prospective plantings - cornell university€¦ · 31/3/2004 · 95 500 130 50 3,650 80 78,894 220...

Cr Pr 2-4 (3-04) a

Washington, D.C.

ProspectivePlantings

Released March 31, 2004, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department ofAgriculture. For information on "Prospective Plantings" call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Planted Acreage Up Fractionally from 2003Soybean Acreage Up 3 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Down 4 PercentAll Cotton Acreage Up 7 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 79.0 million acres, up fractionally from both 2002 and2003. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt as growers are hoping to takeadvantage of higher corn prices. However, most States in the Southeast and southern Great Plains areintending to decrease their corn plantings as producers are switching to soybeans and cotton due to morefavorable prices relative to corn.

Soybean growers intend to plant an estimated 75.4 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. If realized, thiswill be the largest planted area on record and a rebound from the three year decline in acreage. Growers in allStates, except South Dakota and Wisconsin, intend to plant more than or at least as many acres of soybeans aslast year. Current high prices are encouraging many producers to plant more soybeans, with the largestacreage increases expected in North Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Minnesota.

All wheat planted area is expected to total 59.5 million acres in 2004, down 4 percent from 2003. Winterwheat planted area for the 2004 crop is 43.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2003. Of the total, about30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.3 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 million acres areWhite Winter. The 2004 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at 13.3 million, down 4 percentfrom last year. Of the total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Area planted to Durumwheat is intended to total 2.76 million acres, down 5 percent from a year ago.

All Cotton plantings for 2004 are expected to total 14.4 million acres, 7 percent above last year. Uplandacreage is expected to total 14.2 million acres, also a 7 percent increase. All States are expecting moreacreage than last year except for North Carolina and Mississippi. American-Pima cotton growers intend toincrease their plantings to 226,600 acres, up 27 percent from 2003. The increase is primarily in Californiawhere producers are intending to plant 50,000 acres more than last year.

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2004 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 31, 2004.

Secretary ofAgriculture

Ann M. Veneman

Agricultural Statistics BoardChairpersonRich Allen


Contents

Page

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Reliability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

Barley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Beans, Dry Edible . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Canola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Biotechnology Varieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Biotechnology Varieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Biotechnology Varieties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Sunflowers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Sweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9


Corn: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

US

20060

265545

1,20032

18075

340190

11,1005,400

12,2003,2501,160

58029

51022

2,2507,200

5502,800

658,400

41590

1401,020

7801,2303,250

24048

1,4002

3204,450

6902,050

5795

500130

503,650

80

78,894

22047

365520

1,08030

17075

340190

11,2005,600

12,4002,9001,170

52028

48020

2,3007,200

5502,900

658,100

41580

1301,000

7401,4503,300

23051

1,4502

2404,400

7101,830

5596

470130

483,750

85

78,736

22047

280550

1,15030

16565

330180

11,2005,600

12,5003,0001,190

45028

49020

2,3507,400

4502,950

708,000

41585

140960760

1,6003,400

21057

1,4002

2904,450

6501,750

6190

440150

453,650

80

79,004

100100

77106106100

97879795

100100101103102

87100102100102103

82102108

99100100106108

96103110103

91112

97100121101

9296

1119494

115949794

100 1 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.


Sorghum: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


ALAZARCACODEGAILKSKYLAMDMSMONENMNCOKPASCSDTNTXVA

US

1015

24017

3502

5580

3,80012

1805

80200450170

17430

117

22030

3,2008

9,589

1017

22518

2702

55110

3,55033

1706

75215660140

18300

157

27045

3,2009

9,420

1015

11019

3402

50110

3,40020

1005

40175550130

18290

157

35035

2,8009

8,600

1008849

106126100

91100

9661598353818393

10097

100100130

7888

100



Oats: Area Planted and Harvested by Stateand United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted Area Harvested

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003 2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

CACOGAIDILINIAKSMEMIMNMOMTNENYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTXUTWAWIWY

US

2606590

1256520

290140

2880

42065

135175

7565

670708570

14050

470750

6032

43070

4,995

260100100120

6025

220140

3190

35030

120220

8555

620807060

14040

420625

6535

38060

4,601

2809080

1255025

200130

3090

29022

130155

9560

550705060

14040

400600

6530

40550

4,312

1089080

10483

100919397

1008373

10870

112109

898871

100100100

9596

10086

10783

94

328

25254514

175602765

2653550556525

300552030

11525

120140

413

25015

2,058

351530255015

130703075

2651845907022

360602520

11020

230140

615

23023

2,224

353025254016

120602975

2001350707530

300501530

12025

220130

915

24020

2,067

100200

83100

80107

928697

1007572

11178

107136

838360

150109125

9693

150100104

87

93 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended area planted and to be planted and area to be harvested for grain in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.


Barley: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003


AZCACODEIDKSKYMEMDMIMNMTNENVNJNYNCNDOHORPASDUTVAWAWIWY

US

46130

8525

73089

284314

1901,180

644

1125

1,6007

7870807075

3505585

5,008

32100

8525

75099

284515

1901,100

654

1420

2,0507

7075754575

3205590

5,299

35110

7525

70010

9283714

110950

544

1520

1,8005

6270705050

2904590

4,683

109110

88100

93111100100

829358868380

100107100

8871899393

111679182

100

88 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.


All Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003


ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY

US

15099

950625

2,3755519

3301,150

660340

209,700

530230185450

2,040230900

5,7901,650

1338

480120600

9,080860

6,200945190200

3,030470

6,400155230

2,45012

208159

60,318

150119700805

2,6305020

3801,240

850460

2110,400

480155165680

1,877150960

5,2901,900

1231

500130530

8,6301,0606,6001,115

175200

3,028430

6,600175210

2,40012

212168

61,700

120109720660

2,3174520

3301,1701,000

43026

9,900480150160630

1,627220

1,0505,2701,950

1428

470100630

8,440900

6,4001,020

140190

3,220400

6,100153180

2,2808

247158

59,462

8092

103828890

1008794

11893

12495

10097979387

147109100103117

909477

119988597918095

106939287869567

11794

96 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings for 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.


Winter Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2004/2003


ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY

US

1506

950530

2,3505519

330670660340

209,700

530230185450

35230900

1,4501,650

638

480120600

80860

6,200800190200

1,300470

6,400140230

1,85012

200150

41,766

1504

700675

2,6005020

380760850460

2110,400

480155165680

25150960

1,8001,900

731

500130530130

1,0606,600

970175200

1,600430

6,600160210

1,85012

205160

44,945

1204

720550

2,3004520

330720

1,000430

269,900

480150160630

25220

1,0501,8501,950

628

470100630240900

6,400870140190

1,700400

6,100140180

1,8008

240150

43,372

80100103

818890

1008795

11893

12495

100979793

100147109103103

86909477

119185

8597908095

106939288869767

11794

97 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall.


