ICARDA

Promoting R&D in North AfricaExpert Group Meeting, 15 – 17 July 2008, Rabat

International and National Collaboration to Enhance the Effectiveness of Agricultural Research-for- Development in North Africa

K. Shideed, ICARDA

ICARDA

The Context of Agriculture in Developing Countries in Dry Areas

Food and feed insecurity Rural poverty (majority of poor are in rural

areas) Natural resources Scarcity/ degradation Declining share of public spending

allocated to agriculture Poor countries are net food importers Farming is the main market for jobs Widening income inequality Increasing food prices

ICARDA

Natural Scarcity of Water in Dry Areas

1.1

2.7

5.4

5.6

8

13

20.3

34.5

35

0 10 20 30 40

Middle East & North Africa

South Asia

Western Europe

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Europe & Central Asia

North America

Latin America & Caribbean

Australia/New Zealand

Reg

ion

ARWR per capita (1000m3/yr)

Actual Renewable Water Resources (ARWR) per capita

Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)Total renewable water resources withdrawn (%)

1.4

2.2

3.2

6.2

8

9.4

10.3

25.1

72.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Latin America & Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Australia/New Zealand

Europe & Central Asia

North America

East Asia & Pacific (& Japan & Koreas)

Western Europe

South Asia

Middle East & North Africa

Reg

ion

Percent

Percent of total renewable waterresources withdrawn

Most countries in dry areas are Most countries in dry areas are facing increasing water scarcityfacing increasing water scarcity

MENA is the world’s most MENA is the world’s most water-scarce region water-scarce region

Highest water withdrawn in dry Highest water withdrawn in dry areasareas

Future projections of Future projections of population growth suggest population growth suggest further decrease in per capita further decrease in per capita water availability in dry areas water availability in dry areas (from 1100 m(from 1100 m33/yr to 550 m/yr to 550 m33/yr in /yr in 2050)2050)

Increased competition on waterIncreased competition on water More research investment for More research investment for

efficient, sustainable , and efficient, sustainable , and equitable water use equitable water use

ICARDA

Water resources are misused and are not managed sustainably, thus contributing to scarcity

CWANA Ranking according to WPI - Selected Countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Alg

eri

a

Eg

yp

t

Eth

iop

ia

Iran

Kaza

kh

sta

n

Mo

rocco

Pakis

tan

Su

dan

Syri

a

Tajikis

tan

Tu

nis

ia

Tu

rkey

Tu

rkm

en

ista

n

Uzb

ekis

tan

Yem

en

Falkenmark_Rank WPI_Rank

Water Poverty in Dry Areas

ICARDA Water Poverty Index (WPI) and HDI for non-tropical dry-area countries

Access to water and food in developingcountries and countries in transition

Implications of Water Scarcity on Human Poverty and Access to Food

Water poverty contributes greatly to the low HDI (human poverty) of poor countries in dry areas

Direct relationship between access to water and access to food and feed security

Irrigation accounts for 80-90% of all water used in dry areas

Increasing competition on water is expected to reduce agriculture share to 50% by 2050

ICARDA

Low FWUE: Status the level of efficiency

1712

35

19

38

9

505665

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Soft Wheat Sugar beat Alfa alfa

Low (>0.6) Medium (0.6-0.9) High (>0.8)

% of Farmers

TE (Av.)

0.503 0.525 0.495

0.717 0.7020.643

0.9330.878

0.983

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Soft Wheat Sugar beat Alfa alfa

ICARDA

Estimated Technical Efficiency and the Cost of Inefficiency

Crop

Technical Efficiency

Water Overuse (m3/ha)

Cost of Inefficiency

(Dh/ha)*

Cost of Inefficiency

(Dh/ha)**

Bread Wheat 0.82 410 127.16 90.24

S. Beet 0.77 1425 441.74 313.49

Alfalfa 0. 78 2140 663.28 470.72

* based on the cost of groundwater (0.31 Dh/m3)** based on the cost of surface water (0.22 Dh/m3)

Note: Inefficiency was calculated in terms of over use of irrigation water in achieving the same level of crop yield.

ICARDA

Intensity of public agricultural R&D (Total public agricultural R&D spending as a percentage of

agricultural GDP)

Source: Pardey, P.G., N. Beintema, S. Dehmer, and S. Wood. 2006. Agricultural Research: A Growing Global Divide? IFPRI, Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators Initiative, Washington D.C. August 2006

ICARDA

Research Intensity in Public Agricultural R&D in Selected CWANA Countries

(Agricultural R&D spending for $100 of Ag GDP) Country Year of Data Research Intensity ($)

Jordan 2003 2.83

Syria 2003 0.53

Ethiopia 2000 0.43

Eritrea 2000 1.70

Sudan 2000 0.17

Tunisia 2002 1.04

Morocco 2002 0.95

Mauritania 2001 0.92

CWANA Region 2000 0.66

Developing world 2000 0.53

Developed world 2000 2.36

Global 2000 0.80

ICARDA

Educational Attainment of Researchers for Selected CWANA Countries

Education Attainment (%)

Share of Female (%)

