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Public Opinion Activity (POA)

AID-514-A-16-00004

Final Report # 22

January 2016 – July 2021

Submitted to: Sol Alejandra Gaitan, Agreement Officer’s Technical Representative

USAID/COLOMBIA

Submitted by: Universidad de Los Andes

August 30th, 2021

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Table of Contents

I. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 4

II. Accomplishments .............................................................................................................. 5

Component 1: Research and technical activities ........................................................................ 5

A. Survey Research ....................................................................................................................... 5

B. Qualitative Research ................................................................................................................ 6

C. Digital Observatorio: #Política&Redes ................................................................................... 9

Management report ............................................................................................................. 11

Capacity Building ................................................................................................................ 11

Personnel...................................................................................................................................... 12

Students........................................................................................................................................ 12

Other audiences ........................................................................................................................... 12 Sustainability……………………………………………………………………………...12 Visibility……………………………………………………………………………………13

Component 2: Communications and Dissemination................................................................ 13

Project Audit ............................................................................................................................... 14

III. Next Quarter Activities ................................................................................................. 14

IV. Budget Execution .......................................................................................................... 15 POA 2016 - 2021 .................................................................................................................................... 15

Annexes General Indicator by year Inphografic POA Report

OD Observatorio de la Democracia OIM Organización Internacional para las Migraciones

LAPOP Latin American Public Opinion Project UNDP United Nations Development Programme PDET Programas de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial

SSRC Social Sciences Research Council EGAP Evidence in Governance and Politics COLEV Interdisciplinary group at Universidad de Los Andes about COVID19 IDRC International Development Research Center SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SENA Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje CONPES Consejo Nacional de Política Económica y Social

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I. Executive Summary

Since its foundation, back in 2006, the Observatorio de la Democracia de la Universidad de los Andes has become a national reference for survey and public opinion research. Between 2016 and 2021, thanks to USAID’s support through the Public Opinion Activity (POA), the Observatorio fulfilled its task of continuing and analyzing the general public opinion on social and political topic based on surveys and other analytic tools. As a result, the Observatorio is currently the main reference for public opinion studies related to social and political issues in Colombia.

During these five and a half years the Observatorio succeded to complete three nationally representative surveys and three special samples. Two of the national studies where part of the Vanderbilt’s University Barómetro de las Américas project. The 2017 national special studies focused on post conflict municipalities and the 2019 national special studies focused on PDET municipalities. In 2020 we conducted a survey in three High Level Dialogue municipalities (Sardinata, Cáceres y

Tumaco). Additionally, during these years the OD developed new lines of work. Since 2017, we complemented the public opinion studies using focus groups. As a result, we were able to have a qualitative approach to different subjects such as reconciliation, former combatants, public services and the crisis of public trust in the Colombian National Police. Another line of work of the Observatorio has to do with the study of social and political debates in social media using big data.

The regular activities of the Observatorio where complemented by a consistent and successful communications strategy that allowed different audiences to have a clear view of academic research on public opinion. Thanks to this strategy, the data and results obtained by the OD has been used by media outlets, law makers, public officials and by a large group of citizens as a fundamental input for their own lines of work.

It is important to highlight that the Observatorio de la Democracia was able to expand its capacity during these years while performing the above-mentioned activities. Today, we have a wide range of reseach and consultancy projects. These projects include the evaluation of different programs such as: Colombia Transforma (OTI / USAID), Colombia’s early childhood policy (Alianza Primero lo

Primero) and the Innovaciones Policiales para la Estabilización (OIM) program. From a reseach point of view the Observatorio is currently participating in a project about COVID-19 and vaccines and the 2021 Colombia Barómetro de las Américas.

The main contributions of the POA are focused on the following subjects: peace and post conflict, democracy and state institutions and gender. Regarding peace we brought together a unique body of knowledge. Only the Observatorio de la Democracia has done a detailed follow up on the evolution of Colombians opinions about the peace process and its components, reconciliation and the reincorpotation of former combatants. Something similar occurs with the public mood on institutions and gender, subjects that where deeply studied by the OD. Our knowledge on these topics contribute to identify the challenges that our democracy is facing and the obstacles Colombia has to overcome in order to consolidate a more equitable society.

