project contingency sanitised
TRANSCRIPT
Project Contingency Chris Vizzuett
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
An assessed cost to cover project risk (known / unknowns)
and uncertainties based on an established scope of work.
Contingency is not intended to cover Client Change Orders
and out of scope changes.
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
An assessed cost to cover project risk (known / unknowns)
and uncertainties based on an established scope of work.
Contingency is not intended to cover Client Change Orders
and out of scope changes.
guesstimate mostly
our understanding
of the
The Client will try to
use the project’s
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
An assessed cost to cover project risk (known / unknowns)
and uncertainties based on an established scope of work.
Contingency is not intended to cover Client Change Orders
and out of scope changes.
guesstimate mostly
our understanding
of the
The Client will try to
use the project’s
Your Business Unit Manager expects you not to spend
it and to give it back in order to improve the Unit’s
profit this quarter.If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule contingency
CostcontingencyIf you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at
CARMICHAEL COAL PROJECT
Mine• Underground (2x) and open-cut 60Mtpa• Coal handling processing plant• Associated infrastructure
Railway• 388 km standard railway• 24 k tonnes per load
Coal Terminal• Adjacent to existing terminal• Jetty, wharf, transfer towers, shiploaders
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
SCOPE
Bankable Feasibility Study (3x)
Three separate packages• Design• Procurement• Construction• Class 3 estimate (OPEX and CAPEX)
• Class 3 execution schedule• Investment model
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
SCOPE
Bankable Feasibility Study (3x)
Three separate packages• Design• Procurement• Construction• Class 3 estimate• Class 3 execution schedule• Investment model
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
SCOPE
Bankable Feasibility Study (3x)
Three separate packages• Design• Procurement• Construction• Class 3 estimate• Class 3 execution schedule• Investment model
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule• Build execution schedule• Produce mini-schedule
Risks • Identify discrete risks• Preliminary schedule confidence ranging
Workshop
Build model • Primavera risk analysis
Run model • Monte Carlo simulation
Contingency • P10 to P90• Days and dollars
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks
Sch. uncertainty
Discrete risk
Expected weather
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Sch. uncertainty
Discrete risk
Expected weather
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Sch. uncertainty
Discrete risk
Expected weather
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Sch. uncertainty
Discrete risk
Expected weather
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Sch. uncertainty
Discrete risk
Expected weather
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Workshop Build model
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Workshop Build model Run model
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Workshop Build model Run model Contingency
30-Mar-18 22-Jun-18 13-Sep-18 05-Dec-18 27-Feb-19 21-May-19
Distribution (start of interval)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Hits
0% 24-Mar-18
5% 03-May-18
10% 14-May-18
15% 22-May-18
20% 29-May-18
25% 04-Jun-18
30% 11-Jun-18
35% 17-Jun-18
40% 23-Jun-18
45% 30-Jun-18
50% 07-Jul-18
55% 13-Jul-18
60% 20-Jul-18
65% 28-Jul-18
70% 04-Aug-18
75% 14-Aug-18
80% 25-Aug-18
85% 08-Sep-18
90% 30-Sep-18
95% 22-Nov-18
100% 14-Jul-19
Cum
ulat
ive
Freq
uenc
y
Carmichael Coal Mine Risk Assessment Programme 140711 v2 (Post-mitigated)475 - Mine Practical Completion : Finish Date
P10 P50 P70 P 90
Practical Completion 51 105 133 190
If you wish a transcript of the presentation email me at [email protected]
Schedule Risks Workshop Build model Run model Contingency
14%14%
14%
14%
14%14%
14%
14%
14%
40%42%
73%82%82%
84%
84%86%
86%
86%
86%
100%475 - Mine Practical Completion
905 - Lonw all 2 Development
935 - Longw all 2 Installation
945 - Lonw all 2 - No Load/Load Commissioning
405 - Underground - Longw all 2 First Coal875 - Pit Wall and f loor bottom Stabilisation
885 - Box Cut complete
305 - Mine Lease Granted
865 - Box Cut Excavation
515 - Mining Lease (ML)
835 - Construct temporary access through to Underground Mine855 - Flood Protection Levee
435 - CHPP complete
1115 - Wet Commissioning
315 - Financial Close complete
395 - Underground - Longw all 1 First Coal425 - CHP A complete
1095 - ROM and RAW Coal handling
505 - Financial Close process
1075 - Contractor Mobilisation
1085 - Civil and earthw orks
Carmichael Coal Mine Risk Assessment Programme 140711 v2 (Post-mitigated)Criticality Index
Useful tipsUseful tips
Do not underestimate the time required to explain:- process - meaning of P10…- importance of inputs- evidence-based risk assessment
Quality of the Schedule PRM READINESS GUIDELINES FOR P6 SCHEDULE
• Activity Relationships.• Lags.• Constraints or Imposed Dates.• The objective is for the critical path(s) to
be the result of pure logic and durations from beginning to end. In any case, there should be minimal date constraints in the logic network.
• Other Concerns for P6:Out-of-Sequence LogicAll actual dates must be earlier than the data date;Before the P6 schedule is loaded into PRA, all WBS, Hammocks and level-of-effort activities should be deleted.
• Ensure there is no negative float in the schedule.
Attitudes towards risk
One World, different views…
Past experiences
Organisational culture
Local knowledge
Client already has an expected outcome in mind
These are only tools…
Project Contingency Chris [email protected]