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PRX The ProExporter Network ® Grain, Oilseed & Biofuel Fundamentals

Updated 7/10/20

PRXGrain Market Overview

US Major GrainsCrop Years 2019/20 & 2020/21with USDA Jul 10, 2020 WASDE

PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

© 2020 PRX Report not intended as trade recommendation. Analysis based in part on public data and PRX best judgement.

PRX The ProExporter Network ® Grain, Oilseed & Biofuel Fundamentals 07-10-20

PRX Forecast Summary, Major Crops, New Crop YearPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

US CORN US SORGHUM US SOYBEANS US WHEAT

Item PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX PRX

Unit 19-20 20-21 19-20 20-21 19-20 20-21 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 2221 2175 64 25 909 620 1080 1044

Area planted thou ac 89700 92006 5265 5620 76100 83825 45158 44250

Area harvested thou ac 81322 84023 4675 4845 74951 83020 37162 36678

Yield bu/ac 167.4 175.4 73.0 72.3 47.4 50.4 51.7 49.7

Production mil bu 13617 14738 341 350 3552 4181 1920 1824

Imports mil bu 45 25 0 0 15 15 105 139

Supply mil bu 15883 16938 405 375 4476 4815 3105 3007

Feed/Residual Use mil bu 5621 6000 90 85 101 135 134 151

Industrial Use mil bu 6312 6662 80 50 2155 2160 962 964

of which, fuel ethanol mil bu 4802 5128 80 50

mil gals 13618 14593 231 145

Total Domestic Use mil bu 11933 12662 170 135 2256 2295 1096 1115

Foreign Exports mil bu 1775 2150 210 220 1601 2050 965 950

Total Use mil bu 13708 14812 380 355 3857 4345 2061 2065

Carry-out mil bu 2175 2126 25 20 620 470 1044 942

US Farm Price cts/bu 360 335 325 335 855 850 458 460

PRX supply-demand factors are based on independent analysis, and will frequently be different than USDA's.



Soybean and Corn Area Planted & Value, 1978-2020PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21Area Planted Soybeans mil ac 55 70 63 58 63 74 72 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 76.1 83.8 Corn mil ac 79 84 83 74 72 80 82 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 92.0 Subtotal mil ac 133 154 147 132 134 154 154 170.7 177.4 180.3 178.0 165.8 175.8

Supply Soybeans bil bu 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.8 Corn bil bu 6.4 8.7 10.5 9.3 9.0 11.6 13.2 15.4 16.9 16.9 16.5 15.9 16.9

Farm Price Soybeans $/bu 4.92 7.57 5.05 5.74 6.77 4.54 5.66 8.95 9.47 9.33 8.48 8.55 8.50 Corn $/bu 2.54 3.12 2.23 2.28 3.24 1.85 2.00 3.61 3.36 3.36 3.61 3.60 3.35

Crop Supply Value Soybeans $bil 9 16 12 12 17 14 19 37 43 44 41 38 41 Corn $bil 16 27 23 21 29 22 26 56 57 57 60 57 57 Subtotal $bil 25 43 36 34 46 35 45 93 100 101 101 95 98 Value Soy + Corn $/acre 186 282 244 255 344 230 295 543 562 561 567 576 555

Area Planted Principal Crops* mil ac 318 329 318 319 319 318 319 303 312 Share Soy + Corn pct 40% 47% 48% 53.5% 55.6% 56.6% 55.8% 54.8% 56.4% *USDA-NASS current data series for "Principal Crops" begins in 1993

Area planted of corn and soybeans increases 10 million acres from last year.



US Major Field Crops Area Planted, 01-02 to 20-21 Crop YearsPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Crop All Feedgrains Oilseeds Corn + Total All Hay Principal Totalyear Wheat Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Total Soy Sunseed Canola Total Soy Cotton Major & Other Crops CRP w/CRP

mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac01-02 59.4 75.7 10.3 5.0 4.4 95.3 74.1 2.6 1.5 78.2 149.8 15.8 248.7 63.5 324.6 33.6 358.202-03 60.3 78.9 9.6 5.0 5.0 98.5 74.0 2.6 1.5 78.0 152.9 14.0 250.8 63.9 327.3 34.0 361.203-04 62.1 78.6 9.4 5.4 4.6 98.0 73.4 2.3 1.1 76.8 152.0 13.5 250.4 63.4 325.7 34.1 359.804-05 59.6 80.9 7.5 4.5 4.1 97.0 75.2 1.9 0.9 77.9 156.1 13.7 248.3 61.9 322.3 34.7 357.005-06 57.2 81.8 6.5 3.9 4.2 96.3 72.0 2.7 1.2 75.9 153.8 14.2 243.6 61.6 317.6 34.9 352.506-07 57.2 78.3 6.5 3.5 4.2 92.4 75.5 2.2 0.9 78.6 153.8 15.3 243.6 60.6 315.6 36.0 351.607-08 60.5 93.5 7.7 4.0 3.8 109.1 64.7 2.1 1.2 68.0 158.3 10.8 248.3 61.0 320.4 36.8 357.208-09 63.2 86.0 8.3 4.2 3.2 101.7 75.7 2.5 1.0 79.2 161.7 9.5 253.6 60.1 325.0 33.7 358.709-10 59.2 86.4 6.6 3.6 3.4 100.0 77.5 2.0 0.8 80.3 163.8 9.1 248.6 59.8 319.3 31.3 350.610-11 53.6 88.2 5.4 2.9 3.1 99.6 77.4 2.0 1.4 80.8 165.6 11.0 244.9 59.9 316.7 31.2 347.9

11-12 54.4 91.9 5.5 2.6 2.5 102.5 75.0 1.5 1.1 77.7 167.0 14.7 249.3 55.7 315.1 31.1 346.312-13 55.3 97.3 6.2 3.6 3.0 110.2 77.2 1.9 1.8 80.9 174.5 12.3 258.7 56.3 326.3 29.5 355.813-14 56.2 95.4 8.1 3.5 3.0 110.0 76.8 1.6 1.3 79.8 172.2 10.4 256.4 57.9 324.9 26.8 351.714-15 56.8 90.6 7.1 3.0 3.0 103.7 83.3 1.6 1.7 86.6 173.9 11.0 258.1 57.1 326.4 25.4 351.915-16 55.0 88.0 8.5 3.3 2.9 102.6 82.7 1.9 1.8 86.3 170.7 8.6 252.5 54.4 319.0 24.2 343.216-17 50.1 94.0 6.7 3.1 2.8 106.6 83.4 1.6 1.7 86.7 177.4 10.1 253.5 53.2 319.0 23.9 342.917-18 46.1 90.2 5.6 2.5 2.6 100.9 90.2 1.4 2.1 93.6 180.3 12.7 253.3 52.8 318.3 23.4 341.818-19 47.8 88.9 5.7 2.5 2.7 99.9 89.2 1.3 2.0 92.5 178.0 14.1 254.2 52.8 319.3 22.6 341.919-20 45.2 89.7 5.3 2.6 2.8 100.3 76.1 1.4 2.0 79.5 165.8 13.7 238.7 52.4 302.6 22.6 325.220-21 44.3 92.0 5.6 2.6 3.1 103.3 83.8 1.5 1.9 87.2 175.8 12.2 247.0 52.4 311.9 22.0 333.9Change from previous year, based on PRX forecast

-0.9 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.7 0.2 -0.2 7.7 10.0 -1.6 8.3 0.0 9.3 -0.6 8.7

Latest crop year based on latest USDA-NASS suvey data and best judgment of PRX.




0

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100

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140

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Soybean areaexported to China

Soybean areaplanted for otherthan ChinaCorn "base acres" inCRP, per USDA-ERS-AREICorn area for fuelethanol (adj. ForDDG)Corn area for PaidDiversion Programs

Corn area plantedexcl Govt Prog &RFS & NAFTACorn area forNAFTA Imports,Corn Equiv

US CORN & SOYBEAN AREA PLANTED, WITH CORN AREA SET-ASIDE for GOV'T PROGRAMS, plus CURRENT DEMAND at POLITICAL RISKMil ac

© PRX 2020, File PRX_US_Reference_Start.xls, Jul-10-20

CCC Paid Feedgrain Diversion programs of 1960s, 70s, 80s & 90s to

offset SURPLUS PRODUCTION

Can the area planted for corn and soybeans remain at about 180 mil ac if total demand drops due to negative outcomes of any main political risks now

facing us (affecting ~30% of the total AP)?

