ACCESS TO HIGH-PERFORMING SCHOOLS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROMOTING EQUITY:

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IFF, the largest nonprofit community development financial institution (CDFI) in the Midwest, provides comprehensive community development services across the region through capital solutions, real estate consulting and development, and action-oriented research for nonprofits and institutions serving low-income communities. As part of IFF’s mission to strengthen nonprofits and the communities they serve, IFF Research & Evaluation conducts analyses to facilitate strategic planning and resource allocation for states, municipalities, districts, schools, foundations, and nonprofits throughout the country. Over the course of nearly fifteen years of involvement in K-12 school improvement, IFF Research & Evaluation has developed a signature approach to assessing need in public education.

IFF’s needs assessment methodology is distinctive for its spatial analysis of performing capacity at the neighborhood level. Its school studies are also driven by careful examination of the contextual factors that influence the public school landscape. Decision-makers have utilized insights from IFF’s education research to inform strategic initiatives such as investments in districts and schools, reallocation or sale of vacant school buildings, facilities planning and site selection, identification of schools for potential turnarounds or as sources of best practices, solicitations and selection criteria for charter schools, and targeted communication regarding public school options.

IFF’s education needs assessments evolved out of a partnership with the leadership of Chicago Public Schools. In 2003, the district sought to identify neighborhoods to prioritize for the location of new performing schools. IFF’s research enhanced the district’s ability to target its school improvement efforts and led to a better distribution of K-12 options for families. IFF’s needs assessments have evolved and been adapted to guide policy and practice in many other cities, including Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, St. Louis, and Washington, DC. IFF has also completed statewide analyses of public school access in Illinois and Indiana and needs assessments for early care and education throughout the Midwest.

ABOUT IFF

PROMOTING EQUITY:ACCESS TO HIGH-PERFORMING SCHOOLS

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

November 2018

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IFF PROJECT STAFF Jesse BakkerFormer GIS Analyst

Jenny BoytsDirector of School Services

Jordan BrownResearch and Evaluation Manager

Katie ColemanDirector of Communications

Kirby BurkholderPresident, Social Impact Accelerator

Nicholas V. DiRagoFormer Research Associate

Rachel GordonResearch and Evaluation Manager

David MieksztynGIS Analyst

Tara TownsendVice President, Research and Evaluation

ADVISORY COMMITTEE Marlin BerrySuperintendentRogers Public Schools Charles Cudney DirectorNorthwest Arkansas Education Service Cooperative Kim DavisSenior Program OfficerWalton Family Foundation Mike HarveyInterim CEO, NW Arkansas Council

Cambre Horne-BrooksExecutive DirectorFayetteville Public Education Foundation

Debbie JonesSuperintendentBentonville Public Schools Mary LeyChief Executive OfficerArkansas Arts Academy Sarah McKenzie Executive Director, Office for Education PolicyUniversity of Arkansas

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This study was conducted by IFF with financial support from the Walton Family Foundation.

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Mireya ReithChairState Board of Education

Gary RitterOffice for Education Policy Faculty DirectorUniversity of Arkansas

Jim Rollins SuperintendentSpringdale Public Schools

Megan SlocumAssociate Superintendent for Support Services at Fayetteville Public Schools & Former Superintendentof Springdale Public Schools

Tina SmithDirector, Policy and Special ProjectsArkansas Department of Education

Katie TennantExecutive DirectorFayetteville Area (Washington County), Arkansas Community Foundation

Andrew WendtFormer SuperintendentFayetteville Public Schools

Jody WigginsAssistant SuperintendentSiloam Springs School District

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................... 6Needs Assessment ................................................................................................................................................................................ 10Demographic Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................................... 24District Value-Added Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................... 30School Choice Analysis ....................................................................................................................................................................... 34Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 36Appendix: Data Sources ...................................................................................................................................................................... 40

MAPSMap 1: Northwest Arkansas Study Area Boundaries ...................................................................................................................... 14Map 2: Northwest Arkansas Study Area Ranks, Grade K-12 ......................................................................................................... 16Map 3: Northwest Arkansas Study Service Level, Grade K-12....................................................................................................... 18Map 4: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Number of Students per Square Mile Enrolled in Public Schools ......................... 25Map 5: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Students Enrolled in Public Schools Eligible for Subsidized Meals ...................... 26Map 6: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Hispanic/Latino Students Enrolled in Public Schools ............................................ 28Map 7: Value-Add by District ............................................................................................................................................................. 31