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Due to the end of USAID’s support, the Observatorio de la Democracia faces big challenges. First, it has to continue to be a referent on public opinion studies by using multiple methodologies; then it has to guarantee its financial sustainability. Based on these challenges, the OD has a 5-year projection in which it will procure to maintain its link with the Barómetro de las Américas. It will also pursue to diversify its activities without losing the focus on studying public opinion. We will continue executing a strategy that allow us to obtain new financial resources by developing reseach and consultancy projects. Also, with the Facultad de Ciencias Sociales support and other partners we expect to sustain a dissemination strategy. Finally, during the following five years we expect to do reseach using different and diverse methodological approaches on the following subjects: peace, reconciliation and state building, the crisis of trust in democracy and public institutions, the right wing, the political manipulation of public opinion and gender issues. The profound understanding of these subjects is crucial to the future and sustainability of our democracy.

II. Accomplishments Component 1: Research and technical activities A. Survey Research During the period 2016-2021, we completed three nationally representative surveys (2016, 20118, 2020) and three special samples (2017, 2019 and 2020). This set of studies involved 12,643 interviews all over Colombia and answers to 664 different survey questions. Through this effort we built a unique repository of public opinion data about the functioning of democratic institutions, citizen security, attitudes towards peace and reconciliation and many other topics. Some of the main findings are:

- We witnessed the decline in public trust towards public institutions and a reduction of the levels of satisfaction with democracy. In the opposite direction, participation in protests increased.

- Approval for the Peace Accords with the FARC remained stable over the period of analysis; however opinions on the main posvisions included in the agreement are not homogenous. Public approval is majoritarian for programs that may benefit local communities. In contrast, only a minority approves those components that benefit former combatants.

- Public attitudes towards the Peace Agreement are modeled by political elites and influenced by political polarization.

- As time passes, forgiveness and reconciliation with FARC ex-combatants is seen as more likely, just as the possibility of interacting with them in the everyday life.

- Regions affected by the armed conflict are the most hopeful about peace. However, they are as skeptic about the functioning of democracy.

As we completed each study, we reached several achievements conducting survey research: - We adopted strict quality control protocols allowing us to identify poor quality surveys in

real time and to replace them with new interviews that satisfy our quality standards. - We implemented various survey experiments and experimental studies along with regular

interviews to identify the determinants of key attitudes with improved accuracy. - We adapted survey samples, questions wording, and survey technologies to challenging

situations (i.e., conflict areas, limited interview time and the pandemic context). - Our experience conducting general population studies allowed us to undertake new studies

of particular populations: female journalist, beneficiaries of early childhood services, and police officials.

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The technical work completed during the past five years had an impact in several realms: - We collected high quality public opinion information, comparable across time and cross-

nationally. Along the years, we coordinated research efforts with our partners at the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP). We benefited from their experience and the possibility to compare Colombian public opinion with other national contexts.

- Lessons learned studying public opinion with national surveys was transferred to study conflict affected areas in Colombia. This brought high quality data collection to new contexts, also allowing us to put them in perspective through comparisons with the national context.

- Intensive hands-on experience made this activity a great training space for numerous researchers and students. Lessons learned are being replicated beyond the work done by the Observatorio de la Democracia. In addition, our work is a model for researchers and practitioners interested in measuring public opinion in Colombia.

Going forward, having a repository of Colombian public opinion offers a unique opportunity to continue this cumulative effort. The achievements of this activity set the starting point to keep track of critical attitudes for the functioning of Colombian democracy and the evolving challenges faced by the country. However, the main challenge we face is to sustain this effort in the future financially, but also to continue using our good practices on conducting survey research. In terms of content, future projects ought to keep on asking about key attitudes and opinions we explored in the past, but also include new topics to keep track of emerging social and political problems. Academic achievements During 2020, we lead a special issue of the Journal of Politics in Latin America devoted to study the ongoing peace process in Colombia using data collected by this activity. Also in 2020, we completed a study about gender violence against female journalists for the NGO “No es Hora de Callar”, we reviewed for UNDP their index of territorial democracy, and we began a study on public opinion about the provision of daycare services and we launched an activity to design an evaluation of the Police Innovations Program at IOM. Researchers from Observatorio de la Democracia are also contributing with chapters in two edited volumes about public opinion in the peace process and the link betwen public opinion and reconciliation in Colombia. We also participate with a paper in a special number of the Journal of Conflict Resolution on citizens in peace processes. During this activity we also continued a strong relationship with our partners at Vanderbilt University. That allowed us to be part of the continental Barómetro de las Américas project, and to host in 2019 the international conference “The Public and Democracy” in Bogotá. Financial achievements We received additional funding from non USAID sources to complete various additional projects. In 2019, the study on PDET municipalities receive extra funds of USD$80,000, from University of California, Berkeley to increase the sample size which reached 4,000 individuals. To complete the study on gender violence against female journalists we received around USD$2,000. We also received USD$50,000 from Primero Lo Primero to fund the study on early childhood education, $5,000 to review the territorial democracy index for UNDP, and around $20,000 for the IOM evaluation design. These new projects take advantage of lessons learned throughout the last five years, while expanding our support network and thematic scope. B. Qualitative Research The main accomplishments of the qualitative component of Observatorio de la Democracia are: (i) a qualitative repository containing information from 59 focus groups conducted in 20 different municipalities of Colombia; (ii) the development of methodological standards for the analysis of cualitative data that can be replicated to ensure high-quality reports; and (iii) analytical reports that

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provide research insights on diverse topics, including reconciliation, gender, institutional trust, social leaders and citizen security.