Durum Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003


AZCAMNMTNDSD

US

9395

5590

2,10030

2,913

115130

2640

2,00028

2,915

105110

2620

1,90020

2,757

9185

100979571

95 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall in AZ and CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


COIDMNMTNVNDORSDUTWAWIWY

US

25480

2,0003,750

76,900

1451,700

15600

89

15,639

30480

1,8502,850

56,500

1451,400

15550

78

13,840

17450

1,6002,800

86,300

1501,500

13480

78

13,333

57948698

16097

103107

8787

100100



Rice: Area Planted by Class, State,and United States, 2002-2004

Classand

State

Area Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


Long Grain AR CA LA MS MO TX

US

Medium Grain AR CA LA MO TX

US

Short Grain AR CA 2

US

All AR CA LA MS MO TX

US

1,3507

530255190205

2,537

165500

1001

676

126

27

1,516533540255190206

3,240

1,3007

435235175180

2,332

165460

2011

647

142

43

1,466509455235176181

3,022

1,4006

510235185190

2,526

160510

2012

693

140

41

1,561556530235186192

3,260

10886

117100106106

108

97111100100200

107

10095

95

106109116100106106

108 1 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Sweet rice acreage included in 2003 and 2004, but not previous years.


All Hay: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Harvested

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

US

825275

1,4301,7501,330

6215

280650

1,490775600

1,6003,2502,420

420157220

861,1002,100

7504,2502,6003,050

48554

120360

1,710750

3,3001,3203,1501,1151,730

8340

3,8501,9805,450

715240

1,390820570

2,050950

63,942

780275

1,3401,5701,500

6013

255600

1,500775650

1,6003,2502,450

380128195

901,0502,075

7504,2502,4503,150

44055

120300

1,850778

2,9501,3502,8101,1151,650

8340

4,3002,0305,240

700235

1,280810545

2,1001,200

63,342

800260

1,3501,4801,340

6513

250650

1,540750650

1,6003,2002,350

400125200

801,1002,100

7504,4502,6003,100

49055

120300

1,850760

2,9001,4002,7001,1051,750

8300

4,4002,0005,300

700240

1,390800560

2,2001,200

63,731

10395

1019489

108100

98108103

97100100

9896

10598

10389

105101100105106

98111100100100100

9898

1049699

106100

88102

99101100102109

99103105100

101 1 Intended area harvested in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.


Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI

US

1702,950

19010

16010,600

5,80010,450

2,7501,310

800490

2,0507,2001,4405,0504,700

100145

1,3702,6704,750

280405435

4,2501,160

230490

181,540

73,963

1702,920

18013

19010,300

5,45010,600

2,6001,250

760435

2,0007,5001,4405,0004,550

90140

1,4503,1504,300

270380430

4,2501,150

200500

161,720

73,404

1803,050

20015

23010,300

5,45010,700

2,7001,250

980475

2,0007,7001,6505,1004,650

95190

1,5003,7004,350

300390480

4,1001,180

270510

161,700

75,411

106104111115121100100101104100129109100103115102102106136103117101111103112

96103135102100

99


Peanuts: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


ALFLGANMNCOKSCTXVA

US

185.096.0

510.018.0

101.060.010.0

315.058.0

1,353.0

190.0125.0545.0

18.0101.0

37.019.0

275.034.0

1,344.0

195.0140.0565.0

16.0102.0

30.033.0

250.035.0

1,366.0

103112104

89101

81174

91103



Sunflowers: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2002-2004

VarietalType and

State

Area Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

Non-Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

All CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

95200

4047

1,150535

10

49

2,126

35153013

220105

25

12

455

130215

7060

1,370640

35

61

2,581

95170

5551

1,060475

17

75

1,998

35233515

1503042

16

346

130193

9066

1,210505

59

91

2,344

70170

4040

1,000380

20

75

1,795

25203515

1203030

16

291

95190

7555

1,120410

50

91

2,086

74100

73789480

118

100

90

7187

100100

80100

71

100

84

73988383938185

100

89 1 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 2004 estimates carried forward from 2003. First 2004 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2004. 3 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY.

Canola: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


MNND

Oth Sts 2 3

US

801,300

80

1,460

57970

55

1,082

60850

55

965

10588

100

89 1 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 2004 estimates carried forward from 2003. First 2004 estimate will be published in "Acreage" on June 30, 2004. 3 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA.


Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2002-2004

Typeand

State

Area Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


Upland AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA

US

Amer-Pima AZ CA NM TX

US

All AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA

US

590.0215.0960.0480.0120.0

1,450.080.0

520.01,170.0

380.054.0

940.0200.0290.0565.0

5,600.0100.0

13,714.0

8.3210.0

7.118.5

243.9

590.0223.3960.0690.0120.0

1,450.080.0

520.01,170.0

380.061.1

940.0200.0290.0565.0

5,618.5100.0

13,957.9

525.0215.0980.0550.0

94.01,300.0

90.0525.0

1,110.0400.0

56.0810.0180.0220.0560.0

5,600.089.0

13,304.0

3.0150.0

6.120.0

179.1

525.0218.0980.0700.0

94.01,300.0

90.0525.0

1,110.0400.0

62.1810.0180.0220.0560.0

5,620.089.0

13,483.1

550.0220.0

1,050.0560.0105.0

1,350.0130.0600.0

1,100.0410.0

60.0790.0210.0260.0590.0

6,100.090.0

14,175.0

2.6200.0

8.016.0

226.6

550.0222.6

1,050.0760.0105.0

1,350.0130.0600.0

1,100.0410.0

68.0790.0210.0260.0590.0

6,116.090.0

14,401.6

105102107102112104144114

99103107

98117118105109101

107

87133131

80

127

105102107109112104144114

99103110

98117118105109101



Sugarbeets: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003


CACOIDMIMNMTNENDOHORWAWY

US

50.243.9

212.0179.0505.0

58.057.0

265.01.9

11.34.0

40.0

1,427.3

50.828.6

208.0179.0492.0

51.745.3

259.01.99.74.4

35.0

1,365.4

50.542.0

197.0173.0486.0

54.045.0

255.01.9

11.04.2

39.0

1,358.6

99147

959799

1049998

100113

95111

100 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in

central CA and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Tobacco: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Harvested

