Progress of US CLIVAR during 1998-2013

Reasons for recapping progress:- Present advances in scientific understanding of the climate system

- Demonstrate the return on investment of agency funding and interagency coordination of US CLIVAR research

US CLIVAR has had two phases- Phase 1, 2000 through 2005—Aligned with International Science Plan- Phase 2, since 2005 Reorganization—Leverages intl efforts and provides

information to be more useful domestically

How do we best present progress?- By science question?- By program goal?- By phenomena or research topic?- By our panel foci?

Should set stage for science questions and goals of future program

By Program Goals Identify and understand the major patterns of climate variability on seasonal, decadal and longer time scales and evaluate their predictability

Expand our capacity in short term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate prediction and search for ways to predict decadal variability

Better document rapid climate changes and the mechanisms for these events, and evaluate the potential for abrupt climate changes in the future

Evaluate and improve the models used to project climate change due to human activity, including anthropogenically induced changes in atmospheric composition

Detect and describe any climate changes that may occur

“U.S. CLIVAR has identified improved predictive capability as the main objective to leave as its legacy. "

By Phenomena

Modes of VariabilityEl Nino-Southern OscillationTropical Atlantic VariabilityMadden Julian OscillationArctic Oscillation/North Atlantic OscillationPacific Decadal VariabilityAtlantic Multidecadal VariabiltyAntarctic Oscillation

Ocean Variability and PredictabilityAtlantic Meridional Overturning CirculationNorth Pacific Gyre OscillationWestern Boundary CurrentsSouthern Ocean/Antarctic Circumpolar CurrentSalinity Variability

By PhenomenaMonsoon Systems

American MonsoonAfrican MonsoonAsian-Australian Monsoon

Climate ExtremesDroughtHurricanesTemperature and Precipitation Extremes

Anthropogenic Climate ChangeResponse of Modes/PatternsResponse of ExtremesAbrupt Changes

Sea Level Rise

By ActivityBuilding and Bolstering the Climate Observing and Data Systems

In-SituTropical Moored Arrays, Surface Drifters, Repeat Hydrography, VOS/XBT, ARGO Array, Ocean Reference Sites, AMOC Observing System, Surface Met and Upper Air Network…Remote Sensing

GOES/NPOESS, SST, Precipitation, Clouds, GPS/Integrated Water

Vapor, Altimetry, Scatterometry, Ocean Color, Salinity,,,

Climate Model Development and ImprovementProcess StudiesClimate Process Teams

Analyses and ReanalysesAssimilated Ocean and Atmospheric Data Sets and Reanalyses, Coupled Reanalyses

Prediction and Projection Improvement

Applications Interface