proucl utilization 2020...• upper simultaneous limits (usls) – new in proucl 5.0/proucl 5.1 •...
TRANSCRIPT
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ProUCL Utilization 2020 BTVs and UCLs
Presenters: Travis Linscome-Hatfield,
Polona Carson
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Summary of Session 1: ProUCL A to Z
• Objective: • Get familiar with ProUCL and some commonly used data analysis features
• We talked about: • Starting ProUCL • Preparing data for analysis and loading in ProUCL • Basics of dealing with missing values and NDs • Exploratory Data Analysis • Outliers • Hypothesis testing
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Summary of Session 2: Trend Analysis
• Objective: • Use and understand trend analysis tools available within ProUCL
• We talked about: • The trickiness of NDs in trend analysis • Non-parametric trend tests • Ordinary Least Squares Regression • Analysis of residuals • Data transformations
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Learning Objectives
• Objectives • Dive into Background threshold
values and UCLs within ProUCL • Today we will discuss: • Background threshold
values/Upper Tolerance Limits (UTLs) • Upper confidence limits (UCLs)
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ProUCL Software
• Statistical software for environmental data analysis • User Guide • Provides instructions on how to use ProUCL
• Technical Guide • Provides detailed background on statistical methods
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Navigating ProUCL
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Data Sets
• Superfund.xls • In ProUCL Data folder
• TCE-NDs-Blanks-data.xls • In ProUCL Data folder
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Coverage vs Confidence
• Confidence : We believe an something will occur 95% of the time.
• Coverage : We believe that 95% of our future samples will be below our value
• Combined UTL95-95 : We believe that 95% of all future samples will be below our value, 95% of the time.
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Background Threshold Values
• Upper percentiles • Upper prediction limits (UPLs) • Upper tolerance limits (UTLs) • Upper Simultaneous Limits (USLs) – New in ProUCL 5.0/ProUCL 5.1
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Background Threshold Values
• Upper percentiles • Upper prediction limits (UPLs) • Upper tolerance limits (UTLs) • Upper Simultaneous Limits (USLs) – New in ProUCL 5.0/ProUCL 5.1
• Based upon an established background data set, a 95th percentile represents that statistic such that 95% of sampled data will be less than or equal to the value of the 95th percentile.
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Background Threshold Values
• Upper percentiles • Upper prediction limits (UPLs) • Upper tolerance limits (UTLs) • Upper Simultaneous Limits (USLs) – New in ProUCL 5.0/ProUCL 5.1
• 95% UPL is the value such that we are 95% sure that a single sample from an established population will fall below it.
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UPLs and UCLs
confidence intervals
prediction intervals
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Background Threshold Values
• Upper percentiles • Upper prediction limits (UPLs) • Upper tolerance limits (UTLs) • Upper Simultaneous Limits (USLs) – New in ProUCL 5.0/ProUCL 5.1
• UTL95-95 is the value such that 95% of recorded samples will fall below it 95% of the time.
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Background Threshold Values
• Upper percentiles • Upper prediction limits (UPLs) • Upper tolerance limits (UTLs) • Upper Simultaneous Limits (USLs) – New in ProUCL 5.0/ProUCL 5.1
• USL95 is the value such that ALL sample values fall below it with 95% confidence.
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• Options for Normal, Gamma, and Non-parametric
• Represent not to exceed background values UTLs Without NDs • Can compute for next K observations
• Bare minimum 6 background samples
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• Options for Normal, Gamma, and Non-parametric
• Represent not to exceed background values UTLs with NDs • Can compute for next K observations
• Bare minimum 6 background samples
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• Options for Normal, Gamma, and Non-parametric
• Represent upper estimate of the mean UCLs without NDs • Minimum 8 samples for parametric
• Minimum 14 samples for non-parametric
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• Options for Normal, Gamma, and Non-parametric
• Represent upper estimate of the mean UCLs with NDs • Minimum 8 Detects for parametric
• Minimum 14 Detects for non-parametric
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Limits summary
Limit Meaning
95% - UCL Mean of sample set falls below UCL 95% of the time
95% - UTL 95th percentile of sample data falls below UTL 95% of the time
95% - UPL Next observed point falls below UPL 95% of the time
95% - USL All values in sample data fall below USL 95% of the time
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Final remarks
• Consider which BTV make sense for your site • Consider the benefits of different
limit generating methodology • Double check your sample size • When in doubt consult statistician • Document any analysis steps and
decisions made
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Contact Information for ProUCL
Felicia Barnett, EPA SCMTSC [email protected]
Travis Linscome-Hatfield, Neptune and Company, Inc [email protected]
Polona Carson, Neptune and Company, Inc [email protected]