project home economic impact study final 2012-06-29

Upload: lauraweinbaum

Post on 02-Jun-2018

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    1/20

    ECONOMICANDFISCALIMPACTOF

    PROJECTH.O.M.E.WELLNESSCENTER

    FinalReportSubmittedTo:

    ProjectH.O.M.E.

    1515FairmountAvenue

    Philadelphia,PA19130

    Final

    Report

    Submitted

    By:

    EconsultCorporation

    1435WalnutStreetSuite300

    PhiladelphiaPA19102

    June29,

    2012

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    2/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageii

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    TABLEOFCONTENTS

    1.0 Introduction 1

    2.0 Methodology 2

    3.0 UpfrontConstruction 3

    4.0 OngoingOperations 6

    5.0 FiscalImpact 9

    6.0 RACPEconomicImpactMetrics 11

    AppendixAEconomicandFiscalImpactModelMethodology A1

    AppendixBEstimatedIndustryDistributionofEconomicImpactfromUpfront

    Construction

    A4

    AppendixCEstimatedIndustryDistributionofEconomicImpactfromOngoing

    Operations

    A6

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    3/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page1

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    1.0 INTRODUCTION

    ProjectH.O.M.E.proposestheconstructionoftheWellnessCenter,afederallyqualifiedHealth

    Center that will serve as a central location for the provision of community health services.

    Accordingto

    Project

    H.O.M.E.s

    2011

    2016

    Strategic

    Plan,

    the

    Wellness

    Center

    will

    assist

    in

    increasingaccesstoprimary,behavioral,andspecialtyhealthcareservicesandwillhelppeople

    who are experiencing homelessness, aswell as for ProjectH.O.M.E.s residents, alumni and

    children,andyouthandadultswholive,work,orgotoschoolinNorthCentralPhiladelphia.

    ProjectH.O.M.E.smission is toempoweradults, children,and families tobreak the cycleof

    homelessness and poverty, to alleviate the underlying causes of poverty, and to enable

    everyonetoattaintheirfullestpotentialasindividualsandasmembersofthebroadersociety.

    TheproposedWellnessCenterisanimportantcontributiontotheachievementofthismission

    andaparticularlyvitalpartofeliminatinghealthdisparities.

    Because of the important societal benefits that ProjectH.O.M.E provides, its economic and

    fiscal impacts are often overlooked. However, the proposed Wellness Center will be a

    significant sourceofeconomic stimulus,both from its initial constructionaswellas from its

    ongoingoperations.

    Thisreportisintendedtoidentifyandestimatetheeconomicandfiscalimpactsassociatedwith

    the Wellness Centers upfront construction and ongoing operations to both the City of

    Philadelphia and to theCommonwealthofPennsylvania. First,amethodologybywhich the

    spillovereffectsoftheprojectsanticipateddirectexpenditurescanbeestimated isdescribed

    (Section2). Then,economic impacts for theprojectsupfrontconstructionphase (Section3)

    andongoingoperationsphase(Section4)areestimatedanddiscussed. Finally,fiscal impacts

    resulting from these economic expansions are determined (Section 5). Because one of the

    functionsofthisreport istodescribeeconomic impactforthepurposesofapplyingforfunds

    from the Commonwealth through its RedevelopmentAssistanceCapital Program (RACP), an

    explanationofthepertinentmetricsassociatedwiththe projectisprovided(Section6).

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    4/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page2

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    2.0 METHODOLOGY1

    To determine the scale and composition of economic impact from theWellness Center, an

    economicimpactmodelwasconstructedthatutilizedmultiplierdatafromtheUSDepartment

    ofCommerces

    Regional

    Input

    Output

    Modeling

    Systems

    (RIMS

    II)

    to

    estimate

    the

    composition

    andscaleofexpenditures,employment,andearningsassociatedwiththeproject. Thismodel

    estimated two formsofadditionalspillover impacts resulting fromthedirectexpendituresof

    theproject:

    1. Indirectexpendituresaregeneratedaslocalvendorsincreaseproductioninresponseto

    the initial expenditures. New expenditures on inputs and services (e.g. equipment,

    materials,professionalservices)causesuppliersofthoseinputsandservicestorampup

    production, and to acquire additional inputs and services from their suppliers, who

    themselveswill do the same. The sum of these economic activities is known as the

    indirectexpenditures,

    and

    they

    support

    additional

    employment

    and

    earnings

    beyond

    theemploymentandearningssupportedbythedirectexpenditures.

