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1 Psychophysiological modeling - Current state and future directions Dominik R. Bach 1.2,3 , Giuseppe Castegnetti 1,2 , Christoph W. Korn 1,2,4 , Samuel Gerster 1,2 , Filip Melinscak 1,2 , Tobias Moser 1,2 1 Clinical Psychiatry Research, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 2 Neuroscience Center Zurich, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland 3 Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging and Max Planck/UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, University College London, United Kingdom 4 Institute for Systems Neuroscience, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany Correspondence Dominik R. Bach, Department of Psychiatry, Psychotherapy, and Psychosomatics, Psychiatric Hospital, University of Zurich, Lenggstrasse 31, CH-8032 Zurich; Switzerland. Email: [email protected] Abstract Psychologists often use peripheral physiological measures to infer a psychological variable. It is desirable to make this inverse inference in the most precise way, ideally standardized across research laboratories. In recent years, psychophysiological modeling has emerged as a method that rests on statistical techniques to invert mathematically formulated forward models (psychophysiological models, PsPMs). These PsPMs are based on psychophysiological knowledge and optimized with respect to the precision of the inference. Building on established experimental manipulations, known to create different values of a psychological variable, they can be benchmarked in terms of their sensitivity (e.g., effect size) to recover these values we have termed this predictive validity. In this review, we introduce the problem of inverse inference and psychophysiological modelling as a solution. We present background and application for all peripheral measures for which PsPMs have been developed: skin conductance, heart period, respiratory measures, pupil size, and startle eye blink. Many of these PsPMs are task invariant, implemented in open-source software, and can be used off the shelf for a

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  • 1

    Psychophysiologicalmodeling-Currentstateandfuturedirections

    DominikR.Bach1.2,3,GiuseppeCastegnetti1,2,ChristophW.Korn1,2,4,SamuelGerster1,2,Filip

    Melinscak1,2,TobiasMoser1,2

    1ClinicalPsychiatryResearch,DepartmentofPsychiatry,Psychotherapy,andPsychosomatics,PsychiatricHospital,UniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland

    2NeuroscienceCenterZurich,UniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland3WellcomeTrustCentreforNeuroimagingandMaxPlanck/UCLCentrefor

    ComputationalPsychiatryandAgeingResearch,UniversityCollegeLondon,UnitedKingdom

    4InstituteforSystemsNeuroscience,UniversityMedicalCenterHamburg-Eppendorf,Hamburg,Germany

    Correspondence

    DominikR.Bach,DepartmentofPsychiatry,Psychotherapy,andPsychosomatics,PsychiatricHospital,UniversityofZurich,Lenggstrasse31,CH-8032Zurich;

    Switzerland.Email:[email protected]

    Abstract

    Psychologistsoftenuseperipheralphysiologicalmeasurestoinferapsychologicalvariable.Itisdesirabletomakethisinverseinferenceinthemostpreciseway,ideally

    standardizedacrossresearchlaboratories.Inrecentyears,psychophysiological

    modelinghasemergedasamethodthatrestsonstatisticaltechniquestoinvert

    mathematicallyformulatedforwardmodels(psychophysiologicalmodels,PsPMs).

    ThesePsPMsarebasedonpsychophysiologicalknowledgeandoptimizedwithrespect

    totheprecisionoftheinference.Buildingonestablishedexperimentalmanipulations,

    knowntocreatedifferentvaluesofapsychologicalvariable,theycanbebenchmarkedin

    termsoftheirsensitivity(e.g.,effectsize)torecoverthesevalueswehavetermedthis

    predictivevalidity.Inthisreview,weintroducetheproblemofinverseinferenceand

    psychophysiologicalmodellingasasolution.Wepresentbackgroundandapplicationfor

    allperipheralmeasuresforwhichPsPMshavebeendeveloped:skinconductance,heart

    period,respiratorymeasures,pupilsize,andstartleeyeblink.ManyofthesePsPMsare

    taskinvariant,implementedinopen-sourcesoftware,andcanbeusedofftheshelffora

  • 2

    widerangeofexperiments.Psychophysiologicalmodelingthusappearsasapotentially

    powerfulmethodtoinferpsychologicalvariables.

    Keywords

    analysis/statisticalmethods,autonomicnervoussystem,computationalmodeling,

    electrodermalactivity,heartrate,pupillometry

    1Introduction

    Peripheralphysiologicalmeasurementsareoftenusedtoinferpsychologicalvariables.

    Forexample,totestapsychologicalinterventionthatreducesfearmemory,aresearcher

    maybeinterestedinquantifyingthestrengthoffearmemoryfromskinconductance

    responses(SCR).Thispsychologicalperspectiveistheoppositeofabasic

    psychophysiologicalperspective,inwhichresearchersaimtodescribehowpsychologicalvariablesimpactontheperipheralmeasure.Toenableinferenceona

    psychologicalvariable,thepsychophysiologicalmappingfromthisvariabletothe

    measuredsignal(the"forwardmodel"instatisticalterminology)needstobeknown

    withsomecertainty,anditneedstobeexploitedinthebestpossibleway(themodel

    needstobe"inverted"),toarriveatthemostpreciseestimateofthepsychological

    variable.Thisisthepsychophysiologicalinverseproblem(Figure1a).

    Psychophysiologicalmodelingisastatisticalframeworktosolvethisproblemina

    principledmanner(Bach&Friston,2013).Itcanprovideexperiment-invariant,off-the-

    shelfapplicationsthatimproveoncurrentmethodsforinverseinferenceandthereby

    suggestmeaningfulmethodologicalstandardstoenhancereproducibility.

  • 3

    Indeed,psychophysiologicalmodelingapproacheshavebeenappliedtoanalyzeawide

    varietyofexperiments:toinferattentionalvariablesfrompupilresponses(e.g.,deGee

    etal.,2017;deGee,Knapen,&Donner,2014),toinferfearlearningfromSCR(e.g.,Bach,

    Weiskopf,&Dolan,2011;Bulganin,Bach,&Wittmann,2014;Tzovara,Korn,&Bach,

    2018)andstartleeyeblink(Bach,Tzovara,&Vunder,2017),andtoquantifyautonomic

    arousalduringperception(e.g.,Bach,Seifritz,&Dolan,2015;Hayesetal.,2013;Koban,

    Kusko,&Wager,2018;Koban&Wager,2016;Sulzeretal.,2013),decision-making(e.g.,

    Alvarez,etal.,2015;Bach,2015a;deBerkeretal.,2016;Nicolle,Fleming,Bach,Driver,&

    Dolan,2011;Talmi,Dayan,Kiebel,Frith,&Dolan,2009),andrest(Fanetal.,2012).

    Thisreviewisstructuredinthefollowingway.First,wediscusshowtocompare

    methodsforinverseinferenceonpsychologicalvariablesandintroducetheconceptof

    predictivevalidity.Wethenpresentpsychophysiologicalmodelingasanovelapproach,

    includingaspecificimplementationcreatedbytheauthorstogetherwithrelated

    methods.Inthemajorpartofthereview,wegiveatutorial-styleoverviewofthevarious

    forwardmodelsandinversionmethodsdevelopedoverthepastdecade,fordifferent

    physiologicalmeasures.Thefieldismovingrapidly.Whileninemethodologicalarticles

    Figure1.A:Thepsychophysiologicalinverseproblem.Top:psychophysiologicalperspective(forwardinference,e.g.,DoesaversivememoryinfluenceSCR?).Bottom:psychologicalperspective(inverseinference,e.g.,Doesmyprocedureestablishaversivememory,asindexedbySCR?)B:Benchmarkinganinverseinferencemethodbyassessingpredictivevalidity:Whatisthesensitivityforinferringtheeffectofaknownexperimentalmanipulation.

  • 4

    onthetopicwerepublishedbetween1993-2013,11suchpaperscameoutinthe5

    yearssincethelastreviewonthetopic(Bach&Friston,2013).Thislastreview

    containedahistoricalperspectiveonthedevelopmentofmodelsforSCRinthe1990s

    and2000s(Alexanderetal.,2005;Bach,Flandin,Friston,&Dolan,2009;Barry,

    Feldmann,Gordon,Cocker,&Rennie,1993;Limetal.,1997)andontheemergent

    critiqueofoperationalism(Green,1992);here,weapproachtheproblemina

    systematic,nonhistoricalmanner.

    2Predictivevalidity

    Allanalysismethodsforpsychophysiologicalsignalsarebasedonsomeknowledge

    abouttheforwardmappingfrompsychologytophysiology.Aplethoraof

    psychophysiologicalliteraturehasaddressedsuchforwardmappings.However,even

    withaperfectforwardmodeltherearedifferentwaysofmakinginverseinference.For

    example,onecandefinedifferentpossibletimewindowstodetectanSCRpeakafteran

    experimentalevent.Extendingthepeakwindowmayincreasethesensitivityofthe

    methodtodetectatrueevent-relatedresponse,butdecreaseitsspecificitybecause

    experiment-unspecificpeaksmaybemistakenforevent-relatedones.Crucially,the

    optimalbalanceisdifficulttointuitasis,forexample,evidentfromthecoexistenceof

    differentpeakdetectionwindowsinanalysisrecommendations(Boucseinetal.,2012),

    andsometimesevenwithinthesamelaboratories.Hence,itwouldbedesirableto

    quantitativelyevaluateaninverseinferencemethod.