Country Year of data

BSc MSc PhD BSc MSc PhD

Jordan 2003 39 28 33 19 17 5

Syria 2003 75 5 20 26 36 5

Ethiopia 2000 49 32 9 14 5 1

Eritrea 2000 59 36 5 2 1 0.2

Sudan 2000 21 46 33 6 26 17

Tunisia 2002 9 21 70 3 6 20

Morocco 2002 11 55 34 28 18 14

Mauritania

2000 36 47 17 3 3 1

ICARDA

Composition of Ag Research Expenditures, in selected CWANA countries, 2002 (%)

Public Agencies Private Enterprises

Country Research Institutions

Higher Education

Total

Jordan 45.8 (58.5) 47.7 (38.1) 93.6 (96.6) 6.4 (3.4)

Syria 83.4 (83.6) 15.8 (15.9) 99.3 (99.6) 0.7 (0.4)

Ethiopia 88.9 (89.0) 10.8 (10.8) 99.8 (99.7) 0.2 (0.3)

Eritrea a 92.7 (71.1) 7.3 (28.9) 100 (100)

00 (00)

Sudan 65.3 (70.2) 26.4 (28.4) 91.7 (98.6)

8.1 (1.4)

Tunisia a 73.6 (73.1) 26.4 (26.9) 100 (100) 00 (00)

Morocco a 63.6 (63.6) 36.4 (36.4) 100 (100) 00 (00)

Mauritania a

91.9 (91.9) 8.1 (8.1) 100 (100) 00 (00)

ICARDA

Cereal growth rates in CWANA Countries, 1961 – 2002

Production Growth Rates (%)

-0.9

0.5

3

1.6

3.5

0.4

-2.3

-4.7

3.1

0.7

1.4

2.4

1

1.4

3.5

7.6

1

2.6

3.7

7.7

1.2

2.1

9

7.7

-1.1

2.9

-9 -4 1 6

Afghanistan Algeria Egypt

Ethiopia Iran Iraq

Jordan Kazakhstan*

Kyrgyzistan* Lebanon

Libya Mauritania Morocco

Oman Pakistan

Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria

Tajikistan* Tunisia Turkey

Turkmenistan* Uzbekistan*

Yemen CWANA Region

• NA countries maintained positive growth rates in cereal production over the last four decades

• Egypt is the only country that achieved higher growth rates (above regional average)

Grain gap in 30 CWANA countries (excluding Turkey and Kazakhstan)

Source: World Bank 1993

Major Challenges of Dry Areas

ICARDA

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Setting Ag. Res Priorities

Item NA Regional Priorities (in Ranking)

Germplasm Management

Germplasm improvement & biotechnology (1) genetic resources conservation (2) IPM (2)Seed Production (3)

Crops Wheat & Barley (1) Forages, Vegt., Industrial crops, and Legumes (2)Fruit trees, Maize, Potato, and Forest (3)

Animals Small ruminants (1) Cattle (2) Bees & Camel (3)

Socioeconomic & Policy

Marketing, Quality & value addition, and Policies (1) Technology dissemination, IA, and Post harvest (2)

NRM Water & Soils (1) Range (2)

ICARDA

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Importance of Agro-

ecologies

Agro-ecologies

Importance (%)

High Moderate Low

Drylands 85 7 8

Irrigated 51 10 39

Rangelands 64 29 7

Forest 32 19 49

ICARDA

Criteria and Weights (%) Attached in Identifying Priorities

Country Productivity Poverty Alleviation

Resource Conserv.

Food Security

Contribution to Develop.

Sudan 31 19 14 20 16

Morocco 20 20 30 20 10

Libya 50 20 20 10

Egypt 39 15 19 17 12

Total (CWANA)

35 15 16 21 13

ICARDA

Effectiveness of International and National Cooperation: Impact on Household Income - (Faba

Bean)

164

369

961.8

108

293

820.4

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt

Adopters

Non-adopters

Difference

Average Net Return ($)

Gini Coefficient

0.27

0.42

0.7

0.99

0.47

0.88

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Ethiopia Sudan Egypt

Adopters

Non-adopters

Difference

ICARDA

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact on Household Food

Security - (Faba bean)

467

494

198

339

241

144

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sudan Egypt Ethiopia

Adopters

Non-adopters

Average production per HH (kg)

ICARDA

Assessing the Economic Impact of Durum Wheat Research in Morocco• $ 111 M of NPV

• IRR = 31%

• All released varieties are driven from Morocco and ICARDA/CIMMYT germplasm

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Documenting the Impact of Wheat Improvement Research

ICARDA

• The internal rates of return (IRR) to research investment suggest that public expenditures in agricultural R&D are achieving high dividends.

