project cost management
TRANSCRIPT
Project Cost ManagementProject Cost Management
PMBOK Chapter 7PMBOK Chapter 7
PROCESS GROUPSPROCESS GROUPS
Cost Estimating
Cost Budgeting
Cost Control
I
Planning
E
Controlling
C
Cost EstimatingCost Estimating
Cost estimating and Pricing:Cost estimating and Pricing: Cost estimating: how much will it cost the performing Cost estimating: how much will it cost the performing
organization to provide the product or service organization to provide the product or service involved?involved?
Pricing: how much will the performing organization Pricing: how much will the performing organization charge for the product or service? charge for the product or service? Business decisionBusiness decision..
Estimating should be done by the person doing Estimating should be done by the person doing the work.the work.
Cost EstimatingCost Estimating
Based on the WBS to increase the accuracy.Based on the WBS to increase the accuracy. Project managers should analyze the needs of Project managers should analyze the needs of
the project, to compare and reconcile any the project, to compare and reconcile any differences with cost requirements from differences with cost requirements from management.management.
1. WBS2. Resource
requirements3. Resource rates.4. Act. duration est.5. Historical info.6. Chart of accounts7. Risks
1. Analogous est.2. Parametric
modeling3. Bottom-up est.
1. Cost estimates2. Cost
management plan
Inputs Tools Outputs
Cost EstimatingCost Estimating Cost estimates for all resources that will be Cost estimates for all resources that will be
charged to the project.charged to the project. Generally expressed in units of currency to facilitate Generally expressed in units of currency to facilitate
comparisons both within and across projects.comparisons both within and across projects. Generally includes appropriate risk response planning.Generally includes appropriate risk response planning.
Supporting detail must include:Supporting detail must include: Reference to WBS.Reference to WBS. How it was developed?How it was developed? Assumptions made.Assumptions made. Range of possible results.Range of possible results.
Cost management plan how cost variances will Cost management plan how cost variances will be managed.be managed.
Cost BudgetingCost Budgeting
Allocate the overall cost estimates to individual Allocate the overall cost estimates to individual activities or work packages to establish a cost activities or work packages to establish a cost baseline for measuring project performance.baseline for measuring project performance.
1. Cost estimates2. WBS3. Project schedule4. Cost
management plan
1. Cost budgeting tools and techniques
1. Cost baseline
Inputs Tools Outputs
Cost BudgetingCost Budgeting
The cost baseline will be used to measure and The cost baseline will be used to measure and monitor cost performance of the project.monitor cost performance of the project.
Expected Cash Flow
Cost Baseline
Cumulative Values
Time
Estimates vs. AccuracyEstimates vs. Accuracy
Most difficult to estimate as very Most difficult to estimate as very little project info is availablelittle project info is available
EstimateEstimate AccuracyAccuracy
Order of Order of Magnitude Magnitude (Early)(Early)
-25%-25%
+75%+75%
Budget Budget EstimateEstimate
-10%-10%
+25+25
Definitive Definitive EstimateEstimate
-5%-5%
10%10%
Used to finalize the Request for Used to finalize the Request for Authorization (RFA), and establish Authorization (RFA), and establish commitmentcommitment
Development stage estimate. Development stage estimate. Needed to predict revised project Needed to predict revised project completion datecompletion date
Tools for Estimating (and Tools for Estimating (and Budgeting)Budgeting)
Top Down Top Down EstimatingEstimating
Accuracy depends on experienceAccuracy depends on experienceFast, but estimates are roughFast, but estimates are rough
Bottom Up Bottom Up EstimatingEstimating
Slow, but reliableSlow, but reliableHigh cost (time) / WBS neededHigh cost (time) / WBS neededBuy-in from the teamBuy-in from the team
Parametric Parametric ModelingModeling
Mathematical models to predict costsMathematical models to predict costsTwo types: REGRESSION ANALYSIS, Two types: REGRESSION ANALYSIS,
and LEARNING CURVEand LEARNING CURVE
Delphi Delphi Method Method (analogous)(analogous)
Expert judgmentExpert judgmentTasks need not to be identifiedTasks need not to be identifiedConsiderable experience neededConsiderable experience needed
Cost ControlCost Control
Monitor Cost PerformanceMonitor Cost Performance Detect and understand variances from Detect and understand variances from
plan plan Ensure all changes are recorded and Ensure all changes are recorded and
agreed uponagreed upon Prevent bogus changes from being Prevent bogus changes from being
included in cost baselineincluded in cost baseline Inform stakeholders of authorized changesInform stakeholders of authorized changes Bring costs within acceptable limitsBring costs within acceptable limits
Cost Control Cost Control
Understand what is driving variances, good and Understand what is driving variances, good and bad, and decide what action to take.bad, and decide what action to take.