    Toassessthequalityofinverseinference,onewouldideallycomparetheinferredwith

    theactualvalueofthepsychologicalvariable(i.e.,with"groundtruth").Ofcourse,

    groundtruthisneverknownforpsychologicalvariables.1Tosolvethisconundrum,we

    havepragmaticallyproposedtouseanexperimentalmanipulationthatcanbeassumed

    toinfluencethepsychologicalvariableinacertainwayandisknowntoimpactonthe

    peripheralmeasure.Onecanthenevaluatemethodsbytheirsensitivitytodetectthe

    impactofthisexperimentalmanipulation(Figure1b).Wehaveintroducedtheterm

    predictivevalidityforthismeasure(Bach,Daunizeau,Friston,&Dolan,2010),sinceit

    1Thisistrueformanyareasofscienceandtechnology.

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    evaluateshowwellthepsychologicalvariablecanbepredicted.2Predictivevalidity

    analysishasoftenbeenperformedonacategoricalexperimentalmanipulation(e.g.,

    anticipatingthreatorsafetyinfearconditioning).Althoughitmaythusappearonthe

    surfacethatpredictivevalidityboilsdowntoclassificationperformance,oneusually

    aspirestoinferpsychologicalvariablesonacontinuousscale,sothatthemethod

    extendstosituationsinwhichthepsychologicalvariablevariesparametricallyacross

    morethantwolevels.Crucially,sincemostpsychophysiologicalmeasuresarerelatively

    unspecific,validationexperimentsrequirethattheexperimentalconditionsdifferon

    onlyonedimension,thepsychologicalvariableofinterest.Thisistrueforanyinverse

    inferencemethod.Onceamethodwithhighpredictivevalidityisidentified,onecan

    applythismethodtoother(methodologicallysimilar)experimentstoinferthesame

    psychologicalvariable.

    Thus,inavalidationexperiment,agoodinferencemethodprovidesanestimatorofthe

    (known)psychologicalvariablethathassmallervariancethananyothermethod.Fora

    categoricalvalidationexperimentwithtwolevels,thissimplymeans-becausethescale

    ofthepsychologicalvariableisarbitrary-thatthestandardizeddifferenceinthe

    estimatedpsychologicalvariablebetweenthesetwolevelsshouldbelarge.Thiscanbe

    evaluatedbyregardingtheeffectsize,orteststatistic,ortheresidualsumsofsquaresin

    apredictivemodel,orthemodelevidenceofthatpredictivemodel.Allofthese

    quantitiesaremonotonicallyrelated.Usingmodelevidenceadditionallyallowsusto

    makestatementswhethertwomethodsaredecisivelydifferent(Bach&Friston,2013;

    seeAppendixEquation1).Atthesametime,thedifferenceintheestimated

    psychologicalvariablebetweentworandompartitionsofthesameexperimental

    conditionshouldbezeroonaverage.

    Predictivevaliditycanbeharnessedtovalidateanyinverseinferencemethod,includingoperationalanalysis.Forthepsychophysiologicalmodelingapproach,someadditional

    considerationsarewarranted.Here,psychologicalvariablesareestimatedbyoptimizing

    thegoodness-of-fitoftheforwardmodel.Yet,forcomparisonofdifferentmethods,the

    goodness-of-fitoftheforwardmodelisnotasuitablecriterion.Thegoaloftheforward

    2Becausethepsychologicalvariableisknownapriori,onecouldalsocallit“retrodictivevalidity”.

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    modelistopredictthesignal,andthegoalofinferenceistofindthemostprecise

    estimateofthepsychologicalvariable.Thesetwogoalscanalignwith,beorthogonalto,

    orevenopposeeachother.Intuitively,onecouldassumethat,iftheforwardmodelis

    knownwithcertaintyandformulatedinmathematicalterms,oneshouldeasilybeable

    toinvertthemapping.However,thereareseveralstatisticalreasonswhythisintuition

    isincorrectinthegeneralcase(althoughitmaybecorrectunderspecific

    circumstances).First,theforwardmodelmayuseparametersthatoneisnotinterested

    ininferring.Forexample,thebestknownforwardmodelforSCRassumesthatthe

    strengthoramplitudeofpsychologicalinputintothesystemisdifferentoneachtrial

    (Gerster,Namer,Elam,&Bach,2017).However,manyresearchersarenotinterestedin

    psychologicalvariablesonatrial-by-trialbasisbutonlyintheaveragepsychological

    variablewithinanexperimentalcondition.Thestandardgenerallinearmodel(GLM)

    inversionapproachforSCR(Bachetal.2009;Bach,Friston,&Dolan,2013)willnormallyyieldthesameconditionwiseestimates,regardlessofwhetherestimationwas

    doneonatrial-by-trialbasisfollowedbyaveraging,oronacondition-by-conditionbasis.

    Inthiscase,thesimplermodelyieldsthesameinferenceonthepsychologicalstate,

    althoughempiricallyitcannotpredictSCRdatasowell,becauseitwouldassumethe

    same(average)SCRamplitudeforeachtrial(Bachetal.,2013).Hence,precisionofthe

    forwardmodelandoftheinferenceareunrelated.Anexamplewheretheyareopposed

    isgivenbyindividualresponsefunctionsforSCR.Allevidencesuggeststhatthemapping

    fromsudomotornerveactivitytoskinconductancedependsonsubject-specific

    anatomicalproperties,andisvariablebetweenpersons(Bach,Flandin,Friston,&Dolan,

    2010;Gersteretal.,,2017).Hence,aforwardmodeltakingthisheterogeneityinto

    accountwillhaveabettergoodness-of-fitthanamodelassumingacanonicalresponse

    functionacrosssubjects,aswehavealsoshownempirically(Bachetal.,,2013).Atthe

    sametime,itcanbedifficulttoestimatetheshapeofanindividual'strueresponse

    functionfromalimitednumberoftrialswithshortintertrialintervals,andensuing"overfitting"canmakeinferenceonthepsychologicalvariableworse,reducing

    predictivevalidity(Bach,Friston,&Dolan,2013).

    Tosummarize,predictivevalidityallowsastatementonthequalityofinverseinference,

    regardlessofthemethodunderstudy.Itcanbeusedtobenchmarkpsychophysiological

    models,operationalmethods,orevenmachine-learningmethodsthattrytofind

    statisticalregularitieswithoutanyknowledgeofthepsychologicalorbiophysical

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    relationships(Grecoetal.,2017;Greco,Lanata,Valenza,DiFrancesco,&Scilingo,2016;

    Greco,Valenza,&Scilingo,2016).Asastatisticalframework,ithasapotentialto

    improveinverseinference,tostandardizemethodsacrosslaboratories(byselectingthe

    bestone),andtoprovideanobjectivemeansforqualitycontrolwithinandbetween

    laboratories.Wewillreturntotheselatterpointsinthediscussion.

    3PsychophysiologicalModeling

    Thegoalofinverseinferenceistofindthebestpossibleestimatorofapsychologicalvariable,fromameasureddatatimeseries.Thisincludesso-calledoperationalmethods,

    which"operationalize"(i.e.,equateanoisyversionof)thepsychologicalvariablewitha

    singlephysiologicaldatafeature,forexample,apeak-to-troughmeasure.Because

    operationalmethodsuseoneoraverysmallnumberofdatafeatures,ratherthanthe

    entiretimeseries,theymaysufferfrominformationloss.Psychophysiologicalmodeling

    isawayofusinganentiredatatimeseriesforinference(Figure2).Inanutshell,a

    psychophysiologicalmodel(PsPM)isaformal,quantitativemodelthatmapsa

    psychologicalvariableontoanobserveddatatimeseries.PsPMsarespecifiedin

    mathematicalform.TheearliestPsPMsweredevelopedforSCRandexplicitlyconstitutedasequenceoftwomodels(Figure3a):aneuralmodelthatspecifiesthe

    mappingofthepsychologicalvariableontosudomotornerveactivity(SNA),anda

    peripheral(effectororgan)modelthatspecifieshowSNAmapsontomeasuredSCR

    (Alexanderetal.,2005;Bachetal.,2009;Limetal.,1997).ForSCR,thissplitisuseful

    Figure2.Operationalanalysis(top)assumesthatselecteddatafeaturesare"equivalent"toapsychologicalvariable,wheretheselectionofdatafeaturesisoftenbasedoninformalmodels.Psychophysiologicalmodelling(bottom)estimatesthemostlikelypsychologicalvariable,giventheentiredatatimeseriesandastandard(experiment-invariant)responsemodel.