CHARTSChart 1: Northwest Arkansas School Performance Rating by School Count and Student Enrollment 2016–2017 ............... 11Chart 2: Northwest Arkansas School Performance Rating by School Type, 2016–2017 ............................................................ 12Chart 3: Northwest Arkansas School Performance Rating by Grade Span, 2016–2017 ............................................................. 13Chart 4: Students Exercising School Choice by County, Northwest Arkansas, Grades K–12, 2016–2017 .............................. 34Chart 5: Students Exercising School Choice by County, and Race, Northwest Arkansas, Grades K–12, 2016–2017 ............ 34

TABLESTable 1: Northwest Arkansas Student Enrollment by Grade Span and School Type, 2016–2017 ............................................. 15Table 2: K-12 Supply & Demand by Grade Span, Northwest Arkansas, 2016–2017 ................................................................... 17Table 3: K-12 Supply & Demand by Grade Span, Highest-Need Areas, 2016–2017 ................................................................... 19Table 4: K-12 Supply & Demand, Highest-Need Areas, 2016–2017.............................................................................................. 20Table 5: K-12 Supply & Demand, All Schools Zones by Priority Ranking, 2016–2017 .............................................................. 21

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OVERVIEW

At IFF, we believe every child deserves the opportunity to attend a good school in his or her neighborhood and, with hard data and a local focus, we aim to provide stakeholders with the tools to achieve that aspiration. To that end, IFF was commissioned to conduct a needs assessment for K-12 public education in Northwest Arkansas with the objective of measuring student accessibility to high-performing public schools in their neighborhood. The study will seek to equip local school leaders, public officials, philanthropy, and other stakeholders to make data-informed decisions at the county level to improve school performance and, subsequently, student outcomes.

In this study, IFF evaluated the access to quality public education at the neighborhood level for the 2016-2017 school year by comparing student enrollment at high-performing public schools (i.e. supply) to the population of students enrolled in public schools (i.e. demand). These estimates informed both the service gap, or the number of students without access to a high-performing school (i.e. demand less supply), as well as the service level, or the percent of students with access to a high-performing school (i.e. supply divided by demand). IFF determined “high-performing” or “high-quality” schools based on those that were A-rated or B-rated by the Arkansas Department of Education’s (ADE) statewide rating tool. Additionally, this study exclusively focuses on public schools and categorizes schools by governance types and grade span.

In addition, IFF completed spatial analyses to supplement the core needs assessment by examining various student demographic characteristics, the actual vs. expected performance-based value add provided by school districts

in the counties compared to statewide peers, and the rate at which students exercise school choice in the counties.

KEY FINDINGS

Service Gap & Service Level• Almost 70% of students in Northwest Arkansas had

access to high-performing K-12 public schools in the 2016-2017 school year.

• To ensure that every child in both Washington and Benton counties have access to a high-performing school, 26,000 additional seats are required at high-performing public schools.

• Less densely populated school districts experienced the largest service gaps and smallest service levels across Northwest Arkansas. Additionally, these more rural school districts saw higher rates of poverty among their enrolled students, as measured by the percentage of subsidized meals provided.

High-Need Areas• 60% of the K-12 service gap was concentrated in the

fourteen school zones identified as high-need areas. Yet service levels vary greatly among these areas from as low as 6% in the Lincoln school zone to as high as 62% in the Springdale D2 North school zone of students enrolled in high-performing schools.

• In high-need areas, high school students had the most limited access to high-performing schools, with a service level of just 12%, and middle school students had the greatest access, with a service level of 72%. Overall, 45% of students living in the identified

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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high-need areas were enrolled in high-performing schools.

• The high-need areas with the largest service gaps across both counties are listed below:

o Siloam Springs South D1/D3/D4 o Siloam Springs North D2/D5 o Gravette o Rogers D2 o Springdale D3 Central o Springdale D4 o Lincoln o Springdale D5 o Pea Ridge o Springdale D3 East o Rogers D1 o Springdale D5 Central o Springdale D2 North o Greenland

School Performance• Over 65% of K-12 public schools in Northwest

Arkansas (specifically 90 individual school campuses) were rated as high-performing by the Arkansas Department of Education (ADE).

• Charter and traditional school governance types were both similarly rated with about 65% receiving A- or B-ratings in the 2016-2017 school year.

