PROMISE

Predictability and variability of monsoons and the agricultural and hydrological impacts of climate

change

A 3 year research project funded under Framework 5 of the European Union (grant number EVK2-CT-

1999-00022) For more information see http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise

Talk outline

•Goals and structure of PROMISE

•Examples of PROMISE research

•International conference we are planning for 2003

World population prospects …

Source: United Nations Population Division 1998

India predicted to be the most populated country by 2050

PROMISE Partners

Bologna

University of ReadingCIRADCNRMDMIICTPCEHLMDMPIThe Met OfficeECMWFCRCCINECAIITM

Goals of PROMISEPROMISE aims to improve understanding of:

•The potential for seasonal prediction and the benefits that would accrue in terms of the management of water resources and agriculture

•The impacts of climate change on tropical countries, in particular on the availability of water resources for human use and on the productivity of crops and the potential changes in natural vegetation

Links with end-users

•Development of a data archive

•Visits to CGIAR centres

•ICTP workshop (held in 2001)

•International conference to be held in 2003

For more information see:

http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise/research/endusers

PROMISE Research and Support

Natural variability and predictability of

current monsoon climates

Assessment of anthropogenic climate changes for monsoon

climates

Impact of climate change on ground

hydrology and agriculture

+Establishment of active links with climate scientists in monsoon affected countries

Development of a database of observed and simulated data on meteorology, hydrology and agriculture

Main areas of PROMISE research

Sensitivity of monsoon variability to sea surface temperatures

Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes

Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates

Assessment of future monsoon climates

Hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in monsoon-affected countries

Impact of land-use changes on future monsoon climates

ERA-40

DEMETER

ERA-40

Integrated climate modelling

Examples of PROMISE research

•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)

•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)

•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

GWAVAGlobal Water AVailability

Assessment

Jeremy MeighCentre for Ecology & Hydrology

(Institute of Hydrology)Wallingford, UK

in conjunction with

British Geological Survey

Overall objective

• Develop a methodology for the assessment of water resources in relation to water demands which can be applied globally

GWAVA Detailed Objectives

• Consistent methodology at the global scale• Representation of spatial variability in water

availability and demands• Representation of seasonal and year-to-year

variability in water resources• Accounting for the real properties of water

resources systems• Tackling problems of international basins

• Combined treatment of surface and groundwater

• Ability to take into account scenarios of population growth, urbanisation, economic development and climate change

General approach • 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid for both water availability and

demands• Linking grid cells to simulate river network

• Models to account for effects of:

• lakes, reservoirs and wetlands

• abstractions and return flows

• inter-basin transfers

• Water demands based on current and projected population and livestock numbers, information on irrigation and industrial use

• Indices of water availability versus demand derived at the grid cell scale

Inputs and data sources• Physical and water resources data

Elevation, River network Vegetation, Soil type Lakes, Reservoirs and Wetlands Aquifer properties

• Climate Rainfall - 30 year time series, Evaporation

• Demand related information Population, Livestock numbers, Industrial

and Irrigation demands

River network and cell linkages

Indian OceanRed Sea

Change in annual water demand, 2050

Change in water availability index

2050, taking in to account:

Supply changes due to climate change

Demand changes due to:

increasing population population distribution increasing per capita demands (improved living standards and industrialisation)

-2.00 to -1.90

-1.75 to -1.50

-1.00 to -0.50

-0.20 to 0.20

0.50 to 1.00

1.50 to 1.75

1.90 to 2.00

Application of model to West Africa

River network

Density of trees

Soil type

Examples of PROMISE research

•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)

•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)

•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

AGRHYMETAGRHYMET

DHC_CPDiagnostic Hydrique des CulturesDiagnostic Hydrique des Cultures

CIRADCIRAD

Champs PluviométriquesChamps Pluviométriques

Crop Water Balance CalculationCrop Water Balance Calculation Using Satellite based Rainfall EstimatesUsing Satellite based Rainfall Estimates

PresentedPresented by : by :Abdallah SAMBA, AgrometeorologistAbdallah SAMBA, Agrometeorologist

AGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGERAGRHYMET Regional Centre at Niamey, NIGERTrieste, June 2001Trieste, June 2001

• Need to forecast the yields of food crops in order to :

• best manage the cereal stocks • control the distribution of food• start food aid in time

• Using water balance simulation to obtain parameters which enable estimation of yields.

