ENERGY ACCESS IN WEST AFRICA: ENERGY ACCESS IN WEST AFRICA:

CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARDCHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD**By

Prof. Abubakar S Sambo, OON, NPOM

(e-mail: assambo@gmail.com)

Vice-Chair for Africa of World Energy Council

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**Presentation at the Presentation at the ““1010thth Regional Meeting of the Afr Regional Meeting of the Afr ican Pacific Carribbean and European Union (ACPican Pacific Carribbean and European Union (ACP--EU) EU) Parliamentary AssemblyParliamentary Assembly”” , National Assembly Complex, , National Assembly Complex,

Abuja, 17Abuja, 17thth July,2013.July,2013.

OutlineOutline

• Introduction• Challenges of Energy Access inWest Africa

• The Way Forward • Conclusion

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Africa, The Dark ContinentAfrica, The Dark Continent

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1.1. IntroductionIntroduction The Economic Community of West

African States (ECOWAS) is a regional body of 15 member states namely: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bisau, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.

The total population of the 15 countries in 2011 stood at about 300 million (http://www.ecowas.int) representing about 40% of the total population of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Three of the member countries, Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire accounts for two-thirds of the population of the sub-region

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The population growth rate of the sub-region, estimated at 2.65% per annum is the highest in the world.

With this growth rate, the population of ECOWAS is projected to rise to about 320 million by 2015.

Currently 43% of the population resides in the urban areas. This is projected to increase to 50% by 2015.

A key feature of the sub-region is the uneven distribution of region’s natural resources among the countries in the region.

Similarly 65% of the region’s hydro-electricity potentials are located in Nigeria and Guinea.

Nigeria possesses about 80% of the region’s oil & gas and with recent oil discoveries in Niger, Ghana and Sierra Leone they hold the remaining 20%

There is a north to south reduction in solar energy potential in the region just like there is south to north decrease in biomass energy potential. Apart from some isolated locations wind energy is more intense along the coast.

1.1. IntroductionIntroduction …………………….. ContCont’’dd

South and central America

North America

Africa

Asia non OECD

Europe

China

EL 101*1 – April 2009

Source : AIE

CIS

World electricity generation 2006World electricity generation 2006

World total = 18 921 TWh

5134

3531

959

1658

588Middle East

682 2904

1679

Asia OECD

1786

World electricity production by source (TWh)

Coal 7756

Natural Gas 3807

Nuclear 2792

Hydro 3035

Oil 1096

Renewable 435

HydroelectricityHydroelectricity PotentialPotential in Africain Africa

Introduction Introduction ……………… ContdContd

West Africa and indeed the whole of Africa is endowed with energy resources of oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, tidal and wave energy in its territorial waters, which are unevenly distributed.

For example, oil and gas mainly in North Africa and the Gulf of Guinea; hydropower in Central and Eastern Africa; coal in Southern Africa; Geothermal energy mainly in East Africa; and highest winds in North and Southern Africa.

Africa is a continent of 55 countries, covering a land area of 30.1 million sq km constituting about 20.3% of total land area on Earth, and with a population of about 0.9334 billion people.

Introduction Introduction ……………… ContdContd

Despite all efforts to date the African energy poverty remainsunsolved.

While Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) makes up about 14% of the total population of developing countries, it accounts for about 40% of the world population without electricity access.

About 585 million people in SSA (about 70% of SSA’s population and 58% of Africa’s population) still lack access to electricity.

Additionally, about 653 million people (80% of SSA population)are relying on traditional biomass for cooking. (IEA, WEO 2010).

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Energy Access Challenges of West Africa

In SSA, only 4 countries have provided electricity access for more than half of their populations – Many countries have not yet reached 15% of electricity access.

Electricity Access Rates in SSA countries & North Africa –2009 (Source: IEA WEO 2010)

9975 61

51

49 47

45

42 42 37

3736

34

3226

25 2

019 19

17

16 16

15 14

12 11

9

9

7

99100

9080706050403020100

Energy Access Challenges of West Africa Energy Access Challenges of West Africa ……………………ContdContd

571

719

2782

13647

8485

1957

2470

0 5000 10000 15000

Africa

Asia

China

LAC

OECD

USA

World

(kWh/cap)

Electricity Consumption per capita (2008)

Source: data from IEA - WEO 2010

Low electricity consumption isa crucial challenge for Africa.

The world average electricityconsumption per capita is 2782kWh but for Africa it is 571 kWh.

A US citizen consumes 24 timesmore electricity than an African.

Energy Access Challenges of West Africa Energy Access Challenges of West Africa ………….Contd.Contd

Inadequate energy infrastructure on ground and its low local contents.

Inadequate indigenous human and manufacturing capacities.

Shortage of funds for the investments in energy development.

Inadequacy of appropriate national energy policies, plans and laws as well as regulatory mechanisms.

Lack of good governance and mutual confidence amongst African States.

THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD

To SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND THE ENERGY ACCESS OF WEST AFRICA for meaningful socio-economic growth will require the various Member States to:

- Produce a comprehensive scenario-based energy demandprojections using modern energy modeling tools on short, medium and long term time horizons and coveringthe major economic sectors. An example of this is the use ofthe IAEA developed Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) that was used to model the Nigerian energysector in four scenarios:

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THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD

Reference Growth ScenarioGDP grows by an average of 7% per annumThe main driver of growth is the manufacturing sectorManufacturing accounts for 15% of GDP by 2020Consistent with the MDGs objective of reducing poverty by halg by 2015

High Growth ScenarioGDP grows by an average of 10% p.a.Manufacturing contributes 22% to GDP by 2030Nigeria is transiting from an agrarian economy to an industrializing nation

Optimistic Growth Scenario IGDP grows by an average of 11.5% p.a.Manufacturing contributes 22% to GDP by 2030Nigeria is transiting from an agrarian economy to an industrializing nation

Optimistic Growth Scenario IIGDP grows by an average of 13% p.a.Manufacturing contributes 22% to GDP by 2030Nigeria is transiting from an agrarian economy to an industrializing nation 14

THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARDS e n a rio s 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030R e fe re n c e (7 % ) 5 ,7 4 6 1 5 ,7 3 0 2 8 ,3 6 0 5 0 ,8 2 0 7 7 ,4 5 0 1 1 9 ,2 0 0

H ig h G ro w th (1 0 % ) 5 ,7 4 6 1 5 ,9 2 0 3 0 ,2 1 0 5 8 ,1 8 0 1 0 7 ,2 2 0 1 9 2 ,0 0 0O p tim is tic I (1 1 .5 % ) 5 ,7 4 6 1 6 ,0 0 0 3 1 ,2 4 0 7 0 ,7 6 0 1 3 7 ,3 7 0 2 5 0 ,0 0 0

O p tim is tic II (1 3 % ), P re s id e n tia l P ro n o u n c e m e n t 5 ,7 4 6 3 3 ,2 5 0 6 4 ,2 0 0 1 0 7 ,6 0 0 1 7 2 ,9 0 0 2 9 7 ,9 0 0

E le c tric ity D em and P ro je c tio ns p e r S cenario

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

MW

R eference (7% )

H igh G row th (10% )

O p tim is tic I (11.5% )

O p tim is tic II (13% ),Pres ident ia lPronouncem ent

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THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD

- Produce comprehensive energy supply strategy based on:

- The outcome of the scenario-based national energy demand projections on all the economic sectors namely: industrial, transport, services and household

- The United Nation’s Sustainable Energy for All Initiative that calls for:

- * Universal access to modern energy services by 2030- * Doubling the share of renewable energy in national energy mix by 2030- * Doubling the energy efficiency thereby reducing energy intensity by 2030

- Support the trans-boundary projects of the African Union Commission under the aegis of the New Partnerships for African Development (NEPAD) which cover large-scale hydropower projects and regional interconnections.

- Support regional energy projects that are being conceived and implemented by regional groups like ECOWAS, ECCAS, EAC, SADC and AMU.

- Utilise reports of studies of the World Energy Council such as Issues Monitor and Energy Leaders Summits.

- Other national aspirations such as Nigeria’s commitment to be amongst the top 20 strongest economies of the world by year 2020.

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THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD

- Review national energy policies to:- Ensure that remote rural communities are catered for but

essentially to reform the energy sectors to make them market oriented with ample encouragement of the organised private sector to invest in the development of the national energy infrastructure.

- Adopt appropriate frameworks to promote the practical adoption of new energy technologies. This will include incentives to users and producers of new energy technologies as well as feed-in-tariffs.

- Strengthen the national energy regulatory frameworks to ensure orderly development of the sector and also to ensure international best practices are adopted on the issue of licences for new plants as well as evolvement of both cost-reflective tariffs and practical provisions for indigent groups.

- Ensure that the reviewed energy policies are passed into law by parliaments. This is necessary for the majority of African countries in view of the frequent unnecessary policy changes from one elected administration to the next one.

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5. THE WAY FORWARD5. THE WAY FORWARD

- Conduct annual monitoring of the effectiveness of the national energy

supply strategy by computing the Energy Development Index (EDI)to enable appropriate adjustments of the national energy strategies. The EDI was developed by the IEA to measure the role playedby energy in human development and to better track progress in respective countries transition to modern energy services. The

EDI is composed of the following:* Per capita commercial energy consumption * Per capita elecricity consumption * Share of modern fuels* Share of population with access to electricity

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THE WAY FORWARDTHE WAY FORWARD

CONCLUSION CONCLUSION

The energy access rate of West Africa is improving rather too slowly and a more effective strategy is necessary.

To significantly expand energy access in West Africa there is need for a fresh initiative consisting of:

– Production of scenario-based energy demand projections covering all sectors of national economies and on short, medium and long term time horizons.

– Production of comprehensive energy supply strategies using the demand projections and also using the UN’s Sustainable Energy for All Initiative, the AU’s NEPAD initiatives, the regional projects, WEC’s studies as well as other national visions.

– Making national energy policies robust, market oriented but with provisions for the under-priviledged and with practical incentives and feed-in-tariffs where necessary.

– The reviewed energy policies should be passed into law to minimise disruptions from one elected government to the next.

There is the need for all African counties to compute their Energy Development Indices to assess the effectiveness of their respective energy development strategies and thereby to effect appropriate amendments for future improvements.

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Lighting Up West AfricaLighting Up West Africa

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