    2. Inducedexpendituresaregeneratedasemployeesspendtheirearningswithinthelocal

    economy. New expenditures on people (i.e. salaries) provide those people with

    additionalspendingpower.Someofthatspendingpowerisexercisedwithintheregion,

    supporting local providers of various goods and services (e.g. food, entertainment,

    lodging,transportation).Thesumoftheseeconomicactivitiesisknownastheinduced

    expenditures,and theyalso supportadditionalemploymentandearningsbeyond the

    employmentandearningssupportedbythedirectexpenditures.

    Thesedirect, indirect, and induced expenditures support a certain scale and composition of

    employment and earnings, which can also be estimated using RIMS II multipliers. For the

    purposesofthisreport,theunitsofgeographyforwhichestimatesweremadeweretheCityof

    Philadelphia and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Fiscal impacts for the City and

    Commonwealthwerealsoderived,via theconstructionofa fiscal impactmodel thatutilized

    JourneytoWorkdataavailablethroughtheUSCensusBureautoapportionvariousamounts

    andkindsofeconomicactivityintovarioustaxbaseamountsfortheCityandCommonwealth,

    which were then multiplied through by the appropriate tax rates to arrive at tax revenues

    generatedtotheCityandCommonwealth.

    1SeeAppendixAforadditionaldetailonEconsultseconomicandfiscalimpactmethodology.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    5/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page3

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    3.0 UPFRONTCONSTRUCTION

    3.1 Overview

    Upfrontconstruction

    of

    the

    Wellness

    Center

    represents

    aone

    time

    economic

    stimulus

    for

    the

    CityandCommonwealth. Thesedirectexpendituresrepresentnetnewinfusionsofeconomic

    activity intotheCityandCommonwealth,sincetheywouldnothavetakenplacewithoutthe

    project. The economic impact model described in Section 2 is used to translate direct

    expendituresassociatedwithupfrontconstructionoftheprojectintoanestimatedamountand

    compositionofonetimeeconomicimpact(inexpenditures,employment,andearnings)atthe

    CityandCommonwealthlevel.

    3.2

    DirectExpenditures

    from

    Upfront

    Construction

    BasedonprojectionsprovidedbyProjectH.O.M.E.,theproposedWellnessCenterisestimated

    tohaveanupfrontconstructioncostofabout$11.0million. Tobeconservative,expenditure

    categories suchas landacquisition, financingcosts,andprojectcontingencieswereexcluded

    frominputoutputmodelingworkbecausetheydonotalwaysrepresentthepurchaseoflocal

    goods and services. The $2.3 million of land acquisition, financing costs, and project

    contingencieswas therefore removed, leaving amodelableupfront project cost estimate of

    about$8.6millioninconstructioncostsandprofessionalservices(seeTable3.1).

    Table3.1DirectExpendituresAssociatedwithUpfrontConstruction(in2012$M)2

    Category Actual Amount Modelable Amount

    Hard Costs $7.7 $7.7

    Soft Costs $1.0 $1.0

    Land Acquisition $1.2 $0.0

    Financing Costs $0.6 $0.0

    Project Contingencies $0.5 $0.0

    Direct Expenditures3 $11.0 $8.6

    Source:ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    2Throughoutthereport,dollarsareexpressedin2012terms.

    3Throughoutthereport,totalsmaynotsumexactlyduetorounding.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    6/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page4

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    3.3 EconomicImpactfromUpfrontConstruction

    The$8.6millionofdirectexpendituresassociatedwiththeupfrontconstructionoftheproject

    isestimatedtogenerateaconsiderableamountofonetimeeconomic impactwithintheCity

    andthe

    Commonwealth

    (see

    Table

    3.2).

