Proposed Area of Excellence and Cluster Hire

in Climate and Sustainability Studies

Walter Oechel (Biology; Co-Point of Contact),

Samuel Shen (Math and Stats; Co-Point of Contact), Trent Biggs (Geography), Chun-Ta Lai (Biology),

Matthew Lauer (Anthropology)

Climate change is one of the major challenges of the century

§  We know that climate is changing, but we do not know the regional impacts.

§  Appropriate scale is critical §  Current GCMs operate at a scale to course

(50-100 kms) to inform policy and conservation.

Simulated precipitation over California in 2070–2099 (mm/day)

Objectives and Central Questions

•  Objective: •  To become a world-class, interdisciplinary center in

climate and sustainability studies.

•  Central questions: •  How will the climate change in specific regions? •  How will ecosystems and humans be impacted by

climate change? •  How will ecosystems and humans feedback and impact

climate change?

Natural Systems Climate Hydrologic Cycles Ecosystems

Human Systems

Agriculture Water Supply

Risk Assessment Civilizations

Sustainability

Ecosystems: Carbon and water

(Oechel, Lipson, Lai)

Human-

environment interactions

(Braje, Lauer)

Climate uncertainty

analysis (Shen)

Water, Watersheds And Land-Use

(Biggs)

Climate and Sustainability

in Regions

Existing strengths and links

Ecosystems: Carbon and water (Oechel, Lipson,

Lai)

Human-environment interactions

(Braje, Lauer)

Climate uncertainty

analysis (Shen)

Watersheds, land use and water

(Biggs)

Climate and Sustainability

in Regions

Existing strengths and links

Human-climate archaeology, paleoclimate

Ecosystems-Land-atmosphere interactions modeling

Regional climate change modeling

Next generation climate modeling

aerosols and clouds

Current gaps and new hires

Increased funding opportunities

The hires enable our group to build on current expertise and apply for substantial funding, such as:

�  NSF EaSM, IGERT, ARCSS �  (Earth system modeling program), $2m for 5 years. �  (Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship

Program) $1.5 M for 5 years. �  (Arctic System Science) $2.0 for 5 years.

�  DOE Center Grant: �  (Mathematical Multifaceted Integrated Capability Centers)

$2.5m for 5 years

�  NASA Arctic ABoVE program (Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment) $2.2m for 5 years

Goal: to double funding to $5m/y

Communication and Coordination This Area of Excellence collaborates through a new Center for Climate and Sustainability Studies (C2S2) with:

�  A Stakeholder and Expert Advisory Board to meet annually �  Steering Committee from C2S2 faculty

�  Monthly Seminars and hosting International conferences and meetings

�  Monthly project meetings, frequent meetings on funding opportunities

�  Joint supervision of Graduate Students (Ph.D. and M.Sc.)

�  Support for SDSU Programs including the Sustainability Major and Environmental Sciences Major

C2S2 will support SDSU’s strategic plan of regional and international outreach

�  New: Stakeholder round table on climate and sustainability (policy makers, regulators, NGOs, business, utilities, educators)

�  Enhance: Current K-12 Education. (e.g. NSF, County Office of Education)

�  Enhance: Collaboration with CICESE in Ensenada, BC Mx (Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education)

�  Enhance: The SDSU IRIP Program Development (including with Mexico, Italy, France, U.K., and China) (International Research Internship Program)

C2S2’s unique regional distinction �  Our goal is that C2S2 be equal in reputation to, but

distinct from, climate studies at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO)

�  We are distinct in the following areas:

�  Impacts of climate change on ecosystems

�  Ecosystem feedbacks on climate change

�  Uncertainty quantification of climate change

�  Risk assessment

�  Human-Climate Interactions

In summary, C2S2 will bring increased regional and international recognition to SDSU in the area of

Climate and Sustainability Studies

and

Will solve critical issues facing humankind

Hire in Biology: Ecosystem Land Surface Modeler •  Use Regional Climate model output to predict •  Greenhouse Gas Fluxes and Feedbacks •  Vegetation, biodiversity, reserve areas •  Water use and yield •  Agricultural Productivity, incl. vineyards

