production, consumption & ending stocks
TRANSCRIPT
Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors
Committee for the Common Organisation
of the Agricultural Markets
- Arable crops and olive oil -
30 September 2021
AGRI G.4
PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION & ENDING STOCKS
World production decreasing for the third consecutive marketing year
2 324 1 752 2 188 2 264 1 920 2 053
853
810
1 191 1 041
1 337 979
3 177
2 562
3 379 3 304 3 2563 031
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.)
WORLD OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2016/17-2020/21
Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.
thousand tonnes
WORLD -5% WORLD -2%
EU 7% EU -2%
non-EU -22% non-EU -2%
2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average
Production recovery in the EU in 2020/21…
EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average
…partly offsetting slowdown in non-EU countries.
Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.
Non-EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average
First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…
Production recovery in the EU in 2021/22
1 291 1 262 1 790 1 125 1 387 1 400
182429
174
366
274 300195
346185
275275 230
69
135100
141100 150
1752
2188 2264
1920 2053 2097
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.) 2021/22 (for.)
EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION
Other EU (0%) Portugal (+50%) Greece (-16%) Italy (+10%) Spain (+1%) Average 2016/17-2020/21
Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.
thousand tonnesforecast
EU production in 2021/22 expected 3% above 5-year average
Lower estimated EU availabilities in 2020/21
2 991
2 293
2 602
2 204
2 693
2 941 2 9562 843
2 326
2 1092 226
1 862
2 157 2 122
2 3152 370
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (est.) 2020/21 (for.)
EU OLIVE OIL AVAILABILITIES AND USES
Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU) Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)
thousand tonnes
Estimated EU ending stocks below average in 2020/21
894
455
631
177
359
322
531
783
631
474
0
200
400
600
800
1 000EU OLIVE OIL ENDING STOCKS
Ending stocks Average last five yearsNote: ending stocks on 30.9.; excl. olive pomace oil.
thousand tonnes
EU EXTRA-TRADE
Imports decreased in the first ten months of 2020/21…
volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)
Tunisia 99 784 75 93 203 74 188 757 88 127 849 86 -32.3
Syria 7 895 6 6 923 5 2 521 1 2 716 2 7.7
Morocco 6 858 5 13 719 11 5 126 2 4 913 3 -4.2
Turkey 6 362 5 5 126 4 7 431 3 3 907 3 -47.4
Argentina 5 014 4 2 912 2 4 927 2 4 357 3 -11.6
Utd. Kingdom 2 138 2 2 082 2 1 828 1 960 1 -47.5
Peru 805 1 812 1 2 737 1 1 503 1 -45.1
Others 3 763 3 1 714 1 2 175 1 2 757 2 26.8
Extra EU 132 618 126 492 215 503 148 962 -30.9
EU27 imports of olive oil from third countries (October - July)
2020/21Trade partner
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.
2019/202015/162017/18 2018/192016/172015/20 (5-year average)
…resulting from lower imports of EVOO and LOO, partly offset by higher imports of OPO.
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091020 (extra virgin)
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
EXTRA-EU OLIVE OIL IMPORTS, PER CATEGORY
Extra virgin (CN 15091020) Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)
Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)
Olive oil (CN 15099000) Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510)
Average previous 3 marketing years
tonnes
Imports from TN decreased for the fourth consecutive month
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL FROM TUNISIA
quota + out of quota Inward processing Average previous 3 MY (quota + out of quota) Average previous 3 MY (inward processing)
tonnes
65 444 56 199 121 580 106 118 216 767 125 212
Source: Eurostat COMEXT.
Imports from TN under zero duty quota fully allocated
Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. TAXUD EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.
Zero duty imports from Tunisia in 2021
Exports stable in the first ten months of 2020/21, compared to 2019/20…
volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)
United States 192 317 34 197 324 34 228 099 33 236 826 35 3.8
Brazil 51 535 9 57 879 10 76 288 11 74 658 11 -2.1
Utd. Kingdom 52 398 9 48 836 8 66 152 10 57 244 8 -13.5
Japan 47 805 8 55 664 10 57 274 8 47 304 7 -17.4
China 34 139 6 38 168 7 39 348 6 32 281 5 -18.0
Canada 24 381 4 23 179 4 29 924 4 28 062 4 -6.2
Australia 23 604 4 22 105 4 29 878 4 25 542 4 -14.5
Others 137 193 24 140 645 24 159 866 23 180 315 26 12.8
Extra EU 563 372 583 800 686 828 682 233 -0.7
2015/16
EU27 exports of olive oil to third countries (October - July)
2016/172017/18 2018/19 2019/20
Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.