• 83% of all high performing schools were concentrated in just four school districts (Bentonville, Springdale, Rogers and Fayetteville). While the Siloam Springs and Springdale districts had the greatest amounts of low performing schools, with 32% located in these districts.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Prioritize high schools in high-need areas for targeted school improvement activities• Over half of the service gap is concentrated in high

schools located throughout Northwest Arkansas. Additionally, of the eight high schools located in high-need areas, only one was rated as high-performing in the 2016-2017 school year.

• By targeting additional resources in these relatively small number of high schools, especially in the more densely populated school districts, Northwest Arkansas can achieve greater impact by reaching more high-need students while taking steps to minimize this gap.

• Create individual strategic plans for each of the seven low-performing high schools located in high-need areas to address specific challenges and establish tangible plans of action to improve school performance.

Evaluate special programming needs to servediverse regional population• Though this report did not evaluate quality of or access

to special programming in public schools, Northwest Arkansas’ regional emphasis on its growing Hispanic/Latino population may require additional and better targeted educational services in the future.

• Promote equity in access and quality to English as a Second Language (ESL) service offerings on a school district level in public schools.

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Coordinate strategic planning for K-12 public education across governing bodies• Identify opportunities to enhance engagement

across the various school governing bodies, such as traditional school district boards, charter school leadership, and other government agencies, within Northwest Arkansas and establish concrete mechanisms and forums for ongoing collaboration.

• As a result, better coordination across governing bodies can lead to:

o A shared understanding and unified response to school performance challenges, o Minimal redundancies in school improvement efforts, o Streamlined enrollment strategies to fill vacant seats in high-performing schools, o A forum to share best practices and lessons learned, and o Enhanced integration of available data across educational entities.

Utilize findings to inform the implementation of the State of Arkansas’ ESSA Plan• The Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) will go into

effect during the 2018-2019 school year and aims to provide opportunity for all students by increasing school standards and teacher quality, defining measures of accountability and emphasizing school improvement efforts.

• Key findings related to low-performing schools, especially in Northwest Arkansas’ high-need areas, can better target school improvement efforts, as the ESSA Plan mandates greater flexibility in identifying the

lowest performing schools in need of intervention and determining necessary improvement actions.

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METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW

At its core, this study uses the supply-and-demand needs assessment approach that IFF has applied in many geographies to measure access to quality K-12 education. The basic methodology calculates the number of students accessing high-performing public schools and compares it to the total number of students participating in the public school system. Accordingly, in this needs assessment, supply is the total capacity at high-performing public schools, which is measured by the number of students enrolled at a high-performing public school in Northwest Arkansas. While demand is the total number of students enrolled in the county’s public schools (i.e. district and charter).

Once supply and demand are calculated, the service gap and service level are computed at the neighborhood level by combining all K-12 grade spans: elementary (grades K-5), middle (grades 6-8), and high school (grades 9-12).

The service gap is the number of students without access to a high-performing school (i.e. the difference between demand and supply). The service gap quantifies students currently enrolled at low-performing schools in need of seats at high-performing schools.

Similarly, the service level is the percent of students with access to a high-performing school (i.e. the quotient of supply over demand). The service level quantifies the percent of students enrolled at a high-performing school.

A composite ranking is then created from the average of each neighborhood’s individual school rankings by service gap. The highest-need areas will have the highest composite ranks and, therefore, the largest service gap as measured by the number of students lacking access to high-performing schools in the counties.

NEEDS ASSESSMENT

Demand

# of Students Enrolledin Public Schools

Supply

# of Students Enrolledin High-Performing

Public Schools

Service Gap

# of StudentsWithout Access toHigh-PerformingPublic Schools

Demand

# of Students Enrolledin Public Schools

Supply

# of Students Enrolledin High-Performing

Public Schools

Service Level

% of StudentsWith Access to

High-Performing Public Schools

_ =

÷ =

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SCHOOL PERFORMANCE RATING

The Arkansas Department of Education (ADE) annually publishes a Performance Report rating public schools on a scale of A to F based on data collected on test performance, teacher qualification, retention, discipline, etc. For the purpose of this study, IFF categorized high-performing schools as those that were A-rated or B-rated by the state’s 2017 Performance Report.

Key findings related to school performance in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• Approximately 66% of general education public schools were A-rated or B-rated thus considered high-performing in this study. Similarly, 32% of students attended A-rated schools and 36% of students attended B-rated schools (Graph 1).

