progressive palaeontology 2016 presentation

A moderately interesting event at the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary

Jon Tennant

Images from Phylopic

Thanks! • NERC• PALASS• SVP

History of the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary• Pioneering work by Newell,

Raup, Sepkoski• Originally considered to be a

‘major extinction’• The ‘Sepkoski Compendium’• Understood general controls

on the fossil record• Evaluations at a very coarse

level

Jon Tennant Background

Raup (1976)

Raup and Sepkoski (1982)

History of the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary• Taxonomic selectivity•Geographic constraints•Not a mass extinction•Changes caused by

regional facies shifts


Hallam (1986)

The era of not much happening


Bambach (2006)

The structure of the fossil record

Jon Tennant Sampling issues

Smith and McGowan (2011)

The structure of the fossil record

Jon Tennant Sampling issues

Smith and McGowan (2007)

Evidence for a faunal turnover on land?

Jon Tennant Current understanding

Zanno and Makovicky (2013)

Bronzati et al. (2015)

Newham et al. (2014)

Evidence for a faunal turnover in the oceans?

Jon Tennant Current understanding

Benson and Butler (2011) Nicholson et al. (2015)

What do we want to know?•Can we quantify changes in tetrapod diversity over the J/K transition?•What is the spatial structure of these changes?•What external environmental parameters were responsible for mediating diversity?

Jon Tennant Methods

The fully-functional Paleobiology Database• 4907 species• 15,472 occurrences• 7314 references• Split into higher taxonomic

clades• Fully aquatic or non-marine• Palaeocontinents• Time binning methods

Jon Tennant Methods

Methodological approach•Shareholder Quorum Subsampling (SQS)•Model-fitting of environmental parameters•Extinction and origination rates•Regional sampling proxies

Jon Tennant Methods

Jurassic/Cretaceous tetrapod occurrences

Jon Tennant Results

Subsampled tetrapod diversity (I)

Jon Tennant Results

Subsampled tetrapod diversity (II)

Jon Tennant Results

Subsampled tetrapod diversity (III)

Jon Tennant Results

Subsampled tetrapod diversity (IV)

Jon Tennant Results

3T extinction rates

Jon Tennant Results

Stage Aves Chel ChorCrocs (non-

marine)Crocs

(marine)Ichthy Lepid Liss Mamm Ornith Plesio Ptero Sauro Test Thero

Maastrichtian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NACampanian 0.693 NA NA NA NA NA 1.038 1.03 1.658 0.916 NA 0.452 NA NA 0.84Santonian NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.345 NA NA 0.511 0.875 0.606 NA 1.01 NAConiacian NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.345 NA NA 1.897 2.955 0.724 3.519 NA NATuronian 0.693 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.916 1.569 NA NA NA NACenomanian NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.038 NA NA NA 1.569 NA 2.575 NA 1.805Albian NA NA NA 0.956 NA 0.305 1.038 2.02 1.658 1.427 NA NA 1.322 NA 1.245Aptian NA NA NA 1.361 NA 0.305 0.345 NA 1.253 NA NA NA NA NA 0.552Barremian NA NA NA 0.262 NA 0.305 0.345 0.63 0.56 NA NA NA NA NA NAHauterivian NA NA NA 0.262 NA NA NA 0.63 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.245Valanginian NA NA NA 0.262 0.125 NA NA 1.32 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.245Berriasian NA NA NA 0.55 0.818 NA NA NA NA 1.204 NA NA NA 2.11 0.958Tithonian NA NA NA 0.956 1.378 1.404 1.731 NA 3.268 2.015 NA 0.724 NA 2.62 2.855Kimmeridgian NA NA NA 0.262 0.307 0.305 0.345 0.63 0.56 0.511 NA NA NA 1.01 NAOxfordian NA NA NA NA 0.125 0.305 0.633 NA NA 0.511 0.875 NA NA NA NACallovian NA NA NA NA 0.125 NA NA NA NA 0.511 NA NA NA NA 0.552Bathonian NA NA NA NA 0.125 NA NA NA 0.56 0.511 NA NA NA NA NABajocian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAAalenian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAToarcian NA NA NA NA NA 0.999 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPliensbachian NA NA NA NA NA 0.999 0.345 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NASinemurian NA NA NA NA NA 0.305 1.038 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAHettangian NA NA NA NA NA 0.711 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