The qualitative component started in 2018 with the focus groups conducted to deepen comprehension on the results of the Special Sample 2017 Rural Post-Conflict Colombia. Since then, the OD continued collecting qualitative data in municipalities that were part of the yearly surveys to enrich public opinion findings with qualitative insights.

Table 1 shows the number of focus groups conducted for each study, as well as its methodological characteristics and the municipalities visited in each case. The selection of municipalities for the focus groups was based on the following criteria: (i) municipalities that were part of the quantitative sample; (ii) heterogeneity according to the variables considered for the survey sample design (e.g. regional, state capacity, conflict exposure); and (iii) municipalities where the OD had not previously conducted qualitative research.1 It is important to highlight that the first two years the focus groups were conducted face-to-face, but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the last two rounds of data collection were held virtually.

The transcripts of all focus groups were systematized in a standardized way using NVivo software. For each round of data collection specific codebooks were designed according to the particularities of the study.

Table 1. Qualitative repository of the Observatorio de la Democracia

Study Sessions Methodological characteristics Municipalities

Rural Post-Conflict Colombia 2017

16

Face-to-face

4 per municipality (gender/age)

Puerto Libertador, Buenaventura, Santander de Quilichao, San Vicente del Caguán

Americas’ Barometer 2018 16

Face-to-face

4 per municipality (gender/age)

Cali, Bogotá, Sampués, San Martín

Colombia, a country beyond the conflict 2019

17*

Virtual

2 per municipality (gender)

PDET

• Higher State Capacity: Chaparral, Ciénaga

• Lower State Capacity: Zambrano, Mesetas

No PDET

1 The only exception is Bogotá, visited both in 2018 and 2020. The reason for this is that the 2020 study had a special focus on public protests and Bogotá was definately a relevant municipality to include to explore this topic.

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Study Sessions Methodological characteristics Municipalities

• Higher State Capacity: Victoria, Puerto Berrío

• Lower State Capacity Villanueva, Concordia*

Colombia, a country in the midst of the pandemic 2020

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Virtual

2 per municipality (gender)

Bogotá, Medellín, Bucaramanga, Villavicencio y Barranquilla

Total 59

Methodological standards

The qualitative unit of the OD developed methodological standards for the analysis of qualitative data to ensure high-quality reports. These procedures can be replicated by any researcher and with any kind of qualitative data. The main findings derived from the qualitative component of OD are the following:2

- Colombians define reconciliation as forgiveness, and this concept has meaning in three specific domains: social, interpersonal, and individual.

- Negative attitudes towards former combatants derive from the stigma that they are dangerous or evil persons, and from beliefs about threats that could arise from being near ex-combatants. However, some citizens hold positive attitudes that are grounded either on positive experiences with former combatants or beliefs about the right of ex-combatants to have a second chance.

- Compared to men, women have less favorable attitudes towards peace and the peace agreement. These attitudes seem to be explained by womens’ closer experiences with violence, victims, and suffering; a more salient perception about the social injustice; and the belief that the peace agreement serves the interests of specific actors, and not of those of most vulnerable.

- The crisis of popular trust on public institutions seems to be explained by a perception of poor performance of public institutions, particularly in terms of access and quality of services. Also, corruption scandals further erode institutional trust.

- Social leaders tend to be perceived by their communities as charismatic, caring, and dedicated persons. They are perceived as people who work in benefit of their communities -defending natural resources or protecting human rights.

Given that conducting rigorous qualitative analysis is time-consuming, there is more information on the repository than the amount of references the qualitative team was physically able to process and analyze. In consequence, some topics included in the repository are yet to be explored. Examples of these topics are gender roles, psychological well-being in conflict affected areas, opinions towards public protests and attitudes towards Venezuelan migrants.

2 Further details can be found at: https://obsdemocracia.org/publicaciones/cualitativo/.

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However, considering that the OD has developed standardized methodological procedures for qualitative analysis, and that it is immersed in an education environment, there are plenty of opportunities to explore the rest of the qualitative data.

