PUBLIC OPINION AND PARTICIPATION

Topics #30-33

Study Guide Questions• What normative prescriptions does democratic theory

make about citizens’ level of information about, understanding of, and participation in politics and public affairs?

• As an empirical matter, how well do you think typical citizens actually meet these normative prescriptions?

• On what sorts of political issues do you think Americans mostly agree? On what sorts of issues do think may there be quite profound and intense disagreement among Americans?

Studying Public Opinion

• Tocqueville studied American political culture and public opinion in 1830 through travel, observation, and conversation.– He found a “Lockean liberal consensus.”

• Other observers, journalists, and politicians studied public opinion in like manner for the next 100 years.

• About 75 years ago, a new and more systematic method was developed to study public opinion.

Survey Research (Polling)• Survey research (polling) – two steps (see K&J, Box p.

386):– Select a (descriptively) representative sample of the

public.• This can be done by selecting a random sample of the public

(in the manner of “election by lot” for a “sample assembly”). • The mathematical laws of probability assure us that the

sample will be a (descriptively) representative sample of the public (cf. sample assembly/election by lot),

– with a margin of error that depends on the size of the sample.– But even small samples (e.g., 1500-2500) have quite small

(e.g., ± 3%) margins of error.• It takes fairly elaborate procedures to select a random

sample.• Work hard to get a high response rate.

– Interview respondents (over the phone or, preferably, in person) using

• a standard questionnaire• with carefully designed and unbiased questions.

Survey Research and Polling (cont.)

• Commercial Polls:– Gallup Poll, etc.– Media polls– Exit polls– Political consultants

• Academic/scientific surveys:– American National Election Studies (U. of Michigan)– General Social Survey (U. of Chicago)

• 50+ years of polling and survey research allows us to see patterns over time,– for example, with respect to Presidential approval (cf. Neustadt’s

“public prestige”).

Presidential Approval

• “Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?”

• “Honeymoon Effect”

• “Rally Round the Flag Effect”

• “Coalition of Minorities Effect”

Obama Presidential Approval

Historical Presi-dential

Approval

Honeymoon Effect

Rally Round the Flag Effect

Coalition of Minorities

Effect

Overview of Public Opinion• Elite vs. mass opinion

• Most members of the mass public don’t pay much attention to politics, and consequently– are relatively poorly informed about politics (see K&J, Box on p. 394).– Many responses to questions may be almost random. – Nevertheless aggregate public opinion responds to events (and elite

discussion) in a fairly rational way.• Presidential approval (previous slides and K&J, p. 391)• Women and minorities as Presidential candidates (previous slides

and K&J, p. 399)• Defense spending (next slide and K&J, p. 399)

• General political information doesn’t have much “payoff” for most members of the mass public.– But they may be attentive and well informed about issues that affect

them directly.– Specialized and asymmetric information.

Overview of Public Opinion (cont.)

• The American public displays

– a relatively high degree of constitutional consensus, • reflecting the “Lockean liberal consensus” (Topic

#29), though– it often don’t exhibit (in polls) a strong commitment to civil

liberties for unpopular groups, but also

– a relatively high degree policy dissensus on certain issues, but

• with little inclination for large-scale redistributive (compared with European public opinion).

– Recall: emphasis on equality of opportunity vs. equality of results (Topic #29: American Political Culture)

Public Opinion on Defense Spending

Group Affiliation and Conflict

• Opinion on issues often reflects people’s group affiliations– Economic status:

• Vertical (class, income, SES, etc.)

• Horizontal (sector, industry)

– Other demographic characteristics:

• region• urban vs. rural

(districting examples)• race/ethnicity• religion, etc.

Reinforcing vs. Crosscutting Affiliations and Opinions

Reinforcing vs. Crosscutting Opinions (cont.)

• Actual societies have multiple lines of conflict.

• Consequences of reinforcing vs. crosscutting pattern:– The reinforcing pattern patterns is characterized by

• two large groups with • conflicting opinions all issues.• Your “enemy” on one issue is also your “enemy” on other

issues.– The crosscutting pattern is characterized by

• a multiplicity of small groups, • none of which close to majority size, and• any two of which agree on some issues and disagree on

others.• Your “enemy” on one issue may be your “friend” on other

issues.

Reinforcing vs. Crosscutting Opinions (cont.)

• The reinforcing pattern therefore produces– polarization and conflict, and perhaps either

• a majority faction (Madison, Fed. 10), or• political instability and civil war.

• The crosscutting pattern, in contrast, produces– a multiplicity of minority factions (Madison, Fed. 10),– which must form coalitions to attain majority size, and

• to do this, they must moderate their goals.– Moreover, coalitions shift from issue to issue, so

• each group sometimes wins and sometimes loses.• U.S. vs. Northern Ireland

Elite vs. Mass Opinion

• Party affiliation and identification– Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a

Democrat, an Independent, or what? [If partisan] Would you call yourself a strong Republican/Democrat or a not very strong Republican/Democrat? [If Independent] Do you think of yourself as closer to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

– About 95% of the mass public identify themselves as Democratic, Republican, or Independent.

– Follow-up question:• strong vs. weak partisans,• independent leaners.

• Ideology:– We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives.

Where would you place yourself in these terms, or haven’t you thought much about this?

– About 25% of the mass public “haven’t thought much about this.”

Party Identification: 1952-2004

Party Identification “Colors” Presidential Approval (and other opinions)

Ideology at the Mass Level

At the Elite Level, Party ID and Ideology Are Now Almost Perfectly Reinforcing

Party ID and Ideology at the Mass Level

• Note the anomaly:– more Democrats than Republicans, but– more conservatives than liberals.

Ideology at the Mass Level

• Abortion and Health Insurance opinions are crosscutting

Ideology at the Mass LevelEconomic/New Deal Issues

vs. Social/Cultural/”Family Values” Issues

Opinion Intensity, Participation, and (Local or National) Representation

Permissive Public Opinion:Most Legislation

Governing Public Opinion:Bills that are Not Even Introduced

Polarized Public Opinion:Abortion? (Probably Not Really)

Intense Minority Public Opinion: Special Interest (Distributive) Politics

Majoritarian Politics: Presidential Politics/Redistributive Issues

Interest Group (Factional) Politics