Prospects for the development of Renewable energy resource (RES)

in the Kyrgyz Republic

Climate Change Centre of the Kyrgyz Republic

Oksana Zabenko

Specifics of the Economic growth of GDP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Mln. $2005

Industry AgriculutureConstruction Trade & Public cateringTransport & Communication Other Sectors

Primary energy consumption for 2011

Coal

23,4%

Natural gas

8,1%

Hydro

33,1%

Oil 35,3%

Import dependence

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro

Import

Export

Production

GHG emission trends

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Tg Waste Agriculture

Industry Energy

Scenarios of Economic Development

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

$2005/capita fact

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Use of Hydropower Capacity

At present, the Hydropower Capacity of the country is already being used by 18% (for large hydro-electric power stations by 19.5%, for small ones – 4%).

During the construction of the planned hydro-electric power stations, the use of the capacity is increased to 46% (for large hydro-electric power stations to 48.8%, while for small ones to 21.3%).

Hydropower Capacity for Climate Scenario RCP8.5, TW/h

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Карадарья

Фергана-юг

Фергана -север

Нарын

Балхаш

Тарим

Кызылсу

Чатыр-Куль

Талас

Чу

Иссык-Куль

Requisite of renewable energy

For the optimistic scenario of economic development, the projected demand for electricity has already exceeded the available capacity by mid-century.

Further economic development is impossible without the use of renewable energy, as their own sources of fossil fuels in the Kyrgyz Republic are insignificant.

Assessment of renewable energy capacity

1. Biomass (live stock breeding, plant breeding, food industry, waste) – 82 thousand tons of oil equivalent

2. Solar – PV till 300 kW h/m2, heat till 750 kW h (heating)/m2

3. Geothermal energy– heat pumps >600 thousand tons of oil equivalent

4. Wind energy – low level

5. Hydropower (small hydro-electric power stations) – 3,5 ÷ 5,1 TW h

Intended Operation

Steps to large-scale implementation of 4 types of renewable energy sources (biomass, solar energy PV and heat, geothermal energy, hydropower) are included in the INDC project of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Our approach is to ensure the following target by 2050: emission below 1.6 tons СО2 per capita.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Gg CO2-e

Action

BAU

Emission tendencies

№ Planned Action Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

2020 2050 2020 2050 2020 2050

1 Reduction of heat losses 82,4 251,2 80,5 216,8 81,0 230,0

2 Introduction of EE standards in

buildings

90,9 554,3 74,2 281,7 76,0 331,9

3 Improving the EE of existing

building stock

123,2 408,8 123,6 469,9 123,2 454,3

4 Reduction of electro power

losses

114,0 199,6 109,9 157,3 104,0 136,2

5 Reduction of gas leakage 860,1 1195,0 860,1 1435,0 791,5 812,7

6 Transport 1651,8 3338,4 1395,8 1881,8 1329,2 1654,6

7 Biomass 352,7 1302,9 347,0 1224,9 357,7 1135,9

8 Solar energy - electricity 13,0 50,8 13,0 50,8 13,0 50,8

9 Solar energy - heat 78,0 284,5 78,4 281,5 79,1 323,5

10 Geothermal energy 136,2 526,5 137,2 523,1 138,8 611,7

11 Hydropower 49,0 49,0 49,0 49,0 49,0 49,0

Total 3890,9 9257,0 3608,4 8402,7 3482,2 6964,3

Possible national capacity for

performance

1874,0 3953,6 1721,8 3214,3 1619,8 2599,8

% 48 42 48 38 47 37

Thank you for the attention!

Climate Change Centre

Kyrgyz Republic

142, Gorkiy str., Bishkek, 720005

Tel./Fax: +996 312 54 37 37

E-mail: kgclimate@gmail.com