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003

Acres Acres Acres Percent

CTFLGAINKYMDMAMONCOHPASCTNVAWVWI

US

2,0004,600

26,5004,000

111,1001,2001,1601,400

168,3005,5003,400

30,50035,90030,000

1,3001,450

428,310

2,2004,400

27,0004,200

112,3001,5001,2301,300

159,7005,3003,700

30,00034,14026,220

1,2001,820

416,210

2,3504,200

24,0004,300

113,6001,0001,1501,300

158,5005,8004,200

27,00033,38030,770

1,3001,700

414,550

1079589

102101

6793

10099

109114

9098

117108

93



Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2002-2004

Class and TypeArea Harvested

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


Class 1, Flue-cured Type 11, Old Belts NC VA US Type 12, Eastern NC Belt NC Type 13, NC Border & SC Belt NC SC US Type 14, GA-FL Belt FL GA US Total 11-14Class 2, Fire-cured Type 21, VA Belt VA Type 22, Eastern District KY TN US Type 23, Western District KY TN US Total 21-23Class 3, Air-cured Class 3A, Light Air-cured Type 31, Burley IN KY MO NC OH TN VA WV US Type 32, Southern MD Belt MD PA US Total 31-32

43,00022,00065,000

98,000

21,00030,50051,500

4,60026,50031,100

245,600

730

2,4505,0007,450

2,400390

2,79010,970

4,000103,000

1,4006,3005,500

30,0007,2001,300

158,700

1,2001,3002,500

161,200

40,00019,00059,000

94,000

20,00030,00050,000

4,40027,00031,400

234,400

650

2,5005,2007,700

2,400400

2,80011,150

4,200104,000

1,3005,7005,300

28,0006,5001,200

156,200

1,5001,3002,800

159,000

40,00023,00063,000

93,000

20,00027,00047,000

4,20024,00028,200

231,200

700

2,6005,4008,000

2,500420

2,92011,620

4,300105,000

1,3005,5005,800

27,0007,0001,300

157,200

1,0002,0003,000

160,200

100121107

99

1009094

95899099

108

104104104

104105104104

102101100

96109

96108108101

67154107101

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued


Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2002-2004 (continued)

Class and TypeArea Harvested

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


Class 3, Air-curedClass 3B, Dark Air-cured Type 35, One Sucker Belt KY TN US Type 36, Green River Belt KY Type 37, VA Sun-cured Belt VA Total 35-37Class 4, Cigar Filler Type 41, PA Seedleaf PAClass 5, Cigar Binder Class 5A, CT Valley Binder Type 51, CT Valley Broadleaf CT MA US Class 5B, WI Binder Type 54, Southern WI WI Type 55, Northern WI WI Total 54-55 Total 51-55Class 6, Cigar Wrapper Type 61, CT Valley Shade-grown CT MA USAll Cigar Types Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,100510

2,610

1,150

703,830

2,100

1,350850

2,200

1,150

3001,4503,650

650310960

6,710

428,310

2,200540

2,740

1,200

704,010

2,400

1,400950

2,350

1,400

4201,8204,170

800280

1,080

7,650

416,210

2,300560

2,860

1,200

704,130

2,200

1,500850

2,350

1,300

4001,7004,050

850300

1,150

7,400

414,550

105104104

100

100103

92

10789

100

93

959397

106107106

97



Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2002-2004 1

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 2 2004/2003


CACOIDKSMIMNMTNENMNYNDORSDTXUTWAWIWY

US

92.092.095.021.0

270.0170.0

26.9185.0

8.525.0

790.09.8

21.037.5

1.844.5

7.732.0

1,929.7

77.080.075.012.0

170.0115.0

13.0155.0

10.025.0

540.07.08.0

50.05.6

27.56.0

30.0

1,406.1

73.085.080.0

6.0180.0120.0

14.0145.0

10.023.0

480.05.07.0

27.06.0

35.06.0

31.0

1,333.0

95106107

50106104108

94100

9289718854

107127100103

95 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Intended plantings in 2004 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 2002-2004

StateArea Planted

2002 2003 2004 1 2004/2003


ALCALAMSNJNCSCTXVA

US

2.810.421.016.0

1.240.0

1.72.80.5

96.4

2.810.419.014.0

1.143.0

1.43.40.5

95.6

2.611.020.015.0

1.144.0

1.03.20.4

98.3

93106105107100102

719480



Biotechnology Varieties

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March Agricultural Survey in all States each year. Randomlyselected farmers across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the upcoming growing season. Questions include whether or not farmers intend to plant corn, soybean, or upland cotton seed that, throughbiotechnology, is resistant to herbicides, insects, or both. The biotechnology (biotech) questions were asked for the firsttime in March 2000. The States published individually in the following tables represent 82 percent of all corn plantedacres, 89 percent of all soybean planted acres, and 81 percent of all upland cotton planted acres.

Conventionally bred herbicide resistant varieties were excluded. Insect resistant varieties include only those containingbacillus thuringiensis (Bt). These Bt varieties include those that contain more than one gene that can resist differenttypes of insects. Stacked gene varieties only include those containing biotech traits for both herbicide and insectresistance.

The acreage estimates are subject to sampling variability because all operations planting biotech varieties are notincluded in the sample. The variability for the 48 corn States, as measured by the relative standard error, isapproximately 1.5 percent for all biotech varieties, 2.4 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 3.5 percent forherbicide resistant only varieties, and 5.0 percent for stacked gene varieties. This means that chances are approximately95 out of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 3.0 percent for all biotech varieties, 4.8 percent forinsect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 7.0 percent for herbicide resistant varieties, and 10.0 percent for stacked genevarieties. Variability for the 31 soybean States is approximately 0.6 percent for herbicide resistant varieties. Variabilityfor the 17 upland cotton States is approximately 1.5 percent for all biotech varieties, 6.1 percent for insect resistant (Bt)only varieties, 3.5 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 3.2 percent for stacked gene varieties.

Corn: Biotechnology Varieties by State andUnited States, Percent of All Corn Planted, 2003-2004

StateInsect Resistant (Bt) Herbicide Resistant

2003 2004 2003 2004

Percent Percent Percent Percent

ILINIAKSMIMNMONEOHSDWI

Oth Sts 1

US

238

332518313236

63421

17

25

2810373016303241103224

20

27

478

171415

911

324

9

17

11

58

111816191115

52813

18

14

Stacked Gene Varieties All Biotech Varieties

2003 2004 2003 2004


ILINIAKSMIMNMONEOHSDWI

Oth Sts 1

US

11453715 *

172

2

4

215538481

202

4

5

2816454735534252

97532

36

40

3519535335574764168039

42

46

* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Other States includes all other States in the Corn estimating program.