•  Highly desirable to funding agencies: including NSF, NASA, DOE, USDA

GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O

Vegetation Change Water Yield, Drought Surface Energy Balance

Hire in Mathematics: Climate mathematician for the next generation of cloud-resolving models

Stochastic flux of cloud base mass

Evaporation

Solar radiation Stochastic trigger for precipitation

§  Random cloud, precipitation, and aerosol §  Uncertainty principle in climate models §  Ecological and human-climate dynamics §  NSF EaSM and DOE MMICC Center programs

Hire in Anthropology: Archaeologist of Human-Environmental Dynamics

Will Expand Anthropology with focus on: •  Ancient Human->Climate and

Climate->Human impacts and Interactions

•  Remote sensing, GIS modeling, isotopic analysis

•  Examples of Human->Climate and Climate->Human Interactions and Feedbacks

•  Funding: NSF Coupled Natural and Human Systems Maya Collapse

Hire in Geography: Regional climate modeler

-  Impact assessment requires regional climate simulations -  Topography is important -  Ocean-land interaction is important

Precipitation over California in 2070–2099 (mm/day) (Maurer, 2012)

Potential Research Collaborations

Walter Oechel

C2S2

February 17, 2017

Sky Oaks Old Stand 1997-Current

(Burned 2003) Continued in 2003 after the fire….

NEE

(mg

CO2

m-2

s-1

)

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

DryWinterGrowing

Hour

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

ET (m

g H 2

O m

-2 s

-1)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50 DryWinterGrowing

(a)

(b)

E

T (m

g H

2O m

-2 s

-1)

N

EE

(mg

CO

2 m-2

s-1

) Sky Okas 1997-2003

(a)

y = -0.39x + 46.89R2 = 0.55

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800Annual rainfall (mm year-1)

Cum

ulat

ive

NEE

(gC

m-2

yea

r-1) (b) y = 0.40x + 226.94

R2 = 0.33

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Annual precipitation (mm year-1)

Ann

ual E

T (m

m y

ear-1

)

2000 (typical year)

Month

Dai

ly N

EE (g

C m

-2 d

-1)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2002 (drought year)

Month

Dai

ly N

EE (g

C m

-2 d

-1)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Sink

Source

Sink

Source

Month

Dai

ly E

T (m

m d

-1)

0

1

2

3

Month

Dai

ly E

T (m

m d

-1)

0

1

2

3

Month

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Dai

ly p

reci

pita

tion

(mm

d-1

)

0

10

20

30

40

Month

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Dai

ly p

reci

pita

tion

(mm

d-1

)

0

10

20

30

40

Dai

ly p

pt (m

m d

-1)

D

aily

ET

(mm

d-1

)

Dai

ly N

EE

(gC

m-2

d-1

)

Dai

ly p

pt (m

m d

-1)

D

aily

ET

(mm

d-1

)

Dai

ly N

EE

(gC

m-2

d-1

)

254 mm 151 mm

428 mm 116 mm

-152 gC

+50 gC

Annual Chaparral NEE with time after fire

Young Stand (0-8 years old) Cumulative CO2 uptake

2000-2006

ppt, mm 233 401 151 386 595 716 297

Fire 2003

Old Stand (> 150 years old) Cumulative CO2 uptake 2000-2006

ppt, mm 233 401 151 386 595 716 297

Fire 2003

TERRESTRIAL CARBON FLUX

� Even though chaparral will periodically burn, it can still act as a net CO2 sink.

� Chaparral ecosystems are a significant CO2 sink

� Old stands can be maintained for carbon sequestration and wildlife habitat

LIKELY REGIONAL OUTCOMES OF GLOBAL CHANGE

�  Reduced utility of MSCP and conservation reserves (without major redesign)

�  Decreased Biodiversity

�  Increased summer monsoons

�  Increased climate variability

�  Decreased runoff

�  Increased drought

�  Increased wildfire frequency and/or intensity (Increased fuels, increased fire weather, increased climate variability (wet and then dry)

EFFECTS OF ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION, STAND AGE, AND FIRE ON THE RESPONSE OF ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING TO DROUGHT IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID ECOSYSTEMS OF NORTH AMERICA

