PS101

The scrubbers outcome

Clean Air Act of 1977 in effect mandated scrubbers– delegated the decision to EPA which, given the

constraints, had little or no choice Short-term consequences

– dirtier air in the East – cleaner air in the West – higher electricity costs*

Longer-term consequences– scrubber technology improved, but...– overall effectiveness still questioned

» SO2 and particulates removed. With latter also go alkalines. Net effects unclear

Tradable permits regulatory mechanism of choice now, with reservations…objections [distribution]

PS101

Two theories of government decision-making

Preferences(interests)

Policy(any constraints on economic or social activity)

GOVERNMENT

Public policy perspectiveStructured pluralism perspective

later

The scrubbers case suggests that decision-making within the black box is driven at least as much by input-side, constituency-specific distributive concerns as by output-side, nation-as-a-whole efficiency concerns.

PS101

Approximation of public policy perspective

Clean air

Low cost

NSPS

Existing plants

technological constraint

The present (approximately)

Low cost

NSPS

Old plants on average

The future (approximately)

LSC

Scrubbers

Clean air

Expected consequences of new policies

PS101

Progress report

What determines whether interests will become active on a given issue? – interest group analysis

» {Wilson/Lowi “nature of politics”}» The PD / collective action problem (p > c/b)» The interest group spreadsheet

What determines whether and how policy will change?– collective choice analysis within institutions

» voting theory

What determines whether activity will have an impact?– knowledge about political actors’ concerns– strategies for conveying information and other valued

resources