professor patrizio bianchi - university of cambridge€¦ · professor patrizio bianchi university...
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A new approach to industrial policy
Professor Patrizio Bianchi
University of Ferrara and
Emilia Romagna Regional Government
Babbage Seminar Institute for Manufacturing, Charles Babbage Road, Cambridge
4 February 2013
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A New Approach to Industrial Policy
Patrizio Bianchi*^ Sandrine Labory*
*University of Ferrara and ^Regione Emilia – Romagna Government
Cambridge, Feb. 4, 2013
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PATRIZIO BIANCHI SANDRINE LABORY
INDUSTRIAL POLICY AFTER CRISIS:
SEIZING THE FUTURE
EDWARD ELGAR PUBLISHER
LONDON, 2011
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The world crisis is not only the dramatic effect of the financial
collapse, but it is the structural readjustment after the end of Bilateral
Equilibrium and starting of Globalisation
(IMF data; IMF Data Mapper Jan 2013)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Real GDP Growth (annual % change), 1980 - 2014
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World
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Since the end of WWII, the world GNP growth was leaded by the developed
countries; after the decade of structural readjustment following the collapse
of Planned Economies, the world dynamics is leaded by other major
economies
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Real GDP Growth (annual % change), 1980 - 2014
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies World
Berlin Wall Fall Twin Towers
Attack, Doha
agreement, EMU
Lehman
Brothers
Failure
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Countries react differently to the global crisis
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real GDP Growth, annual % change
Brazil China, People's Republic of India Western Europe
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• “As it is the power of exchanging that gives occasion to the division of labour, so the extent of this division must always be limited by the extent of that power, or, in other words, by the extent of the market” (WN, I,3, p.40)
Adam Smith
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Extent of the market
Division of labour
Power of exchanging
World-wide industrial reorganization:
- Delocalization of specific production from a
country to another country
- World-wide unbundling of the entire production
cycle
- De-linking of service and manufaturing steps
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CRISIS:
Countries reacted differently to the change in the extent of the market determined by globalization
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
SW UK GE SC FR BNL IT
AV/N
CL/N
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US EU RW RA
AV/N
cl/N
R&S, Multinationals: financial aggregates,
376 companies, milan 2012
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Oecd technology intensity based on % breakdown of net sales
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
UK
BNL
SW
SC
FR
GE
ITA
EU
HT
MHT
LMT
LT
R&S, Multinationals: financial aggregates,
376 companies, milan 2012
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And differently invested in Human capital
15.7
13.2 13
11.5 11.3 10.4
16.4
13.1 12.3
10.5
15.3
10.8
9 8.9
7.3 7.3
5.8 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.1 5 5 4.7
3.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Series1 Series2
Public expenditure on education 2010 as
% total exp. And as %GDP
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And in research
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
Usa China Jap Ger Fra UK Ita
GERD OECD, oct 2012
Series1
Gerd oecd in mil. dollar current
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EVIDENCE ON MANUFACTURING:
strategies of localization of the different stages and of control of the entire cycle of production:
Smith again:
Work done and work to be done (WN, I, VII, 19, 76-77)
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Work done and work to be done
• We can delocalize “work done” steps according to static advantages,
• but “work to be done” requires dynamic advantages
• In case 1) the attraction policy is to reduce costs
• In case 2) the attraction policy is to build positive externalities for human and social capital
•
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the present attention to Manufacturing Reinassance is the evidence that
De-linking work done and work to be done steps of production involves the risk of:
- loosing the control of production cycle
- loosing capabilities to transform innovation into production
- loosing the capacity to accumulate knowledge and competences of production
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“The greatest
improvement in the
productive powers of
labour, and the greater
part of the skill, dextery,
and judgement, …seem
to have been the effects
of the division of labour”
(WN, I, I, p.13)
The Wealth of Nations, today
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A strategy for increasing
added value and the
efficiency of the
production system
requires a basic
infrastructure for
increasing human capital
training and mobility
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- Adopting the technologies more
relevant for our country in our times
- understanding of the complexity of
present world and the relation between
the needs of our country and the
dynamics of world ecoonomy
- Consolidation of the social intangible
capital
Which are the setting targets for
specialization and complementarity
of competences
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Rethinking industrial policies today means to redefine
the basic concepts of collective, human actions and to
put them in a dynamic perspective
In this context it is necessary to redefine
the basic concept of development and the