3T origination rates

Jon Tennant Results

Stage Aves Chel ChorCrocs (non-

marine)Crocs

(marine)Ichthy Lepid Liss Mamm Ornith Plesio Ptero Sauro Test Thero

Maastrichtian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NACampanian 1.792 NA NA NA NA NA 1.038 3.231 1.658 3.114 2.955 1.705 NA NA 2.056Santonian NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.038 NA NA 1.609 NA 1.299 NA 1.705 NAConiacian NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.345 NA NA 0.511 0.875 1.012 1.322 NA NATuronian 1.386 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.204 2.955 NA NA NA NACenomanian NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.443 NA NA NA 1.569 NA 1.727 NA 1.245Albian NA NA NA 0.668 NA 0.999 0.345 2.238 0.56 1.204 NA NA 3.268 NA 1.399Aptian NA NA NA 1.649 NA 0.305 1.731 NA 1.658 NA NA NA NA NA 2.344Barremian NA NA NA 0.262 NA 0.305 0.345 1.034 1.253 NA NA NA NA NA NAHauterivian NA NA NA 0.262 NA NA NA 1.322 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.552Valanginian NA NA NA 0.262 0.125 NA NA 0.629 NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.552Berriasian NA NA NA 0.262 0.125 NA NA NA NA 0.511 NA NA NA 1.012 1.245Tithonian NA NA NA 0.55 0.125 0.999 0.345 NA 0.56 0.511 NA 0.318 NA 2.11 1.651Kimmeridgian NA NA NA 2.054 0.462 0.711 0.633 2.42 2.575 2.708 NA NA NA 2.621 NAOxfordian NA NA NA NA 0.818 0.305 0.345 NA NA 0.511 0.875 NA NA NA NACallovian NA NA NA NA 0.531 NA NA NA NA 0.511 NA NA NA NA 0.552Bathonian NA NA NA NA 0.818 NA NA NA 0.56 0.511 NA NA NA NA NABajocian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAAalenian NA NA NA NA NA 0.305 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAToarcian NA NA NA NA NA 0.999 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAPliensbachian NA NA NA NA NA 0.305 0.345 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NASinemurian NA NA NA NA NA 0.305 0.345 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NAHettangian NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Regional sampling structure (N. America)

Jon Tennant Results

Regional sampling structure (Europe)

Jon Tennant Results

Is global subsampled diversity biased?

Jon Tennant Results

Group

Non-marinerho p-value

Adjusted p-value

r p-valueAdjusted p-value

Aves 0.321 0.498 0.988 -0.174 0.708 0.865Choristoderes -0.500 1.000 1.000 -0.509 0.660 0.865Crocodyliformes 0.273 0.448 0.988 0.015 0.967 0.967Lepidosauromorphs 0.050 0.912 1.000 0.317 0.406 0.757Lissamphibians 0.000 1.000 1.000 -0.340 0.371 0.757Mammaliaformes 0.079 0.838 1.000 -0.292 0.413 0.757Ornithischians 0.209 0.539 0.988 0.424 0.539 0.847Pterosaurs 0.521 0.123 0.451 0.309 0.387 0.757Sauropodomorphs 0.736 0.024 0.264 0.733 0.031 0.171Testudines -0.117 0.776 1.000 -0.094 0.810 0.891Theropods 0.531 0.079 0.435 0.790 0.004 0.044

MarineChelonioides -0.500 1.000 1.000 -0.474 0.686 0.842Crocodyliformes 0.690 0.069 0.138 0.740 0.036 0.144Ichthyopterygians 0.612 0.060 0.138 0.479 0.166 0.332Sauropterygians 0.335 0.263 0.351 0.061 0.842 0.842

Spearman's rank Pearson's PMCC

Tetrapod-bearingCollections

Same pattern with Formations

What controls regional subsampled diversity? (Europe)

Jon Tennant Results

rho p-valueAdjusted p-value


Raw richness 0.671 0.006 0.034 0.513 0.042 0.167Collections 0.468 0.070 0.140 0.474 0.064 0.167

