public opinion objectives: examine the term public opinion and determine why it is so hard to...

Public Opinion

Objectives:•Examine the term public opinion and determine why it is so hard to define.•Describe factors that shape public opinion.

Bell Ringer:Going beyond the simple explanation of cynicism, speculate about the reasons for the apathy most Americans feel toward their government and officials and their low levels of knowledge about both.

Agenda:Introduction to Public Opinion

Homework:None unless have not finished work in class

Public Opinion


Bell Ringer:Are elections accurate measures of public opinion?

Agenda:Public Opinion

Homework:Chapter 8 Section 2 Assessment #1-7

Public Opinion


Bell Ringer:Political scientist V.O. Key, jr. , once described public opinion as those expressions that governments “find it prudent to heed.” Do you agree with Key’s definition? Explain your answer.

Agenda:Public Opinion

Homework:Use your review guide to study for Friday’s test

Public Opinion

Objectives:•Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and issue polls are used.•Examine polling methods to determine which are most accurate.

Bell Ringer:Complete the “Polling Pre-assessment” handout

Agenda:Types of public opinion pollsUses of public opinion polls

Homework:Use Review Guide to help you study for test

Public Opinion

Objectives:•Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and issue polls are used.•Examine polling methods to determine which are most accurate.

Bell Ringer:How do politicians and the media use public opinion polls? What are the implications of these uses?

Agenda:Public opinion polls

Homework:Remainder of Ch. 7 Overview DueBell Ringer notebooks due 10/29(A) and 10/30 (B)Unit 2 Test (Ch. 4, 5) November 3 (A) and 4 (B)

What is public opinion?

1. Views individuals hold about government, public policy, society, and culture.

Major part of today’s American political landscape.

2. Reflects how people would like government to act.


3. Since 1789, framers and most public officials have had no formal or agreed upon way of determining or

responding to public opinion.

4. May be based on:Facts about problems and solutionsEmotions and crisesBeliefs people adopt through process of political

socialization


5. Role of Elites:Shape mass views by influencing what issues • capture the public attention and how those issues • are debated and decided. State the norms by which issues should be settled Set range of acceptable and unacceptable

6. New classSociologists & political scientists often claim that • there’s a new class of people who benefit from the • power, resources, and growth of government.Constitute new elite that are wealthy because of • their connections with government, not business, as elites previously were.

Characteristics of Public Opinion

Latency: an opinion is held but not expressed

Saliency: degree to which it is important to a particular person or group. 1. Social security high saliency with senior

citizens, lower for younger voters.

Characteristics of Public Opinion

Intensity: how strongly people feel on a certain issue 1. NRA represents a minority position. However,

intensity of their opposition to gun control is high. Many members determine who they’ll vote for in part due to a candidate’s position on gun control. This has made them one of America’s most powerful lobbying organizations.

Stability: How little, or how much, public opinion changes over time

Political socialization

Process through which a person acquires knowledge, a set of political attitudes and orientations, and forms values and opinions about the political system and other social issues.

Agents of Socialization

U.S. is one of the world’s most diverse countries, this makes it especially complex.

Public opinion often skewed to a particular point of view (most in U.S. favor a capitalist economic system)

Other public opinion can be almost equally divided between two extreme positions, generally little middle ground on these issues (Pro-life vs. pro-choice)

Family

• Single most important socializing agent for most Americans

• At home, kids learn basic attitudes toward authority, property, & rules of behavior

Most students see their views as being independent of their parents. In reality, there is still more political agreement between family generations

How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization

School and Peers

Governments use schools in their attempt to instill a commitment to the basic values of the system.

• Schools give children formal knowledge they will need to be good citizens

Schools are also centers of informal learning about other groups in society.

Benevolent Leader

Political socialization phenomenon where children learn that political figures of the U.S. are well-meaning, honest, and trustworthy early in their childhood.

1. Children’s stories of George Washington and Abraham Lincoln

Mass Media

Referred to as “the new parent” 1. T.V. displaces parents as main source of information as kids get older 2. T.V. most common source of political information

Mass Media

Selective perception: notion that people tend to see only what they want to see

Selective retention: idea that people remember what they agree with

Social Groups Political efficacy is the feeling that:

one can understand government and effectively participate in it

government will respond to citizens’ demands

dependent on the factors below 1. more important seems to be education: the

higher the education, the higher the efficacy.

Effects of Diversity

Demographic patterns determined every ten years when the census is conducted

Religion

Generally Jews more liberal than Catholics, who are more liberal than Protestants

Jews and Black Protestants tend to be the most liberal White Protestants tend to be more conservative (especially in the south)

Many agree with separation of church and state

Ethnicity

Blacks tend to be more liberal

Asians and Hispanics are a little less liberal

Blacks and Asians are more likely to vote than whites of their same income level

Cubans tend to be more conservative

Many immigrants arrive from all over the world each year (government allows 630,000 new legal

immigrants per year)

Ethnicity

• The Immigrant Society– United States is a nation of immigrants.– Three waves of immigration:

• Northwestern Europeans (prior to late 19th Century)

• Southern and eastern Europeans (late 19th and early 20th centuries)

• Hispanics and Asians (late 20th century)

Ethnicity

• The American Melting Pot– Melting Pot: the mixing of cultures, ideas,

and peoples that has changed the American nation

– Minority Majority: the emergence of a non-Caucasian majority

– Political culture is an overall set of values widely shared within a society.

The American People

Gender

Women favor government programs promoting equality more than men.

More likely to support government social welfare programs, less likely to support increases in

military spending

No set gender generalizations, differences between men/women typically issue specific.

Age

Younger people typically vote less, not really involved in/knowledgeable about politics.

