Executive Summary 

 

❖ In a day of protests and conflict at the Esplanade, the political                       

crisis re-escalated, causing another increase in the mentions of “Temer                   

Out” (Fora Temer) and “Direct Elections Now” (Diretas Já), in addition to                       

criticism towards the social security and labor reforms. The map of                     

retweets about the protests shows the profile group traditionally                 

linked to the opposition on the offense against the government, which                     

does not find an organic field of defense in the networks; 

❖ This Wednesday in the afternoon, mentions of the violence and                   

vandalism during the protests were also highlighted, following the                 

announcement of the sending of the military forces to contain the                     

protesters, aggravating an already adverse scenario for the government                 

and its allies, which suffer a new setback in the eyes of the public                           

opinion; 

❖ In this context, we observe — among the political actors — an                       

increase in mentions of the president of the Chamber of Deputies,                     

Rodrigo Maia, both due to his request for the president to send                       

reinforcements to contain the protesters, and due to the fact that he is                         

next in the succession line after Temer. 

 

 

***** 

 

 

 

1 

 

Protests at the Esplanade Political crisis re-escalates 

 

The protests which erupted at the Esplanade of the Ministries in                     

Brasília, this Wednesday, caused the re-escalation of the political crisis,                   

with another intensification of the demands of Temer Out (Fora Temer)                     

and Direct Elections Now (Diretas Já), criticism towards the agenda of                     

governmental reforms and strong reactions to the decision of sending                   

the military forces to act together with the police in the protests. Until                         

5:30 p.m., FGV DAPP’s Theme Monitor accounted for more than 210                     

thousand mentions in the protest category, a similar level to the one                       

verified at the peak of the political crisis initiated exactly one week ago                         

— and tending to increase over the next hours.  

In the map of retweets about the protests — in which we analyzed                         

around 120 thousand tweets —, we observe an increase in the debate                       

on today’s protests in the social networks, with the group formed by                       

profiles traditionally aligned to the opposition to the government (in                   

red) becoming protagonists, together with the pink group, formed by                   

profiles not aligned with that group, but specifically converging around                   

an agenda which demands President Temer to leave and which                   

understands that the protests in their peak were provoked by the                     

police. The blue group, on the other hand, formed by profiles which                       

usually criticize the left and which were favorable to the impeachment                     

of president Dilma Rousseff, appears with a large volume of                   

interactions, but in reaction to the agenda of Direct Elections Now                     

(Diretas Já) — not in defense of President Michel Temer — and blaming                         

the protesters for the violence in today’s protest. In yellow, a fragile                       

group of mediation between the groups, reinforcing the idea of conflict                     

between the fields formed in this moment.  

2 

 

Map of Retweets about the Protests (Twitter - 12 a.m. to 4 p.m.) 

 

  Among the thematics with larger volume of mentions in the context of the                         

protests, “Direct Elections Now” (Diretas Já) had, until 15 p.m., around 54                       

thousand references, with the hashtag #diretaspordireitos (direct elections               

for rights) in 33 thousand posts. Following that, we observe a series of terms                           

related to the conflict at the Esplanade, abovel all the criticism towards                       

“vandalism” (30.6 thousand), mentions to the use of the military forces (26.8                       

thousand), to the “fire” (25.9 thousand) and to the “police violence” (20.4                       

thousand), showing the dimensions of the mood of confrontation installed                   

in Brasília — and, consequently, in the social networks. The presence of a                         

large volume of posts about the acts of vandalism — critical debate which                         

3 

 

was quite augmented due to the episode of fire at the Esplanade —                         

accounted for the main agenda of the groups contrary to the protests.                       

Even though there is a larger volume of debate among profiles favorable to                         

the protests, the destruction of ministerial buildings made it so that                     

criticism towards vandalism was more disseminated than possible criticism                 

towards the acts of the police.  

 

Volume of Mentions (Twitter - 1 p.m. to 5 p.m.) 

 

 

Evolution of the volume of mentions (Twitter - 20/05 to 24/05 until 4 p.m.) 