    Within

    the

    City,

    upfront

    construction

    is

    estimated

    to

    generateabout$13millionintotalexpenditures,supportingabout54jobsandabout$2million

    inearningsduringtheconstructionperiod. WithintheCommonwealth,upfrontconstructionis

    estimatedtogenerateabout$21million intotalexpenditures,supportingabout180jobsand

    about$7millioninearningsduringtheconstructionperiod.4

    Table3.2EstimatedOneTimeEconomicImpactofUpfrontConstruction

    City Commonwealth

    Direct Expenditures ($M) $8.6 $8.6

    Indirect and InducedExpenditures ($M)

    $4.2 $12.3

    Total Expenditu res ($M) $12.8 $20.9

    Total Employment 54 180

    Total Earnings ($M) $2.1 $6.8

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    3.4 IndustryDistributionofEconomicImpactfromUpfrontConstruction

    Theconstruction industrywillgainthemostfromtheupfrontconstructionoftheproject,but

    manyother industrieswill alsobepositively impacted (see Table3.3). Within theCity, it is

    preliminarily estimated that 40 percent of the expenditure impact and 42 percent of the

    employmentimpactwillbeinindustriesbesidesconstruction. WithintheCommonwealth,itis

    preliminarily estimated that 63 percent of the expenditure impact and 60 percent of the

    employmentimpactwillbeinindustriesbesidesconstruction.5

    4Commonwealth impactsare larger thanCity impacts,even thoughdirectexpendituresare thesame,because

    spillover impactscontinue toemanatebeyond theCitysboundariestoareasoutside theCity. SincetheCity is

    completely containedwithin the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth figures include the City figures, and the

    differencebetweenthetworepresentsthe impactthat isestimatedtotakeplace insidetheCommonwealthbut

    outsidetheCity.

    5 See Appendix B for additional detail on the industry composition of the economic impact from upfront

    construction.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    7/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page5

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    Table3.3EstimatedIndustryDistributionofOneTimeEconomicImpactfromUpfront

    Construction

    Expenditure Impact within the City %Expenditure Impact within theCommonwealth %

    Construction 59.9% Construction 36.9%

    Professional, scientific, and technicalservices 12.9% Manufacturing 13.6%

    Manufacturing 4.4%Professional, scientific, and technicalservices 10.0%

    Real estate and rental and leasing 4.2% Real estate and rental and leasing 6.1%

    Finance and insurance 3.3% Retail trade 5.3%

    All other industries 15.2% All other industries 28.1%

    Employment Impact within the City %Employment Impact within theCommonwealth

    %

    Construction 58.3% Construction 40.1%

    Professional, scientific, and technicalservices 11.1%

    Retail trade 10.1%

    Retail trade 5.9%Professional, scientific, and technicalservices

    8.8%

    Accommodation and food services 3.8% Manufacturing 7.3%

    Health care and social assistance 3.8% Health care and social assistance 7.2%

    All other industries 17.2% All other industries 26.4%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    8/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page6

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    4.0 ONGOINGOPERATIONS

    4.1 Overview

    Ongoingoperations

    of

    the

    Wellness

    Center

    represent

    an

    annual

    economic

    stimulus

    for

    the

    City

    andCommonwealth. Thesedirectexpendituresrepresentnetneweconomicactivity intothe

    City and Commonwealth, since theywould not have taken place without the project. The

    economic impact model described in Section 2 is used to translate direct expenditures

    associatedwithongoingoperationsoftheproject intoanestimatedamountandcomposition

    of annual economic impact (expenditures, employment, and earnings) at the City and

    Commonwealthlevel.

    4.2

    DirectExpenditures

    from

    Ongoing

    Operations

    BasedinpartonproformastatementsprovidedbyProjectH.O.M.E.,6theprojectisestimated

    to generate about $5.3 million in annual operating expenditures at steady state (see Table

    4.1).7 Muchoftheseexpendituresareassociatedwiththeprovisionofvarioushealthservices,

    withtheremainderassociatedwithsupportiveservices,supplies,andoverhead.

    Table4.1DirectExpendituresAssociatedwithOngoingOperations(in$M)

    Annual Operat ing Budget Amount

    Health Care $3.1

    Administration $2.0

    Utilities $0.1

    Maintenance $0.1

    Total Expenditures $5.3

    Source:ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    6Mostof theanticipatedoperatingexpendituresassociatedwith theprojectareknownat this time. Financial

    projections for twoof the projects service lines arenot known at this time,but square footage amounts are

    known,andsolowendestimatesofindustryaveragesofannualoperatingexpendituresonapersquarefootbasis

    fortheseuseswereusedtoarriveataconservativefigureforthoseoperatingexpenditures.

