A Natural Disaster Crisis is often an endless crisis: people might be at risks for many years, decades or even centuries. There is always a permanent need for surveillance and awareness.

Project: Analysis and Prevention of Natural Hazards in DRCResultats 4 : comunication/education/sensitizationResultats 5 : Projet Management

Fund RaisingsExpanding this kind of Project RegionallyIncreasing capacities of MSR

Natural Disasters in Lake Kivu area: a UNOPS pilot project a best practice ?UNOPS/E.U./Swiss Coop. (DDC)Dept. Environmental Sciences, University of Naples2 (Italy)Goma Volcano Observatory (DRC)

Using high tech & low tech equipments

Identification of Possible Natural Hazards:Volcanic EruptionsEarthquakesAcid Rains (up to pH 0)Deadly Soil CO2 Gas EmissionsPoor Water Quality (Endemic Fluorosis)Mudflows/LandslidesKiller Lake Man Made HazardsLake PollutionDeforestation and Landslides

50/52m228m (220 in June 2010)253/260m (230 in June 2010)31 Mai -05m03 Jun -15m04 Jun -44m05 Jun -49m08 Jun -52/55m1.8 Mm3 di lava+5000m2

Sept. 28, 2011

Platform 2Platform 1600 m-900 m-180 m-90 m-600 mCrater rimbottom

10/15 Mm318/25 Mm3+3m Juin 2011.

Early Warning SystemSeismic (I.N.G.V.) digital, real time telemetered system GPS network telemetered but data cannot be used in real time (hopefully soon should be available )EVOSS (and an E.U. funded project) gives real time satellite observations to GVO being an end-user.In case of warning of a possible eruptive activity sirenes will warn local population about the event.

Bukavu/Kalehe Earthquake M = 5.3

CO2 gas emanations: evil winds/mazuku, elephants graveyard, the tragedy of the new comers

CO2 concentration usually ranges from 20-30% up to 90% in atmosphere.10/15% is considered the lethal threshold for human beings

Bats were found dead 40 meters above the CO2 line during day time

Need to have a map with all mazukus of the area: Urban development & safer lives

Plume affects down wind areaspH rain waters from 0-1 to 5HF-HCl-SO2-rich gas emisions

Plume Acid Gas Emissions and ashes are responsible for soil acidification and poor water quality down-wind the volcano. Long term emissions may cause increasing hazard and possible unrest for food production (agriculture and cattles) and related health problems.Problems. A mapping of elements iso-concentrations should be a good test to check such a possible hazard.Water analysis, from local rains confirm such an hypothesis. Using/drinking rain waters collected from metal roofs is also extremely harmful and dangerous

science for end users

Mudlows/lahar at Kibiriga (46 people died)

Kivu Volcanic ProvinceVirunga Volcanic ProvinceLake KivuIdjwi IslandKabuno BayWestern Branch of the East African Rift SystemGyiseniKibuye

The water samplingGomaLcLsRMaj ya MotoMakeraBukomoKabuno BayLake KivuKisuma SpringKisumaKihiraSakeTingiKaputemboLac VertRukoreMubambiroMusholosaMayhuzaKankule I & IIRwindiRamboCap RubonaThermal and mineral waterCold waterLake waterLegendMpengeRukoreMbiziNyagatembe

Parameters controlling lake stability: vertical distribution of the main dissolved gases (Main basin)

The 2002 Eruption

Lake KivuKabuno BaySeasonally mixed layerPermanently stratified0100200300400500Depth (m)High gas concentrationMagmatic CO2 and magmatic Helium diluted by that of basementBiomass sedimentationMicrobial reductionMicrobial fermentationNyiragongoNyamuragira?Fault systemEWBasementBasementMagmatic CO2 and magmatic Helium only slightly affected by that of the basement Organic CO2?14% sat at 100m33% sat at 470m13% sat at 50m16% sat at 140m