• Traditional public schools are the most common school type in the county comprising over 90% of school types and over 60% of them are considered high-performing (Graph 2).

• While charter schools make up just 7% of school types, 2 in 3 are rated as high-performing throughout the counties (Graph 2).

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• Overall, two thirds of public schools received high-performance ratings when analyzed by grades K-12 in aggregate. However, when analyzed by individual grade span, high schools have the lowest rate of high-performing schools at just over 40% of all campuses. Over 70% of both elementary and middle schools received high-performance ratings (Graph 3).

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STUDY AREA DEVELOPMENT

For this analysis, the neighborhoods for analysis were derived from the local school district board election zone boundaries in 2016-2017. Northwest Arkansas includes 14 school districts located throughout Benton and Washington Counties and, in this study, the smaller study areas within these larger school districts are referred to as “school zones”. Overall, there were 41 school zones in Northwest Arkansas.

Additionally, the maps included in this report spatially distribute demand and supply into neighborhoods and attendance boundaries in proportion to the population of

enrolled students. For traditional district schools with an assigned attendance boundary, each school’s enrollment is distributed spatially throughout the boundary.

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Map 1: Northwest Arkansas Study Area Boundaries

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PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT

The unit of analysis for this needs assessment is the school – not the individual student. Therefore, the methodology uses school-level data to make determinations about educational quality and access at the school zone and county levels. This study exclusively focuses on public schools and categorizes schools by school governance type (i.e. traditional, charter) and grade span (i.e. Elementary – Grades K-5, Middle – Grades 6-8, High – Grades 9-12). Subsequently, home school and private schools were considered out of the scope for the study.

Key findings related to public school enrollment in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• Benton and Washington Counties enrolled over 84,000 students in its public schools, representing over 92% of the students in the counties.

• In terms of school governance type, most students were enrolled at traditional public schools while approximately 7% of students were enrolled at both charter school types.

• Additionally, almost half of all students in the counties were enrolled in elementary schools at 47% of the school-age population. Furthermore, 30% of students were enrolled at high schools and 23% of students were enrolled at middle schools according to available data.

Table 1: Northwest Arkansas Student Enrollment by Grade Span and School Type, 2016–2017

School Type Count of Schools

Student Enrollment

Elementary (K-5)

Middle (6-8)

High (9-12)

Overall (K-12)

% Total by School Type

Public 137 39,917 19,405 25,275 84,597 92%

Traditional 121 38,894 18,390 20,678 77,962 85%

Charter 16 1,023 1,015 4,597 6,635 7%

District Conversion 7 — 297 3,836 4,133 5%

Open Enrollment 9 1,023 718 761 2,502 3%

% of Total by Grade Span 47% 23% 30% 100%

Privatex 19 * * * 3,266 4%

Home Schoolx * * * * 3,828 4%

Total 156 39,917 19,405 25,275 91,691 100%

* Data unavailable at this level of detail

x Excluded from Needs Assessment Analysis

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Map 2: Northwest Arkansas Study Area Ranks, Grade K-12Rank based on 2016-2017 School Performance

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NEEDS ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

In the 2016 – 2017 school year, 156 individual school campuses were in operation within the Washington and Benton County boundaries including public, private and home school governance types. Of these 156 schools, 137, or 92% of the total, were included in the analysis of supply and demand based on their school governance type (i.e. private schools and home schools were excluded). Furthermore, 90 of the 137 public schools were rated as high-performing offering over 57,000 high-quality seats to K-12 students (Table 2).

Overall, of the approximately 83,000 students attending public schools in the counties, about 70% of them were enrolled in a high-performing K-12 school. In contrast, just over 26,000 students lacked access to high-performing public schools. Specifically, 13,700 high school students were not enrolled in high-performing public schools representing over half of the county-wide service gap at 53% of the total (Table 2). Accordingly, access to high-performing schools was lowest among high school students in the counties. Just 45% of high school students were enrolled in high-performing schools during the 2016-

2017 school year, compared to 75% of elementary school students and 87% of middle school students (Table 2).

The highest-need areas represent school zones where the service gap, or the number of students lacking access to high-performing public schools, is the greatest. In the 2016-2017 school year, 60% of the service gap in Washington and Benton Counties was concentrated in the fourteen highest-need areas (Table 3).

Similar to the county-wide analysis, in the highest need areas, high school students had the lowest access to high-performing schools. Specifically, only 12% of high school students were enrolled in high-performing public schools in the highest-need areas, compared to 52% of elementary school students and 72% of middle school students. Overall, across the highest-need areas, about 45% of students were enrolled in public schools rated as high-performing by the ADE (Table 3).

