professor brian collins cb, freng professor of …...professor brian collins cb, freng professor of...
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Global Challenges for the 21st Century
Professor Brian Collins CB, FREng Professor of Engineering Policy, UCL
Ex CSA BIS and DfT
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Global Risk Landscape 2012. Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks 2012, Seventh Edition
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But what are the chances of ‘something’ happening over 20 years…
The National Risk Register looks out five years
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Emergencies: the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (swine flu)
Source: NIID and ECDC 2009 Recorded human pandemics of influenza
Image of HN1N virus Source – US CDC
influenza laboratory
• 6 pandemics in 120 years. • Approximately 65% chance of
another in 20 years… • Severity highly variable
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New diseases, animals and plants
2010 2011 2012
Schmallenbourg
Novel coronavirus
novel Bunyavirus in China
Animal and human diseases: One consequence of a ‘small world’
Plant diseases also spreading
globally: e.g. Chalara
fraxinea
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Economic Losses related to selected Natural Catastrophes
Source: 2011 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
Increase in severe weather events and cost of natural catastrophes
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US Shale oil/gas reserves having significant impact on US economy
Bakkan formation (North Dakota)
Comparison: •Minneapolis •Dallas
Major reserves of fossil fuels
Coal Reserves (1012 BTU)
Potentially huge Arctic resources
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Contributions to uncertainty in decadal mean surface air temperature change estimated from the CMIP3 ensembles
Ed Hawkins, NCAS
• There are uncertainties around predicting precise impacts due to difficulties of:
• Scenario uncertainty: •Setting targets •Achieving consensus •Keeping to targets
• Model uncertainty:
•Knowledge limitations •Chaotic nature of the climate system
Delay in the climate system
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Global Supply Chain Resilience
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FROM CONTINUITY CENTRAL
Multi-factoral Resilience
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Challenges for Cities
• Density of everything – People, buildings and diversity – Means of transport – Energy consumption – Waste production – Water consumption – Data generation and Information exploitation
• Attractiveness for inward migration • Interdependency of everything
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Conclusions • The man made world and the natural world are
richly interdependent and intrinsically complex, and should be treated as one system
• Nations and cities need to collaborate on assessing the risks and opportunities that are presented by change of all types
• As global human population grows and cities become denser, the effect of extreme natural events, good public health, minimising the use of natural resources and ubiquitous education become critical
• We seem to be at a critical time for getting all these factors right – the next twenty years or so is crucial
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Thank you