2015/20 (5-year average)Trade partner
2020/21
……resulting from stable exports of EVOO, higher exports of OPO and lower exports for OO.
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20
OLIVE OIL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE EU, PER CATEGORY
Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510) Olive oil (CN 15099000)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080) Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Average previous 3 marketing years
tonnes
Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes
15091020 (extra virgin)
15091080 (virgin other than lampante)
EU INTRA-TRADE
Intra-trade broadly stable in 2020/21 (Oct.-Jun.)
(1000 tonnes)
TOTAL
Trade partner volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume
Spain 3.3 3.4 2.5 2.0 71.3 70.7 0.3 5.8 0.1 1.1 77.6
Italy 241.9 49.5 99.3 80.3 21.8 21.6 0.1 1.0 0.3 2.4 363.3
Greece 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.4
Portugal 119.5 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 119.7
France 70.1 14.4 26.5 27.3 1.8 1.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 22.8 104.6
Germany 14.7 3.0 37.7 38.8 10.9 8.8 0.9 0.9 2.8 49.1 1.7 14.1 68.6
Netherlands 13.8 2.8 3.7 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3 1.1 9.4 19.7
Belgium 6.0 1.2 3.2 3.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 1.6 28.5 0.9 7.8 13.0
Others 21.6 4.4 22.3 22.9 7.4 6.0 3.0 2.9 0.7 13.2 4.8 40.0 59.8
Total 488.3 100 97.2 100 123.6 100 100.9 100 5.6 100 12.1 100 827.7
Total same period
previous campaign470.6 92.3 111.5 107.6 5.5 12.2 799.7
Difference (y-o-y%) 3.8 5.3 10.9 -6.2 2.4 -1.1 3.5
France Others
EU intra-trade of olive oil (CN 1509) (October 2020 - June 2021)
Spain Greece
Period: 01/10/2020 - 30/06/2021. Olive oil excl. pomace oil. Source: COMEXT. All stat. regimes.
Origin (declared exports)
Italy Portugal
EU PRICES(until 16.09.2021)
EVOO: stable at high levels across Member States…
…reduced EVOO price divergence between IT and other origins since May 2021.
NEW!
VOO prices also stable across Member States
LOO prices stable across Member States
TABLE OLIVES
World production below average in 2020/21
887 842 913 859 771 848
1 6902 058
2 3682 029 2 184 1 854
2 5772 900
3 2802 888 2 955
2 702
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19(prov.)
2019/20(est.)
2020/21(for.)
WORLD TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2015/16-2019/20Source: International Olive Council.
thousand tonnes
WORLD -9% WORLD -7%
EU 10% EU -1%
non-EU -15% non-EU -10%
2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average
2020/21: production recovery in ES, broadly unchanged in EL
601 596 562 591458
546
194 180 261 199
222
230
887842
913 859
771
848
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19(prov.)
2019/20(est.)
2020/21(for.)
EU TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION
Other EU Portugal Italy Greece Spain EU EU average 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.
thousand tonnes
Spain 19% Spain -3%
Greece 4% Greece 9%
Italy -17% Italy -6%
Portugal -37% Portugal -32%
2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average
First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…
Trade balance broadly stable in 2020/21 (Sep.-Jul.)
117123
143 143 141143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Extra-EU imports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.)
Morocco Turkey Egypt Others Extra EU
thousand tonnes
377
414 401430
417423
0
100
200
300
400
500
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Extra-EU exports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.)
United States Saudi Arabia Russia Utd. Kingdom
Canada Others Extra EU
thousand tonnes
Source: Eurostat COMEXT.
US imports of Spanish table olives
Source: IHS Global Trade Atlas.
27
-9 -16-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Spain - Changes in export volumes of
table olives outside the EU (Sep. - Jul.)
United States Utd. Kingdom RussiaSaudi Arabia Canada Others
thousand tonnes
BRIQ
Market selling prices of raw olives(marketing year 2020/21)
Source: Member States communications.
Market selling prices of raw olives for table olives, national weighted average
(EUR per 100kg)
62.35 71.18 104.2081.00
Thank you
© European Union 2020
Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period
it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.
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Market informationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/plants-and-plant-products/plant-products/olive-oil
Agri-Food Data Portalhttps://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/home.html