    7 Theproject isprojected toarrive ata steadystate levelby Year5,atwhichpoint itwillbeoperatingat full

    capacity.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    9/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page7

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    4.3 EconomicImpactfromOngoingOperations

    Thisamountofdirectexpenditures isestimatedtogenerateaconsiderableamountofannual

    economic impact within the City and the Commonwealth (see Table 4.2). Within the City,

    ongoingoperations

    are

    estimated

    to

    generate

    about

    $8.8

    million

    in

    total

    expenditures,

    supporting about 60 jobs and about $2.2 million in earnings each year. Within the

    Commonwealth, ongoing operations are estimated to generate about $12.3million in total

    expenditures,supportingabout135jobsandabout$4.1millioninearningseachyear.8

    Table4.2EstimatedAnnualEconomicImpactofOngoingOperations

    City Commonwealth

    Direct Expenditures ($M) $5.3 $5.3

    Indirect and InducedExpenditures ($M)

    $3.5 $7.1

    Total Expenditu res ($M) $8.8 $12.3

    Total Employment 59 135

    Total Earnings ($M) $2.2 $4.1

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    4.4 IndustryDistributionofEconomicImpactfromOngoingOperations

    Thehealthcareandsocialassistanceindustrywillgainthemostfromtheongoingoperationsof

    theproject,butmanyotherindustrieswillalsobepositivelyimpacted(seeTable4.3). Within

    the City, it is estimated that 62 percent of the expenditure impact and 59 percent of the

    employmentimpactwillbeinindustriesbesideshealthcareandsocialassistance. Withinthe

    Commonwealth, it isestimated that70percentof theexpenditure impactand64percentof

    theemploymentimpactwillbeinindustriesbesideshealthcareandsocialassistance.9

    8Commonwealth impactsare larger thanCity impacts,even thoughdirectexpendituresare thesame,because

    spillover impactscontinue toemanatebeyond theCitysboundariestoareasoutside theCity. SincetheCity is

    completely containedwithin the Commonwealth, the Commonwealth figures include the City figures, and the

    differencebetweenthetworepresentsthe impactthat isestimatedtotakeplace insidetheCommonwealthbut

    outsidetheCity.

    9 See Appendix B for additional detail on the industry composition of the economic impact from ongoing

    operations.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    10/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page8

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    Table4.3EstimatedIndustryDistributionofAnnualEconomicImpactfromOngoing

    Operations

    Expenditure Impact within the City %Expenditure Impact within theCommonwealth %

    Health care and social assistance 38.4% Health care and social assistance 30.4%

    Administrative and waste managementservices 26.5%

    Administrative and waste managementservices 20.0%

    Real estate and rental and leasing 7.2% Manufacturing 9.0%

    Professional, scientific, and technicalservices 4.3% Real estate and rental and leasing 7.6%

    Finance and insurance 4.2% Finance and insurance 5.1%

    All other industries 19.4% All other industries 29.7%

    Employment Impact within the City %Employment Impact within theCommonwealth

    %

    Health care and social assistance 40.8% Health care and social assistance 36.2%

    Administrative and waste managementservices 38.6%

    Administrative and waste managementservices 30.0%

    Accommodation and food services 4.2% Retail trade 6.1%

    Professional, scientific, and technicalservices 2.4% Accommodation and food services 4.4%

    Transportation and warehousing 2.2% Manufacturing 3.2%

    All other industries 11.9% All other industries 20.1%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    11/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page9

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    5.0 FISCALIMPACT

    5.1 Overview

    Theupfront

    construction

    and

    ongoing

    operations

    associated

    with

    Project

    H.O.M.E.s

    Wellness

    CenterhastheeffectofexpandingvariousCityandCommonwealthtaxbases,thusgenerating

    additionaltaxrevenuesfortheCityandCommonwealth. Thefiscalimpactmodeldescribedin

    Section2isusedtoestimatetheseamounts.

    5.2 FiscalImpactfromUpfrontConstruction

    Thetemporaryexpansionineconomicactivitythroughtheupfrontconstructionoftheproject

    andthrough

    the

    indirect

    and

    induced

    expenditures

    that

    result

    from

    those

    direct

    expenditures

    willalsoexpandvariousCityandCommonwealthtaxbases(seeTable5.1). Itisestimatedthat

    theCitywill gain about $125,000 and theCommonwealthwill gain about $461,000 in tax

    revenuesduringtheconstructionperiodasaresult.