1. Cost Baseline2. Performance
Reports3. Change Requests4. Cost
Management Plan
1. Cost Change Control System
2. Performance Measurement
3. Earned Value Management
4. Additional Planning
5. Computerized Tools
1. Revised Cost Estimates
2. Budget Updates3. Corrective Action4. Estimate at
Completion5. Project Closeout6. Lessons learned
Inputs Tools Outputs
Cost ControlCost Control
Work completion methods:Work completion methods:• 0/100 0/100 Conservative approach. No work, no Conservative approach. No work, no
money.money.• 20/80 20/80 20% at start of the project, the rest when 20% at start of the project, the rest when
it is completed.it is completed.• 50/50 50/50 Liberal approach. Liberal approach.
Cost Control: Earned Value Cost Control: Earned Value ManagementManagement
Earned Value:
Integrates cost, time and scope. Used to forecast future performance and project completion dates
Key concepts:Key concepts:EV = Earned Value (BCWP)EV = Earned Value (BCWP)
Estimated value of the work actually accomplishedEstimated value of the work actually accomplished
PV = Planned Value (BCWS)PV = Planned Value (BCWS)Estimated value of the work planned to be doneEstimated value of the work planned to be done
AC = Actual Cost (ACWP)AC = Actual Cost (ACWP)Actual cost incurred for the work accomplishedActual cost incurred for the work accomplished
Earned Value ManagementEarned Value Management
BAC = Budget At Completion BAC = Budget At Completion Estimated total cost of the project when doneEstimated total cost of the project when done
EAC = Estimate At Completion EAC = Estimate At Completion Forecast of most likely total project cost based on Forecast of most likely total project cost based on
projectproject performance and risk quantificationperformance and risk quantification
CPI = Cost Performance Index CPI = Cost Performance Index Ratio of budgeted costs to actual costRatio of budgeted costs to actual cost
SPI = Scheduled Performance Index SPI = Scheduled Performance Index Estimated total cost of the project when doneEstimated total cost of the project when done
Earned Value Management Earned Value Management Key Formulas:Key Formulas:
CV = Cost Variance = EV- ACCV = Cost Variance = EV- ACNegativeNegative is over budget, Positive is under budget is over budget, Positive is under budget
SV = Schedule Variance = EV- PVSV = Schedule Variance = EV- PVNegativeNegative is behind schedule, Positive is ahead schedule is behind schedule, Positive is ahead schedule
CPI = Cost Performance Index = EV / ACCPI = Cost Performance Index = EV / AC SPI = Schedule Performance Index = EV / PVSPI = Schedule Performance Index = EV / PV EAC = Estimate At Completion =EAC = Estimate At Completion =
BAC / CPI BAC / CPI Most often used formula Most often used formula AC + ETCAC + ETC AC + BAC - EVAC + BAC - EV AC + (BAC - EV) / CPIAC + (BAC - EV) / CPI
EAC = Estimate At Completion = EAC - ACEAC = Estimate At Completion = EAC - AC VAC = Variance At Completion = BAC - EACVAC = Variance At Completion = BAC - EAC
Big DigBig Dig
Started construction on 1991 and planned Started construction on 1991 and planned completion by 1997 (6 years), it was to cost $3 completion by 1997 (6 years), it was to cost $3 Billion, the project included 6 highways ($0.5 Billion, the project included 6 highways ($0.5 Billion per highway/year)Billion per highway/year)
At the end of the first year, 1/2 highway was At the end of the first year, 1/2 highway was completed and the cost was $2 Billion.completed and the cost was $2 Billion.