Among the fourteen highest-need areas, the individual service levels varied greatly by school zone ranging from 62% in Springdale D2 North to just 6% of students in Lincoln enrolled in high-performing K-12 public schools.

Table 2: K–12 Supply & Demand by Grade Span, Northwest Arkansas, 2016–2017

Grade SpanHigh-

Performing Schools

Demand Supply Service Gap Service LevelPercent of

Countywide Gap

Elementary (K-5) 60 39,348 29,371 9,977 75% 38%

Middle (6-8) 34 19,064 16,622 2,442 87% 9%

High (9-12) 13 24,861 11,120 13,741 45% 53%

Overall (K-12) 90* 83,273x 57,113 26,160 69% 100%

*Count of high-performing schools do not total due to certain schools overlapping the established grade spans.

x Total demand varies slightly from total public school enrollment due to inability to geocode all student addresses for the needs assessment analysis.

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Map 3: Northwest Arkansas Study Service Level, Grade K-12Percent of Students Enrolled in a High-Performing School, based on 2016-2017 School Performance

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Additionally, the largest service gap existed in the Siloam Springs districts where only 670 out of over 4,100 students were enrolled in high-performing K-12 schools (Table 4). Lastly, all school zones are prioritized by their service gap to understand neighborhood-level need for high-performing schools. (Table 5).

Service Gap (Grade K – 12)The service gap, or the number of students without access to a high-performing school (i.e. the difference between demand and supply), varied greatly across the public schools included in this analysis.

Key findings related to the K-12 service gap in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• Apart from Fayetteville D1, the less dense school zones surrounding the north-central region of Northwest Arkansas had the greatest service gaps. These school zones were all identified as either medium or high-need areas, as designated by the darker blue shaded areas on the map.

• In contrast, most of the school zones in the Bentonville and Rogers districts were identified as low-need in terms of their respective service gaps and they

also contained a higher volume of high-performing K-12 schools. These correspond to the more densely populated districts within Northwest Arkansas.

Service Level (Grades K-12)The highest-need areas are the sections of Northwest Arkansas where the most students cannot access a high-performing school, yet they are not the only areas where a substantial share of students require access to higher quality public schools. For this reason, the service level – the percentage of students currently accessing high-performing schools – is helpful context alongside the service gap.

Key findings related to the K-12 service level in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• All school zones located in the Bentonville and Fayetteville school districts had high levels of service, meaning that 66% or more of students were enrolled in high-performing schools during the 2016-2017 school year. Furthermore, all but one of the school zones in the Rogers school district also had a high K-12 service level.

• Low service levels were more commonly seen in the less densely populated school districts, as designated by the

Table 3: K–12 Supply & Demand by Grade Span, Highest-Need Areas, 2016–2017

Grade SpanHigh-

Performing Schools

Demand Supply Service Gap Service LevelPercent of

Countywide Gap

Elementary (K-5) 14 13,458 7,063 6,395 52% 24%

Middle (6-8) 6 6,393 4,632 1,761 72% 7%

High School (9-12) 1 8,343 971 7,372 12% 28%

Overall (K-12) 18* 28,194 12,666 15,528 45% 59%

*Count of high-performing schools do not total due to certain schools overlapping the established grade spans.

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Table 4: K–12 Supply & Demand, Highest-Need Areas, 2016–2017

Rank School Zone Demand Supply Service Gap Service Level

1 Siloam Springs South D1/D3/D4 2,105 314 1,791 15%

2 Siloam Springs North D2/D5 2,030 355 1,675 17%

3 Gravette 1,810 481 1,329 27%

4 Rogers D2 2,592 1,323 1,269 51%

5 Springdale D3 Central 2,257 1,067 1,190 47%

6 Springdale D4 2,311 1,159 1,152 50%

7 Lincoln 1,167 74 1,093 6%

8 Springdale D5 2,208 1,227 981 56%

9 Pea Ridge 1,796 819 977 46%

10 Springdale D3 East 2,184 1,215 969 56%

11 Rogers D1 2,354 1,405 949 60%

12 Springdale D5 Central 1,942 1,024 918 53%

13 Springdale D2 North 2,239 1,380 859 62%

14 Greenland 982 145 837 15%

Total 27,977 11,988 15,989 43%

lighter green shaded areas on the map. For example, students enrolled in school zones on the west side of Northwest Arkansas experienced the lowest service levels with less than 33% of students enrolled in high-performing schools.