Thanks to our outreach strategy and the innovations done by the Observatorio in processing large amounts of qualitative data, we were approached by USAID-OTI project Colombia Transforma to help them systematize their qualitative data. As of today, we are in the process of implementing the second evaluation hired by OTI to the Observatorio.

In different occasions the qualitative team was invited to share their findings with policy makers and practitioners. For example, the study on the gender gap in attitudes towards the peace agreement was shared with USAID’s Programa Alianzas para la Reconciliación implemented by ACDI-VOCA. Similarly, results from the study on citizens’ stigmas, beliefs, and experiences towards ex-combatants were shared with the National Govenrment’s Agencia para la Reincorporación y la Normalización.

Academic achievements: A study about gender difference towards the peace agreement was presented in an academic panel hosted by USAID’s Programa Alianzas para la Reconciliación implemented by ACDI-VOCA. As a result of the academic event, the study became chapter of the upcoming book entitled Reconciliación

en Colombia y el mundo: ¿quién, cómo y cuándo?

Financial achievements: Thanks to our outreach strategy and the innovations done by the OD in processing large amounts of qualitative data, we were approached by USAID-OTI project Colombia Transforma to help them systematize their qualitative data. A first agreement of USD $20,000 was signed to analyze results from infrastructure projects provided by the Program in conflict regions. As of today, we are in the process of implementing the second evaluation (estimated value of USD $65,000) hired by OTI to the Observatorio.

C. Digital Observatorio: #Política&Redes During the third quarter of 2019, the Observatorio de la Democracia started a research project on public opinion in social media using computational methods. Later, this project was consolidated as an area of OD called #Política&Redes. This project aims to contribute, with a Latin American perspective, to the ongoing discussion about the impact of social media use on the public debate and, more generally, on the quality of democracy. At first, #Política&Redes focused on the local political discussion on Twitter. As time went by, we started to use other sources of information, such as Facebook and digital news sites. Since 2020 our focus shifted to understanding misinformation regarding Covid-19 in Colombia. During these two years, the area grew beyond our expectations. We faced some challenges, specifically related to computational power, data access, and the possibility to work with people with expertise in such a new field.

Research Reports: #Política&Redes operates as a research lab where we formulate research questions and try to answer them using computational methods and the available data. The results of these endeavors are published as short research reports on our webpage. The topics covered by these reports are:

1. The behavior of political leaders on Twitter during the campaign for the 2016 Colombian peace agreement plebiscite.

2. The behavior of Alvaro Uribe’s supporters and opponents on Twitter during the judicial hearing against him.

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3. Dissemination of misinformation about medicines during the first months of the Covid-19 crisis.

4. The framing of the notion of reconciliation on traditional Colombian media over the last three years.

5. Opinions of Twitter users about the police during the #21N national strikes and how they changed in response to their behavior.

6. The number of publications about vaccines against Covid-19 on Facebook over time. Academic achievements: During the first quarter of 2021, we closed our study of “Dynamics of political news sharing on Facebook in Latin America.” As a result, we co-authored a paper with Gabriel Vommaro (Universidad Nacional de San Martin), Gabriel Kessler (Universidad Nacional de la Plata), Paulo Ortellado (University of Sao Paulo), Juan Pablo Luna (Universidad Catolica de Chile), and others, that shows the comparative results of this research. The paper is currently under revision for publication on Political Communication, a high-impact journal. The preprint can be found here. We have also been admitted to have a panel at the next national Political Science conference organized by the Colombian Political Science Association. The panel will include four different papers where we study the relationship between social media and politics. The papers are on: (i) conspirative theories related to Covid-19, (ii) misinformation about vaccines against Covid-19, (iii) the interactions and behaviors of Latin American lawmakers on Twitter, and (iv) the behavior of right-wing politicians and influencers on Twitter. Technological infrastructure and data access: Conducting computational research on the digital debate requires permission from social media platforms to access their data and computational power to perform big-data extraction and analysis. At the early stages of the project, we only had access to public API from Twitter. Later, Facebook granted us access to use CrowdTangle, a Facebook-owned tool to study public content on Facebook and Instagram; Condor, a dataset of URLs that circulated worldwide in Facebook with the aggregated data concerning the types of people who interacted with these links; COVID-19 Twitter’s API endpoint which allowed us to stream tweets related to Covid19 in real-time; and Academic Research product track, which provides us access to all historical and real-time public Twitter data. All of these tools were obtained after application processes. In addition, we also used Mediacloud, an open-access tool that allows us to download headlines from online media, and Prensanet, a paid platform that monitors national press. For the computational power front, we bought a MacBook pro and were granted access to the Universidad de Los Andes’ High-Performance Computer. Finally, we developed a webpage to host our research reports since the primary site of Observatorio de la Democracia did not have the capabilities to host the interactive data visualizations with which we wanted to show our results.