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    becausetheperipheralmodelcanbeevaluatedonitsownbyintraneuralstimulation

    andrecordingsfromwellaccessibleperipheralnerves(Gersteretal.,2017).Forsome

    othermeasures,theperipheralmodelcanbeapproximatedbyspecificstimuli,for

    example,onecanuseluminancechangestoelucidatepupilmechanics.However,for

    mostPsPMsthathavebeencreatedtodate,neuralandperipheralprocessesaremore

    difficulttoseparateexperimentallyastheefferentnervesarelessaccessible(atleastin

    humans),andincurrentmodelstheyareeithercollapsed,orthedistinctionisonlyused

    formathematicalconvenience.

    3.1Hybridapproaches

    TheempiricaldistinctionbetweenneuralandperipheralmodelsforSCRhasearlyon

    motivatedahybridapproach(Alexanderetal.,2005),engendered,forexample,inthe

    Figure3.A:Basicformalismofmostpsychophysiologicalmodels.B:Relatedhybridapproaches(e.g.Ledalab,cvxEDA)useastandardresponsemodeltoinfera(noisy)timeseriesofneuralinputs,andselectdatafeaturesofthattimeseriesas"equivalent"tothepsychologicalvariable.C:Lineartimeinvariant(LTI)systemslieatthecoreofallexistingpsychophysiologicalmodellingandhybridapproaches.Aneuralinputisconvolvedwithacanonical(experiment-invariant)responsefunction,toyieldapredictionforthemeasuredsignal.

  • 9

    softwaresLedalab(Benedek&Kaernbach,2010a,2010b)orcvxEDA(Greco,Valenza,

    Lanata,Scilingo,&Citi,2015).Inthisapproach,adeterministicperipheralmodelis

    invertedtocomputeanoisySNAtimeseriesfromthetimeseriesofmeasuredSCRdata.

    Tomakeinferenceonpsychologicalvariables,somedatafeatures(peak-to-trough

    measures)oftheSNAtimeseriesareextracted,inlinewithmoretraditionaloperational

    analysis(Figure3b).Thissecondmappingisheuristicallymotivated,notquantitatively

    specifiedorevaluated.TwodifferentstudygroupshavecomparedLedalabwithpeak-

    to-troughmethodsontheonehandandafullPsPM-basedapproachontheother,in

    paradigmswithrelativelyshortintertrialintervals.Onaverage,thehybridLedalab

    approachwasfoundtoyieldsimilarpredictivevalidityasdirectlyusingpeak-to-trough

    measuresoftheSCRdata,anditspredictivevaliditywassurpassedbyinversionoffull

    PsPMs(Bach,2014;Green,Kragel,Fecteau,&LaBar,2014).Systematicevaluationof

    cvxEDAhasnotyetbeenconducted.Notably,theseapproachesdifferfromthePsPMapproachalsointheirperipheralforwardmodelsandstatisticalmethodsformodel

    inversion.Theycouldpossiblybeextendedtodirectlyestimatepsychologicalvariables,

    butretainingtheirspecificforwardmodelsandinversionmethods.

    3.2Lineartimeinvariantsystems

    AllPsPMsandhybridmodelsthathavebeenproposeduptotodaycontainattheirheart

    alineartimeinvariant(LTI)system(Figure3c).ALTIsystemisasystemtheoutputof

    whichdoesnotexplicitlydependontime(timeinvariance),andtheoutputtothesumof

    twoinputsisjustthesumoftheoutputsoftheindividualinputs(linearity).Thefirst

    principleimpliesthatdifferentresponseshapesareexplainedbydifferentinputs.

    Accordingtothelinearityprinciple,themagnitudeofaresponsedoesnotdependonthe

    baseline.LTIsystemsareunambiguouslydescribedbythemathematicaloperationof

    convolution(overlapintegral)ofaninputtimeserieswitharesponsefunction(RF),

    whichcorrespondsinsignalprocessingtermstoalinearfilter(seeAppendixEquation2).LTIsystemsconstituteamathematicalsimplificationofrealbiophysicalsystems,

    whichcontainmanyparametersthatcannotbeusefullyconstrainedfrommeasured

    data.WewillreportforeachmeasurehowcanitbedescribedbyaLTIsystem.

    3.3Modelinversion

    ManyPsPMsassumethatexperimentaleventsrapidlyengageapsychologicalprocess,

    whichthenfeedsintothephysiologicalsystemwithconstantlatencyandshape.Under

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    theseassumptions,theamplitudeofthepsychologicalinputcanbeestimatedina

    generallinear(convolution)model(Bachetal.,2009),similartostandardapproaches

    foranalysisoffMRIs(Friston,Jezzard,&Turner,1994).Inanutshell,theRFisconvolved

    withatimeseriesofimpulses(deltafunctions)centeredonexperimentaleventsfor

    eachcondition,andtheensuingtimeseriesformcolumnsinthedesignmatrixofa

    multipleregressionmodel.Theestimatedcoefficientofanindividualeventcolumn

    constitutestheamplitudeestimateforthatcondition(seeAppendixEquation3-5).

    Looselyspeaking,theRFisregressedontotheobservedresponse,andtheregression

    coefficientistheestimateoftheinputamplitude.Iflatencyand/orshapeofthe

    psychologicalinputcannotbeassumedtobeconstant,thentheyneedtobeestimatedas

    well,andtheinversionmodelbecomesnonlinear,forexample,inSCRmodelsforfear

    conditioning(Bach,Daunizeauetal.,2010)orstartleeyeblinkresponse(SEBR)models

    (Khemka,Tzovara,Gerster,Quednow,&Bach,2017).

    4Psychophysiologicalmodelsfordifferentmeasurements

    Table1givesanoverviewofthedifferentpsychophysiologicalmodelsproposeduntil

    today.

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    Table1:Psychophysiologicalmodelsdevelopeduntiltoday.PSR:pupilsizeresponses.SCR:skinconductanceresponses.HPR:Heartperiodresponses.RPR:respirationperiodresponses. 1RAR:respirationamplituderesponses.RFRR:respiratoryflowrateresponses.SEBR:startleeyeblinkresponses. 2Measure

    ment

    Psychological

    variable

    Neuralmodel Peripheralmodel Model

    inversion

    Software

    implementation

    Publishedin

    SCR Genericphasicarousal Instantaneousimpulse LTIsystemwithparameters

    fromempiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Bach,2014;Bach,Flandin,Friston,&

    Dolan,2009;Bach,Flandin,Friston,&

    Dolan,2010;Bach,Friston,&Dolan,2013

    Genericphasicarousal

    (validatedforfear

    conditioning)

    ConstrainedGaussian

    impulse

    LTIsystemwithparameters

    fromempiricaldata

    Variational

    Bayes

    PsPM Bach,Daunizeau,Friston,&Dolan,2010;

    Staib,Castegnetti,&Bach,2015

    Generictonicarousal

    (validatedforanxiety

    andcognitiveload)

    Gaussianimpulses

    withconstantshape

    andunconstrained

    onset

    LTIsystemwithparameters

    fromempiricaldata

    Variational

    Bayes

    PsPM Bach,Daunizeau,Kuelzow,Friston,&

    Dolan,2011;Bach,Friston,&Dolan,2010

    Generic Notspecified LTIsystemwithparameters

    fromtheoreticalconsiderations

    Deterministic

    inversefilter

    Ledalab Benedek&Kaernbach,2010a;Benedek&

    Kaernbach,2010b

    Generic Discreteimpulseswith

    unconstrainedonset

    LTIsystemwithparameters

    fromtheoreticalconsiderations

    Convex

    optimisation

    cvxEDA Greco,Valenza,Lanata,Scilingo,&Citi,

    2015

    PSR Luminanceadaptation Instantaneousimpulse Combinationof2LTIswith

    parametersfromempiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Korn&Bach,2016

    Attention Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    OLSestimation

    infrequency

    domain

    Pupil Hoeks&Levelt,1993

    Fearconditioning Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Korn,Staib,Tzovara,Castegnetti,&Bach,

    2017

    HPR Notyetspecified Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Paulus,Castegnetti,&Bach,2016

    Fearconditioning Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom GLM PsPM Castegnetti,etal.,2016

  • 12

    empiricaldata

    RPR Notyetspecified Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Bach,Gerster,Tzovara,&Castegnetti,2016

    RFRR Notyetspecified Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Bach,Gerster,Tzovara,&Castegnetti,2016

    RAR Notyetspecified Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Bach,Gerster,Tzovara,&Castegnetti,2016

    Fearconditioning Instantaneousimpulse LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    GLM PsPM Castegnetti,Tzovara,Staib,Gerster,&