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Table 5: K–12 Supply & Demand, All Schools Zones by Priority Ranking, 2016–2017

Rank Prioritization School Zone Demand Supply Service Gap Service Level

1 High Need Siloam Springs South D1/D3/D4 2,105 314 1,791 15%

2 High Need Siloam Springs North D2/D5 2,030 355 1,675 17%

3 High Need Gravette 1,810 481 1,329 27%

4 High Need Rogers D2 2,592 1,323 1,269 51%

5 High Need Springdale D3 Central 2,257 1,067 1,190 47%

6 High Need Springdale D4 2,311 1,159 1,152 50%

7 High Need Lincoln 1,167 74 1,093 6%

8 High Need Springdale D5 2,208 1,227 981 56%

9 High Need Pea Ridge 1,796 819 977 46%

10 High Need Springdale D3 East 2,184 1,215 969 56%

11 High Need Rogers D1 2,354 1,405 949 60%

12 High Need Springdale D5 Central 1,942 1,024 918 53%

13 High Need Springdale D2 North 2,239 1,380 859 62%

14 High Need Greenland 982 145 837 15%

15 Moderate Need Springdale D1 Central 2,064 1,291 1,257 63%

16 Moderate Need Springdale D5 SW 2,160 1,412 1,237 65%

17 Moderate Need Prairie Grove 1,955 1,224 1,221 63%

18 Moderate Need Rogers D3 2,574 1,876 1,213 73%

19 Moderate Need Elkins 898 245 1,195 27%

20 Moderate Need Springdale D1/D5 South 2,092 1,465 1,174 70%

21 Moderate Need West Fork 884 314 1,132 36%

22 Moderate Need Rogers D4 West 2,186 1,619 1,128 74%

23 Moderate Need Decatur 619 55 1,123 9%

24 Moderate Need Gentry 1,400 857 1,091 61%

25 Moderate Need Rogers D4 East 2,206 1,677 1,009 76%

26 Moderate Need Springdale D1/D2 East 2,073 1,552 939 75%

27 Moderate Need Rogers D5 South 2,234 1,713 874 77%

28 Moderate Need Rogers D5 North 1,988 1,488 824 75%

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29 Low Need Farmington 2,283 1,784 774 78%

30 Low Need Fayetteville D4/D5 2,563 2,111 756 82%

31 Low Need Fayetteville D2 2,559 2,269 591 89%

32 Low Need Fayetteville D1 2,749 2,665 535 97%

33 Low Need Fayetteville D3 2,243 2,162 534 96%

34 Low Need Bentonville Bella Vista North 2,319 2,254 319 97%

35 Low Need Bentonville South Cave Springs 2,227 2,193 286 98%

36 Low Need Bentonville Bella Vista West 2,327 2,298 287 99%

37 Low Need Bentonville Centerton 2,189 2,161 288 99%

38 Low Need Bentonville West Central 2,254 2,229 289 99%

39 Low Need Bentonville Northeast 2,134 2,115 290 99%

40 Low Need Bentonville Central 2,022 2,008 291 99%

41 Low Need Bentonville Southeast 2,094 2,088 292 100%

Total 83,273 57,113 42,005 69%

Rank Prioritization School Zone Demand Supply Service Gap Service Level

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Analyses of student density, poverty levels and race in this section of the report help to clarify and dive deeper into trends related to the K-12 service gap in Northwest Arkansas. Therefore, local stakeholders should review the following demographic-based maps alongside other key findings in this report to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the state of K-12 education as well as use this information to inform future policy and programmatic decision-making.

DENSITY OF PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS

Student density serves as a key determinant for prioritizing school improvement efforts, as it helps to localize where the greatest potential for impact may occur in a given area. In this study, density is measured by the number of students enrolled in public schools in the 2016 – 2017 school year per square mile.Key findings related to student density in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• The school zones clustered in the north-central region of Northwest Arkansas had the highest density of public school students, ranging from 301 to 2,343 students per square mile. These are primarily located in the southern Bentonville as well as western Rogers, Fayetteville and Springdale school zones. Accordingly, these more densely populated school zones experienced lower service gaps.

• In contrast, Siloam Springs had pockets of higher density specifically located on its border with Oklahoma yet had the largest service gap of all school zones analyzed in this study.