Capacity building: During the two semesters of 2020, we conducted the “Programming for social sciences research lab,” a space open to undergrad students where we taught the basics of Python programming and computational social sciences methods using this language. We trained 16 students, and six of them participated in #Política&Redes as junior research assistants afterwards. At least four of them have kept studying formally or informally computational methods for the social sciences, and three of them have used the knowledge acquired during the research lab in other classes, their degree thesis, or their first jobs. To broaden the impact of the lab, we published a public repository on Github where anyone can find the study material of the lab sessions. Our Github page also contains several public repositories with open-source code useful for digital research.

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Financial achievements: On November 2020, #Política&Redes obtained a $5,000 grant from the Social Sciences Research Council (SSRC) to identify the different types of information and misinformation circulating in social media regarding a Covid-19 vaccine. In February 2021, we got a $10,000 grant from Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) to complement this study with an experimental survey, which will allow us to determine the effect of false information regarding Covid-19 vaccines on the Colombians’ intention to get vaccinated. Finally, in March we built an alliance with Colev, an interdisciplinary group at Universidad de Los Andes, funded by the International Development Research Center (IDRC) and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA). Colev studies AI and data science-based strategies to inform public health responses to COVID-19 in Colombia. We contribute to this project as part of the team that analyzes popular social networks to identify common reactions to policies and events of social relevance, as well as critical users that act as ‘super spreaders’ for information and misinformation diffusion. Colev contributes to #Política&Redes, covering the monthly salary of a senior researcher for at least ten months (approximately $ 20,000).

These grants and alliances have given #Política&Redes the opportunity to continue its work for at least the remaining of 2021, hiring two full-time researchers and one part-time research assistant.

Management report

Over the past five years the Observatorio de la Democracia management coordination was crucial for the proper operation of the project. The activities of this area contributed to the implementation of the Public Opinion Activity (POA) according to the terms defined by USAID and the commitments acquired in the agreement and in the annual work plans.

The main goal of the Observatorio’s management team was to provide the logistical, and financial resources required for the implementation of the agreement. This team was also in charge of the quarterly reports and of the Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Plan (AMELP).

The Observatorio’s management team was composed by the Deputy Chief of Party and the administrative coordinator. However, this team received support from a unit within Universidad de

Los Andes devoted to give administrative support to research and consulting projects. Along with this unit, the management team keep tack of the budget, prepared financial reports and monthly advances, and managed contacts and other administrative task related with POA. The management team also received support from the the internal audit office of Universidad de los Andes. The closeout stage of POA requires the execution of an important number of administrative tasks. Among them are preparing a final report and a final progress report, based on our progress indicators. The last report will be uploaded to MONITOR. The management team is also compiling administrative and technical documents that will be uploaded to the DEC and DDL platforms. In addition to the aforementioned activities, the administrative team gives administrative support to the other projects conducted by the Observatorio. Therefore, this unit is contributing to our future sustainability.

Capacity Building During the last five years, the Observatorio de la Democracia has been committed to build capacity in several areas and dimensions

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Personnel No matter if they were junior professionals, proffesors, graduate students, undergraduates or part of the administrate team, all of those who worked for the Observatorio over the past years were strengthened professionally and academically, which contribute to boost their carrers. OD members were characterized by embracing their duties with dedication and mystique, as they felt were part of relevant. Several members of the original team continue working with us, others left only to quickly ask to return, and others undertook other jobs or graduate programs for which the experience at the OD proved highly valuable. Students During the past three years, the OD has entertained a workshop intended for undergraduate students to become involved in research activities within the Political Science Department at Universidad de