(1) Soy area for soybean exports to China, 14% if China continues purchasing soybeans

as part of Phase 1 trade deal

(2) Corn area for ethanol, adj. for DDG fed, falls to 12% due to COVID-

19 reducing gasoline demand

(3) Corn area for corn exports & equiv to CN & MX (USMCA takes

effect July 1, 2020), 4%


Corn Area Planted Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Corn Area Planted, 000 AcState 2019 2020 Change

IA 13500 14000 500KS 6400 6100 -300MN 7800 8100 300MO 3200 3500 300ND 3500 2400 -1100NE 10100 9800 -300SD 4350 5400 1050WI 3800 4000 200 WCB 52650 53300 650

IL 10500 10900 400IN 5000 5400 400KY 1550 1550 0MI 2000 2300 300OH 2800 3600 800 ECB 21850 23750 1900

NE 3874 3840 -34

SE 2175 2250 75

SC 5840 5540 -300

For 2020 US Corn Area Planted is forecast to be up 2306 thou acres.West 3175 3190 15

US 89700 92006 2306


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-35

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-300

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-1100

-300 13

-15

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800

50

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20

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1050

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-100

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30

200

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-10


The corn yield trend is increasing about 2.1 bushel/acre.


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70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26

Stacked GeneVarieties, shareof all seeds(USDA-NASS)Actual, or latestPRX

PRX adoptedtrend, 1975-2019

United StatesForecast

Adoption of GMO seeds begins in mid-90s, stacked genes in 2000s, slowed in 2010, big jump in 2013.

US Corn Yield & Trends, 1970-2019Bushels per acre PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Share by Stacked Varieties, percent


Corn Production Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Corn Production, Mil BuState 2019 2020 Change

IA 2584 2677 94KS 801 772 -29MN 1254 1411 157MO 463 530 67ND 410 312 -98NE 1785 1778 -7SD 557 788 231WI 443 502 59 WCB 8298 8771 472

IL 1846 2114 268IN 815 925 110KY 245 248 3MI 237 310 73OH 421 593 172 ECB 3564 4189 625

NE 423 415 -8

SE 250 295 45

SC 817 795 -21

For 2020 US Corn Production is forecast to be up 1121 mil bu.West 265 273 8

US 13617 14738 1121


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GRAIN ETHANOL BUSHEL CONVERSIONS FOR CROP YEAR 19-20© PRX 2020, File PRX_BS_Assumptions_Ryan, Jul-10-20

Days Months Ethanol Production Ethanol Prdn & Forecast USDA PRXper of EIA Petroleum Supply EIA Short-Term WASDE Blue SkyMonth Crop Monthly Energy Outlook Estimates Latest

Year (PSM) (STEO) ForecastMay-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20

Monthly Annual- Monthly Annual- Annual- Annual-ized ized ized ized

mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal30 Sep-19 1228 14938 1228 1493831 Oct-19 1300 15301 1300 1530130 Nov-19 1317 16024 1317 1602431 Dec-19 1398 16455 1398 1645531 Jan-20 1400 16489 1400 1648928 Feb-20 1282 16131 1282 1613131 Mar-20 1235 14542 1235 1454230 Apr-20 712 8659 712 865931 May-20 920 1082730 Jun-20 1071 1302531 Jul-20 1166 13728 USDA PRX31 Aug-20 1176 13844 Formula Formula

Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop YrYTD Average EIA Estimate USDA Est PRX Est

14817 14203 14326 14203 Milo mil bu Milo mil bu

75 80 Milo gal/bu Milo gal/bu

2.892 2.892 Milo mil gal Milo mil gal

The EIA's PSM reports monthly in barrels per day, and does not make projections. 217 231The EIA's STEO projects in barrels per day per month Other mil gal Other mil galThe USDA WASDE estimates corn and milo use for fuel ethanol production from the 84 84 Grain Crushings report, which receives 130 surveys or ~90% of total capacity Corn mil gal Corn mil galPRX projects annual production of fuel ethanol in mil gals, then removes 14025 13887 milo & other ethanol to estimate corn required for ethanol production Corn gal/bu Corn gal/buPRX estimates actual RINs required using the latest EIA STEO nonrenewable 2.892 2.892

Corn mil bu Corn mil bu4850 4802

Total mil gal Total mil gal14326 14203



UNITED STATES Corn Supply-Demand, 2012-2020PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item Unit Crop Year

12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175

Area planted mil ac 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 92.0

Area harvested mil ac 87.4 87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.3 81.3 84.0

Yield bu/ac 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.4 175.4

Production mil bu 10755 13829 14216 13602 15148 14609 14340 13617 14738

Imports mil bu 160 47 32 68 57 36 28 45 25

Supply mil bu 11904 14697 15479 15401 16942 16939 16509 15883 16938

Carry-out mil bu 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 2126

Disappearance (Use) mil bu 11083 13465 13748 13664 14649 14798 14288 13708 14812

Processing use mil bu 5909 6501 6649 6675 6856 7057 6793 6312 6662

of which, Fuel Eth mil bu 4537 5008 5248 5294 5502 5686 5378 4802 5128bil gal 12.9 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.2 15.8 14.2 15.1