instrument to support economic and social
growth
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The recent debate on
development and the
experiences of European policy
making have stressed two basic
concepts to analyse economic
dynamics and structural change
INNOVATION TERRITORY
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innovation
territory
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These two concepts are necessary but not
sufficient to define the new idea of
development
We introduce the two concepts of
ENTITLEMENTS and PROVISIONS
ENTITLEMENTS PROVISIONS
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
Policy lines
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
INNOVATION
POLICIES
STRUCTURAL
POLICIES WELFARE
POLICIES
EDUCATION
POLICIES
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
INNOVATION
POLICIES
STRUCTURAL
POLICIES WELFARE
POLICIES
EDUCATION
POLICIES
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innovation
territory
entitlements provisions
INNOVATION
POLICIES
STRUCTURAL
POLICIES WELFARE
POLICIES
EDUCATION
POLICIES
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The Case of China
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The Case of South Africa
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• The new industrial policies is a vision of the future
• Different visions are possible, but each choice involves opportunities and risks
• There is a coherence issue in defining the vision and in making the specific policies
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Policy making is a matter of
complexity
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The state in the globalization era is a complex interaction
of independent authorities
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Whole-of-government approach
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Regional government
National
government
International bodies
and regulations
European
Commission
Consistency of actions among the different policy
makers (“all-the- governments” approach)
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• What is the proper lever for policy integration?
• Regional/ macroregional
• National
• European
• The consistency issue in policy making:
Goals, governance, instruments
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One strategy to raise the
added value and the
efficiency of the
productive system is to
provide infrastructure
with a view to raise
human and social capital
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Two examples of systemic
approach to industrial policy
1)ER technical education reform
June 2010 to June 2012
2) The reconstruction of schools
after the May 2012 earthquake
May – November 2012
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Education and professional training Polytechnics’ network Higher education, research and international mobility Competencies and labour
1. Education reform
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Labour and competencies
Lower
education Technical institutes
Professional institutes IeFP
QUALIFYING COURSES
Professional diploma
University
Training grants for higher education
Ph.D. thesis
Research grants
La
bo
ur
ma
rke
t HIGHER EDUCATION, RESEARCH AND INTERNATIONAL
MOBILITY
Jo
b c
en
tre
s
ITS IFTS FS NETWORK OF
POLYTECHNIC
S
Professional
apprenticeship
Apprenticeship
High level
apprenticeship
PLACEMENTS
PLACEMENTS
PLACEMENTS
Co
mp
ete
ncie
s f
or
pro
du
cti
ve a
nd
o
rga
nis
ati
on
al in
no
va
tio
n Ph.D. in high level
apprenticeship
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Reconstruction of schools in the Emilia-Romagna Region after the 20-29 May 2012 earthquake
896 schools in need of control (building stability)
139 unusable schools
26 unusable schools for external causes
306 partially unusable
70,000 pupils in the whole earthquake territory
18,000 pupils in the unusable schools
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5 months after the earthquake:
All pupils are at school
All the unusable schools have been rebuilt in prefabricated class A buildings
All damaged schools have been repaired by the municipalities
We have a new high tech lab in a traditional sector
All policies have converged: territory, education, welfare and innovation
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Learning from reconstruction
• the capacity of reaction to the external event is depending on the capacity of the local community to be solid and resilient
• Enforcing entitlements of people to be properly educated stimulates capability for innovation and for rebuilding territorial capacities
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INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN THE EMILIA-ROMAGNA REGION: a long tradition
(Bianchi and Labory, Policy Studies, 2011)
1980s: ER is model of flexible specialisation, with industrial districts in traditional sectors
2000s: ER is model of regional innovation system, innovative region
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Social policy
1980s
Real business
services
Technopoles
From 2000
Spinner, creation of
new innovative
firms
Mid-2000s
Technical
High
School
2010
onwards
RER policies in practice
End- 80s and
early 90s
Technological
districts
Mid-90s
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Social policy
1980s
Real business
services
Technopoles
(2000-)
Spinner, creation of
new innovative
firms
Mid-2000s
Technical High
School
2010 onwards
End- 80s and
early 90s
Technological
districts
Mid-90s
2000 onward
1990s
1980s
what social policy
for a regional
innovation
system?
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What is the goal of policy
making?
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What is the goal?
growth
development
Social happiness
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Rethinking industrial policies today means
redefining the basic concepts of collective
actions and putting them in a dynamic
perspective