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-1- STS 2005 recap on strategic Direction Strictly Confidential Strictly Confidential PTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNING PTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNING PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By Mr. Surong Bulakul Senior Executive Vice President, International Trading Business Unit SPE Meeting, June 19. 2008

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Page 1: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

- 1 -STS 2005 recap on strategic Direction

–– Strictly Confidential Strictly Confidential ––

PTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNINGPTT CORPORATE STRATEGY AND PLANNING

PTT International Oil Trading

&

Our Future Trading Programs

By

Mr. Surong Bulakul

Senior Executive Vice President,

International Trading Business Unit

SPE Meeting, June 19. 2008

Page 2: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

PTT Hydrocarbon Value Chain

Contents

PTT Future Trading Programs

PTT Crude Oil & Condensate Trading

Thailand Energy Consumption

Oil Price Movement

Page 3: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

(Unit: USD/BBL)

Dubai ULG 95 Gasoil 0.5%S HSFO 180CST

40404040

60606060

80808080

100100100100

120120120120

140140140140

160160160160

180180180180

AprJan Feb Mar May Jun

- Saudi will pump 0.2MMBD more in July to 9.7MMBD

- Early April, snow in Europe

- Shell Nigeria declaredForce Majeure Bonny Light export (400 KBD)- 30 Apr. FED fund rate reduced 0.25% to2.0%

- 10 May fire at Grangemouthrefinery (200 KBD) in

Scotland - 27 May French fishermen closed oil ports

- China diesel import from Jan.- May rose 900% from last year at 3 Mil.Ton

- 10 Feb. Venezuela and ExxonMobil conflict, PDVSA threatened to stop oil exports

- 18 Mar. FED fund rate reduced 0.75% to2.25%

- Mexico closed oil ports

- 29 May CFTC & ICE cooperated in tightening measures for futures oil trading

- 24 May Indonesiaincreased retail prices

- 1 Jun.Arthur hitGulf of Mexico

- Late winter- U.S. economic slow down

- Refinery Maintenance in Europe - Capacity shut-in 400 KBD

Oil Price Movement (Jan. 08 - Current)

Page 4: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

What’s Moving Oil Market?

§§ IEA, EIA, OPEC adjusted downward IEA, EIA, OPEC adjusted downward

world oil demand growth cited econ. world oil demand growth cited econ.

slow down & high oil pricesslow down & high oil prices

§§ Saudi :Saudi :--

-- announced 0.2 MMBD productionannounced 0.2 MMBD production

increase in July to 9.7 MMBDincrease in July to 9.7 MMBD

-- called called ““Producer/ConsumerProducer/Consumer””

meeting on 22 June in Jeddahmeeting on 22 June in Jeddah

§§ CFTC & ICE agreed on stricterCFTC & ICE agreed on stricter

measures on futures trading measures on futures trading

§§ Shell extendedShell extended Force Force MajeureMajeure

Bonny Light to July Bonny Light to July

§§ Fire at Fire at OsebergOseberg platform platform

(150 KBD) in North Sea(150 KBD) in North Sea

§§ U.S. crude inventories dropU.S. crude inventories drop

5 weeks in a row 5 weeks in a row

§§ U.S. & U.K. agreed to put tighterU.S. & U.K. agreed to put tighter

sanction on Iran, due to nuclearsanction on Iran, due to nuclear

developmentdevelopment

Page 5: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08

Africa

FSU

Mid East

Latin America

Other Asia

Europe

China

Total World OilDemand

WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH, MB/D (YR-ON-YR CHANGE)•Non-OECD countries remain drivers of world oil demand growth

• Non-OECD countries

oil demand not in cycle with OECD oil demand growth

•Therefore spill-over effects from credit crunch could be limited in the short term

• Many consumers in non-OECD sheltered from oil price rise due to retail price subsidies

•Chinese demand growth steady at 300kb/d as country initiates energy efficiency drivers

NONNON--OECD OIL DEMAND GROWTHOECD OIL DEMAND GROWTH

Page 6: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,
Page 7: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Thailand Energy Consumption