    Table5.1EstimatedOneTimeFiscalImpactfromProject(UpfrontConstruction)(In$000)

    City of PhiladelphiaCommonwealth ofPennsylvania

    Wage and Earnings $76 Personal Income $207

    Sales $8 Sales and Use $201

    Business Privilege $41 Corporate Net Income $53

    Total City TaxRevenues

    $125Total CommonwealthTax Revenues

    $461

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    5.3

    FiscalImpact

    from

    Ongoing

    Operations

    Theongoingexpansion ineconomicactivitythroughtheongoingoperationsofthe project

    andthroughtheindirectandinducedexpendituresthatresultfromthosedirectexpenditures

    willalsoexpandvariousCityandCommonwealthtaxbases(seeTable5.2). Itisestimatedthat

    the Citywill gain about $90,000 and the Commonwealthwill gain about $300,000 in tax

    revenueseachyearasaresult.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    12/20

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    13/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter page11

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    6.0 RACPECONOMICIMPACTMETRICS

    ThetablebelowprovidesthenecessaryeconomicimpactmetricsforthepurposesoftheRACP

    application. Italsoreferencesthetableortablesfromwhichthosefiguresarederived.

    Pro formastatements forYear1werenotavailable. It isestimatedbyProjectH.O.M.E.that

    ongoingoperationsinYear1willberoughly80percentofthesteadystatelevelsestimatedin

    existingproformastatements. Therefore,itisassumedthatYear1impactswillbe80percent

    ofYear5impacts.

    Table6.1RACPEconomicImpactMetrics

    Question Column A (Priorto Project)

    Column B (1-Year)

    Column C (5-Year)

    Table Reference

    A-1(a) 46 57 4.2

    A-1(b)

    A-2(a)

    A-2(b)

    B(a)

    B(b)

    C 62 77 4.2

    D 74 3.2

    E $30,400 $30,400 4.2

    F $30,400 $30,400 4.2

    G $37,400 3.2

    H No

    I $4.2 million $5.3 million 4.2

    J $5.7 million $7.1 million 4.2K $243,000 $304,000 5.2

    Source:EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    14/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA1

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    APPENDIXAECONOMICANDFISCALIMPACTMODELMETHODOLOGY

    A.1 EconomicImpactModel

    Themethodology

    and

    input

    output

    model

    used

    in

    this

    economic

    impact

    analysis

    are

    considered

    standard forestimatingsuchexpenditure impacts,and the resultsare typically recognizedas

    reasonableandplausibleeffectsbasedon theassumptions (includingdata)used togenerate

    the impacts. Ingeneral,anyeconomicactivitycanbedescribed in termsof the totaloutput

    generated fromeverydollarofdirectexpenditures. Ifan industry inagiven region sells$1

    millionofitsgoods,thereisadirectinfusionof$1millionintotheregion. Thesearereferredto

    asdirectexpenditures.

    However,theeconomicimpactontheregiondoesnotstopwiththatinitialdirectexpenditure.

    Regionalsupplierstothat industryhavealsobeencalleduponto increasetheirproductionto

    meetthe

    needs

    of

    the

    industry

    to

    produce

    the

    $1

    million

    in

    goods

    sold.

    Further,

    suppliers

    of

    these same suppliersmust also increase production tomeet their increased needs aswell.

    These are referred to as indirect expenditures. In addition, these direct and indirect

    expenditures requireworkers,and theseworkersmustbepaid for their labor. Thesewages

    andsalarieswill,inturn,bespentinpartongoodsandservicesproducedlocally,engendering

    anotherroundofimpacts. Thesearereferredtoasinducedexpenditures.

    DirectexpendituresarefedintoamodelconstructedbyEconsultCorporationandbasedondata

    providedbytheUSDepartmentofCommercesBureauofEconomicAnalysisthroughitsRegional

    InputOutputModeling System (RIMS II). Themodel then produces a calculation of the total

    expenditure effect on the regional economy. This total effect includes the initial direct

    expenditureeffect,

    as

    well

    as

    the

    ripple

    effects

    described,

    the

    indirect

    and

    induced

    expenditure

    effects.