Do the EV analysisDo the EV analysis
Big Dig: The NumbersBig Dig: The Numbers
EV = Earned Value = $0.25 Billion EV = Earned Value = $0.25 Billion $0.5/2$0.5/2
PV = Planned Value = $0.5 BillionPV = Planned Value = $0.5 Billion
AC = Actual Cost = $2 BillionAC = Actual Cost = $2 Billion
BAC = Budget At Completion = $3 BillionBAC = Budget At Completion = $3 Billion
Big Dig: Performance Big Dig: Performance
CV = EV - AC = $0.25 - $2 = - $1.75 BillionCV = EV - AC = $0.25 - $2 = - $1.75 BillionOver Budget by $1.75 BillionOver Budget by $1.75 Billion
SV = EV - PV = $0.25 - $0.5 = - $0.25 BillionSV = EV - PV = $0.25 - $0.5 = - $0.25 BillionBehind of scheduleBehind of schedule
CPI = EV / AC = $0.25 / $2 = 0.12CPI = EV / AC = $0.25 / $2 = 0.12Getting 0.12 cents out of every dollar budgetedGetting 0.12 cents out of every dollar budgeted
SPI = EV / PV = $0.25 / $0.5 = 0.50SPI = EV / PV = $0.25 / $0.5 = 0.5050% of progress planned50% of progress planned
EAC = BAC / CPI = $3 / 0.50 = $ 6 BillionEAC = BAC / CPI = $3 / 0.50 = $ 6 Billion
EVM Hints EVM Hints
EV comes first in every formulaEV comes first in every formula If it’s variance, the formula is EV – somethingIf it’s variance, the formula is EV – something If it’s index, EV / somethingIf it’s index, EV / something If it relates to cost, use Actual CostIf it relates to cost, use Actual Cost If it relates to schedule, use PVIf it relates to schedule, use PV Negative numbers are bad, positive is goodNegative numbers are bad, positive is good
Ref: Rita Mulcahy
Cost Types Cost Types
Direct Costs Direct Costs
Related “Directly” to the projectRelated “Directly” to the project
ex. Labor hours, material, equipment, ex. Labor hours, material, equipment, food, travel. . .food, travel. . .
Indirect Costs Indirect Costs
Overhead used for more than one projectOverhead used for more than one project
ex. Building rent, taxes, janitorial ex. Building rent, taxes, janitorial servicesservices
Cost TypesCost Types
A cost by any other name, really isn’t the same!A cost by any other name, really isn’t the same!• Variable Cost – Changes with volume Variable Cost – Changes with volume • Fixed Cost – Stay the same, regardless of volumeFixed Cost – Stay the same, regardless of volume
COSTCOST
Volume Volume
TC = VC+FC
VC
FC
Cost Types Cost Types
Project Costs Project Costs Are incurred while the project is being Are incurred while the project is being
fulfilled.fulfilled.
Life Cycle CostsLife Cycle CostsIncludes the costs after project completion.Includes the costs after project completion.
There may be temptation to lower project costs at There may be temptation to lower project costs at the expense of long term costs. Life Cycle the expense of long term costs. Life Cycle Costing gives the PM a way to consider costs Costing gives the PM a way to consider costs outside of the scope of project fulfillmentoutside of the scope of project fulfillment
Important ConceptsImportant Concepts
Sunk CostsSunk Costs
Forget ‘em, they’re goneForget ‘em, they’re gone
Working CapitalWorking Capital Current Assets (Cash, Inv, AR) – Current Current Assets (Cash, Inv, AR) – Current
Liabilities Liabilities (Notes, AP, Accr)(Notes, AP, Accr)
Cost and Project SelectionCost and Project Selection
Present Value Present Value • Is $10,000 in your pocket now worth more than the Is $10,000 in your pocket now worth more than the
$10,000 in your pocket one year from now? $10,000 in your pocket one year from now?• Yes! You can use the money now to make more Yes! You can use the money now to make more
money. The 10,000 in a year from now should be money. The 10,000 in a year from now should be “discounted” to the present, since it’s not worth as “discounted” to the present, since it’s not worth as much.much.