• The surrounding, more rural areas of the region were less dense, with only as many as 75 students per square mile in most school zones. Overall, these less densely populated school zones along the southern and western borders of Northwest Arkansas also contained many of the highest-need areas in terms of service gap.

POVERTY LEVEL

According to the American Community Survey (ACS), approximately 11% of Benton County residents and 19% of Washington County residents lived below the poverty level in 2017. Accordingly, the statewide poverty rate of 19% mirrors the rate of poverty experienced by Washington County residents. To estimate the poverty level among public school students in Northwest Arkansas, this study quantifies the percent of enrolled students eligible for subsidized meals, or Free or Reduced-Price Lunch (FRPL), during the 2016 – 2017 school year.

Key findings related to the poverty level in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• Public school students living below 185% of the federal poverty level and, therefore, eligible for FRPL were widely geographically dispersed across Northwest Arkansas school zones.

• The less dense school zones surrounding the north-central region of Northwest Arkansas not only experienced greater service gaps but also enrolled higher rates of FRPL eligible students. Specifically, school zones where 75% or more students were eligible for FRPL included the eastern Springdale school district as well as portions of the central Fayetteville and

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

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Map 4: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Number of Students per Square Mile Enrolled in Public Schoolsby U.S. Census Block Group

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Map 5: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Students Enrolled in Public Schools Eligible for Subsidized MealsStudents Living Below 185% Federal Poverty Level, by U.S. Census Block Group

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Decatur school districts. Small pockets of high FRPL eligible students were also found in the centrally located Rogers school district.

• School zones in the Bentonville and Fayetteville districts enrolled lower rates of FRPL eligible students at proportions less than 25% compared to neighboring communities in Northwest Arkansas. Students enrolled in these school districts also experienced higher service levels.

RACE: HISPANIC/LATINO POPULATION GROWTHWhite residents in Benton and Washington Counties made up a majority at approximately 70% or more of the total population in 2017. However, the Hispanic/Latino population has grown exponentially over the past two decades, making up less than 2% of the Northwest Arkansas population in 1990 to over 16% in 2017. Regional organizations project continued growth in its racial diversity in the coming years, which will likely have educational service implications, such as a greater need for additional English as a Second Language (ESL) offerings in its K-12 public schools.

Key findings related to Hispanic/Latino public school student enrollment in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• For the most part, high rates of Hispanic/Latino student enrollment in a given schools zone were concentrated in more densely populated areas where a greater proportion of higher rated schools are located.

• Hispanic/Latino students were primarily enrolled in the central Rogers and Springdale school districts at rates of 40% or more of the total public school population there. While the school zones in the Rogers district had low service gaps, the Hispanic/Latino students attending schools in the Springdale district were concentrated in the high-need areas.

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Map 6: Northwest Arkansas Study Areas: Hispanic/Latino Students Enrolled in Public Schools by U.S. Census Block Group

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DISTRICT VALUE-ADDED ANALYSIS

METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW

Similar in concept to a Return on Investment (ROI) Analysis, the District Valued-Added Analysis examined five key variables to predict expected school performance in a given district based on Arkansas statewide trends. These variables were built into a statistical model to assess school performance across a variety of factors for a normalized comparison across the county and at the state level. Specifically, IFF identified the following variables to inform this analysis as well as highlighted key insights for inclusion of that specific variable into the analysis.

At a high level, these variables seek to measure both student need and school spending at a district-level to compare actual performance outcomes to expectations at both traditional, magnet and charter schools. Subsequently, these districts were ranked on a 7-point scale ranging from “very low” to “very high” based on the calculated value-add in school performance provided.

DISTRICT VALUE-ADDED ANALYSIS

As demonstrated in the preceding sections of this report, school performance varies greatly across urban and rural, income, and racial divides within Northwest Arkansas. To more holistically compare how school districts performed, this analysis helps to determine which districts are doing better (or worse) than their neighbors at serving public school students based on expected state-wide trends.

Key findings related to value-added analysis in Northwest Arkansas are highlighted below:

• Compared to statewide peers, Northwest Arkansas school districts provided a medium to low value compared to expectations related to student needs and per pupil spending.

• Charter schools with smaller enrollments had higher value-add ratings compared to the traditional school districts with larger annual enrollments.

Variable Detail

Per-Pupil Spending (adjusted)Adjusted using the Comparable Wage Index (CWI), which is commonly used to address labor market impacts, such as cost of living and local amenities.

