ps 0500: nuclear weapons - william spaniel · 2017-08-10 · ps 0500: nuclear weapons william...
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PS 0500: Nuclear Weapons
William Spaniel
https://williamspaniel.com/classes/worldpolitics/
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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United States (1945)
• Manhattan Project
• Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings
• Would have been a lot worse if the Nazi scientists had won the race
– …but fortunately the Nazis were Naziing
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Soviet Union (1949)
• Manhattan Project spies
• US knew the Soviets were developing a bomb but chose not to launch preventive war
– Immediately after WWII
– No intelligence
• Cold War starts in earnest
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United Kingdom (1952)
• Tube Alloys
• Agreement with the United States
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France (1960)
• France and the United States do not have as intimate a relationship as the U.S. and the U.K.
• France sought strategic independence
– Therefore, nukes
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China (1964)
• Sino-Soviet split
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India (1974)
• India does not like Pakistan very much
• Tested the “Smiling Buddha,” a “peaceful nuclear explosion,” in 1974
• Remained mostly dormant until 1998. (Hold that thought…)
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Israel (1979)
• Israel does not have nuclear weapons
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South Africa (1979)
• The Vela Incident
– A US satellite (Vela Hotel) detected a flash in the Atlantic Ocean between South Africa and Antarctica
• Built due to concerns of civil war spillover from Angola
• Dismantled at the end of Apartheid
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• Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus had nuclear weapons on their soil during the Soviet Union’s breakup
• Moscow still had command control
• Countries accepted cash to dismantle the weapons and forgo native nuclear development
Soviet Successor States
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Pakistan (1998)
• Five weeks after India’s nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan tested six bombs
• Pakistan is now “too nuclear to fail”
• A.Q. Khan network
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North Korea (2006)
• Conducted crummy tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013
• Scarier tests twice in 2016 and once in 2017
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2006
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2009
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9/2016
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2017
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North Korea (2006)
• Conducted crummy tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013
• Scarier tests twice in 2016 and once in 2017
• But a crummy bomb on Seoul…
• At one point agreed to trade us their bombs for a billion pounds of food (seriously)
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Iran (2018)
• ?
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Questions
Macro
• How do nuclear weapons affect the world system?
• Do nuclear weapons promote peace?
• Would the Cold War been a hot war without nuclear weapons?
Micro
• Why do states choose to proliferate?
• What can we do to stop it?
• How do we best handle North Korea and Iran today?
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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Mutually Assured Destruction
States live in a world of mutually assured destruction if:
1. Both states are self-preserving
2. Both states have large stockpiles of nuclear weapons
3. Each state has a secure second strike; no state achieve a “splendid” first strike
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• The United States had three methods of nuclear retaliation
– Strategic bombers
– Intercontinental ballistic missiles
– Submarine-launched ballistic missiles
The Strategic Triad
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• Under these conditions, no side would want to start a large-scale war
– If I start a war, I face enormous nuclear retaliation
• Worse than a disadvantageous peace
– If my opponent starts a war, he faces enormous nuclear retaliation
• Worse than a disadvantageous peace
Everyone, Calm Down
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• Larger costs: easier to reach bargained settlement
Bargaining Model of War
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pUSA pUSA– cUSA pUSA+ cUSSR
Bargaining Range
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pUSA pUSA– cUSA pUSA+ cUSSR
Bargaining Range
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• Promoting nonproliferation may be a waste of time
– If we really just want to stabilize the world and minimize the number of wars, spreading nuclear weapons might be the way to do it
Policy Implication
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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Alternate Hypothesis
• War between major powers is obsolete
– Two major powers cannot fight wars with one another because the costs will outweigh whatever possible benefit there is
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Alternate Hypothesis
• Nuclear weapons do not change this
– Mueller: “A jump from a fiftieth-floor window is probably quite a bit more horrible to think about than a jump from a fifth-floor one, but anyone who finds life even minimally satisfying is extremely unlikely to do either.”
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Most Deadly Wars
1. World War II: 16.6 million dead
2. World War I: 8.5 million dead
3. Iran-Iraq: 1.3 million dead
4. Vietnam: 1 million dead
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pUSA pUSA– cUSA pUSA+ cUSSR
Bargaining Range Before Modern Era
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pUSA pUSA– cUSA pUSA+ cUSSR
Bargaining Range
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pUSA pUSA– cUSA pUSA+ cUSSR
Bargaining Range with Nukes
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Policy Prescription
• Suppose mutually assured destruction is not necessary to maintain peace
• Should we have nukes?
