Property-Value Movement in Old North DurhamBy Katerina Valtcheva

Old North Durham - Overview Developed with the construction of tobacco warehouses

and related commercials and industrial ventures

Considered a bad area despite proximity to CBD

Farmers market, North Durham Elementary School have had some effect on the area

Hypothesis: Recent commercial upturn has had a positive impact on the area (Fullsteam Brewery, Motorco Music Hall, Geer Street Garden, CocoaCinnamon)

Old North Durham – Motorco Area

Old North Durham - Data Forty house values collected annually for the first month of each

year starting in Jan 2006 and ending in Jan 2013 (Zillow estimates)

Houses located on: W Geer St., North St., Hargrove St., Glendale Ave, Northwood Cir, and N Mangum St.

Built between 1910 and 2004

Average house size: 1375 ft2 (± 523 ft2)

Average lot size: 6121 ft2 (±1640 ft2)

Average year built: 1937 (±20 years)

Control Area: East Durham and Edgemont

Why this area as a control? Similarly industrial: historical roots in milling and textiles

Similar houses, built around the same time period

Approximately the same distance from CBD

Also economically depressed area

East Durham and Edgemont

East Durham and Edgemont - Data

Houses located on: Hart St., S Driver St., Roberson St., Angier Ave, Vale St., S Plum St., E Main St., Clay St., and Ashe St.

Built between 1900 and 1992

Average home size: 1432 ft2 (±476 ft2)

Average lot size: 7047 ft2 (±1413 ft2)

Averages year built: 1929 (± 21 years)

Findings

Findings - Continued

Difference between the slopes of the best-fitting line: 0.0113 in favor of the control area

Findings - Continued

Findings - Continued

Findings - Continued Old North Durham: with the addition of data points through

2013, the slope of the price curve falls from .0206 to .0108

East Durham/Edgemont: the slope of the line describing the overall trend of house prices went from positive .0319 (between 2006-2010) to negative .0275 (when data points are included through 2013)

Statistically Significant Differences

Running a Student’s t test comparing mean home prices on a year-by-year basis: the difference in mean home values between the two neighborhoods was statistically significant from 2010 (p<<0.001)

Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year

Built

Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year Built

Running Multivariable Regressions on House Size, Lot Size, and Year Built

Appendix