protecting pastoralists against mortality losses due to severe forage scarcity
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Andrew Mude at the Workshop on The Future of Pastoralism in Africa: International Conference to Debate Research Findings and Policy Options, Addis Ababa, 21-23 March 2011.TRANSCRIPT
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Index Based Livestock Insurance
Protecting pastoralists against mortality losses due to severe
forage scarcity
Andrew Mude
The Future of Pastoralism in Africa
Addis Ababa, March 21-23, 2011
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Setting the ContextPastoralist Risk Management CRSP (PARIMA): Among its many lessons we learn that….
…..Pastoralists are very vulnerable to widespread forage scarcity
…. livestock mortality due to forage scarcity is by far the biggest risk.
Borena ZoneMarsabit District
Causes of Livestock Mortality
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Responding to RiskBasically there are two ways to deal with risk:
1. Reduce the impact of Risk• Mitigation (ex-ante): Transhumance, Diversification, etc.• Management(ex-post): Traditional system of support (not very
effective for shared risks), productive safety nets, restocking etc.
2. Risk transfer• Shifting the burden of that risk to a different entity – for a fee.• This basic idea behind INSURANCE.
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Sustainable insurance can:
• Prevent downward slide of vulnerable populations• Stabilize expectations & crowd-in investment and
accumulation by poor populations• Induce financial deepening by crowding-in credit supply
and demand
But can insurance be sustainably offered in remote infrastructure deficient areas and to smallholders?
Conventional (individual) insurance unlikely to work, especially among pastoralists:
• Transactions costs• Moral hazard/adverse selection
The Case for Index Insurance
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Index insurance avoids problems that make individual insurance unprofitable for small, remote clients:
• No transactions costs of measuring individual losses
• Preserves effort incentives (no moral hazard) as no single individual can influence index.
• Adverse selection does not matter as payouts do not depend on the riskiness of those who buy the insurance
• Available on near real-time basis: faster response than conventional humanitarian relief
Index insurance can, in principle, be used to create an effective safety net to alter poverty dynamics and help address broad-scale shocks in pastoral areas.
The Case for Index Insurance
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Prerequisites and Challenges of Sustainable Index Insurance:
1. DEFINING THE RISK
• Area-based product the risk must be covariate in nature
• Risk must be quantifiable and predictable
• Risk must be ‘indexable’
2. IDENTIFYING THE INDEX
• Index is a single-valued, specific measure associated with insured-risk upon which payment decisions are made
• Must be: i) Easy to Measure, ii) Precise Indicator of Insurable Risk, iiI) Cannot be Easily Manipulated iv) Consistently Available
From Theory to Practice
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DATA•Livestock Mortality
•NDVI
Response Function
Index•Predicted Livestock Mortality
3. DESIGNING THE INDEX
• Need to model a relationship between the risk to be insured and the index The Response Function
• The challenge of data availability
From Theory to Practice
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4. TESTING INDEX PERFORMACE
• Minimizing “BASIS Risk”:
• How well does the index correspond to the outcome it is measuring?
• How well does the index correspond to individual outcomes?
From Theory to Practice
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5. CONTRACT FEATURES: SPATIAL COVERAGE
• How wide a geographic area can a single index-cover?
– What is the spatial precision range of the response function?
– At what level of resolution is the necessary data available?
– Administrational considerations
• Two Separate NDVI-Livestock Mortality Response Functions
• Five Separate Index Coverage Regions
KARGI
SHURA
MAIKONA
BUBISA
TURBI
ILLERET
GALAS
SABARET
KOYA
DARADE
NORTH HORR
DUKANA
EL GADE
KORR
KURUGUM
BALESA
LAISAMIS
EL-HADI
FUROLE
KALACHA
HAFARE
GAS
HURRI HILLS
LOIYANGALANI
KURUNGU
LONTOLIO
ARAPAL
LOGOLOGO
QILTA
MT. KULAL
MOITE
GUDAS/SORIADI
KARARE
IRIR
NGURUNIT
LARACHI
KAMBOYESOUTH HORR(MARSA)
LONYORIPICHAU
SONGA
MERILLE
ILLAUT(MARSABIT)
HULAHULA
MAJENGO(MARSABIT)
OGUCHO
OLTUROT
JALDESA
KITURUNIDIRIB GOMBO
JIRIME
SAGANTE
From Theory to Practice
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5. CONTRACT FEATURES: TEMPORAL COVERAGE
• Over what time span should an index cover?