    Bach,2017

    SEBR Genericstartlereflex Instantaneousimpulse

    withvariablelatency

    LTIwithparametersfrom

    empiricaldata

    Template

    matching/GLM

    PsPM Khemka,Tzovara,Gerster,Quednow,&

    Bach,2017

  • 13

    4.1Skinconductance 3

    4.1.1Forwardmodel 4

    Skinconductanceisoftenusedtoinferphasicortonicsympatheticarousalgeneratedby 5

    awiderangeofpsychologicalstimuliandtasks(Boucsein,2012).Openingofsweat 6

    glands,elicitedviathesympatheticnervoussystemwithnegligibleparasympathetic 7

    transmission,causesphasicincreasesofskinconductancethataretermedSCR(see 8

    Boucsein,2012,forthephysiologyofSCR).SlowCfiberscarryingimpulsestothesweat 9

    glandsaretermedsudomotor(SN),andtheiractivitycanbemeasuredbyintraneural 10

    recordings.Fromtheirendterminal,theneurotransmitteracetylcholinediffuses 11

    throughtheskintoreachsweatglands,aprocessonthetimescaleofuptoasecond.In 12

    thehistoryofpsychophysiologicalmodeling,itwasrecognizedearlyonthat 13

    nonoverlappingSCRcanbewelldescribedbyasimpleresponsefunction,and 14

    overlappingSCRcanbeseenasbeinggeneratedbyaLTIsystem(Alexanderetal.,2005; 15

    Bachetal,2009).AllpublishedSCRmodelshavethereforeassumedthatthemapping 16

    fromSNAtoSCR(butnotnecessarilyfrompsychologicalvariabletoSNA)iswell 17

    describedbyaLTIsystem. 18

    19

    Twotypesofresponsefunctionshavebeenproposed:onebasedonabiophysicalmodel 20

    ofthesweatgland,withparameterssetfromtheoreticalconsiderations(Alexanderet 21

    al.,2005;Benedek&Kaernbach,2010a,2010b;Grecoetal.,2015),andapurely 22

    phenomenologicalfunctionwithparametersfittedtoadatabaseof1,278SCRsfrom64 23

    individualsinsixdifferentexperimentalconditions(Bach,Daunizeauetal.,2010;Bach 24

    etal.,2009;Bach,Flandinetal.,,2010).Whiletheformerapproachappearstheoretically 25

    morerigorous,manyofthebiophysicalparameterswerenotknownfromphysiological 26

    researchandhadtobeguessed.Theensuingforwardmodelhasnotbeensystematically 27

    evaluated,anditisunclearhowwellthisresponsefunctionfitsactualSCR.Incontrast, 28

    thelattermodelisdefinedbyitsfittoempiricaldata.Thisphenomenologicalresponse 29

    functionismathematicallydescribedbyaGaussian-smoothedexponential(Bach, 30

    Flandinetal.,2010)orathird-order(linear,constant-coefficient)ordinarydifferential 31

    equation;seeAppendix-Equation6,7). 32

    33

    TherearegoodempiricalargumentstomotivatetheuseofLTIsystemstomodelthe 34

    SNA/SCRrelationship,providedthatSCRdataarehigh-passfiltered.Threekindsoftests 35

    havebeenexploitedtoevaluatetheforwardmodel.Indirecttestsmadetheauxiliary 36

  • 14

    assumptionthatSNburstsfollowexternalstimulationwithconstantshapeandlatency 37

    (thisassumptionisnotpartoftheLTIsystem).Thesetestsshowed,thatforshortevents 38

    (<1sduration)thatareseparatedbyatleast30s,morethan60%ofthevariancein 39

    (high-passfiltered)SCRcanbeexplainedunderaLTImodel(Bach,Flandinetal., 40

    2010),supportingtheplausibilityofthetimeinvarianceapproximation.Intheabsence 41

    ofstimulation,baselinevarianceexceededtheresidualvarianceunderstimulation, 42

    implyingthattheresidualvarianceisduetonoiseratherthanLTIviolations(Bach, 43

    Flandinetal.,2010).SCRtopairsofstimuliseparatedbydifferentintervals(2-9s)do 44

    notdependontheinterval,inlinewiththelinearityprinciple(Bach,Flandinetal., 45

    2010).Amoredirecttestofthetimeinvarianceprincipleisfurnishedbyintraneural 46

    recordings,whichshowthat60%-75%ofSCRvarianceisexplainedbyaLTImodelthat 47

    takesSNactivityasinput,althoughthisisstillsufferingfrominterferingnon-SN(e.g., 48

    vasomotornerve)activity(Gersteretal.,2017).Athirdapproachreliesonintraneural 49

    stimulationwhileblockinginterferingnervetrafficbyregionalanesthesia.Here,SNis 50

    stimulatedatdifferentrepetitionfrequencies,thussimultaneouslyaddressingthe 51

    linearityandtimeinvarianceprinciple.Inthiscase,93%-99%ofSCRvarianceis 52

    explainedunderaLTImodelwhenstimulationfrequencyisbelow0.6Hz.Abovethis 53

    stimulationfrequency,theLTImodelcannotbeusefullyappliedduetostrong 54

    nonlinearities(Gersteretal.,2017);however,thislimitationshouldbelargelyirrelevant 55

    formostpsychologicalexperimentswithslowerstimulationrates.Tosummarize,it 56

    appearsthatundersuitableconditions,aLTImodelisnotjustanapproximationbut 57

    ratheranaccuratedescriptionofbiophysicalrealityintheSNA/SCRsystem.Notably, 58

    tonicskinconductancecomponents,whicharefilteredoutinallmodelingapproaches, 59

    donotappeartobemodeledbyafiniteLTIsystem. 60

    61

    TheLTImodeldoesnotmaketheassumptionthatSCRshapeisconstantbetween 62

    individuals.Onthecontrary,allevidencesuggeststhatthisisnotthecase.Nevertheless, 63

    inferencebasedonacanonicalresponsefunctionalreadyprovidesbetterinferencethan 64

    operationalmethods.Wehaveshownthatthisinferencecanbefurtherimprovedby 65

    allowingsomevariabilitybetweenindividuals,butonlyifthepossibleindividual 66

    responsefunctionsareverystronglyconstrainedtoavoidoverfitting(Bachetal.,2013; 67

    Staib,Castegnetti,&Bach,2015). 68

    69

  • 15

    ForthemappingfrompsychologicalvariabletoSNA,threedifferentforwardmodels 70

    havebeendevelopedandevaluated.First,shortstimulielicitrapidSNAwithconstant 71

    Q6latency(Bachetal.,2009).Itappearsthatthemappingfrompsychologicalvariable 72

    toSCRislargelyinvarianttothetypeofexperimentstimulus(aversivewhitenoise 73

    bursts,aversiveelectricstimulation,aversivepictures,auditoryoddballs,andavisual 74

    detectiontask;Bach,Flandinetal.,,2010),whichmotivatestheuseofthismodelfor 75

    phasicarousalindependentoftheelicitingstimulusorexperiment.Forlongerstimulior 76

    anticipationofstimuli,amodelwithvariableSNAlatencyandshapecanbeused,and 77

    thesetwoparametersareestimatedfromtheexperimentaldata(Bach,Daunizeauetal., 78

    2010).Thismodelwasmotivatedspecificallytoanalyzefearconditionexperimentsin 79

    whichparticipantsareexposedtoconditionedstimuli(CS),oneofwhich(CS+)predicts 80

    anaversiveevent(US).Typically,thereisatimedelaybetweenCS+andUS,andso 81

    participantswillanticipatetheUSduringCS+and(toadiminishingextent)duringCS- 82

    presentationandexpressSCRatsome(unknownandpossiblyvariable)timepoint 83

    duringthisinterval.Notably(anddifferentfrommodelsdiscussedlater),responsesto 84

    CS+andCS-arethoughttobegovernedbythesamepsychologicalprocess,buttobe 85

    quantitativelydissimilar.Hence,inthisapplicationofthemodel,aconditioned 86

    sudomotornerveresponsetoeachCSisestimated,andthedifferenceintheiramplitude 87

    betweenCS+andCS-constitutestheinferenceonfearmemory.Finally,toaccountfor 88

    spontaneousSCRfluctuations,amodelisproposedinwhichconstant-shapeSNbursts 89

    occurwithvariableonsetandamplitude,whichareestimatedfromthedata(Bach, 90

    Daunizeauetal.,,2011). 91

    92

    4.1.2Inferenceonpsychologicalvariables 93

    Theconstant-latencyforwardmodelisinvertedinaGLMapproach(Bachetal.,,2009) 94

    andhasbeenevaluatedonindependentdatasets(Bach,2014;Bachetal.,2013)in 95

    comparisontodifferentpeak-scoringmeasures(Boucseinetal.,2012)andtomeasures 96

    fromthehybridLedalabapproach(Benedek&Kaernbach,2010a,,2010b).Predictive 97

    validitywasassessedforthecomparisonofnegativearousingversusneutralpicture 98

    presentation,positivearousingversusneutralpictures,picturepresentationversusno 99

    stimulus,andfearfulversusangryfacepresentation.Predictivevaliditywasdecisively 100

