próximo tutorial 3-3: multiple regression and gis
TRANSCRIPT
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Próximo tutorial
3-3: Multiple regression and GIS
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Modelos en ecología
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¿Qué son modelos?
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¿Modelos?
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Modelos en ecología
• Representaciones de las relaciones entre cantidades o cualidades definidas formalmente.
La mitad de uno = el ombligo
2 perros + 5 perros = 7 perros [más formal]
2 x + 5 x = 7 x [más formal aun]
[falta formalidad]
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Clasificación de modelos
Según sus capacidades para ser:
Realistas,
Precisos, y
Generalizadores.
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Realidad
GeneralidadPrecisión
EmpíricoFenomenológico
EcológicoEstadístico
MecanísticoFisiológico
FundamentalBasado en proceso
Analítico Matemático
Teórico
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Lecturas sobre modelos en ecología:
1. Guisan y Zimmerman 2000. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Recomendada.
2. Gallego et al. 2004. Descriptive biogeography of Tomicus spp. in Spain. Asignada.
Los encuentran en la página escondida.
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Pasos en el desarrollo de modelos
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Riqueza de especies en lagos
R = a + bA
R = a + bA
R = 1.2 + 0.3 A
Riqueza aumenta con Area
R = 0.9 + 0.1 A
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Modelos espaciales
Regresión lineal
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Regresión lineal
• Este tipo de análisis incluye una variable independiente y la variable dependiente es contínua.
• El análisis supone que las variables se distribuyen normalmente y que la relación entre ambas variables es lineal.
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Ejemplo de regresión lineal
• Predicción de temperatura basado en un DEM y datos de estaciones meteorológicas.
• Explicado en el tutorial 2-6.
• Estrategia: datos de estaciones interpolados a los otros píxeles.
• Una regresión de temperatura en elevación nos da la ecuación:
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Regresión de temperatura según elevación
Temperatura = 27 – (0.0016 x Elevación)
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Imagen predictiva de temperatura
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Regresión lineal multiple
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Regresión lineal multiple
• Este tipo de análisis incluye más de una variable independiente y la variable dependiente es contínua.
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Una de las variables independientes: % de fincas con 1 o 2 toros.
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Regresión logística
• En este tipo de análisis puede incluirse más de una variable independiente y la variable dependiente es categórica.
• Los resultados se presentan en probabilidad de presencia.
• Apropiada para predecir presencia de especies o clases de cobertura.
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Modelos de adecuación de habitat
(“habitat suitability: HS”)
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Concepto del nicho de una especie
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Marginalidad, especialización y tolerancia
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Marginalidad y especialidad
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