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Projected labour market imbalances in Europe: Policy challenges in meeting the Europe 2020
employment targets
Pascaline Descy Head of Research and Policy Analysis
EU-OECD dialogue on international migration and moblity Brussels 24-25 February 2014
Motivation
• How feasible are EU 2020 employment targets?
• Has the EU enough workforce to meet these?
Europe has considerable activation needs even if it
reduces unemployment!
Cedefop’s skill supply and demand forecasts
Projections of skill supply and demand trends up to 2025
Comparable across countries using harmonised data
Inform skills and labour market policies by providing LMI/policy scenarios
Produced every 2 years (mandate from Council)
Demand Supply
33 countries (EU28 + NO, CH, IS, CCs)
41 NACE sectors 5 year age bands
21 ISCO occupations Gender
3 broad ISCED level 3 broad ISCED levels
Replacement needs
Conclusions • Workforce decline will require substantial activation
• But ceiling effect and dependence on skill needs
• Mobility and migration to be part of policy packages
• Other challenges – Labour shortages will result in greater mismatches – Increase labour productivity through HC investments
Thank you for your attention
more information and forecasting results
www.cedefop.europa.eu