    higherfortheGLM-basedapproachonthemajorityofcomparisons,anditwasnever 101

    decisivelysurpassedbyanothermethodintheremainingcomparisons(Bach,2014).In 102

    anevaluationstudyfromanindependentlaboratory,aGLMapproachhadhigher 103

  • 16

    predictivevaliditythanpeak-scoringorLedalabfordistinguishingCS+andCS-in 104

    aversivelearning(Greenetal.,,2014).Fordistinguishingfivedifferentphasesofafear 105

    generalizationexperiment,peakscoringappearedtohavehigherpredictivevalidity 106

    (Greenetal.,2014).However,notethatthepredictivevalidityevaluationassumesthat 107

    distinguishabledifferentpsychologicalstatesarecreatedbytheexperiment,whichis 108

    lesswellestablishedforthelattermanipulation.Thisstudydidnotallowforassessing 109

    whetheranymethodwasdecisivelybetterorworsethananother.3 110

    111

    Theflexible-latencyforwardmodelisinvertedinavariationalBayesapproach(Bach, 112

    Daunizeauetal.,2010)andwasevaluatedonindependentfearconditioningdatasets 113

    (Staibetal,2015)incomparisontodifferentpeak-scoringmeasures(Boucseinetal., 114

    2012)andtomeasuresfromthehybridLedalabapproach(Benedek&Kaernbach, 115

    2010a,2010b).PredictivevaliditywasassessedforthecomparisonofCS+versusCS-, 116

    andwasfoundtobedecisivelyhigherforthemodel-basedapproachthanforpeak- 117

    scoringorLedalabmeasures(Staibetal.,2015). 118

    119

    Finally,theflexible-onsetmodelisinvertedwiththesamevariationalBayesapproach 120

    (Bach,Daunizeauetal.,2011)andcanbeusedtoinfertonicarousal,whichisoften 121

    operationalizedasthenumberofspontaneousskinconductancefluctuations(Boucsein 122

    etal.,2012).Thismethodwasevaluatedwithrespecttodistinguishingpublicspeaking 123

    anxietyfromrestornonpublicspeakinganxiety,andmentalloadfromrest.Predictive 124

    validityofthemodel-basedapproachandofanautomatedpeak-countmeasurewas 125

    comparable(Bach&Staib,2015).Furthermore,undertheperipheralLTImodel,the 126

    areaunderthecurveofatimeseriesequalsthenumberofspontaneousfluctuations 127

    timestheiramplitude.Whilethisrelationhasbeenempiricallyvalidated,thesamestudy 128

    alsoshowedthatthenumberofspontaneousfluctuationsaloneallowsbetterinference 129

    ontonicarousalthantheareaunderthecurve(Bach,Friston,&Dolan,2010). 130

    131

    4.1.3Futuredirections 132

    3Bayesfactorsarereportedinthisstudyaswell,buttheyarenotcomparablebetweenthemodelsevaluated.Comparisonofmodelevidenceisonlypossibleifthedependentvariableinthemodelisthesame(Burnham&Anderson,2004)butGreenetal.(2014)useestimatesofpsychologicalstateasdependentvariable,whichareobviouslydifferentbetweenmethods.

  • 17

    Theconstant-latencyGLMapproachappearsfairlymature.Ithasbeenoptimizedwith 133

    respecttomodelcomplexityanddatapreprocessing(Bachetal.,,2013)andevaluated 134

    bytwodifferentlaboratories(Bach,2014;Greenetal.,2014).Currentresearchfocuses 135

    onincrementalimprovements,suchasdatapreprocessingandmodelingof 136

    nonlinearitiesunderspecificconditionssuchasrapideventsuccession,orwhenthe 137

    sweatductsqualitativelychangetheirresponsebehavior(Tronstad,Kalvoy,Grimnes,& 138

    Martinsen,2013). 139

    140

    Theflexible-latencymodelisalsoinamaturestageandhasbeenoptimized(Staibetal., 141

    2015),butaformalevaluationbydifferentresearchlaboratoriesislacking.Intermsof 142

    theforwardmodel,aquestionremainsastounderwhatconditionsadditional 143

    complexityaffordedbyestimatingresponselatencyimprovesinferenceonthe 144

    psychologicalvariable(i.e.,Whatisthelevelofvariabilityinresponselatencythat 145

    shouldmotivatepreferringthismethodtotheconstant-latencyGLMapproach?).This 146

    questionisawaitingempiricalinvestigation.Aweaknessoftheflexible-latencymodelis 147

    itscomplexity,suchthatitisimpossibletoestimateallparametersatthesametimeon 148

    standardPCsandclustercores.Parametersarethereforeestimatedinatrial-by-trial 149

    fashionsuchthatestimationerrorsthatoccurinonetrialwillpropagateintothenext 150

    one.Whilesometechnicaltricksreduceadetrimentalimpactofthissequential 151

    estimation,itmaybepossibletoimproveonparameterestimationwithaglobal 152

    optimizationmethodthatevaluatestheentireparameterspaceatthesametime. 153

    154

    Finally,theflexible-onsetmodelistheleastmatureandhasbeenevaluatedononlya 155

    smallnumberofquestionsanddatasets;thereisroomforoptimizationofthismethod. 156

    157

    BeyondSCR,othermeasuresalsoallowinferenceonSNAand,thus,onthesame 158

    psychologicalvariables.Itremainstobedeterminedwhethermeasuressuchasskin 159

    potentialandskinsusceptance(Tronstadetal.,2013)orthememristorpropertiesofthe 160

    skin(Pabst,Tronstad,&Martinsen,2017)yieldadditionalinformationorcanhelp 161

    reducenoiseintheinverseinference. 162

    163

    4.2Pupilsize 164

    4.2.1Forwardmodel 165

  • 18

    Awiderangeofpsychologicalvariablesimpactsonpupilsize(e.g.,deGeeetal.,2014; 166

    Joshi,Li,Kalwani,&Gold,2016).Pupilsizeiscontrolledbytwoantagonistmuscles:the 167

    radialM.dilatatorpupillae,whichreceivessympatheticinnervationviapreganglionic 168

    neuronsfromthespinalcordandpostganglionicneuronsfromthesuperiorcervical 169

    ganglion,andthecircularM.sphincterpupillae,whichreceiveparasympatheticinput 170

    frompreganglionicneuronsin 171

    theEdinger–Westphalnucleuswithinthemidbrainandpostganglionicneuronsinthe 172

    ciliaryganglion(McDougal&Gamlin,2008).TheEdinger–Westphalnucleusreceives 173

    bothluminance-mediatedinputsfromtheretinaandappearstorelayinputsthatarenot 174

    relatedtoluminance(e.g.,fromthelocuscoeruleus;Joshietal.,2016;Liu,Rodenkirch, 175

    Moskowitz,Schriver,&Wang,2017).Thisinnervationmotivatesusingluminance 176

    changestoprobethebiophysicsofphasicpupilresponses.Thefactthatthepupilis 177

    controlledseparatelybybothbranchesoftheautonomicnervoussystem,andby 178

    antagonisticmuscleswithdifferentmechanicalproperties,alreadysuggeststhatpupil 179

    responsesmaybestbemodeledbytwoparallelLTIsystems.Asaparsimonious 180

    description,amodelisproposedthatdoesnotsplitthesystemintocontributionsofthe 181

    twomusclesbutratherseparatesaslowerdilation/constrictionresponsefromafaster 182

    componentthatonlyoccursforconstrictions(seeAppendixEquation9,10and 183

    parametersforPSR_dilandPSR_con;Korn&Bach,2016).Interestingly,theformer 184

    componentdirectly(exponentially)relatestoluminance,whilethecontributionofthe 185

    lattercomponentappearsindependentfromtheamountofluminancechange(Korn& 186

    Bach,2016).Becauseofthedifferenttimeconstantsofthetwosystems,themodel 187

    makesaninterestingcounterintuitiveprediction:lightflashesshouldleadtopupil 188

    constriction,butbriefdarknessperiodsshouldalsoleadtoconstriction,whenthefaster 189