Page 8: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Thailand Demand/Supply Balance 2007

TOTAL DEMAND TOTAL DEMAND 1,2121,212 (+2.0) EXPORT 196 ((+2.0) EXPORT 196 (--10.5) 10.5) TOTAL SUPPLY TOTAL SUPPLY 1,5741,574 ((--1.0)1.0)

Unit : KBD ( ) : % Change from Previous Year

BCP 120

TOP 275

SPRC 150

PTTAR 145

ESSO 145

IRPC 215

RPC 17

Total 1,067 Total 1,067

KBDKBD

RefiningCapacity

12 (-21)

773 (-4.8)

VolumesSources

158 (+4.3)

Crude Oil

Condensate

Natural Gas

129 (+3.2)

65 (+0.1)

421 (+7)

Crude Oil Export 52 (-21)Condensate Exp. 0 (Also 0 in 2006)

Six Gas Separation Plants with Combined Capacity of 1,755

MMCF/D

* includes LPG from Petrochemical Plants 7.6 (+10)* includes LPG from Petrochemical Plants 7.6 (+10)

Products 16 (-38)61%61%

Crude Oil

Condensate

EGATIndustriesSPP + IPP

186 (+1.2)64 (+26)225 (+4)

Natural Gas Consumption

39%39%

Product Consumption Export

LPG* 117 (+14) 9 (-52)

Gasoline 127 (+1.7) 27 (-18)

DPK 85 (+9) 8 (-56)

Diesel 323 (+2) 46 (-8.5)

Fuel Oil 73 (-28) 43 (+75)

Bitumen 12 (-12) 10 (+27)

Total 737 (-0.0) 144 (-5.9)

Product Consumption Export

LPG* 117 (+14) 9 (-52)

Gasoline 127 (+1.7) 27 (-18)

DPK 85 (+9) 8 (-56)

Diesel 323 (+2) 46 (-8.5)

Fuel Oil 73 (-28) 43 (+75)

Bitumen 12 (-12) 10 (+27)

Total 737 (-0.0) 144 (-5.9)

Natural

Gas

Page 9: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Gas

Gas

Oil

Oil

Petrochemical

Petrochemical

Crude Oil Crude Oil ProcurementProcurement

Crude & Condensate

Natural Gas

Crude & Condensate

Power Plants

Compressor

Gas Separation Plants

Lube Base Plant

PTTRF

Natural Gas Mix

Gas Products

Electricity

DCS in Airport

NGV

Oil

LPG

Transportation

Petrochemical Plants: Intermediates (MEG, Phenol, etc.)

Plastic Resins

Olefins & Aromatics Plants

End Products

Petroleum Products

Pipeline

PTT Stations

PTTEP

Trading

Export MarketsExport Markets

UpstreamUpstream IntermediateIntermediate DownstreamDownstream End CustomersEnd Customers

Industry

LPG/NGL

Fully Integrated Portfolio & Strong Leadership PositionFully Integrated Portfolio & Strong Leadership Position

PTT Hydrocarbon Value Chain

ExportMarket

Page 10: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Crude Oil and Condensate Import & Trading

Middle East 94%UAE, Saudi Arabia,

Oman, Qatar, Yemen

Middle East 94%UAE, Saudi Arabia,

Oman, Qatar, Yemen

Africa 2%Algeria, Garbon,

Angola, Sudan

Africa 2%Algeria, Garbon,

Angola, Sudan Other 2%Australia,

Azerbaijan, China

Other 2%Australia,

Azerbaijan, China

Far East 2%Malaysia, Indonesia

Far East 2%Malaysia, Indonesia

Thailand

China

Taiwan

Indonesia

EuropeAzerbaijan

Angola

Source of import

Out Out Trading

Thailand Crude & Condensate Import = 785 KBD Thailand Crude & Condensate Import = 785 KBD

PTT crude & condensate import = 445 KBD (~57% of TH import)PTT crude & condensate import = 445 KBD (~57% of TH import)

Page 11: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Producers

Sino US

Pacific Tiger

PTTEP

Hess

Chevron

Pearl Energy

Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics

Thailand has locally produced 246 KBD, of which 80% is used locaThailand has locally produced 246 KBD, of which 80% is used locally.lly.