Walter C Oechel1, Thomas Bell2, Kristen Freeman1, Beniaminio Gioli3, Hiroki Ikawa1, Aram Kalhori1, William Lawrence4, Patrick

Murphy1, Alessandra Rossi1

1San Diego State University, United States of America; 2University of California, Santa Barbara, United States of America; 3IBIMET, CNR, Florence, Italy; 4Bowie

State University, United States of America

LA PAZ

La Paz Study Site Climate

•  Hot Arid Climate –  Köeppen’s Climate

Classification System

•  Average Precipitation –  176.1 mm with majority

during late summer monsoon events

•  Average Temperature –  23.6 ºC with summertime

highs >40 ºC

Cardon Larrea desert

Inter-annualVariabilityofNEEwithPrecipita8on

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

mm

/ g

C m

-2 y

r-1

NEE

Precipitation

ID ID

ID = Incomplete NEE Data Bell et al., 2012

SeasonalVariabilityofNEEwithPrecipita8on

Hastings et al., 2005

Molly Clemens, jDPE David Lipson Walt Oechel

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON VINES AND WINES

20

SALIENT RESEARCH QUESTIONS

� Investigate the role of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature on wine quality

� How can we work with vineyard owners on sustainable viticulture � Water use � Carbon sequestration � Temperature tolerance

EXPERIMENTAL VINEYARD LOCATION

PAIRED WITH GREENHOUSE EXPERIMENTS

�  Greenhouse project currently funded and underway

�  Using temperature gradient and CO2 enrichment

�  Necessary to assess berry quality long term

�  Measurements to be taken:

�  rates of evapotranspiration, soil salinity, berry salinity, xylem embolism

�  Dry irrigation is a possibility for the future, many vineyards are switching to this more sustainable method

Year Cost Offset Anticipated Direct Costs Covered

Yield Anticipated Indirect Benefits

Total Direct Cost/Productivity:

2016 40,900 0       -$40,900

2017 8,200 0       -$8,200

2018 8,200 0       -$8,200

2019 8,660 3,000   +   -$5,660

2020 8,890 4,800 A +   $4,090

2021 9,120 12,600 A + B, C, D $3,480

FLUX AIRCRAFT TO MEASURE REGIONAL CO2 AND CH4 FLUXES (MOBILE FLUX PLATFORM CAN BE TRANSFERRED)

laser altimeter (Riegl) &

infrared surface temperature (Everest)

methane sensor

(LI-7700)

CO2/H2O analyzer (LI-7500)

temperature (thin-wire

thermocouple)

pressure, wind speed and

direction (BAT-probe)

Back at elevator wing: net radiation (Kipp &

Zonen) & PAR in/out (LI-190)

Novatel INS System (Not SDN500)

27

Regional scale

MAGDALENA BAY STUDY AREA

Zulueta, Oechel et al. JTECH 2013

AIRCRAFT NDVI (LEAF AREA), CO2 SEQUESTRATION

Zulueta, Oechel et al. JTECH 2013

MANGROVE CO2 SEQUESTRATION VS NDVI (LEAF AREA)

SCRIPPS PIER, SAN DIEGO

BOAT BASED FLUX MEASUREMENTS, SAN DIEGO

Ocean CO2 uptake, Skadberg and Oechel unpubl.

February October June

Figure Sampling path across San Diego Bay and the CO2 concentrations measured Alexander Carsh JPDE

Tributary of the Kapuas River, Borneo

0:30N

0

0:30S

109E

109:3

0E

110E

Land cover CO2 flux

0.5 kg m−2 d−1

1.0 kg m−2 d−1

Projection: UTM 49 N, WGS 84

N

0 10 20 30 40

kilometers

Water

Mangrove

Peat Swamp Forest

Lowland Forest

Lower Montane Forest

Upper Montane Forest

Plantation / Regrowth

Lowland Mosaic

Montane Mosaic

Lowland Open

Montane Open

Urban

Large Scale Palm Plantation

CO2 Flux In Kapuas River, Tributaries,

and Estuary August 2010

0:30°S-0:30°N lat. 109°E-110°N long

0.5 g m-2 d-1

1.0 g m-2 d-2

7.0 g m-2 d-2