Upland Cotton: Biotechnology Varieties by State andUnited States, Percent of Upland Cotton Planted, 2003-2004

StateInsect Resistant (Bt) Herbicide Resistant

2003 2004 2003 2004


ARCAGALAMSNCTX

Oth Sts 1

US

249

14301516

8

18

14

325

1341131418

17

18

25273215162939

32

32

263619

5132934

28

28

Stacked Gene Varieties All Biotech Varieties

2003 2004 2003 2004


ARCAGALAMSNCTX

Oth Sts 1

US

463

47466148

6

38

27

373

61466949

6

44

30

95399391929353

88

73

95449392959258

89

76 1 Other States includes all other States in the Upland Cotton estimating program.

Soybeans: Biotechnology Varieties by State andUnited States, Percent of All Soybeans Planted, 2003-2004

StateHerbicide Resistant Only All Biotech Varieties

2003 2004 2003 2004


ARILINIAKSMIMNMSMONENDOHSDWI

Oth Sts 1

US

8477888487737989838674749184

76

81

9282888991758394888981779685

82

86

8477888487737989838674749184

76

81

9282888991758394888981779685

82

86 1 Other States includes all other States in the Soybean estimating program.


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004(Domestic Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

5,299.078,736.0

4,601.0730.0

3,022.01,368.09,420.0

61,700.044,945.0

2,915.013,840.0

1,082.0

595.0110.0

1,344.01.3

221.073,404.0

2,344.0

13,483.113,304.0

179.11,365.4

21.11,406.1

337.5246.0

1,275.014.688.664.2

1,107.6

95.6

4,683.079,004.0

4,312.0

3,260.0

8,600.0

59,462.043,372.0

2,757.013,333.0

965.0

1,366.0

75,411.02,086.0

14,401.614,175.0

226.61,358.6

1,333.0

14.2

98.3

4,688.071,139.0

6,528.063,342.023,578.039,764.0

2,224.0620.0

2,997.0339.0

7,798.0343.0

52,839.036,541.0

2,869.013,429.0

1,068.0

583.0107.0

1,312.01.2

212.072,321.0

2,197.0

12,058.011,880.0

178.01,347.9

997.8416.2

15.61,346.9

328.5237.0

5.90.2

28.778.2

1,250.314.384.759.3

1,092.015.892.4

0.4

63,731.0

2,067.0

414.6

14.0

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for thefull 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.


Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004(Domestic Units) 1

Crop UnitYield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice 2

Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflowers

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2

Upland 2

Amer-Pima 2

Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas 2

Dry Edible Beans 2

Dry Edible Peas 2

Lentils 2

Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

Bu"Ton"""Bu"CwtBu"TonBu"""

LbTonBuLb"""BuLb

Bale""Ton"Lb

Cwt""""

Lb"""Cwt""""LbCwtLb

58.9142.2

16.22.483.242.0365.018.5

6,64527.352.710.444.246.733.739.7

1,416

17.9723

3,159949

1,28633.4

1,213

725719

1,15722.734.6

1,997

1,1151,6721,5841,030

1,47037,500

1,90389

367282288324377113172

274

276,08710,113,887

105,864157,123

76,30780,816

144,64911,450

199,1579,254

411,2373,552

2,336,5261,707,069

96,637532,820

1,512,2506,694.010,42677,372

4,144,1501,139

272,5552,417,5652,665,226

18,224.017,795.0

429.030,60534,503

831,204

17422,515

5,2022,442

673

8,7006,000

54,565.16,924

459,0454,027

24,43319,199

411,3861,778

15,9215,000

3,840

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for thefull 2004 crop year. 2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.


Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2003-2004(Metric Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

2003 2004 2003 2004

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All 3

Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 3

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflowers


Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 3

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 4

2,144,45031,863,670

1,861,980295,420

1,222,970553,620

3,812,180

24,969,37018,188,790

1,179,6705,600,910

437,870

240,79044,520

543,900530

89,44029,705,860

948,590

5,456,4805,384,000

72,480552,560

8,540569,030136,580

99,550

515,9805,910

35,86025,980

448,230

38,690

1,895,16031,972,130

1,745,020

1,319,290

3,480,330

24,063,68017,552,210

1,115,7305,395,730

390,530

552,810

30,518,080844,180

5,828,1805,736,480

91,700549,810

539,450

5,750

39,780

1,897,19028,789,240

2,641,82025,633,870

9,541,78016,092,090

900,030250,910

1,212,860137,190

3,155,770138,810

21,383,41014,787,780

1,161,0605,434,580

432,210

235,93043,300

530,950490

85,79029,267,590

889,100

4,879,7504,807,720

72,030545,480403,800168,440

6,310545,080132,940

95,910

2,39060

11,60031,650

505,9805,790

34,28024,000

441,9206,390

37,390170

25,791,300

836,490

167,760

5,670

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for thefull 2004 crop year. 2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, notharvested hectares.


Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2003-2004(Metric Units) 1

CropYield Production

2003 2004 2003 2004

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All 2

Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 2

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflowers


Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 2

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

3.178.92

36.355.567.254.562.331.037.451.713.31

23.212.973.142.272.67

1.59

1.120.813.541.061.442.251.36

0.810.811.30

50.9077.52

2.24

1.251.871.771.15

1.6542.03

2.130.10

41.1531.5632.3336.2942.23

0.1319.31

30.74

6,011,080256,904,560

96,038,210142,539,590

69,224,55073,315,040

2,099,570259,680

9,033,610235,060

10,445,9003,222,320

63,589,82046,458,800

2,630,03014,500,980

685,9506,072,690

264,83035,100

1,879,750520

123,63065,795,340

1,208,930

3,967,8103,874,400

93,40027,764,39031,300,600

377,030

7,8901,021,260

235,960110,770

30,530

3,9502,720

24,7503,140

20,821,930182,660

1,108,260870,850

18,660,160810

722,1602,270

174,180

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for thefull 2004 crop year. 2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.


Winter Weather Review

Highlights: February precipitation fell in drought areas of the Plains, West, and upper Midwest, reversing aprevailing pattern. Significant February precipitation also soaked the South, helping to dent or erase a 2-month dry spell. Winter wheat on the southern Plains was among the greatest beneficiaries of the late-wintersoil moisture improvements, although major dust storms on December 15 and February 19 exhibited theseriousness of the region’s long-term drought. Farther west, a late-season boost in high-elevation snow packsacross the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and Southwest improved spring and summer runoff prospects butprovided only limited relief from long-term drought and correspondingly low reservoir levels.

