professor of political science & international relations ......source: lucy la rosa and david a....
TRANSCRIPT
8TH ANNUAL U.S.-MEXICO SECURITY CONFERENCE
TAKING STOCK OF MEXICO'S SECURITY
LANDSCAPE ONE YEAR ONWednesday, January 15, 2020
PRESENTATION
by
DAVID A.
SHIRKProfessor of
Pol i t ical
Science &
Internat ional Relat ions
MAJOR SECURITY
TRENDS
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INEGI
SNSP Cases (New Method)
SNSP Cases
Homicide Trends in Mexico, 1990-2019FINDING #1 NUMERICAL INCREASE IN HOMICIDES
155,371
Peña Nieto
122,319
Calderón
58,744
Fox80,311
Zedillo~92,587
Salinas
>37,000
AMLO
Homicide Rate, 1990-2018
FINDING #2 HOMICIDE HAS INCREASED PER CAPITA
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INEGI Rate (Victims) SNSP Rate (Victims)
Geographic Concentration of Violence
FINDING #3: SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERING OF HOMICIDES
2018
Local Centers of Violence: 2017 vs. 2018
Source: SNSP (cases)
FINDING #3: SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERING OF HOMICIDES
Local Centers of Violence: 2010 vs. 2018
Source: SNSP (cases)
FINDING #3: SIGNIFICANT CLUSTERING OF HOMICIDES
THE CASE OF TIJUANA
Otay Centenario
La Presa Este
La Presa
Centro
Sanchez
Taboada
FINDING #3: SIGNIFICANT
CLUSTERING OF HOMICIDES
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J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6
Fox (2000-2006) Calderón (2006-2012)
Peña Nieto (2012-2018) AMLO (2018-2024)
VARIATION BY PRESIDENTIAL TERM
FINDING #5: FAILURE OF GOVERNMENT RESPONSES
LOPEZ OBRADOR BEGINS WITH
HIGHEST VIOLENCE OF ANY
PRESIDENTIAL TERM
KEY CONTRIBUTING
FACTORS
The Fuel: Socioeconomic FactorsSocio-Economic Factors / Factores
socioeconómicosUnderlying factors include the “social disorganization”
of highly violent communities (e.g., Ingram 2014;
Muggah & Vilalta 2016).
(Muggah
& Vilalta2016)
(Ingram 2014)
The Spark: Organized Crime Dynamics
Localized Conflicts Among OCGs Are a Major Driver
LESSON OF THE KINGPIN STRATEGY
Ruben “Nemesio”
Oseguera, a.k.a. “El
Mencho”
The
kingpin
is gone,
long
live the
kingpin!
FINDING #2: ORGANIZED CRIME STILL MATTERS
Rise of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel
SOURCE: Lucy La Rosa and David A. Shirk, “The New Generation: Mexico’s Emerging
Organized Crime Threat,” Justice in Mexico Policy Brief, February 5, 2018
Splintering of Organized Crime Networks
EXTORTION & KIDNAPPING (1997-2019)
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Kidnapping
Extortion
Source: SNSP
NATIONAL CRIME STATISTICS
DIVERSIFICATION INTO FUEL THEFT
Tomas Clandestinas (2014)
FINDING #4: DIVERSIFICATION OF
ORGANIZED CRIME NATIONALLY
Recent Implications
November 4, 2019
WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
RELATED PAPERS & POLICY BRIEFS
www.justiceinmexico.org
The Resurgence of
Violence in Tijuana
The New Generation:
Mexico’s Emerging
Organized Crime Threat
Organized Crime and
Violence in Baja
California Sur
Organized Crime and
Violence in Mexico
justiceinmexico.org
THA
NK
YO
U!