

9%

7%

7%

6%

6%

7%

5%

7%

7%

6%

30%

24%

24%

36%

35%

35%

31%

29%

35%

29%

28%

31%

33%

27%

27%

28%

25%

27%

50%

26%

26%

37%

49%

48%

52%

59%

46%

58%

60%

57%

55%

59%

61%

58%

64%

61%

8%

11%

11%

9%

6%

6%

7%

6%

9%

5%

4%

5%

5%

6%

6%

6%

5%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018


Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Parliament of Ukraine?

68

What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government?

69

12%

7%

6%

10%

3%

1%

6%

5%

4%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

25%

26%

21%

16%

17%

16%

11%

11%

12%

14%

11%

9%

8%

9%

9%

7%

8%

6%

5%

19%

18%

26%

23%

24%

27%

27%

19%

25%

29%

22%

23%

17%

26%

23%

23%

16%

14%

21%

22%

22%

26%

40%

34%

37%

45%

48%

52%

47%

35%

55%

42%

52%

52%

52%

54%

27%

63%

1%

2%

4%

4%

2%

1%

5%

1%

1%

11%

2%

18%

3%

5%

2%

9%

37%

1%

22%

25%

17%

10%

17%

17%

11%

12%

6%

8%

21%

10%

13%

10%

11%

14%

13%

14%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Volodymyr Zelenskyi

Svyatoslav Vakarchuk

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yulia Tymoshenko

Andriy Sadovyi

Vitaliy Klychko

Oleh Lyashko

Yuriy Boyko

Petro Poroshenko

Volodymyr Hroisman


Oleksandr Turchynov

Oleksandr Vilkul

Andriy Parubiy

Arsen Avakov

Oleh Tyahnybok

Viktor Medvedchuk

Ruslan Koshulynskyi

Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Very favorable Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable

Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer

70



Svyatoslav Vakarchuk 46% 33% 24% 48% 36% 23% 20%



Andriy Sadovyi 20% 23% 19% 32% 22% 12% 11%

Vitaliy Klychko 22% 15% 14% 22% 18% 14% 12%

Oleh Lyashko 14% 18% 18% 19% 17% 20% 7%

Yuriy Boyko 12% 14% 21% 7% 13% 21% 30%


Volodymyr Hroisman 15% 17% 15% 23% 15% 8% 14%

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko 10% 12% 13% 19% 11% 7% 8%

Oleksandr Turchynov 10% 11% 9% 17% 6% 4% 13%

Oleksandr Vilkul 7% 10% 12% 4% 9% 18% 9%

Andriy Parubiy 9% 11% 9% 19% 5% 3% 14%

Arsen Avakov 10% 10% 9% 11% 6% 7% 19%

Oleh Tyahnybok 9% 10% 9% 16% 11% 3% 6%

Viktor Medvedchuk 6% 9% 10% 2% 4% 14% 19%

Ruslan Koshulynskyi 6% 9% 9% 16% 8% 2% 4%

Arseniy Yatsenyuk 7% 6% 6% 11% 5% 2% 8%

What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government?

(“Very favorable” and “somewhat favorable” combined; disaggregated by age, region)

Views on Issues

Which three of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?

72

49%

45%

25%

24%

23%

20%

17%

17%

15%

13%

10%

10%

7%

5%

4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Military conflict in Donbas

Corruption within the state bodies

Low industry production

Growth of prices


Political instability

Unemployment

Social protection for the poor

Relations with Russia

Hryvnia devaluation

Healthcare

Russian presence in the Crimea

Crime

Delay in salary/pension payments

Rights to land ownership

Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Environment

Russian language status

Other


(Multiple responses permitted)

Which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally?

73

62%

28%

26%

26%

23%

20%

17%

14%

11%

11%

9%

9%

8%

7%

5%

5%

2%

2%

5%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Growth of prices

Healthcare

Social protection for the poor

Unemployment

Hryvnia devaluation

Military conflict in Donbas

Corruption within the state bodies

Low industry production


Delay in salary/pension payments

Political instability

Crime

Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Rights to land ownership

Relations with Russia

Environment

Russian presence in the Crimea

Russian language status

Other


(Multiple responses permitted)

Foreign Policy Preferences

1%

4%

6%

13%

32%

40%

26%

38%

34%

28%

16%

11%

26%

4%

2%

6%

6%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

United States

European Union

Very warm Warm Neutral Cold Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer

How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?

75

40%41%38%

46%48%44%

51%49%50%47%45%

49%54%

50%47%47%49% 47%

10% 8%

16%22%

11% 9%12%

9% 8% 7%13%

8% 7% 6% 6%10% 8%

13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Warm Cold

24%26%26%

37%41%40%40%39%40%41%

38%42%

47%45%40%40%38%36%

18%16%22%24%

16%13%

18%16%15%15%

19%13%

9% 8%

10% 15%15%20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

52%50%51%

31%

15%17%17%16%18%16%18%18%19%18%18%22%19%

15%12%

15%19%

45%

66%

51%

61%59%58%58%56%56%51%49%48%48%

52%54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

European Union United States

Russia

76

How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?

