proposal to clivar shoshiro minobe (hokkaido university, japan) emanuele di lorenzo (georgia...
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Proposal to CLIVAR
Shoshiro Minobe (Hokkaido University, Japan)Emanuele Di Lorenzo (Georgia Institute of Technology, USA)Mike Foreman (Institute of Ocean Science, Canada)Toshio Suga (Tohoku University, Japan)Hiroaki Saito (Tohoku National Fishery Research Institute, Japan, former IMBER SSC member)Hiroshi Ogawa (Tokyo University, Japan, IMBER SSC member)
Co-chairs of PICES WG “North Pacific Climate Variability and Change”
Hiroshi will attend IMBER SSC/CLIVAR SSG meeting in Mexico, June
Under WCRP & IGBP structure, CLIV(M)AR takes care of physical ocean
physical conditions
ocean
Two directions of importance of physical ocean
physical conditions
ocean
Atmosphere
Air-sea interaction
Marine ecosystems
Biogeochemical cycles
Processes & regions are different!
CLIVAR endorsed projects
West African Monsoon
La Plata Basin
Arctic/Subarctic Ocean Fluxes
Tropical Atlantic Climate ExperimentSouthwest
Pacific Ocean and Climate Circulation Experiment
CINDY2011/DYNAMO
C20C (AGCM)
Intra-Americas Study of Climate Processes
Almost for the tropics
Example of topic: Ocean deoxyganation
Keeling et al. (2010): “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World” by two mechanisms
Smaller solubility◦ Warmer temperature leads to
smaller solubility of O2 to the ocean,.
Weakened ventilation◦ Warmer temperatures
prevent forming dense waters, resulting in weaker ventilations of thermoclines water. Old waters have smaller dissolved oxygen.
Watanabe et al. 2003
Impact of PDO relating thermocline displacement on O2
Deutsch et al. (2011 Science)
200-250 m observed dissolved oxygen off California
PDO (or more accurately winds associated with it) changes the volume of suboxic water via thermocline variations.
400 m oxygen [ mol kg-1] WOA05
Oxygen minimum zone
Example of topic: Ocean acidification
IPCC-AR4
As a direct consequence of ocean’s absorption of CO2, pH (-log10(H+)) of ocean reduces.
pH has decreased by 0.1 (30% increase of H+ ion) from pre-industrial era, and is decreasing at 0.02/decade.
Accompanied reduction of saturation level of carbonate calcium, i.e., aragonite used by coral etc. and calcite.
Acidification impacts
Doney et al. 2009 Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci.
Upwelling of corrosive acidified water
Feely et al. 2008 Science
Physical processes, such as upwelling, water mass formation, advections are important in ocean acidification especially at depth.
Example of topic: Ocean Oligotrophication
nutrient
nutrient
Current condition
Future heated world
warm & light
cold & heavy
warmer & lighter
cold & heavy
Vertical mixing
weakened Vertical mixing
Near surface reductio
n
Implications: Reduced primary production Weakened CO2 absorption Impacts on marine ecosystems
up
down
How vertical mixing occurs are not well known.
Meso & submeso-scale impacts on primary production
Resplandy et al. 2009 GBC
Wide Swath Altimetry: SWOT
Benitez-Nelson et al. (2007 Science)
perpendicular velocity
Total Chlorophyll a
1% light level
We do not know much about how meso- and submeso-scales contribute to nutrient supply.
Meso-scale eddy off Hawaii Island.
Two directions of importance of physical ocean
physical conditions
ocean
Atmosphere
Air-sea interaction
Marine ecosystems
Biogeochemical cycles
Processes & regions are different!Need to widen the scope of CLIMAR
CLIV
AR
CLIM
AR
Otherwise CLIVAR may loose the leadership of physical oceanography studies.
IMB
ER
Important oceanic physical processes
For the on-going changes of green ocean, a number of physical processes are important:◦ocean vertical and horizontal mixing
associated with the mixed layer; horizontal and vertical advection due to sub-mesoscale and meso-scale phenomena; the transports of jets, striations and currents; water mass formation and ventilation; and air-sea interaction over SST fronts and eddies
Recommendation/proposal Therefore, we strongly recommend that in
their future endeavors CLIVAR, or CLIMAR, assign appropriate weights to the understanding of physical processes that influence the biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems.
For example, “variability and change of physical processes of the global oceans impacting on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems” could be one of main themes for these programs, and could be studied by using field observations, data analysis and numerical modelings.
FUTURE collaborationsFor the aforementioned theme (not air-
sea interaction), PICES especially its WG29 (regional climate model) and WG27 can contribute.
PICES Working Group 27: North Pacific Climate Variability and ChangeChair, CLIVAR PP member
Japan: Shoshiro Minobe, Shin-ichi Ito, Takashi Mochizuki, Bunmei TaguchiUSA: Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Enrique N. Curchitser, Steven J. Bograd, Takamitsu ItoCanada: Michael G. Foreman, Patrick F. Cummins, Korea: Soon-Il An, Sangwook Yeh, Chan Joo JangChina: Lixin Wu, Xiaopei Lin, Guimei LiuRussia: Tatyana Pavlova, Elena I. Ustinova, Yury I. Zuenko
If you are happy with this direction.After proper revising, we can
send a proposal to CLIVAR SSG in time for the CLIVAR SSG/IMBER SSC meeting.
Oxygen reduction in Cal-COFI region from 1984-2006 (Bograd et al. 2008)
Large uncertainty in future
Keeling et al. (2010) “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World”
The results are three times different even for the same scenario!
Stramma et al. 2008 Science
Oxygen Minimum ZonesExpands
Enhanced stratification leads to smaller primary production?
Behrenfeld et al (2006 Nature)
Physical environments
Physical processes, such as upwelling, water mass formation, advections are important for ocean acidification at depth.
Feely et al. 2008 Science
Large uncertainty for future
Keeling et al. (2010) “Ocean Deoxygenation in a Warming World”
Three times different for the same senario.