Impact ScaleProbability of OccurrenceNgligiblePas de morts, blesss multiples. Impact minimal sur la qualit de vie. Arrt des installations / services de base pour moins de 24 heures. Moins de 10% de domages svres sur les proprits. Very probableProbabilit de prs de 100% dans lanne ou 100% de probabilit sur le type deruption.LimitedQuelques morts et blesss. Arrt complet des installations/services de base pour moins dune semaine. Plus de 10% de dommages svres sur les proprits.ProbableEntre 10% et 100% de probabilit dans lanne, ou au moins une chance dans les dix prochaines annesCriticalMoins de 100 morts et blesss. Arrt complet des installations/services de base pour au moins deux semaines. Plus de 25% de dommages svres sur les proprits.PossibleEntre 1% et 10% de probabilit dans lanne, ou au moins une chance dans les cent prochaines annesCatastrophicNombreux morts et blesss. Arrt complet des installations/services de base pour au moins un mois. Plus de 50% de dommages svres sur les proprits.little PossibilityMoins de 1% de probabilit dans lanne, ou moins dune chance dans les cent prochaines annes

The past is the key of the future

in our case is the present.

The Contingency Plan is the operative mean to mitigate huge losses due to Natural Disasters.The CP for the city of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda) is operative. It is the most important existing CP for a community, involving more than 1.5 milion people.The different scenario will be briefly introduced and discussed.The Contingency Plan

PROBABLE

Nyamulagira : scenario 1PROBABLEEvent: Fractures opening, important lava flows at west, north or east of the volcano, volcanic plume, scoria cones

Area affected: Limited to the forest of Virunga National Park

Population affected by the volcanic plume: Population in few kilometers around the eruptive site (mainly at west)

Duration (estimation)Crisis (emergency period): several weeks to several months (up to 2 years)Post-emergency: ~3 monthsRehabilitation: ~3 months

1938-19401948Smets et al., JAES, 2009

Nyamulagira : scenario 2POSSIBLEEvent: Fractures opening, important lava flows at south or west of the volcano, volcanic plume, scoria cones

Area affected: Forest of the Virunga National Park, urban areas of Sake - Mubambiro, plus the Sake - Kitchanga & Goma - Sake road

Population affected by the volcanic plume: Population few kilometers around the eruptive site (mainly on the south and south-western sides)

Population affected by the lava flows: Sake - Mubambiro area (south) or less probably Kabalekasha - Kitchanga area (west)

Duration (estimation)Crisis (emergency period): several weeks to several months (up to 2 years). Post-emergency: ~3 months up to few years (depending on the M of the eventRehabilitation: ~1 year or more (as above)

POSSIBLE

POSSIBLE

POSSIBLE

Nyiragongo : scenario 1POSSIBLE

Event: Opening fractures, lava flows, volcanic plume, scoria cones, phreato -magmatic explosion in case of fractures near the Lake KivuArea affected: Area south of the volcano, Goma and vicinity, probably GisenyiPopulation affected (estimation)Dead: ~200Injured: ~2.000Displaced: ~250.000Duration (estimation)Crisis (emergency period): ~1 week to months, depending on the M of the eruptive eventPost-emergency: ~3 months to years (as above)Rehabilitation: ~1 year ~ x or ? years

Poco Probable

Awareness through Education and Communication

(i) Animateurs in schools (170000 students reached in 2011) : How volcanoes work, how to live with them and what to do in case of eruption.(ii) Radio programs once a week on Natural Disasters(iii) SMS on cell phones on the situation of the volcanoes(iv) Launching a Design Prize in schools on Natural Disasters Perception (january 2012)(v) Conferences with Local Autorithies of DRC and Rwanda, humanitarians and civil society.vi) Distribution of leaflets, booklets, modules for teachers in schools on Natural Disasters both in french and hahili

Messages and scripts need to be simple, transparent and clear

Identification of Natural and Man Made AnomaliesUnderstanding the problem(s)

(1) Mapping & Monitoring (2) Preparedness, Awareness, Management (3) Scenario(s) and Contingency Plan (4) Emergency Response & Mitigation

Sharing Natural Disasters Information and Joint Plannning between neighbouring countries (RDC&Rwanda&Uganda) at all levels. Main Actors are always Local Governments and Local Communities helped by the International Community

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