Project Design

Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Risks

Narrative IndicatorsMeans of

VerificationPreconditions /

assumptions / risks

General goals- impacts, effects,- Outcomes

Project Objective….

Outputs…

Activities………Including monitoring plan

Inputs

LF Matrix: Assumptions

The important events, pre-conditions, or decisions necessary for the achievement of the goals, objectives, outputs or activities.

Link to statement of risks, for risk management.

Assumptions

Factors important for fulfilment of goals or objectives, but outside the project’s scope

A project does not exist in a social, economic and political vacuum.

For its success it is dependent on norms, laws, ordinances, policies, political will and commitment, allocation of funds, and perhaps many other things.

If you started with a Problem Tree

• Return to the problem tree• Identify all the “other” contributing root

causes of the problem being addressed;• How much of the achievement of the

objective or goal depends on addressing these other problems? = a clue on assumptions.

Problem Tree / Cause + Effect

High Unemployment

Poor matching service

Companies don’t use employment

service

Job-seekers do not know of service

Companies have poor

HR divisions

Wrong skill set

Ed. System not employment-

oriented

Education not available to all They don’t

know about itNo training in HR

or recruitment

Poor database

Low family incomes

Companies have wrong staff for jobs

Lower productivity, job dissatisfaction,

Low standards of living

High social discontent

Social unrest

Damage to property

Investors don’t invest

Cannot pay school fees

Poor info distribution

Few jobs available

If you started with a Vision

• Identify other preconditions, constraints and hindrances;

• Do any of these constitute assumptions?

Risk

• Refers to the probability and effect on the project of an assumption failing to be true.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management

• Analysis of the risks affecting the project’s objectives and plans to avoid these risks.

• The persons / the project group that are responsible for the project must identify, analyse and assess different factors, which, in different ways, affect the possibilities available to the project to achieve its objectives.

 

Probability of failure

Impa

ct

Low Risk =Low probabilityX Low impact

High Risk =High probabilityX High impact

Low probability,High impact risk

High probabilityLow impact risk

External factors / risks:

These are risks that exist outside the framework of the project (for example political developments, natural disasters, corruption etc.)

• It is most often the case that the project group cannot exert an influence on these risks.

Internal factors / risks

• These are risks of the type that are possible for the project to exercise control over.

• They can be practical matters such as delays in deliveries, personnel turnover etc.

• In most cases project management can minimise the effects of these internal risks.

An alternative look…Narrative level Assumptions Risks Mitigation

Goal: …

Outcome…Job seekers find jobs faster, employers get the rights staff quickly

The right job seekers exist; firms describe vacancies well, …

1. Education system does not provide enough of the right skills; 2. the jobs don’t exist; 3. firms give poor information.

Continuously work with Priv. Sector to forecast skills needs, & with MoE to ensure the needs are met.… … ….

Objective:…A system in place to connect job seekers with job vacancies

Businesses will be willing to post vacancies here.

Businesses find that alternatives to finding employees are more effective & turn elsewhere

Work with businesses from the start; focus on job types where we can deliver, & companies need help.

Output 1:…Computerised match-ing system installed & functioning.

We can find a firm able to design & install the system

Quality of system is not good enough, too expensive, or not robust enough

Exercise great care in specifications, & in contract conditions to ensure success.

Output 2: …

Is the assumption important?

Mention it, include it as something to watch, prepare

for mitigation actions

Is it possible to redesign the activity or project to reduce

the importance of this factor?, Very Unlikely

Don’t bring it upWill it hold true?

Possibly

Almost certainly

Yes No

Redesign the project to reduce influence of this

external factor.

The project may not be feasible.

Yes No

Risk decision tree

For Today

• Check the assumptions, pre-conditions and risks associated with your project:– Internal: what are you going to do about

them?– External: how serious are they? Use the

decision tree(s) to determine whether or not you must redesign your project, or just have contingency plans ready.