The only region cold throughout the winter months was the Southeast, where temperatures generally rangedfrom 2 to 4 degrees F below normal. Meanwhile in the Northeast, near-normal temperatures in December andFebruary partially offset bitterly cold January weather. Farther west, winter opened on a mild note across thePlains and Midwest, followed by intermittent cold blasts in January and February. Nevertheless, wintertemperatures averaged up to 4 degrees F above normal on the High Plains and as much as 6 degrees F abovenormal at a few locations in the upper Midwest. The West also experienced mild weather for most ofDecember, followed by persistently colder-than-normal conditions for the remainder of the winter. Wintertemperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal in portions of the Intermountain West.

December: Storms repeatedly battered the Northeast during the first 3 weeks of December, resulting infrequent bouts of heavy rain, snow, and high winds. Precipitation highlights were scarce, however, elsewhereeast of the Rockies. Winter wheat areas in the lower Midwest retained plenty of moisture from previouslyheavy rainfall, while Southern winter grains and cool-season pastures received enough rain to promotegenerally normal development. Farther west, the Plains’ winter wheat situation remained far from ideal. Although the Plains escaped December with relatively minor temperature fluctuations, subsoil moisture waslimited. Occasional snowfall provided a boost in topsoil moisture on the northern and central Plains, butexceptional dryness persisted on the southern High Plains, where high winds on December 15 triggered amajor dust storm. Farther west, wet weather along the Pacific Coast gradually pushed inland, especiallytoward month’s end. Wetness in the West Coast States, initially confined to northern and central Californiaand the Pacific Northwest, reached southern California’s burned areas (from the October wildfires) byDecember 25, triggering several major mudslides. Farther inland, late-month storminess was more welcomedacross the Intermountain West, where reservoir storage remained significantly below normal due to a multi-year drought.

Below-normal monthly temperatures were confined to the East, where an early- to mid-December cold snaphelped to condition Florida’s citrus trees. The cold spell culminated on December 21, featuring scatteredtemperatures near the freezing mark as far south as the northern Everglades. However, winter agriculturalinterests in central and southern Florida incurred minimal damage. Mild weather overspread the East towardthe end of December, while most of the remainder of the Nation experienced a continuation of above-normaltemperatures. An exception was the Southwest, where colder air at month’s end brought the lowesttemperatures in several years. On December 28 and 29, some winter crop producers in southern Californiaand the Southwest had to take protective measures.

January: The coldest weather in many years gripped the Northeast, accompanied by occasional snowfall inthe northern Mid-Atlantic States and relentless snow squalls downwind of the Great Lakes. While bitterlycold conditions were persistent in the Northeast, cold air made only two significant surges across theremainder of the United States. Across most of the Plains, the most impressive cold outbreak struck fromJanuary 4-6, followed by the Midwest’s coldest spell toward month’s end. On the Plains, significantprecipitation was confined to a few relatively small geographic areas. Much-needed precipitation, mostlyrain, spread onto the southern Plains from January 15-17, followed by a major snowstorm across the east-central Plains on January 25-26. Farther north, the last week of January featured heavy snow in northeasternMontana and parts of North Dakota. However, mostly dry conditions persisted on the High Plains fromeastern Colorado and western Kansas northward into southern Montana, leaving a portion of the wheat cropregularly exposed to gusty winds and temperature fluctuations. In contrast, heavy rain soaked the Ohio Valleyearly in the month, causing some flooding in lowlands planted to winter wheat. Elsewhere in the eastern CornBelt, soil moisture remained adequate to locally excessive. Farther west, however, unfavorably dry conditionspersisted across the northwestern Corn Belt, although late-month snowfall provided beneficial moisture.Meanwhile, January precipitation was well below normal from the Delta to the southern Atlantic region,although the combination of cool weather and sporadic showers limited stress on pastures and winter grains. January rainfall was heavier in the western Gulf Coast region, while late-month downpours reduced irrigationdemands in Florida’s winter agricultural areas. In the West, mild, tranquil weather prevailed for most of the


month, following some early-January storminess. However, cold air remained trapped in many snow-coveredvalleys across the Intermountain West, resulting in persistently cold, foggy weather and air-stagnationproblems. Prospects for winter grains continued to improve in the Northwest, where widespread precipitationand a late-month warming trend melted snow and boosted soil moisture reserves.

January temperatures averaged as much as 5 degrees F above normal on the central and southern High Plainsand across the South-Central United States. In contrast, readings ranged from 3 to 7 degrees F below normalin eastern Montana and North Dakota and were slightly below normal across the remainder of the northernPlains, northern Corn Belt, and southern Atlantic States. Even colder weather was noted in parts of theIntermountain West, where temperatures averaged at least 5 degrees F below normal in some valley locations,and the Northeast, where readings ranging from 5 to 10 degrees F below normal were widespread.

February: Important changes in the Nation’s weather provided drought relief across the West, central andsouthern Plains, and upper Midwest. In addition, heavy precipitation across the South ended a 2-month dryspell. Western storminess boosted high-elevation snow packs and improved spring and summer runoffprospects in the Great Basin, Intermountain West, central and southern Rockies, and Southwest. Meanwhile,water-supply prospects remained favorable in California and the Northwest. Farther east, most winter wheatareas on the Plains benefited from increasingly wet weather, despite underlying subsoil moisture shortages. Some of the heaviest precipitation fell on the southern Plains, where a late-month warming trend promotedsome wheat and pasture development. However, pockets of dryness persisted farther north, most notablyacross parts of Montana and the central High Plains. Elsewhere, the northern and western Corn Belt receivedsubstantial rain and snow, reducing long-term precipitation deficits. In contrast, mostly dry weather across thesouthern and eastern Corn Belt helped to eliminate pockets of excessive wetness. Across the South, a steadyprocession of storms aided pastures and winter grains but slowed pre-planting activities. Fieldwork delayswere most pronounced west of the Delta, where monthly precipitation totaled more than 200 percent ofnormal.

Below-normal temperatures prevailed across the southern two-thirds of the Nation, excluding southernFlorida, where near-normal readings prevailed. Chilly conditions were most pronounced from the GreatBasin to the southern Rockies, where temperatures averaged as much as 8 degrees F below normal. Incontrast, near- to slightly above-normal temperatures were observed across the Nation’s northern tier. Anexception was eastern Montana, where record-high snow depths helped to hold readings as much as 6 degreesF below normal.

Winter Agricultural Summary

Temperatures in the Corn Belt were above normal in December, but below normal through January andFebruary. Precipitation was light across the northern and western parts of the region but moderate in the OhioValley. Snow cover accumulated and melted with fluctuating temperatures but remained mostly adequate forprotecting winter wheat.