Enrollment, Number of Students Factored in to control for variations between school districts.

Free & Reduce Lunch Program (FRLP), % Students Enrolled

May require specialized and/or cost-intensive resources to adequately serve population. Weighted based on district enrollment and controlled for in model.

English Language Learners (ELL), % Students Enrolled

Special Education Participants (SPED) % Students Enrolled

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Map 7: Value-Add by District Based on AY 2016-17 Demographics, Spending, and Performance

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School choice has tremendous equity implications for a community, as students with more resources are oftentimes better equipped to take advantage of higher quality learning environments. To identify trends in school choice across Northwest Arkansas, this study examined rates of school choice at the district-level as well as the racial composition of students exercising this right.

METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW

The School Choice Analysis seeks to identify occurrences and subsequent demographic trends related to students who exercised school choice by opting out of their assigned school to attend another school (that is assumedly higher-performing) either within or outside of their home district. The Arkansas Department of Education provided de-identified student data for the 2016-2017 school year with variables denoting whether a student transferred to a school either within or outside of their home district and whether that transfer resulted in attendance at a higher-performing school.

FINDINGS

Overall, 2% of K-12 students exercised school choice during the 2016-2017 school year in both Benton and Washington Counties. Additionally, elementary school students represented over 40% of all students exercising school choice, with high school students and middle school students representing the remaining 35% and 25%, respectively. At the county-level, just over 40% of students who exercised school choice ended up at a high-performing school (Graph 4).

In terms of racial differences in school choice, approximately 90% of all Northwest Arkansas students who exercised school choice were white (Graph 5). With the growing rates of diversity in this region, racial equity concerns may arise, as fewer minorities took advantage of school choice opportunities in this primarily white region.

SCHOOL CHOICE ANALYSIS

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CONCLUSION

In order to identify school zones where improvement efforts are needed, the findings in this report focus on student need, as assessed by the service gap and service level, as well as school performance ratings alongside overlapping demographic factors. The recommendations draw on best practices in K-12 public education as well as the unique location-based considerations at play in Northwest Arkansas.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Prioritize high schools in high-need areas for targeted school improvement activities.• Over half of the service gap is concentrated in high

schools located throughout Northwest Arkansas. Additionally, of the eight high schools located in high-need areas, only one was rated as high-performing in the 2016-2017 school year.

• By targeting additional resources in these relatively small number of high schools, especially in the more densely populated school districts, Northwest Arkansas can achieve greater impact by reaching more high-need students while taking steps to minimize this gap.

• Create individual strategic plans for each of the seven low-performing high schools located in high-need areas to address specific challenges and establish tangible plans of action to improve school performance.

Evaluate special programming needs to serve diverse regional population.• Though this report did not evaluate quality of or access

to special programming in public schools, Northwest

Arkansas’ regional emphasis on its growing Hispanic/Latino population may require additional and better targeted educational services in the future.

• Promote equity in access and quality to English as a Second Language (ESL) service offerings on a school district level in public schools.

Coordinate strategic planning for K-12 public education across governing bodies.• Identify opportunities to enhance engagement

across the various school governing bodies, such as traditional school district boards, charter school leadership, and other government agencies, within Northwest Arkansas and establish concrete mechanisms and forums for ongoing collaboration.

• As a result, better coordination across governing bodies can lead to:

o A shared understanding and unified response to school performance challenges, o Minimal redundancies in school improvement efforts, o Streamlined enrollment strategies to fill vacant seats in high-performing schools, o A forum to share best practices and lessons l earned, and o Enhanced integration of available data across educational entities.

Utilize study to inform the implementation of the State of Arkansas’ ESSA Plan • The Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) will go into

effect during the 2018-2019 school year and aims to provide opportunity for all students by increasing school standards and teacher quality, defining

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measures of accountability and emphasizing school improvement efforts.

• Key findings related to low-performing schools, especially in Northwest Arkansas’ high-need areas, can better target school improvement efforts, as the ESSA Plan mandates greater flexibility in identifying the lowest performing schools in need of intervention and determining necessary improvement actions.

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APPENDIX: DATA SOURCES

The various data sources that IFF used to inform this study are summarized below.

• U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2015 5-Year Estimates

• ESRI, Population Estimates 2016

• Arkansas Department of Education, Student and School Data

• University of Arkansas, Office of Education Policy, State Demographics, 2007 – 2018

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