    responseinducedbythereturntolightprecedestheslowerresponseinducedbythe 190

    darknessperiod.Indeed,thispredictionwasconfirmedbyexperimentalobservationin 191

    ourownlaboratory(Korn&Bach,2016)andbyothers(Barbur,Harlow,&Sahraie, 192

    1992).Thisforwardmodelexplainedaround60%ofsignalvariance,speakingtothe 193

    validityofLTIapproximation(Korn&Bach,2016).Furthermore,itwasusedtoinferthe 194

    neuralinputintothepupilsystemfordifferentpsychologicaltasks(visualdetection, 195

    auditoryoddballdetection,listeningtoemotionalwords).Theinferredinputlatency 196

    meaningfullyrelatedtoknownunderlyingpsychologicalprocesses(Korn&Bach,2016). 197

    Thisalsosuggeststhatthefasttimecourseofpupilresponsesimpliesanecessityto 198

    buildneuralforwardmodelsthataretosomeextentspecifictothepsychological 199

  • 19

    processstudied-different,forexample,fromtheunspecificSCRmodels-becausethe 200

    timeconstantsofthepsychologicalprocessesdiffer.Onesuchmodelwasdevelopedfor 201

    fearconditioning(Korn,Staib,Tzovara,Castegnetti,&Bach,2017).Here,wefoundthat 202

    CS-responsesaredifferentbetweenexperiments,dependingontheperceptualmodality 203

    andphysicalpropertiesoftheCS.However,theaddedimpactoftheCS+wasrather 204

    constantacrossexperimentsandcouldbemodeledwithaconstant-latencyCS-evoked 205

    neuralinputthatpeaksbetweenCSandUS(Kornetal.,2017).Thisneuralinput 206

    appearedtobetime-lockedtotheCS,fordifferentintervalsbetweenCSandUS. 207

    DifferentfromSCRmodels,thismeansthatthereisnocommonCSresponsethatdiffers 208

    onlyinamplitudebetweenconditions.Instead,themodelseekstoestimatetowhat 209

    extentaspecificCS+componentisexpressedoneach(CS+andCS-)trial.SincethisCS+ 210

    componentmaynotbeorthogonaltotheexperiment-specificCSresponse,thismeans 211

    thatallestimates(CS+andCS-)areonlyinterpretableuptoaconstant:itispossibleto 212

    interpretdifferencesbetweentrialsets,ortemporalchangesintheestimatedCS 213

    response,butnotthemagnitudeofresponseestimatesforindividualtrialsor 214

    conditions.Formathematicalconvenience,neuralandperipheralmodelarecollapsed 215

    intooneresponsefunction,whichmakesGLMinversionpossible(Kornetal.,2017;see 216

    AppendixEquation9andparametersforPSR_FC).Anotherpsychologicalmodelwith 217

    similarstructurebutadifferentresponsefunctionwasproposedtocapturetheimpact 218

    ofattentiononpupilsize(Hoeks&Levelt,1993). 219

    220

    4.2.2Inferenceonpsychologicalvariables 221

    PupilPsPMshavebeenusedfortwopurposes.Thefirstisdirectinferenceona 222

    psychologicalvariable.InferenceonCS+memoryinfearconditioningisimplementedin 223

    aGLMinversionapproach,andyieldspredictivevaliditysuperiortopeakscoringor 224

    area-under-the-curvemeasures(Kornetal.,2017).Giventheshortlatencyandsignal- 225

    to-noiselevelssimilarorbetterthanSCR,inferencecanbeperformedonasingle-trial 226

    level.Similarly,inferenceonattentionhasbeenusedinnumerousstudies(e.g.,deGeeet 227

    al.,2014,2017;Knapenetal.,2016),althoughtoourknowledgethismethodhasnot 228

    beensystematicallyinvestigatedandvalidatedbeyondtheinitialdevelopmentdataset 229

    (Hoeks&Ellenbroek,1993;Hoeks&Levelt,1993).Anotherapplication,distinctfromall 230

    othermodelspresentedinthisarticle,istoinferthetimecourseofapsychological 231

    process.Thisispossiblebecauseluminance-relatedresponsesaremediatedbynear- 232

    instantaneousneuralactivityandtherebyallowcharacterizingpupilbiomechanics. 233

  • 20

    Comparingameasuredpupiltimecoursewiththetimecourseofaluminance-related 234

    responsethereforeaffordsestimatingtheneuralinputintothepupillarysystem,and 235

    thusmakesinferenceonthedynamicsoftheunderlyingpsychologicalprocess(Korn& 236

    Bach,2016). 237

    238

    4.2.3Futuredirections. 239

    Pupil-sizemodelingisarelativelynewapproachandrequiresfurtherstudy. 240

    Importantly,anindependentvalidationofpsychologicalinferenceisyetlacking.PsPMs 241

    existforluminance-conditioned,fear-conditioned,andattention-relatedresponses,and 242

    appeartocruciallydependonthetimingofthepsychologicalprocessunderstudy. 243

    Potentially,pupil-sizemodelingthusoffersamoreprecisewindowintothetemporal 244

    dynamicsofcognitiveprocessesthanmanyotherpsychophysiologicalvariables.Finally, 245

    alotofresearchiscurrentlybeingdoneonpupilsizeanditsrelationtocognitive 246

    processes,inhumansandotherspecies(e.g.,Eldar,Cohen,&Niv,2013;Joshietal., 247

    2016).Itislikelythatnewmodelsandmethodswillemanatefromthisbasicresearch. 248

    249

    4.3Heartperiod 250

    4.3.1Forwardmodel 251

    Heartrateorheartperiodareoftenusedtoinferemotionalarousal,forexample,while 252

    watchingpicturesorduringfearconditioning(Berntson,Quigley,&Lozano,2007; 253

    Bradley,Codispoti,Cuthbert,&Lang,2001)andcanbemeasuredwith 254

    electrocardiogramorpulseoxymeters.Cardiacrhythmisgeneratedlocallyintheheart, 255

    butmodulatedunderslowersympatheticandfasterparasympatheticinfluence 256

    (Akselrodetal.,1981).Sympatheticstimulationfrequencyappearstolinearlyscalewith 257

    heartperiodchanges,notheartrate(Berntson,Cacioppo,&Quigley,1995).Therefore 258

    currentPsPMsforphasiccardiacresponsesmodelheartperiod,whichismappedonto 259

    thefollowingRspikeandlinearlyinterpolated.Itappearsthatvariousshortstimuli 260

    inducephasicheartperiodresponses(HPR),andsixresponsecomponentscouldbe 261

    identifiedinasystematicinvestigationseeAppendixEquation8andparametersfor 262

    HPR_E1-E6).However,neitherthisstudynorpreviousresearchbasedonoperational 263

    methodsallowadefiniteconclusionastowhichpsychologicalvariablesinfluenceeach 264

    ofthecomponentsandrelatedly,whetherthesecomponentsareindependently 265

    controlled.Incontrast,awell-replicatedphenomenonisfear-conditionedbradycardia 266

  • 21

    (Castegnettietal.,2016).Thisbradycardiaresponseappearstobeaddedtoastimulus- 267

    specificHPRthatoccursforbothCS+andCS-infearconditioning,similartowhatis 268

    observedforpupilsizeandwiththesamelimitationsforinterpretationofresponse 269

    estimates.However,differentfrompupilresponses,itappearstobetime-lockedtothe 270

    USwhentheCS-USintervalisvaried(Castegnetti,Tzovara,Staib,Gerster,&Bach,2017; 271

    Castegnettietal.,2016).Furthermore,relatingthebradycardiaresponsetothefirst 272

    responsecomponentelicitedbyshortstimulirevealedaputativeneuralinputthat 273

    peaksattheUS(Castegnettietal.,2016).Pragmatically,thePsPMforfear-conditioned 274

    HPRcollapsesaneuralandperipheralsystemintooneresponsefunction,allowingGLM 275

    inversion(seeAppendixEquation9andparametersforHPR_FC). 276

    277

    4.3.2Inferenceonpsychologicalvariables 278

    TherangeofpsychologicalvariablesthatcanbeinferredfromphasicHPRtoshort 279

    stimuliappearsunclearatpresent.Fear-conditionedbradycardiaisanotable,well- 280

    studiedexception.UsingtheGLMapproach,fearmemorycouldbeinferredwithhigher 281

    predictivevaliditythanwithpeak-scoringmethods(Castegnettietal.,2016).Unlikefor 282

    SCRandPSR,attemptstoperformsingle-trialanalysesinourownlaboratoryhavenot 283

    succeeded,probablybecauseheart-periodtimeseriesaredominatedbyrespiratory 284

    arrhythmia,andmanytrialsarerequiredtoreducetheimpactofthisnoisecomponent. 285

    286

    4.3.3Futuredirections 287

    ElucidatingtheforwardmodelforHPRappearsanimportanttaskbothinthecontextof 288

    PsPMsandoperationalapproaches.Thefidelityofinferenceonfearmemoryhasbeen 289

    demonstratedinseveraldatasetsbutrequiresindependentconfirmationfromdifferent 290

    laboratories.Castegnettietal.(2017)havesuggestedthatfear-conditionedbradycardia 291