    Partof the totalexpenditureeffect is actually the increase in totalwagesand salaries (usually

    referredtoasearnings),whichthemodelcanseparate fromtheexpenditureestimates. Direct

    payrollestimatesarefedintothehouseholdindustryoftheinputoutputmodel. Impactsofthis

    industryareestimatedusing thepersonalconsumptionexpenditurebreakdownof thenational

    inputoutputtableandareadjustedtoaccountforregionalconsumptionspendingand leakages

    from personal taxes and savings. The direct, indirect, and induced earnings represent a

    componentof the totaleconomic impactattributable towagesand salaries.Finally, themodel

    calculatesthe

    total

    expenditures

    affecting

    the

    various

    industries

    and

    translates

    this

    estimate

    into

    anestimateofthetotallabor(orjobs)requiredtoproducethisoutput.10

    10 Inthe inputoutputmodel,theestimateof increasedemploymentwillalwaysbe intermsoftheemployment

    required for a given level of production, usually referred to aspersonyears of employment. As such, these

    estimatescannotbeinterpretedasspecifyingpermanentjobs.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    15/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA2

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    Inshort,the inputoutputmodelestimatesthetotaleconomicactivity inaregionthatcanbe

    attributed to thedirectdemand for thegoodsor servicesofvarious industries. This typeof

    approach is used to estimate the total economic activity attributable to the expenditures

    associatedwithvarioustypesofspendingintheregion.

    A.2 FiscalImpactModel

    TheRIMSIImodelprovidesestimatesoftheeconomicimpactofanewprojectorprogramon

    the regional economy. It does not, however, estimate the fiscal impact of the increased

    economicactivityonstateandlocalgovernments.Econsulthasconstructedamodelthattakes

    theoutputfromtheRIMS IImodelandgeneratesdetailedestimatesofthe increases instate

    and localtaxcollectionsthatarisefromthenewproject.Thoserevenuesare infactapartof

    thetotal

    economic

    impact

    of

    anew

    project

    that

    is

    often

    ignored

    in

    conventional

    economic

    impactanalyses.

    TheRIMS IImodelprovidesestimatesofdirect, indirect,and inducedexpenditures,earnings,

    and employmentwithin the defined region. The Econsult fiscal impactmodel combines the

    RIMSIIoutputwithU.S.CensusBureauCountyBusinessPatternsdatatoproduceestimatesof

    thedistributionofadditionalemploymentandearningsbycounty.Inaddition,the2000Census

    Journey to Work data on commuting flows are utilized to estimate income earned by

    residentsofeachcountywithintheregion,regardlessofwheretheywork.Thefiscalmodelcan

    then estimate the increase in earned income taxes by county and for the state as awhole

    resulting from the new project. For complex cases, like Philadelphia, the model can

    differentiatebetween

    residents

    and

    nonresidents

    and

    apply

    the

    proper

    wage

    tax

    rate.

    Pennsylvania state business and sales taxes, as well as business taxes in Philadelphia, are

    estimatedbasedon themost recentdataonaverage sales taxbaseperemployeebymajor

    industry,ascontainedinpublicationsfromthePennsylvaniaDepartmentofRevenue.

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    16/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA3

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    FigureA.1GlossaryofTermsforInputOutputModels

    Multiplier Effect the notion that initial outlays have a ripple effect on a local economy, to

    the extent that direct expenditures lead to indirect and induced expenditures.

    Economic Impacts total expenditures, employment, and earnings generated.

    Fiscal Impacts local and/or state tax revenues generated.

    Direct Expenditures initial outlays usually associated with the project or activity beingmodeled; examples: one-time upfront construction and related expenditures associatedwith a new or renovated facility, annual expenditures associated with ongoing facilitymaintenance and/or operating activity.

    Direct Employment the full time equivalent jobs associated with the direct expenditures.Direct Earnings the salaries and wages earned by employees and contractors as part ofthe direct expenditures.

    Indirect Expenditures indirect and induced outlays resulting from the directexpenditures; examples: vendors increasing production to meet new demand associatedwith the direct expenditures, workers spending direct earnings on various purchases withinthe local economy.

    Indirect Employment the full time equivalent jobs associated with the indirectexpenditures.

    Indirect Earnings the salaries and wages earned by employees and contractors as partof the indirect expenditures.

    Total Expenditures the sum total of direct expenditures and indirect expenditures.

    Total Employment the sum total of direct employment and indirect employment.

    Total Earnings the sum total of direct earnings and indirect earnings.