77

If Ukraine could only enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be?

36%

37%

32%

40%

42%

41%

52%

53%

59%

55%

57%

57%

55%

54%

51%

53%

54%

52%

50%

52%

52%

54%

53%

43%

41%

42%

37%

37%

36%

27%

24%

17%

14%

17%

15%

15%

15%

19%

18%

18%

14%

16%

18%

15%

14%

13%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

9%

6%

10%

9%

12%

12%

12%

14%

12%

14%

14%

8%

9%

10%

15%

17%

16%

14%

17%

17%

20%

18%

17%

14%

14%

13%

15%

20%

14%

16%

15%

19%

17%

15%

20%

24%

24%

14%

16%

16%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer/No answer

78

If Ukraine could only enter one international economic union, which of the following should it be?

84%

77%

74%

67%

60%

57%

50%

26%

13%

52%

36%

3%

8%

6%

6%

13%

13%

8%

40%

35%

8%

12%

4%

5%

6%

11%

7%

12%

15%

21%

36%

12%

26%

9%

11%

14%

16%

20%

18%

26%

13%

16%

28%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

BPP Solidarnist

UKROP

Samopomich

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Sluha Narodu

Radical Party

Opposition Platform

Nashy

Undecided

Would not vote

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Difficult to answer/No answer


If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

79

34%

38%

43%

41%

48%

48%

45%

39%

43%

46%

40%

34%

37%

43%

43%

45%

44%

43%

40%

31%

30%

28%

30%

30%

32%

29%

27%

27%

26%

26%

33%

33%

31%

30%

9%

7%

17%

14%

8%

10%

10%

12%

11%

12%

12%

15%

12%

7%

8%

8%

10%

13%

15%

8%

15%

17%

13%

16%

17%

17%

14%

22%

24%

26%

17%

16%

15%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

November 2015

February 2016

June 2016

September 2016

April 2017

June 2017

September 2017

December 2017

March 2018

June 2018

September 2018

December 2018

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO

Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

80

81%

74%

68%

63%

50%

44%

37%

16%

11%

39%

29%

7%

15%

13%

21%

25%

21%

33%

66%

66%

27%

34%

5%

1%

6%

3%

5%

14%

10%

7%

13%

11%

24%

7%

9%

12%

14%

20%

22%

20%

10%

10%

23%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

BPP Solidarnist

UKROP

Samopomich

Civic Position

Batkivshchyna

Radical Party

Sluha Narodu

Opposition Platform

Nashy

Undecided

Would not vote

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO

Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer


Demographics

Demographics

45%

55%

30%

27%

43%

2%

18%

40%

38%

<1%

44%

35%

16%

1%

4%

24%

2%

13%

6%

27%

4%

7%

5%

5%

5%

1%

67%

33%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Male

Female

18-35

36-50

51+

Primary/Incomplete secondary

General secondary

Vocational secondary

Higher/Incomplete higher

Dificult to answer/No answer

I do not work

Private

State

Public, non-governmental


Worker

Farmer/Peasant

White collar

Higher or medium level executive

Pensioner (not working)

Student

Housewife

Unemployed

Self-employed/Entrepreneur

Other


City

Village

GEN

DER

AG

EED

UCATIO

NSECTO

R O

FEM

PLO

YM

EN

TO

CCU

PATIO

N

SETTLE-

MEN

TTYPE

82

Demographics

47%

31%

22%

89%

8%

3%

1%

37%

19%

9%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

4%

22%

2%

6%

97%

1%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Ukrainian

Russian

Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally

Ukrainian

Russian

Other


Orthodox UPC KP (Kyiv Patriarchate)

Orthodox UPC MP (Moscow Patriarchate)

Greek Catholic

Catholic

Protestant

Judaism

Muslim

Atheist

I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion

Other


None

Member of a political party

Member of an NGO


LAN

GU

AG

ESPO

KEN

AT

HO

ME

NATIO

NALIT

YRELIG

ION

PARTIE

S,

NG

OM

EM

BERSH

IP

83

Demographics

84

13%

32%

37%

11%

3%

<1%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

We need to save money for food

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrowmoney for buying clothes and shoes

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing andshoes, but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases

like a good suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and otherpurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing

more expensive things (e.g. appliances)

We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensivepurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases

like a car or an apartment

I can buy anything at any time


FIN

AN

CIA

L S

TATU

S

www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

Center for Insights in Survey Research

202.408.9450 | [email protected]

http://www.usaid.gov/

http://ratinggroup.ua/en

public opinion survey of residents of ukraine · 2019-12-13 · 4 geographical key *due to the...

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