Project ReportProject Report

Dr. Pataki BélaDr. Pataki Béla

M Ű E G Y E T E M 1 7 8 2

Budapest University of Technology and Economics

PProblemroblemShort and long term prediction of Short and long term prediction of customers’customers’ power consumption based power consumption based on their usage history.on their usage history.

„„Prediction is very difficult art, Prediction is very difficult art, especially when it involves the future.especially when it involves the future.””Niels Bohr Niels Bohr (Nobel Laureate Physicist)(Nobel Laureate Physicist)

A A konkrét konkrét problproblémaémaElektromos fogyasztás rövidtávú és Elektromos fogyasztás rövidtávú és hosszútávú előrejelzése közepes hosszútávú előrejelzése közepes fogyasztóknál (kisüzem stb).fogyasztóknál (kisüzem stb).Akár alulbecsül, akár felülbecsül – Akár alulbecsül, akár felülbecsül – veszteség keletkezik!veszteség keletkezik!Hogyan lehet a fogyasztók körében Hogyan lehet a fogyasztók körében csoportokat kialakítani? Tipikus csoportokat kialakítani? Tipikus fogyasztási minták keresése.fogyasztási minták keresése.

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Data Sheet

......Feature 1 Feature 2 Feature 3

1 0.5 450 .......

Feature N-1

x

Feature N

y

Predictor for

Group K

The prediction schemeThe prediction scheme

Selecting the consumer

clusterReliability analysis

Predictor for

Group 1

Predictor for

Group N

●●●

Mea

sure

d da

ta

●●●

ContractConditions

C2 conditions

Contract

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10.3Ft/kWh2004.08.01-2006.07.31.

C2

0.5

Cluster Feature MapCluster

Features Feat. 1 Feat. 2 Feat. 3 .......

C1 0.4 0.9 120

C2 1 450

C3 ... .... .... ....

C4 .... ..... .... ....

New Consumer:

ContractRenewal

Initial ClusterSelection

Contract Conditions

Initial Grouping of the ConsumersInitial Grouping of the Consumers

Type of businessType of business ( (e.g. schoole.g. school, , officeoffice, , factoryfactory etcetc.).)

Level of power consumptionLevel of power consumption Sensitivity to temperatureSensitivity to temperature Character of power orderCharacter of power order

Average Monthly Power Average Monthly Power Consumption of the Examined Consumption of the Examined

Group Group

Temperature CorrelationTemperature Correlation

Methods for clusteringMethods for clustering Multidimensional ScalingMultidimensional Scaling

(Principal Component Analysis)(Principal Component Analysis) Hierarchical ClusteringHierarchical Clustering Singular Singular VValue alue DDecompositionecomposition Independent Independent CComponent omponent AAnalysisnalysis

Extracting important features for each clusterExtracting important features for each cluster

Selecting the consumer

cluster

Consumer ClusteringConsumer Clustering Create groups for consumers having Create groups for consumers having

similar consumption characteristicssimilar consumption characteristics Similarity measureSimilarity measure normalization normalization &&

MSE (Mean Square Error)MSE (Mean Square Error) ClusteringClustering

Metric Multidimensional Scaling (classical Metric Multidimensional Scaling (classical MDS or Principal Component Analysis)MDS or Principal Component Analysis)

Hierarchical Clustering (Single, Complete, Hierarchical Clustering (Single, Complete, Centroid, Ward linkage, …)Centroid, Ward linkage, …)

Dissimilarity Matrix

Mean Square Error Between Mean Square Error Between ConsumersConsumers

Group 1

MDS MDS visualizationvisualization

Group 2

Hierarchical Clustering (Hierarchical Clustering (WardWard Linkage)Linkage)

Singular Value Decomposition of Singular Value Decomposition of Consumption RecordsConsumption Records

Methods for predictionMethods for prediction Adaptive Adaptive Linear modelsLinear models Neural networksNeural networks Nearest neighbour modelsNearest neighbour models Support Vector Machine (SVM)Support Vector Machine (SVM)

Predictor for

Cluster K

Adaptive Adaptive Linear Model Prediction Linear Model Prediction with Unusual Behavior Detectionwith Unusual Behavior Detection

Unusual behaviordetected

No weight modifications

due to unknown event

Nearest Neighbour Model PredictorNearest Neighbour Model Predictor

BestBest matchmatch PredictionPrediction