PROPHET XL™Exploration and Development Prospect

Financial Analysis and Deal Making Software

ENSYTE Energy Software Int’lHouston, TX

www.ENSYTE.com/PROPHET

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WHY SWITCH TO PROPHET XL?

• BRING DECISION ANALYSIS TO THE FIELD LEVEL

MS Excel’s familiar interface makes PROPHET XL the most functionally available investment analysis tool on the market.

• NO FEAR OF USER ERRORNo formal training is necessary, begin analyzing reserve data within minutes of installation.

• UTILIZE THE MOST EFFECTIVE SIMULATION TECHNIQUESMonte Carlo simulation is the most used and most accurate method of forecasting.

• ANALYZE RESULTS CORRECTLY THE FIRST TIME

Output tables and graphs are designed with simplicity in mind and optimized for print.

• DECISION MAKING CONFIDENCEUnderlying economic engine, PROPHET, has nearly 30 years of successful deployment throughout the energy industry.

• MANIPULATE PRODUCTION SCENARIOS EASILY

Flexibility in defining production declines allows for quick sensitivity analyses and interpretation.

What’s the Bottom Line?SAVE TIME AND MONEY BY MAKING FASTER EXPLORATION INVESTMENT DECISIONS

PROPHET XL: SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE

We’ve merged the power of ENSYTE’s sophisticated economic engine, PROPHET, with the flexibility and orientation of Microsoft Excel to create PROPHET XL, a

unique financial analysis program for exploration and drilling prospects.

Profitability Indicators and Detailed Financial Reports

PROPHET Calculation

Engine

Prospect ID, Prices and Deal Structures

OPEX

CAPEX and AFE

Monte Carlo Reserve Simulation

Decline Curve Profiles

Multi-Well Scheduler

Microsoft Excel2003, 2007 &

2010

PROPHET XL: USER INTERFACE

• All data inputs and outputs, and analysis are done within Excel.

• Data fields are color coded to designate function.

• Concise help text available and collapsible for quick descriptions of input parameters.

• Modules are organized on separate worksheets to simplify data entry.

• Worksheets are formatted for optimized printing

• Straightforward data field organization eliminates confusion.

• Customizable to Company’s specific requirements

PROPHET XL is the only software of its kind to use Microsoft Excel as the primary user interface.

PROPHET XL: STEP-BY-STEP ANALYSIS

PROPHET XL was developed to carry the user through the typical investment deal, step-by-step.

ADDITIONAL FUNCTIONALITY:• Welcome and Quick Start sheets explain PROPHET XL’s key features and detail unique capabilities of

the program.

• Report Cover page allows user to enter information regarding the prospect and user. Data entered in this sheet is automatically placed in subsequent report headers.

• AFE Schedule worksheet allows user to enter authorized expenditures for economics calculations. User has a choice to use estimated investment cost or AFE to run financial forecast.

• Schedule up to 10 wells for a prospect and use Well Detail & Financial report to analyze economics for each individual well or entire prospect.

Step 1: Set up reports, organization and prospect identification information. Step 2: Input estimated capital expenditure.Step 3: Input reservoir parameters and run production forecast on multiple profiles.

Step 4: Interpret the results.

PROPHET XL Worksheet Layout Reflects Analytical Workflow

PROJECT INPUTCompany

LogoPROSPECT IDENTIFICATIONHeader data is placed automatically from Report Cover.

DEAL STRUCTURE• Economic Limits• Oil & Gas Price & Escalators• Reversionary Interest• Ownership• Forced Investment Share

OPEX ESTIMATESExpenses and escalations are scheduled for typical exploration expense categories, including water production scheduling and associated costs.

Net-Operating overhead and various tax categories are also indicated for the prospect.

PROJECT INPUTCAPEX FACTORS• Prospect Timing• Front End Investments• Scale Investments Using

Investment Factors• Development Dry Hole Cost

AFE SCHEDULINGThe user can choose whether to run the economic forecast using estimated CAPEX or values from an AFE.

AFE scheduling is prepared on another worksheet and placed automatically in the project input screen.

RESERVOIR PARAMETERS- Select primary product, oil or gas.- Designate between Recovery/AF or

Volumetric equations- Enter 3 point estimates of reservoir

attributes.- For gas reservoir, specify temperature

and Z-Factor to calculate expansion factor.

MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONWhen the the simulator is launched, PROPHET runs the input data over 10,000 times to determine economic potential and probability of recoverable reserves.

A cumulative probability curve and histogram are generated below the simulation results. Mean and standard deviation are calculated using the Swanson McGill method.

RESERVOIR PRODUCTION & ECONOMICS

PRODUCTION DECLINESMulti segment decline curves for up to four well profiles allow for flexibility in forecasting productivity.

The production decline curve is graphed below the input table in Semi-log vs Time format. An alternative Cartesian vs Time plot is available in the collapsible help section.

RESERVOIR PRODUCTION & ECONOMICS

DEVELOPMENT SCHEDULEThis section is used to schedule investment timing and production profiles for an economic case.

• Schedule up to 10 wells per prospect.

• Run financials on any of four decline profiles per well.

• Set a production ceiling• Use a factor for sensitivity

analysis on production profiles.

RESERVOIR PRODUCTION & ECONOMICS

RESERVOIR PRODUCTION & ECONOMICS

COMPOSITE PRODUCTIONAt the bottom of the worksheet, launch the modeler to develop a production composite graph.

PROPHET uses a true rate cumulative curtail calculation to ensure that all reserves are produced.

FINANCIAL SUMMARYA financial summary is provided beneath the production curve. Additional cash flow plots follow and can be customizable to a company's specific analysis criteria.

Make unlimited adjustments within this module to obtain desirable financial outlook before proceeding to full report.

FINANCIAL REPORT

• Up to 12 years economic data• All financial indicators and graphs are

visible on one screen• Graphs from Reserve Production and

Economics page placed automatically in detailed report

• Yearly & monthly estimates for key financial indicators based on timing parameters from input sheets

FREE TRIAL AVAILABLE

Contact ENSYTE today to find out more about PROPHET XL and request your free trial.

ENSYTE Energy Software Int’l712-622-2875

www.ENSYTE.com