los Andes. On some occasions, the workshop was devoted to teaching students techniques for the analysis of public opinion data from our surveys. On yet other occasions, the workshop directly enrolled students in the day-to-day activities in research and communications or trained them to analyze big data. The one semester-long stay allowed students not only to get academic credit but also to obtain valuable experience in the different theoretical, substantive, and methodological aspects of being an observatory of public opinion in Colombia. Many of the students kept linked to the OD after their semester in the workshop. Other audiences During the past five years, the OD kept an eye open in trying to convey to the public —including public officials, political actors, and the media— the best practices in dealing with public opinion data. We were particularly emphatic in the importance of gathering information in the most rigorous way in order to be able to validly infer conclusions about the Colombian citizens’ attitudes, perceptions, and opinions from survey data. We also underlined the centrality of disseminating results by both extracting as many information as possible from the data and conveying the accurate levels of uncertainty that are inherent to any statistical endeavor such as ours. This last point was especially relevant in trying to educate the media in their reporting of our results. After these five-year agreement with USAID, the OD is up to the challenge not only of keeping the highest standards in public opinion data collection, analysis, and dissemination, but also of sticking to our mission of building capacities around us to contribute to the enhancement of the public debate on citizens’ perceptions on Colombia’s. polity, politics, and policy. Sustainability Over the past five years the Observatorio de la Democracia has become a more sustainable research center, to the point that part of our operation for the next year is covered by external funding. Our current sustainability relies on the fact that the OD consolidated an expertise on survey design and research, qualitative analysis, social media analysis and impact evaluation. Thus, today we have a know-how and a diversified portfolio of services that contribute to our ability to attract external funding. Our expertise and recognition on survey research allowed us to win various projects that involve mapping public opinion on topics as diverse as gender violence, early childhood education, or Covid vaccines. Our unique approach to qualitative data gathering and analysis convinced OTI-Colombia Transforma that we were the right partner to do the evaluation of such activity. Finally, we are designing the impact evaluation for an OIM program on policing in PDET municipalities, and executing a research project on Covid vaccines. Such sustainability efforts translated into close to

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700 million pesos on external resources attracted by the Observatorio in the past year. Despite of this efforts, we still have a long road ahead because over the past years our team grew bigger and our future depends on attracting new and more projects.

Visibility The visibility component aimed to obtain the recognition and to strengthen the relationship with various stakeholders while positioning OD as a reference and a leader of research and analysis on public opinion issues and as a generator of national dialogues and debates. In the last 5 years, POA has developed key and fruitful alliances that allowed join research ventures with the University of California, Berkeley, UNDP, Uniandes’ School of Education, No es Hora De

Callar Campaign, SENA, Secretariat of Transparency, the National Electoral Council, the Communications Department of the Presidency, and Colombia Transforma, among others. For example, we did a study on gender violence against women journalists hired by Jineth Bedoya and the No Es Hora De Callar campaign for Casa Editorial El Tiempo. The Observatorio has established and maintained multiple alliances with media outlets in Colombia and established relationships with 23 opinion leaders which have resulted in almost USD $4M in freepress. Every activity that the OD has done in the last 5 years has been designed and executed thinking in our visibility and positioning. The OD has learned the importance of stablishing relations that enable us to have a higher profile while sharing useful, functional, and up to the minute public opinion data. The OD challenge in terms of visibility is to sustain what has been gained so far, in terms of increasing its visibility and its good reputation. Component 2: Communications and Dissemination The Observatorio de la Democracia developed an impressive dissemination component which contributed to increase access to and use of survey results by, the Government of Colombia, decision makers, USAID, international organizations, media, and the general public on a permanent basis.

We have shared our information with more than 800,000 individuals in Colombia in the last 5 years. Likewise, our information and our reports reached thousands of people around the world, especially in Latin America. We also shared our data with: 8 USAID offices and activities; 21 government agencies; 14 Local governments; 8 National and international academic institutions and 2 Embassies. During these five years, we developed innovative tools to get closer to audiences: two different podcasts, three multimedia reports, virtual events, and a deep redesign of our web site. We have established and maintained multiple alliances with media outlets in Colombia and established relationships with 23 opinion leaders which have resulted in almost USD $ 4M in free press. We have also traveled to 10 cities in Colombian and to 8 PDET municipalities. These trips brought us closer to different government officials, opinion leaders, local journalist, and civil society organizations. In these meetings we shared our data and analysis focusing on each region.

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In this period, POA was also an impact on public policy as the following documents used our data: 7 legislative initiatives in the Colombian Congress; 2 public policy mechanisms; 1 CONPES document; 1 Ombudsman's early warning; 1 local development plan; 1 anticorruption commission. POA results were also used in the final report of president Juan Manuel Santos’ government and the final report of the Special Electoral Commission. We also built an important community of followers on social media. As of today we have almost 4,000 Twitter followers, and close to 2,000 Facebook followers. In 2020 we opened our Instagram account and now has more tha 500 followers. Finally, our website has more than 500 visits per month. In the coming years we intend to maintain and expand the socialization of our information, with the aim of contributing to the public debate on public opinion, and having an impact on the construction and development of public policies.

Project Audit During the past five years, the Observatorio de la Democracia carried out the auditing process. Each year a public call was opened for the selection of the audit firms, which was made according to the criteria proposed by the internal audit of the University and the terms of reference proposed by USAID. During the yearly auditing processes, the OD received recommendations that it had the opportunity to adopt in order to improve the resources management, correcting each one of the suggestions. These are the contracted firms: 2016 Price Waterhouse Coopers PwC 2017 Price Waterhouse Coopers PwC 2018 Ernst & Young Audit S.A.S. 2019 Ernst & Young Audit S.A.S.

