prof. tim jackson’s report “prosperity without growth” – a review and critique
DESCRIPTION
Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique. By Trevor Berrill Sustainable Energy Systems Consultant and Environmental Educator. Population. Exploded hyperbolically 1800s Currently 7 Billion 5 Bill. Added in last 70 yrs Still adding 70mill./yr - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity
without Growth” – a review and critique
ByTrevor Berrill
Sustainable Energy Systems Consultant and Environmental
Educator
![Page 2: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Population
• Exploded hyperbolically 1800s
• Currently 7 Billion
• 5 Bill. Added in last 70 yrs
• Still adding 70mill./yr
• Projected 9 -10 Bill. by 2060
• Most Growth in Very Poor Countries
• Ratio Poor to Rich peopleNow 4:1 In few decades > 7:1 (Source: Nielsen, p.238) ? ? ?
![Page 3: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
No. of Earths to sustain 7 Bill. At Australian Affluence Level
![Page 4: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Prof. Tim Jackson’s Findings
“Prosperity without Growth” Report
![Page 5: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1. Building Sustainable Macro-Econ.
• Developing Macro-econ. Capability – tools, variables, interactions, investment required etc
Eg. Canadian Low Grow Model, IPCC, Stern Report
• Investing in green jobs and business, public assets and infrastructures Eg. Deutsche Bank Green Investment
• Increasing financial and fiscal prudence
• Improving macro-econ. accounting Eg. GDP vs ISEW
![Page 6: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2. Protecting Social Capabilities• Sharing work & improving work/life balance
Eg. various EU country work policies
• Tackling systemic inequality Eg. restrict CEO bonuses
• Measuring prosperity Eg. Dutch capabilities index
• Strengthening human & social capital Eg. Permaculture or Transition Towns movements
• Reversing culture of consumerism Eg. Scandinavian advertising policies
![Page 7: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
3. Respecting Ecological Limits
• Imposing clearly defined resource/emission caps Eg. Stockholm Resilience Centre “Planetary Boundaries Study”
• Fiscal reform for sustainability Eg. Green taxes that shift tax burden to pollution, not income
• Promoting sustainable technology transfer to poorer nations & ecosystem protection Eg. Clean Development Mechanism
![Page 8: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Issue’s and Criticisms
![Page 9: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Characteristics of Modern Economies
• Efficient ??? - Maybe if measured by monetary flows
• Not if measured by energy and material flows
• Still treat ecosystem as external to economy
• Don’t account for many forms of social capital
• Source: Foran, Millenium Report
![Page 10: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Cheap Energy = In-Efficiency!!
• Material Flows (North America) - 1% ends up in products & is still in use 6 months after sale.
• Energy Efficiency - only a few percent for most efficient countries.
(Source: Hawken et al, 1999:81)
![Page 11: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Least Efficient Transport Mode
0.6% Shifts Driver
12% Moves Car
99.4% Fossil Fuel WASTED
![Page 12: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Equitable?• Ratio of Wealth - Haves VS Have-nots increasing
• 1 bill. on < $1 per day, 2 bill. on < $2/day
• 20% Global Pop. Earn 2% of income
• OECD inequality increased in past 20yrs
• Ratio of CEO income to Workers income > 262:1
• Wealth - Trickly up / not down
• (Source: Jackson; Nielsen; Mishel)
![Page 13: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
CEO to Aver. Worker Pay
![Page 14: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Rich
Poor
![Page 15: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Perfect Markets?
• Advertising manipulation of young children
• Subsidies to Big Polluters - $10 Bill./yr to “fossil fool’s” industry in Australia
• “Ideal”/ “Equitable” Information Flows
![Page 16: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Real Cost of Middle East Oil to USA
> $450 per barrel Iraq war in 1990
Source: RMI Newsletter(1990), Vol. VI, No. III
Bulletin, 28 Sep 2003
![Page 17: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Sustainability Principles
• Polluter Pays > Ignored
• Precautionary Principle > Ignored
• Coal Industry – Mine Effluent / CSG Mining
• 60% of ecosystems degraded
• GHG emissions increase 40% since 1990
• Scarcity of crucial resources looming – oil, food, water
![Page 18: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
How the World Eats!
![Page 19: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Food Security?
• FAO – enough food for 12 bill.
• Proportion of undernourished in developing world declining since 1960s
• Source: FAO (2010) State of Food Insecurity in the World
Issues
• Wastage 30 to 40%
• Protectionism VS Globalisation
• Food resource intensity – food miles – 8000km for Cup of Yoghurt from Germany
• Commodity speculation
• Biofuels competition
• Extreme weather – global warming
![Page 20: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
FAO Food Insecurity Report 2010
![Page 21: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
If 9 bill. at Affluence Level of OECD
Need a World Economy Size increase by:
• 2050 of
• 2100 of
• This is a Totally Absurd, Unsustainable Goal
• 15 times larger
• 40 times larger
![Page 22: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Need a New Economic /Political Paradigm
Focus on Community ownership / control –
Energy / Water / Food / Shelter
Eg. Danish Windfarm Coops
• Steady State Econ.
