prof. anthony patt, potsdam institute and boston university pablo suarez, boston university chiedza...
TRANSCRIPT
Prof. Anthony Patt, Potsdam Institute and Boston UniversityPablo Suarez, Boston UniversityChiedza Gwata, University of Zimbabwe
Seasonal Forecasts,Scientific Information,& Subsistence Farming
Research funded by the NOAA Office of Global Programs
Presentation at the September 2003 SARCOFLusaka, Zambia
1. Farmers didn‘t seem to understand the forecast.
2. Farmers didn‘t seem to trust the forecast.
3. Farmers didn‘t seem to use the forecast very much.
Observations
1. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
2. Could the forecasts be made more credible?
3. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Questions
Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
Experiment:a. Play a simple betting game 5 timesb. Play a different game that mimics realityc. Play the simple betting game again
Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
Experiment:a. Play a simple betting game 5 timesb. Play a different game that mimics realityc. Play the simple betting game again
Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
Psychological experiment:a. Play a simple betting game 5 timesb. Play a different game that mimics realityc. Play the simple betting game again
Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
Experiment:a. Play a simple betting game 5 timesb. Play a different game that mimics realityc. Play the simple betting game again
By the way, women did much better than men.
Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
Above Normal—25%
Above Normal—25%
Below Normal—45%
Below Normal—25%
El Niño Stays
El Niño Goes Away50%
50%
25% Above Normal 40% About Normal 35% Below Normal
About Normal—50%
About Normal—30%
Teaching method during workshop
Could the forecasts be made more credible?
Psychological experiment: three door game
lose
P(win) = 0.33
lose WIN!
P(win) = 0.67
Could the forecasts be made more credible?
What if:a. Somebody gives advice to switch?b. You have observed switching succeeding?c. The advisor has an incentive to help you win (wins same prize)?
lose
P(win) = 0.67
lose WIN!
P(win) = 0.67
Experiment: three door game
Could the forecasts be made more credible?
By the way, women did much better than men.
Experiment: three door game
If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Explain and work with information.
If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Listen to experiences on the ground.
If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Build networks with and involve local authorities.
If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Discuss major constraints, including climate.
If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Assist community to organize a sustainable process,+ examine whether worthwhile.
1. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
2. Could the forecasts be made more credible?
3. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Questions
1. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast?
2. Could the forecasts be made more credible?
3. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?
Questions
Yes, yes, and yes!