Logistic Base

is a transportation for offshore field.

is a transportation mostly for onshore field except

Phet condensate.

is a transportation for Phet condensate.

Page 12: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Wichianburi

Phet

NC

Suphanburi

Sonkajai

Phu Horm

Chon Buri

Bangkok

Kamphaeng

583 KM.

455 KM.

570 KM.346 KM.

358 KM.

115 KM.

Phetchabune Khon Kaen

Suphan Buri

Trucks are used as a logistic in moving oil

from oil field to BCP refinery• Phu Horm Condensate from Khon Kaen• Wichianburi crude from Phetchabune• NC crude from Kamphang Phet• Suphanburi and Sonkajai from Suphan Buri

Truck route

Rail route

Phet crude is transported by

• Truck which load from oil field in Kamphang

to Phitsanulok, then by

• Rail which load from Phitsanulok to

to BCP and TOP refinery

50 KM.

Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics

Page 13: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

Benchamas

Palin

Arthit

Bongkot

Pattani

Jasmine

Rayong

Chon Buri

Bangkok

Erawan & Trat

Time Charter vessels are used as a logisticin moving oil from offshore oil field to Sriracha and Maptaphut Port.

229.4 NM17H 00M

Pattani

221.5 NM16H 24M

Erawan/Trat

249.9 NM20H 44M

324.5 NM24H 00M

Arthit/Bongkot

159 NM12H 00M

Benchamas/Pailin

121.0 NM09H 00M

Jasmine

Map Ta PhutSrirachaPort

pipeline

Route to PTTAR

Route to BCP

Route to TOP

Indigenous Crude Oil and Condensate Logistics

Page 14: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

PTT Group Refineries

PTT represents 34% of total refining capacityPTT represents 34% of total refining capacity by equity portionby equity portion

Total Thailand Refinery Capacity = 1,067 KBD

Total PTT Group Refinery Capacity = 905 KBD

- Phet, SKJ, BP, NC, Pattani,Nang Nuan, Wichianburi, Jasmine

- Bongkot, Phuhom Cond.- Malampaya Cond., Duri, Dar Blend

Cap. 120 KBD

- Arab Light, Qatar Marine, Conzak, Sahara, Mutineer,Arab Heavy, Tapis, etc.

Cap. 215 KBD

- Murban, Oman, Masila, Alshaheen, Upper Zakum, Arab Extra Light, Qatar MarineQ R.

Cap. 150 KBD

- Phet, Benchamas, Pattani, Nang Nuan, Jasmine

- Bongkot, Trat, Cakerawala- Murban, Oman, Lower Zakum,Umchaeiff, etc.

Cap. 275 KBD

- Jasmine, Erawan, Pailin,Bongkot, Trat

- Murban, Oman, Masila,Alshaheen, Upper Zakum,Girassol, etc.

Cap. 145 KBD

Crude oil & Condensate Input

Page 15: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.

PTT Future Oil Trading Project

433a & 416b

Algeria

Rommana

Sidi Abd EI RahmanIran Saveh

Iran

Oman 44

Oman 58

Egypt

Oman

Australia

Australia AC/P36

New Zealand Great South

New Zealand

Oil Field

Gas Field

Bahrain

Bahrain Block 2

PTT will acts as a partner and marketing arm for PTT will acts as a partner and marketing arm for

PTTEP oversea crude production. PTTEP oversea crude production.

PTT will explore crude oil trading opportunity elsewhere in the PTT will explore crude oil trading opportunity elsewhere in the world.world.

PTTEP Oversea Projects

Page 16: PTT International Oil Trading Our Future Trading Programsthaispe.org/MonthlyMeeting/Present_Oil_Markets.pdf · PTT International Oil Trading & Our Future Trading Programs By ... UAE,

Business Planning Div.