public opinion strategies is pleased to present key findings · nbc/wsj national survey data. 3 ....

Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys 2

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present key findings

from two national surveys of 800 actual voters conducted on

November 8, 2016. These surveys were merged, for a total of

1,600 actual voters nationally. The margin of error is +2.5%.

Please note: additional data sources are referenced

throughout this presentation, including national exit polls and

NBC/WSJ national survey data.

4 Key Findings: Public Opinion Strategies Election Night Surveys

Now, generally speaking, would you say that things in the COUNTRY are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten

off on the wrong track?

26%

47%

57%

43%

13%

44%

33%

64%

40% 34%

52%

82%

53% 62%

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Right Direction Wrong Track

Mood of the Country—Trend Data

-38% +7% -9% -69% -9% +23%

The majority of voters felt the country was off on the wrong track by a wide margin.

-29%


Now, some people decide early in a campaign how they will vote. Others make their decisions just before the election. When would you

say you made your FINAL decision on which candidate you were going to vote for in the election for President?

A shift did happen in the ballot data as we closed in on the election, one in ten voters made up their mind in the last few days leading up

to the election or on election day.

Presidential Time of Vote Decision-Making 2004 2012 2016

Today/The last few days before the

election 6% 7% 10%

October 10% 14% 14% September 10% 11% 14%

Before September 67% 67% 61%


And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year’s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot

before today, or did you vote at the polls today?

Though, a higher percentage of people continue to move towards a trend of voting early by mail, absentee, or early

polling locations before election day.

Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early 2004 2008 2012 2016

Election Day Voters 75% 66% 61% 60%

Voted Early 24% 33% 36% 40%


And, did you vote by mail or send in an absentee ballot for this year’s elections, did you go to an early polling location to cast a ballot

before today, or did you vote at the polls today?

Democrats voted earlier than they did in 2012 in higher percentages and Republicans are also up within the margin of error.

Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early—By Party

% Election Day Voters % Total Voted Early

Republicans (32%) 61% 37%

Independents (31%) 64% 34%

Democrats (36%) 60% 36%

2012

2016




Democrats (40%) 56% 44%


And, for which of the following candidates did/will you vote for President...

Trump won Election Day voters. Presidential Ballot – Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early


47% 44%

44% 48%

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton


The candidates secured their votes within their bases, with Republicans representing a plurality of the vote, while Clinton

carried Independents by a narrow five points.


Presidential Ballot – Overall & By Party

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

TOTAL 46% 45% Republicans

(43%) 88% 5% Independents*

(15%) 34% 39% Democrats

(40%) 4% 91% *Trump (34%) Clinton (39%) Johnson (15%) Stein (6%) Other (6%)


36% 46% 50% 53% 57% 59% 52% 47% 46% 43%

Mitt Romney Barack Obama

28% 36%

58% 54% 52% 55% 52% 37% 42% 45%

18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ 65+

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton

2012

2016

-23% -6% +3% +7% +14%

-27% -16% +21% +12% +7%


Presidential Ballot—By Age


57% 48%

36% 34% 43%

55%

Republican States Swing States Democratic States


+23% +5% -19%

The swing states decided this election.

Presidential Ballot—By Electoral Map

60% 49% 39% 37%

50% 59%


+23% -1% -20%


2012

2016


55%

8% 24%

36%

86% 67%

Whites African Americans Latinos


+19% -78% -43%

Trump carried Whites by a larger margin than Romney, and Clinton did worse with African Americans and Latinos than Obama.

Presidential Ballot—Ethnicity

57%

6%

26% 41%

93%

72%


+16% -87% -46%


2012

2016


55%

17%

36%

75%

Whites Non-Whites


+19% -58%

Presidential Ballot—By Whites/Non-Whites

57%

21%

41%

77%


+16% -56%


2012

2016


49% 43% 40%

50%

Men Women


+9% -7%


There was a divide by gender, but not as much as 2012.

Presidential Ballot—By Gender

53% 43% 43%

55%


+10% -12%

2012

2016


And, putting aside character or other personal issues for the presidential campaign, what one or two ISSUES were most important to you

when deciding to vote for President?

2004 2008 2012 2016

The Economy/Jobs 28% 52% 57% 30%

Health Care 13% 13% 17% 10%

National/Homeland Security 11% 4% 4% 10%

Immigration/Illegal Immigration NA NA 1% 9%

Foreign Policy 6% 5% 8% 8%

Education 3% 3% 5% 7%

Abortion—Pro-Life 6% 7% 4% 6%

Supreme Court Judges 1% NA 1% 6%

Moral Issues/Values 14% 4% 4% 5%

Taxes 5% 12% 5% 4%

Iraq—Negative 20% 8% NA NA

Most Important Vote Issue For President


58%

22%

54%

22%

57%

21%

55%

17%

41%

78%

45%

77%

41%

77%

36%

75%

Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites Whites Non-Whites

Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate


Presidential Ballot—Trend by Whites/Non-Whites

+17% -56%

November 2004

+9% -55%

November 2008

+16% -56%

November 2012

+19% -58%

November 2016


Among Whites Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 +13% 2004 +17% 2008 +12% 2012 +20% 2016 +21%

Among African Americans Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 -81% 2004 -77% 2008 -91% 2012 -87% 2016 -80%

Among Hispanics/Latinos Net Republican Margin (%Rep-%Dem)

2000 -27% 2004 -9% 2008 -36% 2012 -44% 2016 -36%

*Data from 2000, 2004 and 2008, 2012 Exit Poll data from the presidential elections.

Presidential Ballot By Ethnicity – EXIT POLL DATA


Presidential Ballot Net Difference—By Marital Status and Gender (POS Post Elect Data)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Married Men +20% +21% +9% +22% +22%

Married Women +1% +11% +2% 0% +10%

Unmarried Men -2% -8% -24% -22% -15%

Unmarried Women -31% -25% -29% -31% -30%


Presidential Ballot Net Difference—By Education/Ethnicity/Gender (POS Post Elect Data)

2008 2012 2016

Less Than College White Men +29% +33% +38%

Less Than College White Women +22% +14% +23%

College + White Men +6% +20% +14%

College + White Women -10% -2% -2%


Now, thinking about the elections for U.S. Congress...And, for whom will/did you vote in the election for U.S. Congress in your district?

2016 Congressional Ballot— Overall & By Party

Congressional Ballot – Overall & By Party

The Republican Candidate

The Democratic Candidate

TOTAL 50% 48%



Democrats (40%) 6% 93%



2016 Congressional Ballot— By Election Day Voters vs. Voted Early


The Republican Candidate 51% 48%

The Democratic Candidate 46% 50%


49% 47%

42% 48% 50% 48%

52% 51% 50% 48%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

The Republican Candidate The Democratic Candidate


Our post election national data shows this year was a tight race on the Congressional ballot and similar to where we were in 2000.

Congressional Ballot—Trend Data

+1% -2% -9% -5% +2%

25

PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES 214 N. Fayette St.

Alexandria, VA 22314

Bill McInturff [email protected] | 703.836.7655

Elizabeth Harrington

[email protected] | 215.753.7655

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