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Transportation Decision Making – Principles of Project Evaluation and Programming
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Transportation Programming
Chapter 20
Kumares C. Sinha and Samuel Labi
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Programming
Matching of needed projects to available funds
Performance-based and focus on accountability
Statewide process should be coordinated into metropolitan and trade and economic development planning activities
Increasing emphasis on multimodal tradeoffs
System preservation and management
Influenced by a wide range of policy, political, and qualitativefactors.
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Role of Programming
1. To make optimal investments to achieve strategic policy goals
2. To evaluate tradeoffs among investment options
3. To assist in the budgeting process
4. To facilitate efficient program and project delivery
5. To provide a mechanism to assess agency performance
6. To guide business process and give direction to agency operations
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Transportation Programming Process
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Transportation Programming Process
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Transportation Programming Process
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Programming Period and Unit
Amount of time over which specific decisions are made of facilities: 3-7 years
Long range planning period spans over several programming periods
A programming unit is defined by the geographical jurisdiction and the functional area
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Needs Assessment
Physical and Monetary
Role of Standards
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Fiscal Analysis
Required of both the State and MPO’s.Annual revenues from existing and proposed sources.Annual costs of construction, maintenance and operation.Comparison by category.Matching requirements.Maintenance and preservation.Balance for new projects.Iterative process.
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Program Performance Measures
Open process involving all stakeholders and should be updated periodically
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Table 20.2
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Trade-off Analysis
Between categories within a mode
Between modes
Between jurisdictional levels
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Programming Tools
1. Priority settinga. B/C Ratio or NPVb. Cost-Effectivenessc. Utility – cost
2. Heuristic Optimization
3. Mathematical Programming
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Figure 20.2
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Setting Project Priorities Using the Utility-Cost Ratio Method
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Integer Programming
Objective Function
Subject to Constraints
(total annual cost cannot exceed the yearly revenue)
1,
n
j jj
MaximizeTotalUtility U u x=
=∑
11, 2,.....,
n
jk j kj
c x B k m=
≤ =∑
j
jk
x =0or1(either a project is selected or not)
j= projectk=yearB=budgetc =cost for project ' j' in year 'k'
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Constraints
Available Funds, yearly or multi-year
By category, location, highway class
Non-budgetary constraintsCondition targets
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Multiyear Program
1n
ijkj
x for all i and all k=∑
0 1ijkx or=
( )h n m
ijk ijki j k
M ax U x U= ∑ ∑ ∑h n m
ijk ijki j k
x c B≤∑∑∑
0ijk ix if k y= <
Subject To:
ijk
i
c =cost for project 'j' for facility 'i' at year 'k',
B = total budget for the periody = year when facility 'i' is expected to have a need for improvement
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Constraints on Yearly Budgets, Possible Carryovers
( )h n m
ijk ijki j k
MaxU x U=∑∑∑
Subject To:
1
h n m m
ijk ijk ki j k k
x c B for all k=
≤∑∑∑ ∑
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Annual Budget Constraint, One or More Non Budget Constraints
( )h n m
ijk ijki j k
Max U x U=∑∑∑
min1 h n m
ijk ijki j k
x H H for all kh
≥∑∑∑
h n m
ijk ijk ki j k
x c B for all k≤∑∑∑Subject To:
max1 h n m
ijk ijki j k
x V V for all kh
≤∑∑∑
Hmin = performance targets for the network (floor)Vmax = performance targets for the network (ceiling)
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Example 20.3
A 5-year transit capital program.
Total cost of all projects is $963 million and total budget $600 million. Determine projects in optimal mix.
(i) Yearly budget constraint, no carryover(ii) Projects 1 and 7 cannot be simultaneously
implemented(iii) Yearly budget, carryover allowed
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Table E20.3.1
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Solution
0 1jx or=
10
1
5 10
1 1
1,2,3, 4,5
0 1
j jj
j jk kk j
j
Max U x U
subject to x c B for k
x or
=
= =
=
≤ =
=
∑
∑∑
10
1
1, 2,3, 4,5j jk kj
x c B for k=
≤ =∑
10
1j j
j
Subject To:
MaxU x U=
=∑
1 7 1x x+ ≤
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
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(ii)
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(iii)
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Goal Programming
To minimize adverse deviations
11 2 2Min Z w d w d− −= +
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Keys to Successful Programming
1. Link between Planning and Programming• Establish consistent criteria for long range planning and
programming
• Use management systems to generate candidate projects
• Update plans and programs on a consistent cycle
• Establish phased implementation strategies as part of the long range planning process
• Use consistent financial constraints
• Monitor key elements of programming constantly in order to update long range plans
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Keys to Successful Programming
2. Effective Fiscal Analysis• Careful revenue projections• Reliable cost estimates
• Maintenance and preservation• Capital projects
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Keys to Successful Programming
3. Adequate Capacity to Implement
Timely compliance with statutory requirements
Human resources to deliver projects
Agency’s capacity to implement the program –proper scheduling and cash flow management
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Keys to Successful Programming
4. Uncertainties Affecting Programming
Assume the useful life of a project is less than its economic life
Add a “risk premium” to the discount rate
Stage projects over time
Use scenario analysis to evaluate the effect of alternative futures
Perform sensitivity analysis for key variables
Incorporate risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation.
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Keys to Successful Programming
5. Intergovernmental Relationships and Public Involvement
Effective state-MPO – local agency partnershipsLegislative supportEffective communication
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Keys to Successful Programming
6. Equity Issues in ProgrammingTemporal (across programming periods) as well as spatial (across districts)
Engineering need vs. geographic formula
Equity concerns can be incorporated in performance measures.