IntroductionIntroduction

Water fluxes and their effects Water fluxes and their effects

on agricultural hydrosystemon agricultural hydrosystem

Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction

Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction

Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration

Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration

Soil Soil evaporationevaporation

Soil Soil evaporationevaporation

DrainageDrainageDrainageDrainage

PrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitation

Capillary riseCapillary riseCapillary riseCapillary rise

LixiviationLixiviationGround water Ground water

RunoffRunoff

ErosionErosionErosionErosion

( )( )

( ( ))

Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction

Agricultural Agricultural productionproduction

DrainageDrainageDrainageDrainage

PrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitationPrecipitation

Ground water Ground water

Simplification for Water Balance simulation Simplification for Water Balance simulation

(The DHC4 model )(The DHC4 model )

Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration

Crop Crop transpirationtranspiration

Soil Soil evaporationevaporation

Soil Soil evaporationevaporation

FileFile ScreenScreen GISGIS Spreadsheet Spreadsheet PrinterPrinter

METEOSATMETEOSATSatelliteSatellite

DATA BASESDATA BASES PETPET Historical rainfall dataHistorical rainfall data

Stochastic Rainfall Generation Stochastic Rainfall Generation Parameter CalibrationParameter Calibration

n yearsn yearsx stationsx stations

n stationsn stations

AGRHYMETAGRHYMET

RESULTSRESULTSRESULTSRESULTS

Agrometeorological Agrometeorological StationsStations

WATER BALANCEWATER BALANCESIMULATIONSIMULATION

WATER BALANCEWATER BALANCESIMULATIONSIMULATION

Rainfall dataRainfall data

CIRADCIRAD

Examples of PROMISE research

•Development of a hydrological model that can be integrated with regional climate models (GWAVA)

•Development of a crop model that can be integrated with seasonal forecast to produce yield estimates in Senegal (GCH4)

•Development of a large scale crop model that can be combined with GCMs to produce long term forecasts of yields that can be used for planning (HAPPY)

Combined weather/crop forecasting for

groundnut in India

Andy Challinor, Tim Wheeler and Julia SlingoUniversity of Reading

Farm - management - decisions

Genotype

Crop

Weather

Soil

GCMGCM

Timescale

Spatial scale

annual +

seasonal

monthly

daily

Country + district field

Crop modelsCrop

models

Timescale

Spatial scale

annual +

seasonal

monthly

daily

Country + district field

rainfall

groundnut

rainfall

groundnut

Timescale

Spatial scale

annual +

seasonal

monthly

daily

Country + district field

Large area model

Large area model

rainfall

groundnut

Huge Area Potential Peanut Yield (HAPPY!!) model

Pod yield Biomass

transpiration

efficiency

Leaf canopyDevelopment Transpiration

stage temperaturerainfall

Root system RH

Soil water

Calibrating and testing HAPPY

• Calibrate using field/district data. • Test in hindcast mode using ERA-

40 data to drive HAPPY.• Compare predicted crop yields

with observed crop yields.• Re-calibrate HAPPY?

General Circulation Model

Crop model

(HAPPY)

spatial

parameters

Crop model

uncertainties

output

processing

weather

forecast

crop

forecast

Lar

ge a

rea

mod

el

Pro

babi

list

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utpu

ts

International PROMISE conference

Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change

24th – 28th March 2003

ICTP in Trieste

currently sponsored by EU PROMISE, ICTP, WCRP,

START/CLIMAG

Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change

Conference topics

•The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on hydrology, agriculture and natural vegetation in monsoon-affected countries

•Seasonal predictability of monsoon climates and the management of water resources and agriculture

•Data provision for scientists from monsoon-affected countries using the PROMISE data archive as an example.

•Use of seasonal forecasts as an operational tool

•Applications of crop and hydrological model output to decision-making processes in developing countries

•Future of integrated climate/impacts modelling

Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change

Planned sessions

1. Seasonal predictability and natural variability of monsoon climates

2. Assessment of future monsoon climates in response to anthropogenic climate change

3. Sensitivity of monsoon variability to land-surface processes

4. Agricultural impacts of climate change

5. Hydrological impacts of climate change

6. Bringing together scientists and end users

Monsoon environments: Agricultural and hydrological impacts of seasonal variability and climate change

Participants

•PROMISE partners

•Representatives from aid agencies

•Climate scientists from developing countries

•Policy makers / people involved with long term planning

•European and American scientists working on PROMISE-related topics

Summary•PROMISE is an interdisciplinary project which aims to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on monsoon environments

•An international conference is planned for March 2003 which we hope will involve both researchers and end-users of research

•FAO’s involvement in PROMISE and particularly the conference would provide an exciting opportunity for collaboration

Further information

Find out more about PROMISE:

•web site: http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/promise

•brochure – a few copies here also download from the web site

•E-mail or phone me: emily@met.rdg.ac.uk +44 118 9316608

•attend the next annual PROMISE meeting in mid-May in Paris