– Accidents?
– Costs?
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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If nuclear weapons aren’t very useful, should we have them?
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Nuclear Downsides
1. Costs of nuclear weapons
2. Accidental nuclear warfare
3. Rogue nuclear weapons
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Costs of a Nuclear Program
• Nukes are not cheap
– Costs of development
– Costs of delivery
– Costs of maintenance
• Total cost of US program (1945-1998): $7 trillion (2012 dollars)
– Still spend around $16 billion per year
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Risky Business
• Unlike conventional weapons, it is easy to accidentally destroy the world with nuclear weapons
– Dr. Strangelove and fluoride
– Stanislav Petrov and the 1983 Soviet false alarm
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Missing Weapons?
• During the height of the Cold War, 68,000 nuclear weapons were active in the world
• Now down to 4,100
– Less concern about having massive retaliation capability
– More concern about losing a weapon
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Nuclear Realities
• No one in Washington is seriously interested in dismantling all American warheads
• The talk about doing so is just that—talk
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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Why Not Proliferate?
1. Threat of preventive war
2. Costs of proliferation
3. Bribes
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Preventive War
• Previously: exogenous power shifts cause preventive war if the shift is too large relative to the costs of conflict
• If shift is endogenous and visible, proliferator internalizes the credible preventive war threat and does not build
• No concessions necessary
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Preventive War
• Previously: exogenous power shifts cause preventive war if the shift is too large relative to the costs of conflict
• If shift is endogenous and visible, proliferator internalizes the credible preventive war threat and does not build
• No concessions necessary
Too Hot
How big is the power shift?
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Costs
• Nuclear weapons are not free
• Proliferation is an investment in the future
• If additional coercive power is not worth cost, proliferator does not build
• No concessions necessary
Too Hot
How big is the power shift?
Too Cold
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Bribes
• Previously: more power => more concessions
• Why not just offer concessions as if proliferator already had nuclear weapons?
– Proliferator has no incentive to build
– Opponent doesn’t have to deal with another nuclear country
Too Hot
How big is the power shift?
Too Cold Just Right?
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Preventive War
• Previously: exogenous power shifts cause preventive war if the shift is too large relative to the costs of conflict
• If shift is endogenous and visible, proliferator internalizes the credible preventive war threat and does not build
• No concessions necessary
Too Hot
How big is the power shift?
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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[clip]
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Simple Soccer Penalty Kicks
• The striker aims left or aims right
• The goalie dives left or dives right
• Assume the striker and goalie are superhuman. How should they play?
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Guessing Games!
• Penalty kicks are a guessing game
– Makes players act randomly (but intelligently)
• Is preventive war also?
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Outline
• The Nuclear Club
• Mutually Assured Destruction
• Obsolescence Of Major War
• Nuclear Pessimism
• Why Not Proliferate?
• Mixed Strategies
• The Iraq War
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Trivia Time!
• What was the original official military name for the Iraq War?
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Trivia Time!
• What was the original official military name for the Iraq War?
Operation
Iraqi
Liberation
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Trivia Time!
• What was the original official military name for the Iraq War?
Operation
Iraqi
Liberation
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Status Quo
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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Status Quo
War Payoffs
War Payoffs & Wasted
Costs
Successful Power Shift
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War Payoffs
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Mistaken Preventive
War
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What Are You Buying?
• Do you accept that the U.S. should have invaded Iraq if Iraq had a WMD program?
• Do you accept that the U.S. could not adequately monitor Iraqi activity?
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What Are You Buying?
• Do you accept that the U.S. should have invaded Iraq if Iraq had a WMD program?
• Do you accept that the U.S. could not adequately monitor Iraqi activity?
• If yes, you accept that mistaken preventive war is rational
– It just looks silly after the fact
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What Are You Buying?
• Do you accept that the U.S. should have invaded Iraq if Iraq had a WMD program?
• Do you accept that the U.S. could not adequately monitor Iraqi activity?
• If yes, you accept that mistaken preventive war is rational
– It just looks silly after the fact