psychology of personal decision-making. more ted! – barry schwartz ▪ “the paradox of...
TRANSCRIPT
Decision BasicsPsychology of Personal Decision-Making
Agenda
More TED! – Barry Schwartz ▪ “The Paradox of Choice”
Decisions since last class? Decision basics
Decisions
All decisions have alternatives
Decisions
All decisions have alternatives, values
Decision
All decisions have alternatives, values, and uncertainty!
Facts vs. Values
What you think is true:
Facts vs. Values
…Can be very different from what is
actually true
Two Features of Decision-Making
#1: Problem structuring ▪ Identification of: ▪ Alternatives▪ Values that differentiate alternatives▪ Uncertain events
BEAUTYDullness
Two Features of Decision-Making
#2: Evaluation ▪ Weighing: ▪ Desirability of outcomes ▪ Uncertain events
BEAUTYDullness
Aha! Moments with Other Problems
Are the means good enough?
Decision problems:▪ Hard to determine if solutions are good
enough!
PORTLAND
Seatt
le
Are the means good enough?
Decision problems:▪ Hard to determine if solutions are good
enough!
PORTLAND
Seatt
le
2 Decision Types
#1 Multi-attribute decisions▪ Involve trade-offs between values
2 Decision Types
#2 Risky decisions▪ Deal with uncertainty and the FUTURE
=
=
=
=
Decisions, Evolution, and Work
We haven’t evolved into decision analysts… it takes work and cognitive tools!
…Capacity of judging rightly in matters relating to life and conduct; soundness of judgment in the choice of means and ends.
Wisdom defined:
Common Objections to Decision Analysis…
Walt Whitman - “Be a more of a free spirit to better appreciate life”▪ Easier to appreciate life this way in between
decisions, not during them
Analyzing decisions places too much weight on what is quantifiable and ignores the other stuff▪ Decision analysis quantifies the
“unquantifiable”
Decision Analysis
Decision tables
“WEEDY ROOMMATES”
+o
Authenticity
Breathability
Control Harmony
o?
+o
o o