– Function of the production system/risk profile being modelled
– Administrational considerations
From Theory to Practice
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5. CONTRACT FEATURES: RISK COVERAGE AND PRICING
• Need to select an index strike point to trigger indemnity?
– Trade off: Higher Strike Lower Risk Coverage Lower Cost
– Conditional or Unconditional?
– Payoff structure: Linear, Segmented, All or nothing, No claims bonus?
ations
Contract Cluster Consumer Price
Upper Marsabit 5.5%
Lower Marsabit 3.25%
From Theory to Practice
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6. INNOVATIONS INCENTIVES
• Catalyzing the Market
• Enabling Regulation
• Engaging Stakeholders
• Private vs. Public, or Partnership?
From Theory to Practice
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7. ESTABLISH INFORMED EFFECTIVE DEMAND
• Insurance is a difficult product to sell
• Insurance is a foreign concept to relatively uninformed target
• Initial significant investment in extension and marketing
• Simulation games with real information and incentives
From Theory to Practice
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8. LOW COST DELIVERY
• Identify mechanism to deliver product to client
• What sales delivery platform?
• What information delivery platform?
9. IMPACT ASSESSMENT
• Does Index-Insurance deliver the social and economic benefits it promises?
• Need a rigorous research design to allow quantification and attribution of impacts?
• M&E to guide scale-up
From Theory to Practice
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Thank you
For more information please visit:
www.ilri.org/ibli/
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PREMIUM RATE
CONTRACTS SOLD
CATTLE NO.
INSURED
SHEEP/ GOATS
NO. INSURED
CAMELS NO.
INSURED
TOTAL VALUE OF INSURED LIVESTOCK
(USD)
TO VALUE OF
COLLECTED PREMIUMS
(USD)
UPPER 5.5% 556 371 11,081 185 347,620 19,119
LOWER 3.25% 1,423 3537 4,745 154 845,460 27,477
TOTAL 1,979 3908 15,826 339 1,193,080 46,597
Contract Sales for Marsabit for the 2010
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Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI)• New innovation in insurance avoids problems that make traditional
insurance unprofitable for small, remote clients:• Policy holders paid based on external “index” that triggers payments to
all insured clients• Suited for risks affecting a large number of people simultaneously and
for which a suitable index exists.
– No transactions costs of measuring individual losses
– Preserves effort incentives (no moral hazard) as no single individual can influence index.
– Adverse selection does not matter as payouts do not depend on the riskiness of those who buy the insurance
– Problem of “basis” risk
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Potential Benefits of IBLI
IBLI is designed to compensate client holders from livestock losses due to severe and prolonged forage scarcity.
We hypothesize that such sustainable insurance can help minimize the social and economic costs of risks in the following ways?
1. Stabilizing expectations & crowding-in investment and accumulation by poor populations
2. Preventing downward slide of vulnerable populations3. Inducing financial deepening by crowding-in credit supply and
demand
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Piloting in Marsabit and Borena
1. FEASIBILITY STUDY
2. CONTRACT DESIGN
3. PRODUCT DELIVERY
4. IMPACT ASSESSMENT
4-pronged effort to develop, implement and evaluate IBLI
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Feasibility Study
Basic prerequisites to feasibility need to be made:
1. Is the relevant data available?
2. Are necessary stakeholders interested and committed (government, regulators, insurance companies, client representatives)
3. Is this something the community will embrace and desire?
4. Is the community willing to pay for the product?