•Returns to investments in barely germplasm improvement, for example:

• 51% for Morocco. • 38% for Tunisia • 32% for Egypt • 30% for Algeria, Ethiopia and Syria

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact of Investment in Barley

Improvement

ICARDA

Effectiveness of International and National Collaboration: Impact Of NRMR

Item Morocco Tunisia

AR (%) 33 30

AD (%) 24 29

Feed cost Reduction (%)

33 13

EIRR:FIRR (%) 25:60 16:53

Environmental benefits estimated at $425/ha

52%

29%19%

100%

-31%

-11%

-70%

-33%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Small (<40 head) Medium (41-80head)

Large (> 80 head) All Groups

Farm (%) Reduction in feeding cost (%)

Impact of Atriplex on Feeding Cost

Nearly 25% increase in flock size (Ewes) is due to Atriplex Plantation

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: Targeting R&D Investments through Poverty Mapping (combining financial and

NR indicators)

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: Improved Water Technologies (SI) to Increase Crop Production Efficiency

Curve water and yield(wheat z1 )

y = -0.00061x2 + 2.89495x + 3321.20559

R2 = 0.73139y = -0.00037x2 + 2.16536x + 3037.50960

R2 = 0.629880

10002000300040005000600070008000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Water (m3/ha)

yield

(KG/

Ha)

sprinkler zone 1 surface zone 1 Poly. (sprinkler zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)

Poly. (surface zone 1) Poly. (surface zone 1)

• Improved Irrigation Technology (SI)

• Improved Germplasm

• Enabling policy environment (credit, input and output price support)

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: Improved MWH to Increase Production Efficiency in Marginal Areas

(Importance of Improved technology and Environmental Benefits)

87

17

13

17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Barley Shrubs

IRR

(%

)

Farmer Practice

Improved WH

With Enviroment

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: The Need for Enabling Policy Environment

100

1000

10000

100000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year

Atr

iple

x A

rea

(ha)

Adoption continuing (No Policy)

Adoption discontinue

Adoption continuing ( Policy)

Importance of Enabling Policy Environment to Enhance the Technology Adoption and Its Impact

Adoption Path of Atriplex Alley Cropping in Morocco

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: The Use of Participatory Approaches and Benchmarks

Represent and capture the diversity of biophysical and socioeconomic conditions found in agro-ecological zones

Adopt INRM approach end-users as essential partner in the R&D process agricultural development as a complex, non-linear and

social process Multidisciplinary From top-down to participatory approaches On-farm research, where technologies are developed

together with end-users

Involves a wide range of stakeholders with multiple interests (sometimes conflicting)

It is good practice INRM with the understanding of scaling-out and scaling-up of technologies and underlying processes

ICARDA

Promoting R&D to Maximize Impact: The Need for Scaling-out and Scaling-up Approaches

Livelihood characterization and baseline information (different scales)

Targeted research to producing knowledge and technologies to solve problems faced by a broad range of farmers

Research priority setting (potential for adoption and impact)

Concentrating research in a geographically defined area, and better integration among breeders, social scientists and NR scientists

Building Scaling-out and scaling- up approaches

Creating an enabling policy environment for the technologies/ solutions

ICARDA

Promoting R&D: Enhancing Integration among the Pillars of Agricultural Research

Diversification Options

ICARDALessons Learned

Community-based and participatory approaches

Indigenous knowledge (understand, document and supplement indigenous knowledge with modern tools and technologies

Enabling policy and institutional environment (technology alone is not sufficient to achieve impact)

Water productivity (the shift in research focus from yield per unit area to productivity per unit of applied water

Environmental benefits (importance to justify investments in dry areas)

Integration and interdisciplinary

ICARDA

Main Messages and Issues: Resource use efficiency and enabling policy to improve the livelihoods of rural communities in NA

The need for rigorous research to answer the following questions: How to address resource use efficiency, productivity

and profitability? How to ensure sustainability under highly stressed NR

base, rapidly changing land use and climate variability? What are the alternative options to improve the

livelihoods of the farming communities? What is the enabling policy and institutional

environment to enhance the uptake and impact of improved technologies?

How to better link farmers to markets, and minimize market risks?

ICARDA

Main Messages and Issues: Sources of Growth and Research Funding

Expansion in crop area was a major contributor to cereal growth rates in the last 4 decades. This is no longer a viable option given increased water scarcity

Future growth rates in food production needs to come from productivity enhancement

Private R&D contribution is expected to stay minimal in productivity-enhancing research of staple crops.

Publicly funded agricultural R&D will continue as the main source of productivity-enhancing research in NA.

Spillovers of agricultural science and technology within and among countries have been a key feature of agricultural development.

ICARDARecommendations for Promoting R&D in NA

To enhance the effectiveness of public investments in agricultural science and technology:

Enhance technology strategies and priority setting in line with their comparative advantages, resource endowments, and contribution to the developmental goals

Understand the evolution and identify complementary roles of different research partners, including NARS, ARIs, and CGIAR Centers

Define options and opportunities for optimizing the contribution of agricultural R&D

Carry out ex-ante and ex-post research evaluation for accountability and resource allocation purposes to maximize impact.

ICARDARecommendations for Promoting R&D in NA

Revisiting R&D priorities with the aim of factoring the global, regional and national developments that have occurred over the past few years. This includes Assess NA capacity to address emerging

research issues (shifting of research focus toward poverty alleviation, NRM,…)

Developing an action plan to implement the priorities (funding, resource allocation)

Harmonizing and integrating the activities of regional and international organizations within NA research priorities (based on comparative advantages)

Thank You for Your Attention ICARDA