Exports mil bu 730 1920 1867 1899 2294 2438 2065 1775 2150

Feed/Residual Use mil bu 4441 5147 5233 5091 5470 5304 5429 5621 6000

Total Use mil bu 11083 13465 13748 13664 14649 14798 14288 13708 14812

Carry-out mil bu 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 2126

Carryout-to-Use Ratio pct 7.4% 9.1% 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 14.5% 15.5% 15.9% 14.4%

Farm Price $/bu 6.89 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.36 3.36 3.61 3.60 3.35



Corn Carryout-to-Use & Farm Price Display Changing Relationship


0.0%

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12.0%

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90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21

Farm PriceCarryout-to-use

Corn Farm Price vs.

Carryout-to-Use Ratio

Farm Price, cents per bushel Carryout-to-use ratio, percent

PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20


UNITED STATES Corn Supply-Demand, 2012-2020PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item Unit Crop Year12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 Area planted mil ac 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 92.0 Area harvested mil ac 87.4 87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.3 81.3 84.0 Yield bu/ac 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.4 175.4Production mil bu 10755 13829 14216 13602 15148 14609 14340 13617 14738Supply mil bu 11904 14697 15479 15401 16942 16939 16509 15883 16938Disappearance (Use) mil bu 11083 13465 13748 13664 14649 14798 14288 13708 14812Feed/Residual Use mil bu 4441 5147 5233 5091 5470 5304 5429 5621 6000 Residual use mil bu 362 773 943 877 1179 737 729 669 1109Feed use in US mil bu 4079 4374 4290 4214 4291 4567 4700 4952 4891 Dairy mil bu 775 839 816 798 812 846 844 871 856 Beef cattle mil bu 1135 1191 1158 1130 1151 1264 1290 1354 1331 Hogs mil bu 940 985 1003 1009 1027 1122 1172 1280 1283 Poultry mil bu 1135 1256 1213 1181 1203 1239 1297 1347 1324 Other mil bu 94 102 98 96 98 96 96 99 98Processing use mil bu 5909 6501 6649 6675 6856 7057 6793 6312 6662 Fuel ethanol by wet mill mil bu 481 481 481 481 565 534 490 432 432 Fuel ethanol by dry mill mil bu 4056 4527 4767 4814 4937 5152 4887 4370 4696 Total fuel ethanol mil bu 4537 5008 5248 5294 5502 5686 5378 4802 5128

bil gal 12.9 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.2 15.8 14.2 15.1

Total domestic use mil bu 10350 11648 11882 11766 12326 12361 12222 11933 12662Foreign Exports mil bu -730 -1920 -1867 -1899 -2294 -2438 -2065 -1775 -2150Carry-out mil bu 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 2126Note. DDG Disposition (na until 06-07), with ruminants 30% ration @ 1.0 feed value of corn; hogs 20% @ 0.8; poultry 5% @ 0.5. DDG production thou mt 39534 37873 33941 36458 Corn displcd by DDG mil bu 1045 997 892 969DDG fed to all animals thou mt 27829 26618 23846 25912DDG exports to foreign thou mt 11705 11255 10096 10546Corn displcd by DDG &CGF mil bu 1206 1156 1050 1130



Corn Net Exports (+) and Net Imports (-), 20-21 Mil BuCanada Corn Exports

Rail & Truck Lakes Total18-19 76 13 8819-20 30 30 6020-21 54 16 70Change 23 -13 10 US Lakes

Pacific NW Corn ExportsCorn Exports 18-19 16

18-19 524 19-20 3319-20 290 with USDA Jul 30, 2020 Acreage and Stocks20-21 2620-21 537 30 Change -7Change 248

Total ForeignCorn Exports US Atlantic

18-19 2065 Corn Exports19-20 1775 18-19 720-21 2150 19-20 3Change 375 20-21 5

Change 2

Rail MexicoCorn Exports

18-19 37719-20 35920-21 378Change 19 All Gulf Corn Exports

Total Mexico18-19 1064 25919-20 1060 24520-21 1150 250Change 90 5


Current net export pattern depends on successful domestic use of DDG to displace whole corn according to PRX calculated formulas.