The northern and central Great Plains were very dry through most of the winter, though February broughtlight rain and some snowfall to parts of the region. Periods of unseasonably warm weather alternated withperiods of extremely low temperatures. The warm periods melted much of the protective snow cover,providing some moisture for winter wheat but leaving the crop exposed to subsequent cold snaps. In thesouthern Great Plains, dry weather through the first half of the winter gave way to moderate but frequentprecipitation through the end of February. Winter wheat recovered from what was thought to be severedrought stress, though some acreage was too far gone to benefit from the rain. By the end of February, corn,cotton, and sorghum producers in southern Texas had begun planting, but wet conditions limited progress.

The Mississippi Delta and Southeast had a wet, cold winter. Temperatures were consistently below normalthroughout the season, providing beneficial chill hours to Florida’s citrus trees. Freezing temperaturesreached as far south as the Gulf Coast and central Florida on several occasions but did little damage to thecitrus-growing area. Precipitation was moderate through December and January but heavy throughoutFebruary, particularly along the Gulf Coast and in the Mississippi Delta. Field preparation activities wereseverely hampered by wet conditions and many livestock producers reported problems with mud.

Along the northern and central Atlantic Coast, temperatures were below normal in January but near normalfor the remainder of the season. Precipitation was light to moderate, with much of it in the form of snow andice. Heavy snow covered the Northeast through most of the winter.


Temperatures in the Rocky Mountains alternated between above normal and below normal, resulting invariable and spotty snow cover across the northern and central parts of the region. Precipitation was light tomoderate and widespread across the northern and central areas, while dry conditions prevailed in the south.

Precipitation was heavy along the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, but light in the crop-producing areasfarther inland. Temperatures were mild through most of the winter, except in early January, whentemperatures fell to well below normal. Snow cover in the region was mostly adequate for protecting winterwheat.

In the Great Basin, mild December temperatures yielded to below-normal temperatures through the remainderof winter, with extremely cold weather in the first half of February. Conditions were mostly dry throughoutthe season. Precipitation was heavy in northern parts of California, but southern parts of the State remainedmostly dry. Temperatures stayed near normal across the State.

Corn: Growers intend to plant 79.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2004, up fractionally from both2002 and 2003. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt as growers arehoping to take advantage of higher corn prices. However, most States in the Southeast and southern GreatPlains are intending to decrease their corn plantings as producers are switching to soybeans and cotton due tomore favorable prices relative to corn. Expected acreage is down in Wisconsin as good winter weatherconditions protected the alfalfa and winter wheat stands, resulting in lower demands for additional foragecompared with last year. This, combined with good soybean prices, contributed to the decreased intendedcorn plantings in Wisconsin.

Farmers intend to plant 46 percent of their acreage with varieties developed using biotechnology, up6 percentage points from 2003. If these intentions are realized, 27 percent of the acreage will be planted withvarieties containing bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), up 2 points from last year. Fourteen percent of the acreagewill be planted with herbicide resistant varieties developed using biotechnology, up 3 points from 2003. Stacked gene varieties, those containing both insect and herbicide resistance, will be planted on 5 percent ofthe acreage, up 1 point from the previous year.

Sorghum: The 2004 intended sorghum acreage planted for all purposes is estimated at 8.60 million acres,down 9 percent from last year. Sorghum acres declined or remained the same as last year in all States exceptCalifornia, Colorado, and South Dakota. The largest acreage declines are expected by growers in Texas andKansas. In Texas, the intended sorghum area of 2.80 million acres is down 12 percent from the previous year. Field preparation and early plantings have been delayed due to early March rains in central and eastern Texas. Kansas producers intend to plant 3.40 million acres, down 4 percent from 2003. In South Dakota, wheredrought conditions have affected areas of marginal cropland, and with sorghum better suited to withstand dryconditions, the intended sorghum acreage of 350,000 acres is up 30 percent from last year. Colorado isexpecting 340,000 acres, an increase of 26 percent from 2003, depending upon favorable weather conditions.

Oats: Acres seeded and to be seeded for the 2004 crop year are expected to total 4.31 million acres down6 percent from last year’s planted area. Growers expect to harvest 2.07 million acres for grain, down7 percent from the 2003 harvested acreage of 2.22 million. States in the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, andcentral Rocky Mountains expect to plant fewer acres compared to last year. Of the States expecting increasesin planted acreage, California expects to plant 280,000 acres, up 8 percent from last year, and Wisconsinintends to plant 405,000 acres, up 7 percent from 2003.

Barley: Growers intend to plant 4.68 million acres for 2004, down 12 percent from last year. NorthDakota’s expected acreage, at 1.80 million, is also 12 percent below their 2003 planted area. Producers inMontana intend to plant 950,000 acres, down 14 percent from last year and the fewest since 1953. Idaho’sintended acreage, at 700,000, is down 7 percent from 2003, while Washington’s expected 290,000 acres is thefewest since 1974. Many Minnesota growers are planning to switch to corn or soybeans, and their intendedbarley acreage is down 42 percent, to 110,000 acres. In California, however, producers intend to plant10 percent more acres than last year.

Winter Wheat: Planted area for the 2004 crop is 43.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2003. Of thetotal, about 30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.3 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 4.2 millionacres are White Winter. Moisture shortages remain a concern in the Plains States, especially in Kansas andColorado where winter wheat condition declined during the winter. Acreage declined from last year acrossmost of the country, except in the northern Great Plains, western Corn Belt, and parts of the Delta. Thelargest acreage declines are in the southern Great Plains, where dry fall conditions persisted during seeding.


Durum Wheat: Area seeded to Durum wheat is expected to total 2.76 million acres, down 5 percent from2003. Seeding in the San Joaquin Valley of California progressed rapidly from October to December. Planting began in California’s Imperial Valley in late November and continued into March with no majorproblems reported.

Other Spring Wheat: Growers intend to plant 13.3 million acres this year, down 4 percent from 2003. Ofthe total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. All major producing States intend to plantfewer acres than last year, except South Dakota. The largest declines are expected in Minnesota and NorthDakota where growers continue to shift wheat acreage to corn and soybeans. Growers in Idaho intend to planttheir lowest acreage since 1988.

Rice: Area intended for rice in 2004 is estimated at 3.26 million acres, up 8 percent from 2003 and up1 percent from 2002. All producing States intend to plant more acres to rice in 2004 with the exception ofMississippi which intends to equal their 2003 acreage.

Long grain intended acreage, representing 78 percent of the total, is up 8 percent from last year. Mediumgrain intended acreage is up 7 percent from 2003 and represents 21 percent of the total. Area intended forshort grain varieties declined 5 percent from 2003 and represents 1 percent of the total.