    Source:EconsultCorporation(2009)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    17/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA4

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    APPENDIXBESTIMATEDINDUSTRYDISTRIBUTIONOFECONOMICIMPACT

    FROMUPFRONTCONSTRUCTION

    TableB.1EstimatedExpenditureDistributionofEconomicImpactwithintheCityfrom

    UpfrontConstruction

    Rank IndustryExpenditures

    ($M) %

    1 Construction $7.7 59.9%

    2 Professional, scientific, and technical services $1.7 12.9%

    3 Manufacturing $0.6 4.4%

    4 Real estate and rental and leasing $0.5 4.2%

    5 Finance and insurance $0.4 3.3%

    All other industries $1.9 15.2%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    TableB.2EstimatedEmploymentDistributionofEconomicImpactwithintheCityfrom

    UpfrontConstruction

    Rank Industry Employment %

    1 Construction 31.7 58.3%

    2 Professional, scientific, and technical services 6.0 11.1%

    3 Retail trade 3.2 5.9%

    4 Accommodation and food services 2.1 3.8%

    5 Health care and social assistance 2.1 3.8%

    All other industries 9.3 17.2%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    18/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA5

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    TableB.3EstimatedExpenditureDistributionofEconomicImpactwithinthe

    CommonwealthfromUpfrontConstruction

    Rank IndustryExpenditures

    ($M) %

    1 Construction $7.7 36.9%

    2 Manufacturing $2.8 13.6%

    3 Professional, scientific, and technical services $2.1 10.0%

    4 Real estate and rental and leasing $1.3 6.1%

    5 Retail trade $1.1 5.3%

    All other industries $5.9 28.1%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    TableB.4EstimatedEmploymentDistributionofEconomicImpactwithinthe

    CommonwealthfromUpfrontConstruction

    Rank Industry Employment %

    1 Construction 72.4 40.1%

    2 Retail trade 18.3 10.1%

    3 Professional, scientific, and technical services 15.8 8.8%

    4 Manufacturing 13.2 7.3%

    5 Health care and social assistance 13.0 7.2%

    All other industries 47.6 26.4%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    19/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA6

    ECONSULTCORPORATION June29,2012

    APPENDIXCESTIMATEDINDUSTRYDISTRIBUTIONOFECONOMICIMPACT

    FROMONGOINGOPERATIONS

    TableC.1EstimatedExpenditureDistributionofEconomicImpactwithintheCityfrom

    OngoingOperations

    Rank IndustryExpenditures

    ($M) %

    1 Health care and social assistance $3.4 38.4%

    2 Administrative and waste management services $2.3 26.5%

    3 Real estate and rental and leasing $0.6 7.2%

    4 Professional, scientific, and technical services $0.4 4.3%

    5 Finance and insurance $0.4 4.2%

    All other industries $1.7 19.4%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    TableC.2EstimatedEmploymentDistributionofEconomicImpactwithintheCityfrom

    OngoingOperations

    Rank Industry Employment %

    1 Health care and social assistance 24.0 40.8%

    2 Administrative and waste management services 22.7 38.6%

    3 Accommodation and food services 2.5 4.2%

    4 Professional, scientific, and technical services 1.4 2.4%

    5 Transportation and warehousing 1.3 2.2%

    All other industries 7.0 11.9%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

  • 8/11/2019 Project HOME Economic Impact Study FINAL 2012-06-29

    20/20

    EconomicandFiscalImpactofProjectH.O.M.E.WellnessCenter pageA7

    ECONSULT CORPORATION J 29 2012

    TableC.3EstimatedExpenditureDistributionofEconomicImpactwithinthe

    CommonwealthfromOngoingOperations

    Rank IndustryExpenditures

    ($M) %

    1 Health care and social assistance $3.7 30.4%

    2 Administrative and waste management services $2.5 20.0%

    3 Manufacturing $1.1 9.0%

    4 Real estate and rental and leasing $0.9 7.6%

    5 Finance and insurance $0.6 5.1%

    All other industries $3.4 27.9%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)

    TableC.4EstimatedEmploymentDistributionofEconomicImpactwithinthe

    CommonwealthfromOngoingOperations

    Rank Industry Employment %

    1 Health care and social assistance 48.7 36.2%

    2 Administrative and waste management services 40.4 30.0%

    3 Retail trade 8.1 6.1%

    4 Accommodation and food services 5.9 4.4%

    5 Manufacturing 4.3 3.2%

    All other industries 27.0 20.1%

    Source:USDepartmentofCommerce(2009),ProjectH.O.M.E.(2012),EconsultCorporation(2012)