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Soybean Area Planted Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Soybean Area Planted, 000 AcState 2019 2020 Change

IA 9200 9400 200KS 4550 5300 750MN 6850 7400 550MO 5100 5600 500ND 5600 6000 400NE 4900 5000 100SD 3500 5200 1700WI 1750 2050 300 WCB 41450 45950 4500

IL 9950 10400 450IN 5400 5700 300KY 1700 1850 150MI 1760 2300 540OH 4300 4800 500 ECB 23110 25050 1940

NE 2155 2120 -35

SE 2240 2370 130

SC 7145 8335 1190

West 0 0 0

US 76100 83825 7725

For 2020 US Soybean Area Planted is forecast to be up 7725 thou acres.


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The soybean trend yield is increasing at about 0.7 bushels per acre per year.


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70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21 25-26

Actual, or latestPRX

PRX adoptedtrend, 1975-2019United StatesForecast

US Soybean Yield & Trends, 1970-2019Bushels per acre PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20


Soybean Production Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Soybean Production, Mil BuState 2019 2020 Change

IA 502 521 20KS 186 216 29MN 298 350 53MO 230 260 29ND 170 204 34NE 283 293 10SD 146 239 92WI 79 101 21 WCB 1895 2184 289

IL 532 620 88IN 273 313 39KY 78 96 18MI 70 106 37OH 209 256 47 ECB 1162 1391 229

NE 91 99 8

SE 74 88 14

SC 330 418 89

For 2020 US Soybean Production is forecast to be up 628 mil bu.West 0 0 0

US 3552 4181 628


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UNITED STATES Soybean Supply-DemandPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug)

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 151 215 169 141 92 191 197 301 438 909 620

Area planted thou ac 77404 75046 77198 76840 83276 82650 83433 90162 89167 76100 83825

Area harvested thou ac 76610 73776 76144 76252 82593 81732 82696 89542 87594 74951 83020

Yield bu/ac 43.5 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.0 49.3 50.6 47.4 50.4

Production mil bu 3329 3094 3042 3358 3926 3926 4296 4412 4428 3552 4181

Supply mil bu 3494 3325 3252 3571 4052 4141 4515 4735 4880 4476 4815

Disappearance (Use) mil bu 3279 3156 3111 3479 3861 3944 4213 4297 3971 3857 4345

Seed/Residual Use mil bu 148 89 105 104 145 123 131 109 131 101 135

Crush mil bu 1630 1703 1689 1734 1873 1886 1901 2055 2092 2155 2160

Domestic Use mil bu 1778 1792 1794 1838 2018 2009 2032 2164 2223 2256 2295

Foreign Exports mil bu -1501 -1364 -1317 -1641 -1843 -1935 -2181 -2133 -1748 -1601 -2050(Minus indicates exports from US) Foreign exports (-) up by 449 mil bu, crush up by 5 mil bu.

Carry-out mil bu 215 169 141 92 191 197 301 438 909 620 470

Farm Price, Sales weighted annual average

US Farm Price cts/bu 1130 1250 1440 1300 1010 895 947 933 848 855 850



UNITED STATES Soybean Meal Supply-DemandPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20


10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Soybean crush mil bu 1630 1703 1689 1734 1873 1886 1901 2055 2092 2155 2160

Yield lbs/bu 47.7 47.9 47.7 47.7 47.5 47.3 46.9 48.4 47.3 47.6 47.5

Soymeal production thou st 38879 40810 40283 41356 44517 44593 44460 49719 49492 51281 51282

Soymeal supply thou st 39152 40910 40613 41606 44717 44932 44735 50119 50046 51683 52015

Soymeal domestic use thou st 30044 31720 28892 29815 31668 32957 32622 35509 36092 37500 37800

Soymeal exports thou st 9008 9143 11471 11615 12710 11700 11713 14056 13553 13450 13100

Soymeal total use thou st 39052 40863 40363 41430 44378 44657 44335 49565 49645 50950 50900

Soymeal carry-out thou st 100 47 250 176 339 275 400 554 401 733 1115

HPCAUs mil 134.8 135.5 132.2 132.0 134.1 135.4 135.4 135.4 140.9 142.4 143.0

Soymeal fed per HPCAU st 0.223 0.234 0.219 0.226 0.236 0.243 0.241 0.262 0.256 0.263 0.264