• Ecological limits
• Re-defining Value
• Cooperation
• Minimising Waste
• Using renewable inputs
• Redistributing Wealth
![Page 23: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Jackson's Argument
Age of “Systemic” Irresponsibility
• Driven by “Economic Rationalism”
• Growth Imperative rules
• GFC - rogue individuals and slack regulators???
Caused by “Systemic Problem”
• Growth imperative > shaped Architecture of Modern Econs.
• Expansion of credit > fuel for growth
• Inherently ecologically and economically unstable
![Page 24: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Need to Redefine Prosperity from:Old Paradigm - Growth Imperative
• Material Focus - more is better
• Unlimited Freedoms
• Ever increasing GDP rules
• Any type of innovation / novelty is good
• Only way to create jobs
New Paradigm - Prosperity means “human’s capacity to flourish”
• Vital social and psychological aspects
• Participate meaningfully in life of society
• Range of “bounded capabilities”
• Live within Ecological Limits
![Page 25: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Energy Consumption of the Rich & Famous
Mariah Carey’s pet dog, “Jack”, used to fly first class but has grown too big.
He now travels by private jet or in a chauffeur-driven Mercedes.
Source: Sunday Mail 20 April 2008
![Page 26: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
In Defence of Growth
• Material opulence necessary to flourish
• Provides basic entitlements – health, education etc.
• Maintains economic and social stability
• Material possessions > allow participation in society > status, identity, social affiliations.
• Economic resilience > protect against external shocks > prevent collapse
• Expand fast enough to offset labour productivity
![Page 27: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Conventional Response - Decoupling
• Reduce material and energy throughout intensity
• Lots of room to move
• Evidence – energy /unit of econ. O/P declined 30% in last 30 yrs
• Carbon intensity has decreased > 1kgCO2/$ to 0.77kgCO2/$
Relative Decoupling• Intensity decreases but resource
impacts rise but more slowly –
Eg. when GDP grows faster than resource intensity decreases- total carbon emissions increased 40% since 1990
Absolute Decoupling• Resource impacts decline in total
![Page 28: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Material Intensity - OECD
![Page 29: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Critique of Decoupling• Evidence for overall
reductions hard to find
• Scale required is huge Eg. to Stabilise Climate at OECD level of aspiration for all, need 130 times lower C-intensity by 2050
770g CO2/$> 6gCO2/$ of Econ. O/P
Rule of Thumb
• In a growing econ. with increasing average income, absolute decoupling will occur when the rate of relative decoupling is greater than the rates of increase in population and income combined.
![Page 30: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Iron Cage of Consumerism
• Profit motive – newer, better, cheaper
• Survival in market – adapt and innovate
• Demand for novelty essential > STATUS
Perfect Complements• Restless consumer• Restless innovating
entrepreneur
> Relentless pursuit of novelty > undermines social well-being
![Page 31: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
A New Disease – AffluenzaWhen too much is never enough
(Source: CM “Life” Section 16/7/05, & Hamilton)
$30,000Diamonds
$100,000 SUVWeight 4 tonnesFuel Economy 10L/kmO-100kph in 2 secs
$2 Mill. McMansion500 m2
4 bathrooms12 entertainment roomsAver. Occupancy 1.5
![Page 32: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
After the Crisis – Reinvigorate at all costs
Keynesian Approach
• Public spending Eg. infrastructure
• Tax cuts to stimulate demand
• Ultimately Still rely on Consumption Growth
Variations - Green New Deal
Invest in:• Energy security• Low-C infrastructure –
RE, EE and CCS• Ecological protection –
Barrier Reef pollution
![Page 34: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Renewable Energy
![Page 35: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Macro-economics for Sustainability
Goals:• Economic and social
stability
• Ecological sustainability
• New Modelling shows that these goals are achieveable
Failure of Old Models
• GDP poor measure of success of economy- no asset base adjustment- measures goods and bads- blind to indebtedness- external costs not included
• Assumes substitution always possible
![Page 36: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
GNP vs Sustainable Economic Welfare Index
GNP
ISEW
1972
1990
(Source:Weizsacker, p.273)
![Page 37: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Canadian Study by Peter Victor
• Uses a fairly conventional econ. model
• Includes output, consumption, public spending, investment, employment, trade etc.
• Calibrated against statistical data
![Page 38: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Low-Growth Scenario for Canada: Collapse
![Page 39: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Low Growth Scenario for Canada: Resilience
![Page 40: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Difference between Collapse & Resilience
Collapse
• Focus of investment in private goods
• Investment and employment BAU
Resilience
• Focus of investment in public goods
• Unemployment falls by reducing work hours
![Page 41: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
New Macro-economy
Variables to include:
• Energy and resource dependency
• Value of environmental services and capital stocks
Investment in:• Resource productivity, • Renewable energy • Clean technologies,• Greening business• Climate adaption• Ecosystem maintenance
and protection
![Page 42: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Restructuring Consumerism• Dismantle perverse
incentives for unproductive status competition
• Provide structures to participate socially
• Government’s role is to reverse focus on individual “materialism”
Key Elements1. Building Sustainable
Macro-econ.