Senior citizens population growing tend to be vocal and lobby for particular issues

1. Social Security System is second only to national defense as America’s most costly public policy.

Age

• The Graying of America– Fastest growing age group is over 65– Potential drain on Social Security

•Pay as you go system•In 1942, 42 workers per retiree•In 2040, 2 workers per retiree

Age

• Political Learning Over a Lifetime– Aging increases political participation and

strength of party attachment.

Region

Mountain states and Midwest generally more conservative

Eastern and Western states typically more liberal

Southerners generally more conservative (because of civil rights issues)

Region

• The Regional Shift– Population shift

from east to west– Reapportionment:

the process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census

Education In general, the higher the level of education

attained, the higher one’s awareness and understanding of politics and political issues

More education an individual receives, the more likely that person is to hold liberal political positions

More education = more likely to vote, more tolerant of opposing opinions

Income Divides people on their opinions: higher

income, more likely to value freedom and less government control

Higher income often more supportive of liberal goals like racial & sexual equality

Poor white voters LEAST likely to vote in a typical election

Personal Beliefs

Americans more “me-oriented” than ever

Agree with things that benefit us, disagree with those that don’t

When policies don’t affect us personally, hard for us to form an opinion

Political Knowledge

Everyone has “opinions” on politics, most people, however don’t know any “facts”

1. Speaker of the House

2. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court

3. Where other countries are located (Iraq, China, El Salvador)

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

Cues From Leaders

With lack of knowledge public opinion can be highly changeable at times

1. Rapid shifts are common when the public doesn’t have much information or when the information that they have is bad.

Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information

Public Opinion Polls

Can be measured in different ways and the accuracy of the opinion depends on the measurement

Public opinion is measured regularly through elections. Only measures it indirectly since voters are not always for, but sometimes against a candidate.

Public Opinion Polls•4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend Product X.

•If the election were held tomorrow, 43% of likely voters would vote for Roberta Jones.

•85% of all Americans prefer Brand Q over Brand Y.

•66% of parents surveyed think their children watch too much television.

Where might you here or read a quote like this?

What types of groups would be interested in information like this?

What are some different ways groups could use this information?

How might you be influenced if you read this quote?

Public Opinion Polls

Modern-day polling tends to be moderately accurate

“John Q. Public” thought to be the average man or woman on the streets. Term used by the media and pollsters when making blanket statements about the general

opinion in the U.S.

Random/Representative Sample Polls

Everyone in the target population has an equal probability of being selected

Questions used are non-biased & do not give respondents any clues about what answers poll is looking for.

Many polls conducted through telephone and computer surveys

Telephone Polling

Cluster sampling: groups drawn by geographical divisions (counties, districts)

•Random digit dialing: people over eighteen with birthdays in a certain month are asked to complete a questionnaire

Telephone Polling

Quota sample: less reliable polling method in which members of a particular group are

interviewed in proportion to the group’s percentage of the population as a whole.

More costly than nonrandom polls, but results are more reliable

Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3 points)

1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actual results could be 42 or 48%

Telephone PollingQuota sample (continued)

Assuming the U.S. adult population is targeted group, sample size usually between 1,200 and 1,500 respondents

1. As polling techniques become more advanced, typical sample sizes decreasing

Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3 points)

1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actual results could be 42 or 48%

Nonrandom Polls

Not reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However:

•Straw polls: unscientific attempts to measure public opinion. Often used by print and television news media, internet, even members of Congress.

1. Results not reliable because there is no guarantee that the group or sample answering question is representative of whole population.

Nonrandom Polls

Not reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However:

Many candidates rely on nonrandom polls quickly conducted by their party.

Members of Congress often rely on letters, phone calls, e-mails to indicate public opinion on some issues. 1. Only represents views of people motivated

enough to contact legislators.

Nonrandom Polls

Way questions are worded can significantly influence reflected opinions.

1. “Slanting” questions to get the answers they want.

Political PollsPush Polls

Attempt to lead subject to a specified conclusion

Some designed to ‘push’ subjects away from candidates by linking them to negative events or traits in the question

Political PollsTracking Polls

Continuous surveys that enable candidates and politicians to chart daily rise and fall in popularity

Small samples

Reliability problems but may be a decent measure of trends

Political PollsExit Polls

Used by media to find out how people voted &why

Not random or representative, but if a large enough proportion of voters is polled, responses can form basis for some generalizations.

Reliability problems but may be a decent measure of trends

Use of Polls

Informing the public

•Some officials closely follow public opinion and use it in making policy decisions

Informing the candidate

Informing office-holders

Making election night predictions

•Others don’t trust it because it can change quickly and dramatically

Shortcomings of Polls

In 1936, a Literary Digest poll underestimated the vote for FDR by 19% because of flawed polling.

They drew their sample from phone books and motor vehicle records. During the Great Depression, people on those lists typically above the average income level, and therefore not representative of the public.

Role of PollsSupporters

Allows people to express their approval or disapproval of government

Tool for democracy by which policymakers can keep in touch with changing opinions

Shortcomings of Polls

Sampling error

Limited respondent options (narrow answer base)

Lack of information (respondents don’t understand question)

Intensity (learn people’s positions, but not how strong or weak it is)

Elitism (deliberative polls have been accused of bias)

Role of PollsCritics

Makes politicians more concerned with following than leading.

Political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg argues polls weaken democracy because they let government think that it has taken public opinion into account when only passive (often ill-informed) opinions have been counted.

“Bandwagon effect”: possible tendency of some voters or convention delegates to support the candidate who is leading in the polls and seems most likely to win.

Role of PollsCritics

Drown out actual issues during elections.

Pollsters get results they want by altering wording of the questions.

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