Prostate Cancer:A Case for Active

Surveillance Philip Kantoff MD

Dana-Farber Cancer Institute

Professor of Medicine

Harvard Medical School

Incidence of Prostate Cancer: International Comparisons

Dijkman. Eur Urol. 1996;30:281-294.

Clinical Incidence of Prostate Cancer Has Changed Dramatically Over Time

Copyright ©2006 American Cancer Society

From Jemal, A. et al. CA Cancer J Clin 2006;56:106-130.

Mortality Rates for Cancer in the US

Autopsy Detection of Prostate Cancer in Men of Various Ages

Sakr et al. In Vivo. 8:439-43, 1994

Age Cancer

20-30 2%

31-40 29%

41-50 32%

51-60 55%

71-80 64%

Some Basic Statistics

• What you find depends on how hard you look– Autopsy prostate cancer: ~50% of men over 50

– Clinical (PSA) prostate cancer: ~16% of men > age 50

– Death from prostate cancer: ~3.0% of men > age 50

Risk of Clinical Prostate Cancer

• Currently risk of prostate cancer is determined by whether you do a biopsy, how many biopsies you do and the frequency of biopsies

• The number of PSA driven biopsies have dramatically changed in the past 20 years

Conclusion: Epidemiology

• Prostate Cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death among US men

• The vast majority of men who have and who are diagnosed with prostate cancer will not die from their disease

• PSA utilization has resulted in an increased incidence of prostate cancer

Does Treatment Reduce Mortality?

Randomized Study: Surgery Versus Active Surveillance

• 695 Scandinavian men, 1989-1999

• Median f/u 8.2 years

• Mean age: 64.7 years

• Mean PSA: 12.8 ng/ml

• Gleason: 2-6 (61%), 7 (23%), 8-10 (5%)

Overall Survival

Cancer Specific Survival

RR 0.56, p=0.01

Cancer Specific Survival Based On Age

Increased Risk Of Metastases With Watchful Waiting

RR 0.60, p=0.004

Conclusions

• Radical local treatment in a largely non-screened population with localized cancer leads to improved survival

• The absolute benefit remains small, but is more significant in men < 65 yrs old

• At this point in followup, 17 RPs for 1 life saved

Watchful Waiting

• 767 Active Surveillance patients in Connecticut

• Mean age: 68 years

• Mean f/u: 15.4 years

• Death certificates, path reviewed

Albertson et al

Prognosis as a Function of Age and Gleason Score: Localized Disease

Albertsen et al. JAMA 280: 975-80

Conclusions• A subset of men have aggressive disease

that poses a threat to their survival• Most men with prostate cancer will not die

from their disease. Gleason score, determined by biopsy, is the most critical factor in determining prognosis for patients with localized disease

• Active Surveillance is a reasonable option for men with life expectancy of less than 10 years or for some men with low volume (few biopsy cores positive) Gleason 6 or less tumors