2. Protecting social capabilities
3. Respecting Ecological Limits
![Page 43: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Reflections and Criticisms• Is it just “frigging with the
rigging” of a fundamentally flawed system
• Global pressures probably demand ‘war’ like response
• Market information now Internet based – must be “educated” to assess good from bad
• Tax reform crucial – need to Tax the bads, not the goods.
• The Haves don’t want to relinquish material wealth
![Page 44: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
References
• Beder, S. (1993). The Nature of Sustainable Development. Newham, Scribe Publications. – what does sustainable development really mean?
• Beder, S. (2003). Power Plays. Scribe Publications. – expose of the failure of privatisation of the electricity industry in US, UK, Aust and Nz.
• • Cocks, D. (1996). People Policy. UNSW Press. – examines population policy in Australia & pros / cons.• • Diesendorf, M. (2007). Greenhouse Solutions with Renewable Energy. UNSW Press. – outlines viability of renewable energy
and energy efficiency as cost effective and environmental benign solution to energy concerns and the barriers to their uptake.
• • Ekins, P. et al (1992) Wealth Beyond Measure – An Atlas of New Economics. GAIA Books. - examines the basic flaws in the
economic rationalists approach and suggests pathways forward to account more fully for environmental and social costs.• • Hamilton, C. et al (2005) Affluenza. Allen and Unwin. – examines the impacts of our over-consumption of goods and
services, environmentally, socially and politically.• • Hawkins, P., Lovins, A & H (2000). Natural Capitalism. Allen and Unwin. (extract viewable at www.rmi.org) – gives pathway
forward for economic change based on resource efficiency and renewable energy. • • Homer-Dixon, T. (2006). The upside of down – catastrophe, creativity and the renewal of civilisation. Island Press. –
examines the large systemic stressors on civilisation and solutions.
• Foran,B & Poldy,F (2002). Futue Dilemmas – Options to 2050 for Australia’s population, technology, resources and environment. CSIRO Publishing. - key dilemmas facing continued BAU growth in Aust. Economy.
![Page 45: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
• Karlson et al (2005). The Natural Advantage of Nations. Earthscan. – examines sustainability and pathways forward for
business and countries. • Lenzsen, M. (1998). Primary energy and greenhouse gases embodied in Australian final consumption: an input-output
analysis. Energy Policy, Vol. 26, No. 6, pp. 498-506. • Meadows, D.L & D.H., Randers, J. (1992) Beyond the Limits. Earthscan Publications. – sequel to Club of Rome Report, “Limits
to Growth”. - revisits the trends and limits outlined in the original report with updated computer modelling.
• Mishel, L. (2007). State of Working America 2006-2007.
• Millenium Report of Secretary-General of the UN (2000). www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/ • Nielsen, R. (2005). The Little Green Handbook – A guide to critical global trends. Scribe Publications. – analysis of key statistics
global on population, resource use, climate, pollution etc. • O’Connor, M. Et al (2008). Overloading Australia – How government and media dither and deny on population. Envirobook.
• Pearce, D. (1991). Blue Print 1 & 2 , Greening the World Economy. Earthscan Publications. – examines the problems with current economic system and methods to change to account more fully for environmental and social costs.
• Victor, P. (2008). Managing without Growth – slower by design not disaster. Chleltenham: Edward Elgar. • Von Weizsacker, E., Lovins, A & H. (1997). Factor 4 – Doubling Wealth , Halving Resource Use. Allen and Unwin. – a report to
the Club of Rome on potential resource efficiency.
• Yencken, D and Wilkinson, D. (2000). Resetting the Compass – Australia’s journey towards sustainability. CSIRO publishing. – outlines the big ‘sustainability’ issues facing Australia.
![Page 46: Prof. Tim Jackson’s Report “Prosperity without Growth” – a review and critique](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081604/56816975550346895de1579c/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Internet Sites Alternative Technology Association www.ata.org.au Australian Building Greenhouse Rating www.abgr.com.au Australian Consumer Association www.choice.com.au Australian Government - Australian Greenhouse Office www.greenhouse.gov.au - ESD www.environment.gov.au/epcg/esd/integ.htm Australian and New Zealand Solar Energy Society www.anzses.org Centre for Alternative Technology www.cat.org.uk Clean Energy Council www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au Environmental Building News www.greenbuilding.com Environmental Defenders Fund www.edf.org Environmental Protection Agencies www.epa.gov; & www.epa.qld.gov.au Rocky Mountain Institute www.rmi.org The Australia Institute www.tai.org.au Magazines and Journals in the Library Choice - Australian Consumer Association quarterly magazine Eco-generation – Journal of Clean Energy Council of Australia ECOS – CSIRO journal Habitat - Australian Conservation Foundation quarterly magazine Renew - Alternative Technology Association quarterly magazine Solar Progress – Aust & NZ Solar Energy Soc. Quarterly magazine