    couldpotentiallybe-atleastpartly-inducedbyincreasedthoraxpressureinducedvia 292

    respirationamplituderesponses;thismaybeanotherinterestingavenueofresearch. 293

    294

    4.4Respirationmeasures 295

    4.4.1Forwardmodel 296

    Mostrespiratorypsychophysiologyresearchhasfocusedonhowpsychologicalstates 297

    onatimescaleof10-20suptominutesinfluencerespirationparameters(Boiten, 298

    Frijda,&Wientjes,1994;Grassmann,Vlemincx,vonLeupoldt,&VandenBergh,2015; 299

    Ritzetal.,2010;Vlemincx,VanDiest,&VandenBergh,2015;Wuyts,Vlemincx,Bogaerts, 300

  • 22

    VanDiest,&VandenBergh,2011),butrelativelylittleisknownaboutphasic 301

    respiratoryresponses.PsPMshavebeendevelopedforrespiratoryperiod,respiratory 302

    amplitude,andrespiratoryflowrateresponsestobriefexternalevents,allmeasured 303

    withasimplesingle-chestbeltsystemasstandardlyemployedinfMRIlaboratories(see 304

    AppendixEquation8andparametersforRPR,RAR_E,andRFRR).Externaleventscause 305

    responsesinthesethreemeasuresthatarecapturedwithLTIsystems,butasyetitis 306

    notclearwhichpsychologicalstatescouldbeinferredfromtheseresponses(Bach, 307

    Gerster,Tzovara,&Castegnetti,2016).Incontrast,wehaveshowninseveral 308

    experimentsthataCS+infearconditioningelicitsabiphasicrespiratoryamplitude 309

    responsethatcanbemodeledinaLTIsystem,thusallowingGLMinversion(Castegnetti 310

    etal.,2017)(seeAppendixEquation9andparametersforRAR_FC).Theapproachand 311

    itsinterpretationaresimilartothatforpupilsizeandheartperiod. 312

    313

    4.4.2Inferenceonpsychologicalvariables 314

    Itappearsthatfearmemorycanbeinferredfromrespirationamplituderesponses,and 315

    predictivevalidityofthisinferenceishigherforaGLMinversionthanpeakscoring 316

    (Castegnettietal.,2017);however,itislowerthanformanyotherpsychophysiological 317

    measures.AdistinctadvantageoftherespiratoryPsPMcouldbethatitonlyrequires 318

    single-chestbeltdata,whichisstandardlyavailableinmanyMRIscanners. 319

    320

    4.4.3Futuredirections 321

    Moreresearchisrequiredtoelucidatetherangeofpsychologicalvariablesthatcanbe 322

    inferredfromrespiratorymeasures.Modelingmoresophisticatedrespiratorymeasures 323

    couldbeaninterestingpossibility. 324

    325

    4.5Startleeyeblinkelectromyogram 326

    4.5.1Forwardmodel 327

    Differentfromthepreviouslydiscussedmeasures,whichareunderthedirectinfluence 328

    ofapsychologicalvariable,theimpactofpsychologicalvariablesonstartleeyeblinkis 329

    onlymodulatoryandrequireselicitationofastartleresponsetorevealit.Thisstartle 330

    eyeblinkresponse(SEBR)itselfhasratherstereotypicaldynamics,whileitsamplitudeis 331

    modulatedbydifferentpsychologicalvariables(Yeomans,Li,Scott,&Frankland,2002). 332

    Thismodulationhasbeensuggestedtobalancetheprotectiveutilityofthestartle 333

    responsewithitsmetabolicandopportunitycost(Bach,2015b).Importantly,SEBR 334

  • 23

    dissociatesCS+andCS-infearconditioning,aphenomenontermedfear-potentiated 335

    startle(Brown,Kalish,&Faber,1951).APsPMwasdevelopedtomodeltheimmediate, 336

    briefSEBRtostartleprobesintheabsenceofanypsychologicalmanipulation(Khemka 337

    etal.,2017).Thismodelexplainedabout60%ofsignalvarianceunderLTIassumptions. 338

    Forinference,theneuralinputwasallowedaflexiblelatency,tobettercaptureslight 339

    latencyvariationbetweenindividualsandtrials(Khemkaetal.,2017).Ascommoninthe 340

    literature,themodelassumesthattheshapeofSEBRisindependentofthepsychological 341

    orcognitivestate,whichonlyimpactsonitsamplitude. 342

    343

    4.5.2Inferenceonpsychologicalvariables 344

    ThisPsPMwasemployedtoinferfearmemory,bothduringacquisitionandmemory 345

    recallunderextinction(Khemkaetal.,2017).Predictivevalidityoftheinferencewas 346

    comparedtofourpeak-scoringmethodswithdifferentpreprocessingsteps.Foreachof 347

    threeexperiments,adifferentpeak-scoringmethodperformedbest,butacrossall 348

    experiments,thePsPMapproachyieldedhighestpredictivevalidity(Khemkaetal., 349

    2017). 350

    351

    4.5.3Futuredirections 352

    TheimpactofdifferentpreprocessingmethodsonSEBRanalysisappearsnotwell 353

    understood.ThisleadstoaheterogeneouspicturewhencomparingPsPMwithdifferent 354

    peak-scoringmethods,andshouldbeafocusoffutureresearch.Startle-independent 355

    eyeblinksareatypicalsourceofnoiseinSEBRresearch,andmodelingtheseeyeblinks 356

    couldbeanimportanttopicforfurtherinvestigation. 357

    358

    4.6Combiningpsychophysiologicalmodels 359

    Inpsychophysiologicalresearch,differentmeasurementmethodsareoftenused 360

    simultaneously(inthespiritofconvergentoperationalization),butnotcommonly 361

    combinedforstatisticalinferenceonapsychologicalvariable.InaPsPMapproach,this 362

    maybeapossibilityandcouldimproveinferenceundercircumstanceswhereseveral 363

    measuresareindicativeofthesamepsychologicalvariable.Inordertoenablesuch 364

    combination,itwouldbedesirabletoclarifyqualitativelythattwomeasuresare 365

    impactedbythesamepsychologicalvariable,andtoinvestigatequantitativelythe 366

    dimensionalstructureofthesemeasuresacrossdifferentindividuals. 367

    368

  • 24

    3695Discussion 370

    Psychologicalinvestigationreliesonsolvingtheinverseproblem:makinginferenceon 371

    essentiallyunobservablepsychologicalvariables.Psychophysiologybenefitsfrommany 372

    decadesofresearchontheforwardmappingfrompsychologicalvariablesonto 373

    physiologicalmeasures.Thishasallowedthebuildingofpreciseandexplicitforward 374

    models,whichcanbespecifiedinmathematicalformandinvertedtoyieldinferenceon 375

    thepsychologicalvariable:psychophysiologicalmodeling.Buildingonsimple 376

    experimentalmanipulationsthatyieldaknownpsychologicalstate,methodscanbe 377

    evaluatedintermsoftheirpredictivevalidity(i.e.,thefidelitywithwhichtheyrecover 378

    theknownstate).Thisallowscomparisonofoperationalaswellasmodel-based 379

    methodsandhasrevealedthatinmanycasesPsPMsallowmorepreciseinferencethan 380

    traditionaloperationalmethods,forexamplepeakscoring. 381

    382

    Asalimitation,thisconclusionisbasedonalimitednumberofstudiesanddatasets, 383

    mostofwhich-withoneexception(Greenetal.,2014)-comefromourlaboratoryand 384

    arethusbasedonthesamerecordingequipmentandrathercomparableexperimental 385

    procedures.ItispossiblethatthePsPMsandinversionmethodsdevelopedinthis 386

    contextoverfittheseexperimentalcircumstancesanddonotgeneralizewelltodata 387

    acquiredindifferentcontexts,forexample,usingdifferentexperimentaltimingsor 388

    involvingothertypesofartifacts.Notably,thesamelimitationappliestothevarietyof 389

    operationalmethodsthathaveoftenbeendevelopedinandforspecificlaboratories 390

    suchthatamultitudeofoperationalanalysismethodscoexistsintheliterature.Wehave 391

    providedexamplesforapplicationofthePsPMsindifferentlaboratories,whichprovides 392

    circumstantialevidencethatoverfittingisnotamajorissuefortheapproachpresented 393

    here.However,toentirelyruleoutsuchpossibility,itwouldbedesirabletocomparethe 394

    PsPMswithdifferentoperationalanalysesmethodsinmanyexperimentalsituations. 395

    396

    Researchonpsychophysiologicalmodelingunderlinesthenecessityforprecise 397

    specificationofforwardmodel,andthusforthedetailedandmeticulousworkofbasic 398

    psychophysiology.TheapplicationofPsPMsremainsrestrictedtosituationsinwhich 399

    thismappingiswellknown.Indeed,PsPMsexistonlyforasmallnumberof 400

    experimentalscenarios.However,theseincludestandardexperimentssuchasfear 401

    conditioningandpictureviewing,andmaywellcomprisealargeproportionofapplied 402

  • 25

    psychophysiologyresearch.Forthese,PsPMsofferimprovedinferencecomparedto 403

    currentlyusedmethods.Forexploratoryresearch,operationalmethodswiththeir 404

    flexibilitymaybemoreappropriate.However,asanadvantageofmodel-basedmethods 405

    theirprecisespecificationimplementationreducesresearcherdegreesoffreedom. 406

    Analysisflexibilityisaproblemrecognizedacrosstheentirefieldofpsychology 407

    (Simmons,Nelson,&Simonsohn,2011)andpossiblymoreprevalentwithflexible 408

    operationalmethods.Whilestandardizationofmethodsisanongoingeffort(Boucsein 409

    etal.,2012;Lonsdorfetal.,2017),PsPMoffersrationalcriteriabeyondcommunity 410

    consensusforchoosingthestandards,namely,thequalityoftheinference.Notably,all 411

    methodsdiscussedinthisreviewareavailableinopen-sourcetoolboxes,mostofthem 412

    intheMatlab-basedPsPMtoolbox(pspm.sourceforge.net). 413

    414

    Asaframeworkforevaluatingmethods,wehaveproposedtobenchmarktheir 415

    predictivevalidity,thatis,theirabilitytorecoverknownpsychologicalstates(Bach& 416