 

 

4 

 

 

In this context, we observe an increase in mentions to the president of the                           

Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, the first in Temer’s succession line and                       

the one who requested the support of national troops to contain the                       

protesters. Maia has been considered as one of the options for the                       

Presidency in case of an indirect election, together with names such as                       

ex-Minister Nelson Jobim and Minister Henrique Meirelles. This Wednesday,                 

the president of the Chamber surpassed the other eligible names and grew                       

together with the name of the President — although at a lower volume. 

 

Mentions to actors of the political debate  

(Twitter - 05/20 to 05/24 until 4 p.m.) 

  

 

   In the economic debate, the protests caused an increase in the mentions                       

to economic reforms, representing a new setback for the government                   

agenda, which had been trying to resume the legislative schedule after the                       

peak of the crisis. By 4 p.m., the volume of mentions to the reforms had                             

already reached a similar level to the one seen on Saturday, when President                         

Temer — in an announcement — defended his government using as an                       

5 

 

argument, among other points, the need to maintain the economic                   

agenda in this moment when the activity seems to be resuming. 

 

Mentions in the economic debate (Twitter - 05/20 to 05/24 until 4 p.m.) 

  

                      

6 

 

Final Considerations 

Therefore, this Wednesday’s protests at the Esplanade caused the                 

re-escalation of the political crisis — when some actors already counted                     

on a cooling down. In this context, some points must be observed in                         

the following days: 

❖ The evolution of the mentions related to protests in the social                     

networks, which could indicate the beginning of a series of acts against                       

the Temer administration, an element which had not been seen yet                     

since the eruption of the current political crisis, on May 17th; 

❖ The intensification of demands for President Temer to leave and                   

for Direct Elections Now (Diretas Já) — as opposed to those defending                       

indirect elections; 

❖ The volume of mentions to the main political actors, above all                     

those who are considered as possible successors to Temer, which could                     

indicate a convergence around one of them; 

❖ The impact of the re-escalation of the crisis on the economic                     

debate, above all on the agenda of the social security and labor                       

reforms, which could have a negative repercussion on the political                   

stability and on resuming the economic activities. 

 

 

 

 

 

7 

 

 

Methodological Note

For the analysis of the protests and of the political crisis, we used data from Twitter,                               collecting over 210 thousand posts. The tweets collected for the analysis were posted                         between 12 a.m. and 5 p. m. today. For the debate of actors and themes, we collected                                 over 1.5 million of mentions on Twitter. 

The graphs (maps of retweets) are visualizations of interactions between profiles,                     applicable to any database where the interlocutors are related by some attribute. To                         aggregate the data on Twitter, FGV/DAPP does not use only isolated keywords or                         hashtags, but also applies an approach based on Discursive Semiotics to filter the                         posts by themes.   

The word cloud presents the main terms, by order of frequency, used by each of the                               clusters identified in the network of retweets. 

For further information on our research methodology, access the file “Not so simple:                         the Challenge to Monitor Public Policies on Social Networks”. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

8 

 

FGV Founded in 1944, Fundação Getulio Vargas was created with the aim of                       promoting the social and economic development of Brazil, through the                   education of qualified administrators in both the public and private spheres.                     Over time, FGV has expanded its activities to other areas of knowledge, such                         as social sciences, law, economics, history and, most recently, applied                   mathematics, which is a benchmark in quality and excellence in all of its                         eight schools.  Luiz Simões Lopes Building (Main Office) Address: Praia de Botafogo, 190 – Rio de Janeiro/ RJ CEP: 22250-900 Tel: +55 (21) 3799-5938  First president and founder Luiz Simões Lopes   President Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal  Vice presidents Francisco Oswaldo Neves Dornelles (on leave) Marcos Cintra Cavalcanti de Albuquerque (on leave) Sergio Franklin Quintella   FGV/DAPP  Director Marco Aurelio Ruediger  Team Thomas Traumann Amaro Grassi Danilo Carvalho Humberto Ferreira Lucas Cali  

Contact +55 21 3799.4300 | www.dapp.fgv.br | dapp@fgv.br  

 

9