Occurrences 0.512 0.045 0.135 0.446 0.084 0.167Good's u -0.147 0.616 0.660 -0.348 0.223 0.267

Formations 0.326 0.173 0.259 0.328 0.171 0.256Global sea-level -0.115 0.660 0.660 -0.153 0.557 0.557

Subsampled richnessCrocodyliformes 0.036 0.964 0.964 0.381 0.400 0.599

Lepidosauromorpha 0.657 0.175 0.525 0.449 0.372 0.599Ornithischia 0.091 0.811 0.964 0.323 0.363 0.599Pterosauria -0.107 0.840 0.964 0.277 0.547 0.657Testudines -0.257 0.658 0.964 0.034 0.949 0.949Theropoda 0.527 0.123 0.525 0.605 0.064 0.383

EuropePearson's PMCCSpearman's rank



Raw richness -0.217 0.318 0.547 -0.141 0.521 0.625Collections -0.164 0.456 0.547 -0.173 0.430 0.625

Occurrences -0.228 0.293 0.547 -0.180 0.411 0.625Good's u -0.547 0.046 0.275 -0.429 0.126 0.625

Formations 0.179 0.438 0.547 0.174 0.451 0.625Global sea-level -0.069 0.795 0.795 -0.018 0.945 0.945

Subsampled richnessCrocodyliformes 0.143 0.752 0.759 0.239 0.569 0.569Ichthyopterygia 0.115 0.759 0.759 -0.309 0.385 0.569Sauropterygia 0.321 0.368 0.759 0.347 0.325 0.569

Spearman's rank Pearson's PMCCEurope

Non-marine Marine

What controls regional subsampled diversity? (N. America)

Jon Tennant Results




Occurrences 0.386 0.157 0.309 0.388 0.153 0.305Good's u -0.073 0.839 0.965 -0.290 0.387 0.464

Formations -0.012 0.965 0.965 -0.146 0.589 0.589Global sea-level 0.581 0.016 0.098 0.630 0.007 0.040

Subsampled richnessOrnithischia 0.150 0.708 0.708 0.268 0.485 0.485Theropoda -0.452 0.268 0.536 -0.404 0.321 0.485

North AmericaPearson's PMCCSpearman's rank




Occurrences 0.146 0.602 0.683 0.474 0.074 0.133Good's u 0.300 0.683 0.683 0.298 0.626 0.626

Formations 0.479 0.166 0.332 0.457 0.185 0.221Global sea-level 0.463 0.063 0.332 0.702 0.002 0.010

North AmericaSpearman's rank Pearson's PMCC

Non-marine Marine

Environmental factors governing diversity

Jon Tennant Results

Likelihood Weight rhoadjusted p-value

radjusted p-value

Crocodyliformes (marine) Palaeotemp. 22.741 0.237 -0.524 0.634 -0.522 0.678Crocodyliformes (non-marine) Sea level 26.285 0.969 0.750 0.175 0.846 0.028Lissamphibia Palaeotemp. 38.260 0.796 0.700 0.301 0.742 0.154Mammaliaformes Sea level 51.394 0.931 -0.450 0.537 -0.666 0.301Ornithischia Sea level 60.106 0.391 0.200 0.681 0.047 0.898Pterosauria Sea level 33.261 0.872 0.714 0.406 0.647 0.581Sauropodomorpha Sea level 41.191 0.501 0.310 0.810 0.457 0.564Sauropterygia Sea level 41.820 0.409 0.055 0.906 0.065 0.985Testudines Palaeotemp. 50.648 0.258 0.343 0.880 0.462 0.891Theropoda Sea level 72.931 0.534 -0.018 0.968 0.037 0.954

AICc Pearson's PMCCSpearman's rankGroup Parameter

Conclusions I• Faunal turnover in both marine and non-marine realms• Tempo, mode and magnitude of decline highly variable• Evidence for an ‘extinction wave’ and ecological reorganisation• Primary driver was eustatic sea level• Also impacted the marine realm:• Low-latitude shelf-dwelling faunas primarily affected• Marine revolution in micro-organism communities

Jon Tennant Conclusions

Conclusions II• Cannot rule out

singular catastrophic events

progressive palaeontology 2016 presentation

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