Avg price, Decatur, actl $/st 346 394 468 490 368 325 317 345 308

Avg price, Decatur, model $/st 346 397 395 378 317 290 303 360 361 344 335

Protein fed, total thou st 37972 39771 36731 38588 39261 40550 40309 43331 44183 46403 46888

of which,

Dairy thou st 4870 5122 4836 5082 5146 5288 5211 5608 5543 5746 5780

Beef cattle thou st 6626 6874 6265 6444 6536 6774 6767 7459 7521 7869 7915

Hogs thou st 7298 7787 7327 7456 7903 8351 8523 9293 9619 10547 10822

Poultry thou st 18842 19637 17970 19256 19326 19778 19455 20755 21286 22018 22148

Other thou st 337 351 333 350 350 359 353 216 214 223 224

Non-soy olsd meal fed thou st 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573 3573

Animal protein fed thou st 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883 2883

Gluten feed & meal fed thou st 1472 1595 1383 2317 1137 1137 1231 1366 1635 2447 2632

Soymeal fed thou st 30044 31720 28892 29815 31668 32957 32622 35509 36092 37500 37800

Soymeal production thou st 38879 40810 40283 41356 44517 44593 44460 49719 49492 50924 50925

Net Soymeal exports thou st -9008 -9143 -11471 -11615 -12710 -11700 -11713 -14056 -13553 -13450 -13100



UNITED STATES Soybean Oil Supply-DemandPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug)10-011 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Soybean crush mil bu 1630 1703 1689 1734 1873 1886 1901 2055 2092 2155 2160 Yield lbs/bu 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.8Soyoil production mil lbs 18585 19414 19592 20114 21068 21685 22442 24108 24595 25144 25436Soyoil supply mil lbs 21888 21846 22253 21824 22245 23440 24129 25818 26591 26919 27555Soyoil domestic use mil lbs 16383 17799 18576 18934 18864 20162 19862 21380 22874 22100 23000Soyoil net exports mil lbs 3073 1489 1967 1713 1625 2243 2556 2443 1941 2700 2200Soyoil total use mil lbs 19456 19288 20543 20647 20489 22405 22418 23823 24815 24800 25200Soyoil carry-out mil lbs 2432 2558 1710 1177 1756 1036 1711 1995 1775 2119 2355 US population mil 304.8 307.6 310.4 313.2 316.0 318.8 321.6 324.4 327.2 330.0 332.8 Domestic SBO per cap lbs 53.8 57.9 59.8 60.5 59.7 63.2 61.8 65.9 69.9 67.0 69.1Avg price, Decatur, actl cents/lb 53.2 51.9 47.3 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Avg price, Decatur, model cents/lb 53.2 51.9 47.1 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Estimated domestic:Soyoil food use mil lbs 13433 14699 13887 13924 13825 14492 13662 14246 15011 14700 15000Soyoil industrial use mil lbs 2950 3100 4689 5010 5039 5670 6200 7134 7863 7400 8000 Biodiesel mil gals 404 425 642 686 690 777 849 977 1077 1014 1096Estimated crush margin (Central IL):Soyoil price cents/bu 53.2 51.9 47.3 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Soyoil yield per bu lbs/bu 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.8Soyoil value per bu cents/bu 607 592 548 565 370 285 331 397 382 307 314

Soymeal price, Decatur $/st 346 397 395 378 317 290 303 360 361 344 335Soymeal yield per bu lbs/bu 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8Soymeal value per bu cents/bu 757 870 865 829 695 636 664 789 791 754 733

Soybean price, Decatur cents/bu 1130 622 689 446 370 361 336 336 361 360 335Oil & meal value per bu cents/bu 1363 1462 1411 1394 1065 921 995 1186 1173 1061 1046Crush margin proxy* cents/bu 233 212 -29 -10 -375 -379 -15 291 226 128 198* Crush margin proxy does not include local elevation and transportation costs to the processor and should be adjusted for local costs.



Soybean Net Exports (+) and Net Imports (-), 20-21 Mil BuPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Pacific NW US LakesSoybean Exports Soybean Exports18-19 399 18-19 6119-20 412 19-20 1720-21 524 20-21 47Change 112 Change 29

Rail MexicoSoybean Exports 18-19 11118-19 125 19-20 8419-20 112 20-21 12320-21 121 Change 39Change 10

All Gulf Soybean ExportsTotal Mexico

18-19 1050 6119-20 1024 5420-21 1234 67Change 210 13

Current net export pattern depends on other oilseed meals and proteins.