CPA ASSOCIATES INTERNATIONAL has been working in the 2020-2021 audit. During the closing period, the audit will be carried out for year five plus the six months extension. The audit for these two periods started in June and will conclude on September 30, 2021.

Based on the results and partnership with USAID staff, the Observatorio will design and implement a plan to address all recommendations and set up the necessary mechanisms to solve them.

III. Next Quarter Activities The next closing quarter will focus on executing the USAID approved closure plan and ongoing audit work. It includes datasets and the metadata to be uploaded to DDL and DEC.

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IV. Budget Execution The projected budget from 2016 to July 2021was USD $2,999,226 of USAID funds, and COP $ 534.545.935 cost share. The total executed budget from 2016 to July 2021was USD $2,937,110 of USAID funds, and COP $ 713.089.372 cost share. The projected budget for the last quarter (August 2021 to October 2021) is USD $25,383.

Salaries and wages and paying the company in charge of doing the annual surveys field work were the main expenses of POA. Other expesses included: computer equipments, travels and trasportation, the communications strategy (production of communications pieces, printing reports, webpage, etc.) and auditing.

POA BUDGET 2016 - 2021

Object Class Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total

Salaries and Wages

102,923

143,359

277,102

290,957

305,505

1,119,845

Fringe Benefits

52,710

78,451

139,487

146,461

153,784

570,894

Travel, Transportation & Per Diem

3,556

3,919

16,581

17,410

18,280

59,746

ODCs 11,903

29,162

121,812

85,536

87,450

335,863

Subawards 112,267

170,754

132,844

123,098

141,900

680,863

Direct Costs 283,359

425,645

687,825

663,463

706,919

2,767,211

Indirect Charges

19,041

32,314

60,954

59,115

60,591

232,015

Total USAID Portion

302,400

457,959

748,779

722,578

767,510

2,999,226

Cost Share 98.272.440

101.220.613

106.281.644 111.595.726

117.175.512

534.545.935

ACTUAL EXECUTION Object Class

Category 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total Salaries and Wages

102,923

143,359

212,665

215,493

261,471

146,760

1,082,670

Fringe Benefits

52,710

78,451

110,414

122,046

187,746

89,673

641,041

Travel, Transportation & Per Diem

3,556

3,919

12,119

14,846

(6)

-

34,434

ODCs 11,903

29,162

49,424

84,955

91,369

44,141

310,955

Subawards 112,267

105,790

133,106

164,097

116,077

631,336

16

Direct Costs 283,359

360,681

517,727

601,438

656,657

280,574

2,700,436

Indirect Charges

23,949

27,407

45,505

50,191

61,694

27,928

236,674

Total USAID Portion

307,307

388,088

563,232

651,630

718,350

308,502

2,937,110

Cost Share 121.072.764

138.639.730

115.384.267 111.595.726

142.987.505

83.409.380

713.089.372

PLANNED FOR NEXT QUARTER

Object Class Category Agosto Septiembre Octubre Total

Salaries and Wages

5,801

5,801

5,801

17,403

Fringe Benefits

1,891

1,891

1,891

5,673

Travel, Transportation & Per Diem

-

-

-

-

ODCs -

-

-

-

Subawards -

-

-

-

Direct Costs 7,692

7,692

7,692

23,076

Indirect Charges

769

769

769

2,380

Total USAID Portion

8,461

8,461

8,461

25,383

Cost Share -

*Exchange rate: 3,500 COP

17

Annexes General Indicator by year

FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 Grand Total

Indicator Total FY/ Actual

Total FY / Target

Total FY/ Actual

Total FY / Target

Total FY/ Actual

Total FY / Target

Total FY/ Actual

Total FY / Target

Project Total / Actual

Project total / Target

POA-1 Progress on work plan implementation

80,00 100,00 90,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00

POA-3 Percent of stakeholders surveyed who state the information provided by POA was very useful

100,00 70,00 88,00 70,00 100,00 70,00 100,00 70,00 100,00 70,00

POA-4 Percent of persons who successfully complete the capacity building tests on public opinion data interpretation

85,00 70,00 96,00 70,00 100,00 70,00 100,00 70,00

POA-5 Free Press mobilized by POA

1.796.813,00 1.000.000,00 1.037.618,95 1.000.000,00 544.889,34 1.000.000,00 664.155,94 1.000.000,00 4.043.477,23 4.000.000,00

POA-6 Communications engagement through social media outlets

100,00 6,00 400,00 6,00 400,00 6,00 300,00 6,00 1.200,00 24,00

STIR-12 Number of peer-reviewed scientific publications resulting from USG support to research and implementation programs (STIR-12).

