psp presentation 2016 final
TRANSCRIPT
Bulwarks, Agility & ForesightPSP 2016 Keynote
Joseph J. EspositoPartner, STM Advisers LLC
Washington, D.C. | February 3, 2016
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Three Hypothetical Organizations1. For-profit publisher; revenue=$100
million
2. Not-for-profit society publisher; revenue=$25 million
3. Publishing start-up
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BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial Publisher ? ? ?
Society Publisher ? ? ?
Publishing Start-up ? ? ?
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Publishers Under Siege (the short list)
Open access movementThe militant librarianAssault on copyright
Political communitariansTech companies
Nasty PR on pricing (esp. for textbooks)Hostile media environmentFunding agency interference
And so on, ad infinitum
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BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial Publisher ? ?
Society Publisher ? ?
Publishing Start-up ? ? ?
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YES
?
BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial Publisher ? ?
Society Publisher ? ?
Publishing Start-up ? ? ?
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YES
YES
The Bulwark of Capitulation
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BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial Publisher YES ? ?
Society Publisher YES ? ?
Publishing Start-up
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YESNO ASSERTED
“Agile” as Metaphor
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“Agility” is inversely related to foresight.
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Start-ups . . .May be eating everybody’s lunchInnovate faster than established
companiesMay have little room to growCan’t use a bulwark strategy
No assets to defend!
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Bulwarks . . .Are an essential component of an
established company’s strategyTend to monopolize the bandwidth
of senior executivesLook to the past, not to the future
NB: Investors value future earningsMust be complemented by vigorous
future-oriented strategies, that is, by foresight
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BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT
Commercial Publisher YES REACTIVE ESSENTIAL
Society Publisher YES DIFFICULT ESSENTIAL
Publishing Start-up NO YES ASSERTED
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The Black Art of Foresight
“The Fortune Teller,” Georges de la Tour. c. 1630
Developing Business ForesightSeek multiple inputs
OutsidersThe rank and file
Place lots of small betsStudy other segments of the publishing
industry for new ideasPut your best people on the new activitiesBe on the lookout for entrants from left field
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What’s on My Own Screen Now?
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A Few Things to Watch ForData scienceNetwork modelImplications of large
end-user databaseMobile-based
control panelPotential for
disruption in institutional ebook market
Contact InformationJoseph J. EspositoPartner, STM Advisers LLC
http://[email protected]@josephjesposito
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