US AtlanticSoybean Exports

-62

121

-61

7

-62

103377 37

13854

14

-111

2

-1050

60

144

110

96

9

193

166

-399

3

0

151

15

6

-125

-9

159

76

3

-4

-1102


Wheat Area Planted Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Wheat Area Planted, 000 AcState 2019 2020 Change

IA 0 0 0KS 6900 6700 -200MN 1455 1310 -145MO 550 480 -70ND 7505 6830 -675NE 1070 920 -150SD 1500 1500 0WI 195 160 -35 WCB 19175 17900 -1275

IL 650 570 -80IN 330 360 30KY 460 530 70MI 540 530 -10OH 500 530 30 ECB 2480 2520 40

NE 874 1045 171

SE 640 900 260

SC 9135 9590 455

CO 2150 1900 -250MT 5450 5160 -290West 12854 12295 -559

US 45158 44250 -908

For 2020 US Wheat Area Planted is forecast to be down 908 thou acres.


10

3021

-35 -250-5

40

60

-80 30

-20070

-10

-145

-70

-5

-290

170

-675

-150 6

-30

65

30

100

10

50

4030

300

-5

55

-40

-35


The long-term trend wheat yield shows a gain of about 0.6 bushels/acre.


49.7

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

60

70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21

Actual, or latestPRX

PRX adoptedtrend, 1975-2019United StatesForecast

US Wheat Yield & Trends, 1970-2019Bushels per acre PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20


Wheat Production Change, 20-21 vs. Previous Year

Wheat Production, Mil BuState 2019 2020 ChangeIA 0 0 0KS 338 314 -24MN 80 73 -7MO 25 25 1ND 321 296 -25NE 55 43 -12SD 66 68 2WI 10 9 -1 WCB 894 828 -66

IL 37 37 0IN 16 22 6KY 25 27 2MI 34 39 5OH 22 36 15 ECB 134 161 28

NE 38 47 9

SE 24 37 13

SC 198 192 -5

CO 98 59 -39MT 219 184 -35West 633 559 -74

For 2020 US Wheat Production is forecast to be down 97 mil bu.US 1920 1824 -97


0

22

0 -39-1

0

2

0 6

-242

1

5

-7

1

0

-35

10

-25

-12 0

-1

4

15

-7

-7

1

2

2

1

0

04

6

-1-1


UNITED STATES All Wheat Supply-Demand, 10-11 to 20-21PRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

Item Unit Crop year (Jun-May)

10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 976 862 743 718 590 752 976 1181 1099 1080 1044



Yield bu/ac 46.3 43.7 46.3 47.1 43.7 43.6 52.7 46.4 47.6 51.7 49.7


Imports mil bu 97 112 122 168 149 113 118 157 135 105 139

Supply mil bu 3280 2973 3131 3021 2764 2927 3402 3079 3118 3105 3007


Feed/Residual Use mil bu 204 240 461 304 200 219 218 114 147 134 151

Processing in state mil bu 925 940 945 951 958 957 949 964 955 962 964

Domestic Use mil bu 1129 1180 1406 1255 1158 1176 1167 1078 1102 1096 1115

Foreign Exports mil bu -1289 -1050 -1007 -1176 -854 -775 -1054 -902 -936 -965 -950(Minus indicates exports from US) New crop exports (-) down by 15 mil bu.

Carry-out mil bu 862 743 718 590 752 976 1181 1099 1080 1044 942

Farm Price, Sales weighted annual average




UNITED STATES Sorghum Supply-Demand, 10-11 to 20-21Master Blue Sky Forecast, SDU, Jul-10-20


10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 41 27 23 15 34 18 40 33 35 64 25



Yield bu/ac 72 49 50 55 68 76 78 72 72 73 72


Supply mil bu 387 241 270 408 466 615 520 395 400 405 375


Feed/Residual Use mil bu 125 78 92 93 80 123 135 95 137 90 85

Industrial Use mil bu 83 85 92 70 18 137 115 60 106 80 50

Total Use mil bu 208 163 184 163 98 260 250 155 243 170 135

Foreign Exports mil bu -152 -55 -71 -211 -350 -315 -238 -205 -93 -210 -220

Carry-out mil bu 27 23 15 34 18 40 33 35 64 25 20


As share of corn pct 97% 96% 92% 96% 109% 92% 83% 96% 90% 90% 100%



Forecast Comparison: USDA versus PRX, OLD CROPPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat

Item PRX USDA PRX USDA PRX USDA

Unit 19-20 19-20 19-20 19-20 19-20 19-20

Carry-in mil bu 2221 2221 909 909 1080 1080

Area planted thou ac 89700 89700 76100 76100 45158 45200

Area harvested thou ac 81322 81300 74951 75000 37162 37200

Yield bu/ac 167.4 167.4 47.4 47.4 51.7 51.7

Production mil bu 13617 13617 3552 3552 1920 1920

Imports mil bu 45 45 15 15 105 105

Supply mil bu 15883 15883 4476 4476 3105 3105

Feed/Residual Use mil bu 5621 5600 101 51 134 134

Industrial Use mil bu 6312 6260 2155 2155 962 962

of which, corn ethanol mil bu 4802 4850

Total Domestic Use mil bu 11933 11860 2256 2206 1096 1096

Foreign Exports mil bu 1775 1775 1601 1650 965 965

Total Use mil bu 13708 13635 3857 3856 2061 2061

Carry-out mil bu 2175 2248 620 620 1044 1044

US Farm Price cts/bu 360 360 855 855 458 458



Forecast Comparison: USDA versus PRX, NEW CROPPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20

US Corn US Soybeans US Wheat

Item PRX USDA PRX USDA PRX USDA

Unit 20-21 20-21 20-21 20-21 20-21 20-21

Carry-in mil bu 2175 2248 620 620 1044 1044

Area planted thou ac 92006 92000 83825 83800 44250 44300

Area harvested thou ac 84023 84000 83020 83000 36678 36700

Yield bu/ac 175.4 178.5 50.4 49.8 49.7 49.7

Production mil bu 14738 15000 4181 4135 1824 1824

Imports mil bu 25 25 15 15 139 140

Supply mil bu 16938 17273 4815 4770 3007 3007

Feed/Residual Use mil bu 6000 5850 135 135 151 151

Industrial Use mil bu 6662 6625 2160 2160 964 964

of which, corn ethanol mil bu 5128 5200

Total Domestic Use mil bu 12662 12475 2295 2295 1115 1115

Foreign Exports mil bu 2150 2150 2050 2050 950 950

Total Use mil bu 14812 14625 4345 4345 2065 2065

Carry-out mil bu 2126 2648 470 425 942 942

US Farm Price cts/bu 335 335 850 850 460 460



World Corn, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE)W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Jul-10-20

Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Feed Food & Total End Stocks

Year* Stocks duction ports ply ports Use Ind. Use Use Stocks to Use

mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt ratio

17-18 352 1080 150 1432 148 672 270 1090 342 0.31

18-19 341 1123 163 1465 181 703 260 1144 320 0.28

19-20 320 1114 169 1434 171 707 244 1122 312 0.28

20-21 312 1163 177 1475 182 728 250 1160 315 0.27

Change from previous year

-8 50 8 42 11 21 6 38 3 -0.01

4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 3.4% 1.0%


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21

World

US

Corn Stocks to

World corn stocks to use ratio down in 2020-21

*Aggregate of local marketing years. China stocks and use data before 1985 not revised by USDA.


World Soybean, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE)W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Jul-10-20

Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Crush Food & Total End Stocks



17-18 95 342 153 437 153 295 43 338 99 0.29

18-19 99 361 145 459 148 297 45 343 113 0.33

19-20 113 337 158 450 159 304 44 348 100 0.29

20-21 100 363 158 462 162 316 48 364 95 0.26


-13 25 0 12 2 11 4 15 -5 -0.02

7.5% 0.3% 1.4% 4.3% -4.6%


0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21

World

US

Brazil +Argentina

Soybean Stocks to

World soybean stocks to use ratio down in 2020-21

*Aggregate of local marketing years, except Argentina and Brazil adjusted to Oct-Sep.


World Wheat, Supply-Demand (USDA WASDE)W_World_wjh.xls, SDU, Jul-10-20

Crop Beg. Pro- Im- Sup- Ex- Feed Food & Total End Stocks



17-18 263 763 181 1026 182 147 413 742 284 0.38

18-19 284 731 171 1015 174 140 422 735 280 0.38

19-20 280 765 183 1045 188 140 419 748 297 0.40

20-21 297 769 183 1066 188 135 428 752 315 0.42


17 4 0 22 0 -5 9 4 18 0.02

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 6.0%


0.000.100.200.300.400.50

0.600.700.800.901.001.10

1.201.30

70-71 75-76 80-81 85-86 90-91 95-96 00-01 05-06 10-11 15-16 20-21

World

US

China

Wheat Stocks to

World wheat stocks to use ratio up in 2020-21

*Aggregate of local marketing years. China stocks and use data before 1985 not revised by USDA.

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