Hay: Producers expect to harvest 63.7 million acres of all hay in 2004, up 1 percent from last year. Adequate soil moisture in most of Texas, lower Mississippi Delta, and Great Lakes States enhanced producersexpectations to harvest more hay. Extreme dry conditions have left soil moisture very short and watersupplies are expected to be inadequate in the central Great Plains and central Rocky Mountains, whichdecreased harvest intentions. In California, reduced water availability has lowered expected hay acreage in2004.

Soybeans: Growers intend to plant an estimated 75.4 million acres, up 3 percent from last year. If realized,this will be the largest planted area on record and a rebound from the three year decline in acreage.

Of the 31 soybean estimating States, producers plan to increase planted acres from last year in 24 States,remain unchanged from 2003 in 5 States, and decrease planted area in only 2 States. Estimated acreageincreases of 200,000 or more are expected in Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, and North Dakota, withNorth Dakota producers intending to plant 550,000 more acres to soybeans than last year. Growers in theseven major producing States (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, and OH) planted 48.3 million acres, up 1 percentfrom 2003.

Current high prices are encouraging producers in most states to plant more soybeans. However, despite thecurrent high soybean prices, many South Dakota producers intend to plant more wheat than last year andfewer soybeans, mostly due to the combination of the high wheat and low soybean yields in 2003.

Producers intend to plant 86 percent of the soybean acreage to herbicide resistant varieties in 2004, up5 percentage points from 2003 and continuing the steady increase of herbicide resistant soybean seed use.

Peanuts: Producers intend to plant 1.37 million acres of peanuts in 2004, up 2 percent from last year. Of thenine producing States, six intend to plant more acres than in 2003. Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida,Georgia, and South Carolina) intend to plant 933,000 acres, up 6 percent from last year. In the Virginia-North Carolina region, producers intend to plant 137,000 acres, up 1 percent from 2003. Growers in theSouthwest (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 296,000 acres, 10 percent below 2003.

Sunflowers: Growers expect to plant a total of 2.09 million acres in 2004, down 11 percent from last year. Area intended for oil type varieties, at 1.80 million acres, is down 10 percent from 2003, and the non-oilvarieties, estimated at 291,000 acres, are down 16 percent from last year.

North Dakota growers intend to plant 1.12 million acres in 2004, down 7 percent from 2003. Growers inSouth Dakota intend to plant 410,000 acres, down 19 percent from the previous year. Acreage decreases arealso expected in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas.

Canola: Producers intend to plant 965,000 acres in 2004, a decrease of 11 percent from 2003. This is thefourth consecutive year that canola acreage has declined in the United States. Producers in North Dakota andMinnesota intend to plant 850,000 and 60,000 acres, respectively.


Cotton: Area planted to all cotton for 2004 is expected to total 14.4 million acres, 7 percent more than lastyear. Upland acreage is expected to total 14.2 million acres, also up 7 percent. Growers intend to increaseplantings of American-Pima cotton to 226,600 acres, a 27 percent increase from 2003.

Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) intend toplant 3.75 million acres, a 5 percent increase from the previous year.

Producers in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and New Mexico intend to plant 6.50 million acres of upland, up10 percent from 2003. Texas’ upland area is intended at 6.10 million acres, a 9 percent increase from lastyear. Farmers in the Southeastern States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, andVirginia) intend to plant 3.15 million acres of upland cotton, a 4 percent increase from 2003.

Upland planted area in California and Arizona is expected to total 780,000 acres, a 2 percent increase fromlast year. California producers intend to plant 560,000 acres, 2 percent more than a year ago.

American-Pima acreage intentions are estimated at 226,600 acres, an increase of 27 percent from last year. The increase occurred primarily in California where producers intend to plant 200,000 acres, up 33 percentfrom the previous year. Arizona and Texas producers are planning to decrease planted acreage by 13 percentand 20 percent, respectively. New Mexico growers intend to plant 8,000 acres, up 1,900 acres from a yearago. Factors such as water availability, the cost of irrigating, and prices of upland relative to American-Pimawill impact the final planting decisions.

Sugarbeets: Area planted to sugarbeets for the 2004 crop year is expected to total 1.36 million acres, slightlybelow the 2003 planted acreage. The four largest-producing States all expect acreage decreases from lastyear. These States and their acreage declines from last year are; Idaho down 11,000 acres, Michigan andMinnesota both down 6,000 acres, and North Dakota down 4,000 acres. Acreage increases are expected inColorado, Montana, Oregon, and Wyoming. In these States, the 2003 planted area declined due to a shortageof water, and the increases for 2004 represent a partial rebound from these levels.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco area for harvest in 2004 is expected to be 414,550 acres, down less than 1 percentfrom 2003 and 3 percent below two years ago. If realized, this would be the lowest harvested acreage since1874. Expected harvested area for flue-cured, cigar binder, and cigar filler is down from last year. However,acres to be harvested of light air-cured, fire-cured, dark air-cured, and cigar wrapper are up from a year ago.

Flue-cured tobacco, at 231,200 acres, is 1 percent below a year ago. Flue-cured acreage accounts for56 percent of this year’s expected total tobacco acreage. Acreage in North Carolina, the leading flue-curedState, is down 1 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is also expected to decline in South Carolina,Georgia, and Florida by 10 percent, 11 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. In Virginia, harvested acreage isexpected to increase by 21 percent over last season. Tobacco producers in Virginia are expected to increaseacreage to compensate for the lack of carryover into the 2004 season because of last year’s low production.

Light air-cured tobacco types are up 1 percent from last year but 1 percent below 2002. Burley tobacco, at157,200 acres, is up 1 percent from a year ago but 1 percent below two years ago. Area in 5 burley producingStates is expected to increase from last year. These States are Kentucky, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and WestVirginia which are up 1 percent, 8 percent, 9 percent, 2 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. In Tennesseeand North Carolina, harvested acreage is expected to decrease 4 percent from 2003. Missouri is expecting nochange in acreage from the previous year. Southern Maryland type tobacco area, at 3,000 acres, is up7 percent from last year. Maryland’s acreage dropped 33 percent from last year but Pennsylvania expectsacreage to increase 54 percent from 2003. Maryland’s acreage continues to drop due to the State’s buyoutprogram, while demand for Southern Maryland type tobacco in Pennsylvania is high.

Fire-cured tobacco types, at 11,620 acres, are up 4 percent from 2003. Tennessee and Kentucky producersexpect to increase harvested acres over last year by 4 percent.