1,00 1,00 4,00 2,00 7,00 1,00 9,00 1,00 21,00 5,00

―

POAPUBLIC OPINION ACTIVITY ― A key source of information and analisys

2

Since 2004, POA has interviewed 28,301 Colombians, has asked 1,615 different questions about institutions, conflict, security and civic participation.

As part of the AmericasBarometer-LAPOP we are the only study that has comparability across more than 25 countries.

On top of this, POA designed and asked 867 questions specific to the Colombian context.

The Observatorio de la Democracia at Universidad de los Andes analyzes and interprets public opinion data in order to understand attitudes and behaviors. Our information is meant to foster debate, contribute to public policy-making and motivate civil society participation and debate on key topics related to democracy.

The Observatorio was created in 2004 and has implemented POA since 2016.

NS

HLD

National Sample

Special Sample

High-Level Dialogue

SS

Added value compared to other public opinion studies

We have also large samples, especially in the last few years (4,000 respondents in 2019 and 3.200 in 2020).

NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS NS

HLDSS SS SS SS SS SS

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NS

3

We have conducted 14 national samples and 6 special samples. This has allowed us to study how social and political attitudes and perceptions of Colombians have changed over time since 2004.

We have adapted our samples and questionnaires to meet the needs of USAID Colombia (special modules and special samples such as the HLD1 study)

_____

1. High-Level Dialogue.

2. Data Quality Assessment.

Flexibility:

POA’s samples have greater representativeness of rural areas (in a proportion of aprox. 70% urban, 30% rural) than similar public opinion studies which are mainly urban.

30% rural

70% urbanaprox.

aprox.

POA has developed robust data control quality systems increasing its survey’s data accuracy and reliability. We have developed methodologies and technologies to do DQA2 of surveys in real time.

4

Qualitative component

POA is the only public opinion study that offers a qualitative component to deepen results, especially on topics like reconciliation, basic services, security, and trust in the police in times of COVID-19.

POA is developed a qualitative evaluation for Colombia Transforma (MSI and USAID-OTI) to assess the impact on peacebuilding of 88 infrastructure interventions supported by such activity, and is developing a qualitative evaluation of the second phase of the program in Norte de Santander and the Pacífico nariñense.

#Política&RedesAnalyzes public opinion of Colombians on social media. It has conducted 5 studies on Disinformation in times of pandemic, Mentions to the Police on Twitter during the 21N, 2019 national strike. This area obtained funding from the Social Science Research Council and from EGAP to conduct a study on misinformation in relation to vaccines against Covid.

Alliances and partnerships

POA has developed key and fruitful alliances with the University of Berkeley, UNDP, Uniandes School of Education, SENA, Secretariat for Transparency, National Electoral Council, Communications Department of the Presidency, Colombia Transforma, among others.

For example, we did the study on gender violence on women journalists hired by Jineth Bedoya and her No Es Hora De Callar campaign.

5

Established working partnerships with:2 USAID activities10 GOC agencies13 Colombian media6 NGOs4 International organizations

5 academic institutions1 International network of scholarsPractitioners and policy makers

The work of POA has been an example and a benchmark in terms of communications for AmericasBarometer-LAPOP.

Dissemination

POA s dissemination strategy has contributed to increase the access and use of survey results among stakeholders, decision makers, USAID activities, international organizations, media, and the general public.

We have shared our information with more than 800,000 people in Colombia in the last 5 years.

Multiple alliances with media and established relationsships with 23 opinion leaders wich have resulted in almost USD$4M in free press.

We developed innovative tools to get closer to audiences: 2 different podcasts, 3 multimedia, virtual events, and a redesigned web page.

We have traveled to many cities of the country and to PDET3 municipalities.

_____

3. Territorially Focused Development Plans.

6

We have shared our info with: 8 USAID offices/activities 21 GOC agencies14 Local governments 8 National and international academic institutions2 Embassies

POA as an influencer on public policy

7 legislative initiatives in the Colombian Congress; 2 public policy mechanisms; 1 CONPES document; 1 Ombudsman’s early warning; 1 local development plan; 1 anticorruption commission. POA results were also used in the final report of president Juan Manuel Santos’ government and the final report of the Special Electoral Commission.

Followers:

Twitter: more than 4,000

Facebook: more than 1,900

Instagram: opening the account in 2020, more than 500

Webpage: more than 500 visitors per month

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