PROGRESS the modelling

Rene Jochem

Modeling: my story line

Objective of this presentation

Focus on the methodology

Illustrated by an example of a possible pilot action

Modeling: my story line

Ecology : Habitat modeling

• Process• Who was involved• What kind of data is available• Selecting species• Combining species and data• Example

Ecology : Process

• Preparing habitat maps– Based on modeling expert knowledge

• 1st meeting: what do we have, how can we use it.– GIS maps– Distribution data– Field trip– Modeling

• New habitat maps incorporating knowledge from experts & data– Analysis on distribution data

• 2nd & 3th meeting : – habitat maps: proofing & fine tuning

Ecology : Involvement

Species Data• BTO• RSPB • English Nature

Expert input in meeting's, ornithologist from:• Forestry Commission• RSPB• English Nature• Sovon (Dutch NGO, like BTO)• Alterra

Ecology : Available GIS Data

Basic Data• Vegetation• Tree species• Felling data• Streams• Maintenance• Elevation• Tracks

• Open landscape (distance to woodland)• Slope

Ecology : Species Selection

Criteria:• Present species• Critical species

– Affected by recreation – Level of protection

• Data availability– Bird data

+ Presence/absence data

– Environmental GIS Data

Ecology : GIS Data => Habitat

Factors:• Vegetation type as mapped in 2003• Forest coniferous or broadleaved• Gorse & Bracken• Distance to Woodland (Open areas 50, 150, 300

m)• Topography

Ecology : Habitat factors & Selected species

Species Factor

Dartford warbler •Vegetation•Gorse

Woodlark •Vegetation•Woodland edge

Nightjar •Vegetation

Snipe •Vegetation•Open Landscape•Topography

Curlew & Lapwing •Vegetation•Open Landscape•Topography

Ecology : Woodlark example

Modeling: my story line

Recreation: GPS Analysis

Corrected GPS data, speed < 10km (Easter set)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 50 100 150 200 250

Visit time (underestimated) [minutes]

aver

age

spee

d [

km/h

]

Hond uitlaters < 2xper week

Hond uitlaters > 2xper week

Wandelaars

visitors max. distance from carparkBased on GPS data (year set)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

distance in meters

# vi

sito

rs (

n =

155

1)

0

25

50

75

100

125

% c

um

ula

tiv

e

Recreation: GPS Statistical analysis

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

11000

12000

dist to parking [m]

Nu

mb

er o

f G

PS

Po

ints

(15

21 g

rou

ps)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Den

sity

[p

oin

ts/h

a]

N GPS Pointsdens of GPS Points40 * e (̂-d*0.0015)

•Recreation: GPS Analysis

Recreation: GPS Pattern Analysis

Recreation: GPS Pattern Analysis

Recreation: Pressure SCAN => compartments

Recreation: Pressure SCAN

Modeling: my story line

Modeling Effects

MASOOR => detailed recreation modeling• Input

– User profiles– GPS data– Counting data– Path network & car parks

• Result– Density flow on the path network

• Translates into– Zones of lower reproduction

Recreation: Pressure SCAN

•Wilverly

•Shatterford

Population Dynamics

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year

nu

mb

er o

f p

airs

threshold

optimal habitat

plus environmental pressure

plus recreational pressure

Extinction

Population Dynamics: Conservation

Selecting the manageable factors within the population dynamics processes

• Improving habitat• Managing

recreational pressures

• …..

Recreation & Bird behavior

•disturbance

•fleeing

•abandoning nest

•alarming•increased fouraging

•decrease nesting

•decrease reproduction

•lower densities

•fouraging neighbour patch

•decrease reproduction

•lower densities

•increase extinction

•decrease exchange

•decrease # in patch

•decrease # in surrounding patches •extinction metapopulation

– •decrease viability

•fouraging neighbour patch

•increase mortality neighbour patches•abandoning

nest•nesting in neighbour patch

Sensitivity

Species Example: 30 passages/ hour

Effect on reproduction

Low (4) 30 m

Medium (3)

Woodlark 100 m

High (2) SnipeDartford warbler Nightjar Lapwing

300 m

Very high (1)

Curlew 600 m

Sensitivity to recreation

MASOOR => density flow => disturbance zones

• Path network (including path type)• GPS & Questionnaire data

– User profiles– User data– Pattern validation