Present Value of Your PMP Present Value of Your PMP Consulting Gig Consulting Gig
Time Time Income Income Present Value Present Value
00 10,00010,000 10,00010,000
11 10,00010,000 9,0909,090
22 10,00010,000 8,2648,264
33 10,00010,000 7,5137,513
44 10,00010,000 6,8306,830
TotalTotal 50,00050,000 41,69741,697
“
Net Present ValueNet Present Value
NPV, like Present Value, discounts future NPV, like Present Value, discounts future cash flows to the presentcash flows to the present
PV of Revenue – PV of CostsPV of Revenue – PV of Costs
Net Present Value: Your PMP Gig Net Present Value: Your PMP Gig
Time Time Revenue Revenue Present Present Value Value
CostsCosts PV of PV of CostsCosts
NPV NPV
00 10,00010,000 10,00010,000 12,00012,000 12,00012,000 -2000-2000
11 10,00010,000 9,0909,090 2,0002,000 1,8181,818 7,2727,272
22 10,00010,000 8,2648,264 2,0002,000 1,6531,653 6,6116,611
33 10,00010,000 7,5137,513 2,0002,000 1,5021,502 6,0116,011
44 10,00010,000 6,8306,830 2,0002,000 1,3661,366 5,4645,464
TotalTotal 50,00050,000 41,69741,697 20,00020,000 18,33918,339 23,35823,358
Internal Rate of Return Internal Rate of Return
What is the return on the money invested?What is the return on the money invested?• Expressed as percentageExpressed as percentage• Great for comparing between two projects of Great for comparing between two projects of
different valuedifferent value
Project A has an IRR of 21% and Project B has an Project A has an IRR of 21% and Project B has an IRR of 14%. Which would I choose?IRR of 14%. Which would I choose?
Payback PeriodPayback Period
How long until we get the money back?How long until we get the money back?• ““Quick and Dirty” method for project selectionQuick and Dirty” method for project selection• Does not take into account the Time Value of Does not take into account the Time Value of
MoneyMoney
Your Project costs $50,000, and the cash Your Project costs $50,000, and the cash flow it will bring is $11,000 a year.flow it will bring is $11,000 a year.
The Payback Period is. . . 5 yearsThe Payback Period is. . . 5 years
Benefit Cost Ratio Benefit Cost Ratio
Compares the revenues to the costsCompares the revenues to the costs• Revenue in this is the same as “payback”Revenue in this is the same as “payback”• 1 is the magic number where costs = revenue1 is the magic number where costs = revenue• Less than 1, costs are greater than benefitsLess than 1, costs are greater than benefits• Greater than 1, and the benefits are greater than Greater than 1, and the benefits are greater than
costs.costs.
If Project A has a BCR of 2.2 and Project B If Project A has a BCR of 2.2 and Project B has a BCR of 1.2, pick A.has a BCR of 1.2, pick A.
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
If Earned Value (EV) = 300, Actual Cost If Earned Value (EV) = 300, Actual Cost (AC) = 450, Planned Value (PV) = 275, (AC) = 450, Planned Value (PV) = 275, what is the Cost Variance (CV)?what is the Cost Variance (CV)?
a. 25a. 25
b.-150b.-150
c. 150c. 150
d. 175d. 175
Ref: Rita Mulcahy
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
If Earned Value (EV) = 300, Actual Cost If Earned Value (EV) = 300, Actual Cost (AC) = 450, Planned Value (PV) = 275, (AC) = 450, Planned Value (PV) = 275, what is the Cost Variance (CV)?what is the Cost Variance (CV)?
a. 25a. 25
b.-150b.-150
c. 150c. 150
d. 175d. 175
CV = EV – AC
Negative is Over Budget
Positive is Under Budget
Ref: Rita Mulcahy
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
You have 4 projects from which to chose You have 4 projects from which to chose 1. Project A is a 5 year project with an 1. Project A is a 5 year project with an NPV of $80,000. Project B is a 2 year NPV of $80,000. Project B is a 2 year project with an NPV of $40,000. Project C project with an NPV of $40,000. Project C is a 4 year period and has an NPV of is a 4 year period and has an NPV of $50,000. Project D is being done over 1 $50,000. Project D is being done over 1 year and has an NPV of $70,000. year and has an NPV of $70,000.
Which Project should you chose?Which Project should you chose?
Ref: Rita Mulcahy
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
Project Project TimeTime NPVNPV
AA 5 yr5 yr $80,000$80,000
BB 2 yr2 yr $40,000$40,000
CC 4 yr4 yr $50,000$50,000
D D 1 yr1 yr $70,000$70,000
NPV already takes time into account, so you always pick the project with the highest NPV!