Dark air-cured tobacco types, at 4,130 acres, are 3 percent above last year’s harvested acres and 8 percentabove 2002. One sucker type tobacco, at 2,860 acres, is 4 percent above last year. Green River type tobaccoand Sun-cured tobacco, at 1,200 acres and 70 acres, respectively, are both unchanged from 2003.

All cigar types, at 7,400 acres, are down 3 percent from last year but 10 percent above 2002. Connecticut andMassachusetts broadleaf acreage, at 2,350, is unchanged from the 2003 crop. Acreage of Pennsylvaniaseedleaf, at 2,200 acres, is down 8 percent from last year. Expected harvested acres of Wisconsin binder


tobacco are estimated at 1,700 acres, down 7 percent from last year. Connecticut and Massachusetts shade-grown tobacco, at 1,150 acres, is up 6 percent from a year ago.

Dry Beans: Prospective 2004 planting of dry beans in the U.S. totals 1.33 million acres, down 5 percentfrom last year and 31 percent below two years ago. Relatively low prices for the 2003 crop contribute to theexpected reduction in planted acres. Growers expect to plant more dry bean acres than a year ago in 8 States,while acreage is expected to decline in 8 States. Acreage is intended to be the same in New Mexico andWisconsin.

North Dakota farmers expect a 11 percent decline in dry bean acreage this year. Nebraska's prospectiveacreage is down 6 percent. California growers expect a 5 percent decline, while Texas dry bean acreage isexpected to drop 46 percent. New York growers expect a 8 percent downturn if current plans areimplemented. Kansas, Oregon, and South Dakota growers also expect their dry bean acreage to be down. The States that expect planting increases from a year ago are: Michigan, up 6 percent; Minnesota, up4 percent; Colorado, up 6 percent; Idaho, up 7 percent; Washington, up 27 percent; Wyoming, up 3 percent;Montana, up 8 percent; and Utah, up 7 percent.

Planting is underway for California's garbanzo beans. Most States, however, will wait until late April throughJune for dry bean planting. Montana and Wyoming growers are hopeful the irrigation water supply is betterthan last year.

Sweet Potatoes: Growers intend to plant 98,300 acres of sweet potatoes in 2004, up 3 percent from last yearand 2 percent above 2002. This intended increase in planted acreage is being driven by higher prices. Higherplanted acreage than last year is expected for 4 States, 1 is unchanged, and 4 States are expected to decreaseacres.

Transplant preparations are active in North Carolina, as most growers have planted their beds or have lined upsources for plants. North Carolina growers expect to increase planted acres by 2 percent. Mississippi andLouisiana intentions for sweet potatoes are up 7 and 5 percent, respectively. Planted acreage in Virginia isdown 20 percent and Alabama growers plan to decrease acres 7 percent. Planting intentions in SouthCarolina are down 6 percent. New Jersey growers expect to plant the same as last year.

Planting intentions in California are up 6 percent from last year. California farmers continued to preparehotbeds for plant development into March, after an earlier than usual start this year. Growing conditions havebeen good, with ample rainfall reported. Texas growers plan to decrease acres 6 percent this year. A shortageof irrigation water has forced many growers to cut back on planted acreage.


Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report

Survey Procedures: The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during thefirst 2 weeks of March. The March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of nearly73,000 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the U.S. have a chance tobe selected. These operators were contacted by mail, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information oncrop acreage planned for the 2004 crop year.

Estimating Procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonablenessand consistency with historical estimates. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the currentsituation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and arereviewed at this level independently of each State’s review. Acreage estimates were based on survey data andthe historical relationship of official estimates to the survey data. Revision Policy: Acreage estimates in the "Prospective Plantings" report will not be revised. These estimatesare intended to reflect grower intentions as of the survey period. New acreage estimates will be made based onsurveys conducted in June when crop acreages have been established or planting intentions are firm. These newestimates will be published in the "Acreage" report scheduled for June 30, 2004. Winter wheat is an exception.Since winter wheat was seeded prior to the March survey, any changes in estimates in this report are consideredrevisions. The estimate of the harvested acreage of winter wheat will be published on May 12, 2004, along withthe first production forecast of the crop year.

Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that arecommon to all surveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if manydifferent samples were surveyed at the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 and3.0 percent, but they cannot be applied directly to the acreage published in this report to determine confidenceintervals because the official estimates represent a composite of information from more than a single source.

Non-sampling errors cannot be measured directly. They may occur due to incorrect reporting and/or recording,data omissions or duplications, and errors in processing. To minimize non-sampling errors, vigorous qualitycontrols are used in the data collection process and all data are carefully reviewed for consistency andreasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of acreage estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," astatistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviations between the acreage estimates in thisreport and the final estimates are expressed as a percentage of the final estimates. The average of squaredpercentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomesstatistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differencesin the current estimates relative to the final end-of-season estimates, assuming that factors affecting this year'sestimates are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the corn planted estimate is 2.0 percent. This means that chancesare 2 out of 3 that the current corn acreage estimate will not be above or below the final estimate by more than2.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent.

Also, shown in the table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the difference between the "ProspectivePlantings" planted acreage estimates and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changesbetween the intentions estimates and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.13 millionacres, ranging from 7,000 acres to 3.84 million acres. The prospective plantings estimates have been belowthe final estimate 6 times and above 14 times. This does not imply that the planted estimate this year is likelyto understate or overstate the final estimate.


Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates

CropRoot Mean

Square ErrorPercent

90Percent

ConfidenceInterval

20-Year Record ofDifferences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Thousand AcresQuantity

Number ofYears

Average Smallest Largest BelowFinal

AboveFinal

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Number Number

CornSorghumOatsBarleyWinter WheatDurum WheatOther Spring WheatSoybeansUpland Cotton

2.07.87.75.41.28.16.42.23.8

3.513.513.4

9.32.1

13.911.1

3.86.5

1,130728604374472205880

1,209386

7312468

9121225

6

3,8442,4712,4291,3691,630

5732,5432,582

945

611

469

12131410

149

161411

876

10


Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Serviceto contact for additional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops SectionGreg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Hay, Oats , Sorghum (202) 690-3234Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds (202) 720-7369

Mark R. Miller - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops SectionJim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250Mike Miller - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup,

Tobacco (202) 720-7235Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940Jim Smith - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202 )720-2127Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157

The next "Prospective Plantings" report will be released in March 2005.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs on the basis ofrace, color, national origin, gender, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, sexual orientation, and marital orfamily status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternativemeans for communication of program information (braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact the USDA’sTARGET Center at 202-720-2600 (voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W, WhittenBuilding, 1400 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, D.C., 20250-9410, or call 202-720-5964 (voice or TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.

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