    Friston,2013).Wenotethatthisframeworkhaspotentiallymanymoreapplications 417

    thanevaluatingPsPMsorcomparingthemtooperationalmethods.Forexample,it 418

    allowspoweranalyses.Ifthefidelityofamethodisknowninastandardexperiment,it 419

    isoftenpossibletoderivebest-caseadditionalassumptionsthatdefineminimum 420

    samplesizesrequiredtoachieveadesiredpowerlevel.Wehaveprovidedan 421

    experimentalexampleforthisinthecontextofaninterventiontoreducesynaptic 422

    plasticityduringfearconditioning,asmeasuredwithSEBR(Bachetal.,2017).Asan 423

    importantinsight,poweranalysisbasedonpredictivevalidityresearchhasrevealed 424

    thattherequiredsamplesizes-especiallywhenusingtraditionaloperationalmethods- 425

    canbemuchhigherthanwhatisthestandardinthefield.Consequently,studiesnot 426

    basingtheirsamplesizeonthisorotherformalanalysesmaybeunderpowered. 427

    Anotherpotentialapplicationisqualitycontrol.Labscancomparetheirmeasurement 428

    methodsbetweeneachother,assuremeasurementfidelityovertime,orbenchmark 429

    researchtrainees,usingpredictivevalidityofstandardmeasures.Finally,apotentially 430

    powerfuluseofthisframeworkistheoptimizationofexperimentaldesign.Iftheeffect 431

    ofastandardexperimentonapsychologicalvariableisknownapriori,thenonecan 432

    chooseanexperimentaldesignthatbestallowsdetectingthiseffect.Asanexample,this 433

    approachcanhelptofindtheoptimalbalanceofretentiontrialstomeasurefear 434

    memoryrecall,forwhichwehaveprovidedanempiricalexample(Khemkaetal.,2017). 435

    436

  • 26

    Tosummarize,thefieldofpsychophysiologicalmodelingismovingrapidlyandhasin 437

    partsalreadymatured.Withthesedevelopments,wehopetohaveprovidedtask- 438

    unspecifictoolsthatfreeresearchers'resourcesfromhavingtodevelopdataanalysis 439

    proceduresforeverystudy,andinsteadfocusonthepsychologicalorcognitive 440

    questionstheywanttoanswer. 441

    442

    Acknowledgments 443

    Theauthorsthanktheircolleagueswhoovertheyearshelpedestablishingthesoftware 444

    PsPMandthemethodsdescribedinthisreview:JeanDaunizeau,RaymondJ.Dolan, 445

    GuillaumeFlandin,KarlJ.Friston,GabrielGräni,SaurabhKhemka,PhilippC.Paulus, 446

    LinusRüttimann,MatthiasStaib,AthinaTzovara. 447

    448

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    variability.Psychophysiology,52,657-666. 638Wuyts,R.,Vlemincx,E.,Bogaerts,K.,VanDiest,I.,&VandenBergh,O.(2011).Sighrate 639

    andrespiratoryvariabilityduringnormalbreathingandtheroleofnegative 640affectivity.IntJPsychophysiol,82,175-179. 641

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    644

    645Appendix 646

    647

    Modelevidence 648

    Toquantifymodelevidence,PsPMusesthefollowingidentitytocomputeAkaike 649

    InformationCriterion(AIC): 650

    wherenisthenumberofdatapointsinthepredictivemodel,Listhemaximumofthe 651

    likelihoodfunction,andkthenumberofparametersinthepredictivemodel.kis 652

    constantforallmethodsthatareevaluatedinamethodscomparison.Thepredictive 653

    modelusestheaprioridefinedpsychologicalvariableasdependentvariable(this 654

    ensuresitisthesameacrossallmethods),andthedesignmatrixcontainstheestimated 655

    psychologicalvariableand(possiblysubject-specific)interceptterms. 656

    657

    LTIsystems 658

    Lineartimeinvariantsystemsaredefinedbythefollowingconvolutionoperation: 659

    whereu(t)istheinputintothesystemattimet,histheimpulseresponsefunction(RF), 660

    andτisadummyvariableoverwhichintegrationisperformed.Notethatsinceweare 661

    dealingwithacausalsystem(i.e,.intime),wehaveexplicitlysetthelowerlimitofthe 662

    !"# = −2 ln ! + 2! = ! ln !""! + 2! (1)

    ! ! = !×ℎ = ! ! − ! ℎ ! d!!

    ! (2)

  • 31

    integraltozero,suchthataninputthatoccursaftertcanhavenoimpactuponthe 663

    outputattimet. 664

    665

    GLM 666

    AGLMcanbewrittenas 667

    whereYisthevectorofobservations,βisavectorofinputamplitudeparameters,andϵ 668

    istheerror.Xisthedesignmatrixinwhicheachcolumnisobtainedbyconvolving 669

    impulsefunctionsatknowntimepointswitheachcomponentoftheRF.Eachcolumn 670

    takestheform: 671

    where!!(!)istheneuralinputwithunitamplitudeforconditioni,andjistheindexof 672theRFcomponent.Finally,Xalsocontainsacolumnfortheintercept.Themaximum- 673

    likelihoodamplitudeestimates!canbecomputedusingtheMoore-Penrose 674pseudoinverse!!,forexampleimplementedintheMatlabfunctionpinv.m: 675

    676

    Skinconductanceforwardmodel 677

    (a)PhenomenologicalRFdescribedasaGaussian-smoothedexponential: 678

    withestimatedparameters:!! = 3.0745 !forpeaklatency;! = 0.7013fordefinitionof 679therisetime;!! = 0.3176 and!! = 0.0708todefinethetwodecaycomponents. 680(b)PhenomenologicalRFdescribedasthird-order(linear,constant-coefficient)ordinary 681

    differentialequation: 682

    with!! = 1.342052,!! = 1.411425,!! = 0.122505,!! = 1.533879 683 684

    ! = !" + ! (3)

    ! = !!(!)×ℎ!(!) (4)

    ! = !!! (5)

    ℎ ! ∝ ! ! − !!

    !!! ! + !! ! !",

    ! ≥ 0,

    ! ! = 12!" !! !!!!

    !!!! ,

    !! ! = !!!!

    (6)

    ! = !!! + !!! + !!! − ! ! − !! = 0 (7)

  • 32

    ModelswithGaussianresponsefunctions 685

    Gaussianfunction: 686

    Parametersseetable(HPR_E1-6:constant-latencyheartperiodresponses;RPR: 687

    respirationperiodresponses;RAR_E:constant-latencyrespirationamplituderesponses; 688

    RFRR:respiratoryflowrateresponses). 689

    Responsefunction(RF) ParametersofGaussianFunction

    !(mean) !(standarddeviation)HPR_E1 1.0 1.9

    HPR_E2 5.2 1.9

    HPR_E3 7.2 1.5

    HPR_E4 7.2 4.0

    HPR_E5 12.6 2.0

    HPR_E6 18.85 1.8

    RPR 4.20 1.65

    RAR_E 8.07 3.74

    RFRR 6.00 3.23

    690

    Modelswithgammaresponsefunctions 691

    Gammafunction: 692

    Parametersseetable(HPR_RC:fear-conditionedheartperiodresponses;PSR_dil: 693

    luminance-evokedpupildilation;PSR_con:luminance-evokedpupilconstriction;PSR_FC: 694

    fear-conditionedpupilsizeresponses;RAR_FC:fear-conditionedrespirationamplitude 695

    responses;SEBR:startleeyeblinkresponses).Notethattheamplitudeparameterisleftfree 696

    forallmodelsotherthantheluminancemodelsinwhichithasaphysicalinterpretation. 697

    698

    Responsefunction(RF) ParametersofgammaFunction

    !(shape) !(scale) !!(onset) !(amplitude)

    ! = 1! 2! !! !!!

    !!!! (8)

    ! = ! − !!!!!!!

    !!!!!

    !!Γ ! (9)

  • 33

    HPR_FC 48.5 0.182 -3.86 -

    PSR_dil 2.40 2.40 0.2 0.77

    PSR_con 3.24 0.18 0.2 0.43

    PSR_FC 5.94 0.75 0.002 -

    RAR_FC(early) 2.570×10! 3.124×10!! −8.024×10! -RAR_FC(late) 3.413 1.107 7.583 -

    SEBR 3.5114 0.0108 -

    699

    Modelforsteady-statepupilsize 700

    701where!isthezscoredsteady-statepupildiameterand!!is the respective illuminance 702level in (in [!"] ). The parameter values are: 703! = 49.79;! = −0.50 !!" ;! = −1.05. 704 705 706

    ! !! = ! + !!!!! (10)