Ref: Rita Mulcahy
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
Early in the project you and your sponsor are Early in the project you and your sponsor are discussing which estimation should be used. discussing which estimation should be used. You want expert judgment, the sponsor wants You want expert judgment, the sponsor wants analogous estimating. The best option is to analogous estimating. The best option is to
a. Agree to analogous – it’s a form of a. Agree to analogous – it’s a form of expertexpert
b. Determine why the sponsor wants b. Determine why the sponsor wants such an such an accurate estimate.accurate estimate.
c. Try to convince the sponsor to allow c. Try to convince the sponsor to allow expert expert judgment since it is usually judgment since it is usually more more accurate.accurate.
d. Suggest life cycle as a compromise. d. Suggest life cycle as a compromise. Ref: Rita Mulcahy
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
a. Agree to analogous – it’s a form of experta. Agree to analogous – it’s a form of expert
b. Determine why the sponsor wants b. Determine why the sponsor wants such an such an accurate estimate.accurate estimate.
c. Try to convince the sponsor to allow c. Try to convince the sponsor to allow expert expert judgment since it is usually judgment since it is usually more more accurate.accurate.
d. Suggest life cycle as a compromised. Suggest life cycle as a compromise. .
Trick Question – Analogous Estimating is a form of expert judgment. Choice B seems tempting, but if you know that analogous estimation is not accurate, you realize this is a trap. A cruel and vicious trap, set for you by the PMP.
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
Cost performance measurement is BEST done Cost performance measurement is BEST done through: through:
a. Ask for a percent complete from each team member and a. Ask for a percent complete from each team member and reporting that.reporting that.
b. Calculating the earned value and using the indexes and b. Calculating the earned value and using the indexes and other calculations to report past performance and other calculations to report past performance and forecast future performance. forecast future performance.
c. Using the 50/50 rule and making sure the life cycle c. Using the 50/50 rule and making sure the life cycle cost is less than the project cost.cost is less than the project cost.
d. Focusing on the amount expended last month and d. Focusing on the amount expended last month and what will be expended the following month.what will be expended the following month.
PMP Exam QuestionsPMP Exam Questions
a.a. Ask for a percent complete from each team member and reporting that.Ask for a percent complete from each team member and reporting that.
Inaccurate because based on subjective guess.Inaccurate because based on subjective guess.
c. Using the 50/50 rule and making sure the life cycle cost c. Using the 50/50 rule and making sure the life cycle cost is less than the project is less than the project cost.cost.
50/50 rule isn’t always in the progress report, and the life cycle cost can 50/50 rule isn’t always in the progress report, and the life cycle cost can never be lower than the project cost, since the life cycle goes on well, for never be lower than the project cost, since the life cycle goes on well, for life.life.
d.d. Focusing on the amount expended last month and what will be expended the Focusing on the amount expended last month and what will be expended the following month.following month.
Rookie Answer – usually for inexperienced since the past can’t Rookie Answer – usually for inexperienced since the past can’t always always be used to tell the future.be used to tell the future.
b. Calculating the earned value and using the indexes and other b. Calculating the earned value and using the indexes and other calculations to report past performance and forecast future calculations to report past performance and forecast future performance.performance.
Objective measurements based on performance that can be applied to the future
SourcesSources
1.1. PMBOK GuidePMBOK Guide. PMI, Newton Square, PA. . PMI, Newton Square, PA. 2000, pp 83-952000, pp 83-95
2.2. PMP Exam Prep, Third Edition, Rita Mulcahy PMP Exam Prep, Third Edition, Rita Mulcahy PMP. RMC publications, 2002. pp. 133-161. PMP. RMC publications, 2002. pp. 133-161. Exam Questions adapted from pps. 150 #3, Exam Questions adapted from pps. 150 #3, 153 #24, 151 #9, 154, #31.153 #24, 151 #9, 154, #31.
3.3. Preparing for PMP Exam, Vijay Kanabar. Preparing for PMP Exam, Vijay Kanabar. Boston, MA, Boston University. 2004, pp 98-Boston, MA, Boston University. 2004, pp 98-110110
PPT SourcePPT Source
Version 1: Version 1: Manuel Guzman Manuel Guzman ■ Carlos Hurtado ■ Matthew Lyberg■ Carlos Hurtado ■ Matthew Lyberg
May 20, 2005May 20, 2005 Version 2: Vijay Kanabar 12/15/2007Version 2: Vijay Kanabar 12/15/2007