production and trade of all meats to expand in 2016 · 2018. 9. 13. · production and trade of all...
TRANSCRIPT
United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
October 2015
Production and Trade of All Meats to Expand in 2016 Beef and Veal:
• Global production is forecast to rebound 1 percent higher to 59.2 million tons. Continuing herd expansion will drive production higher for major traders – particularly the United States, India, and Brazil. India continues to expand on growing foreign demand; exports account for 48 percent of production compared to only 18 percent for Brazil. Reduced slaughter will drive Australian production lower as inventories have been depleted and the return of favorable pasture conditions will spur herd rebuilding.
• Exports by major traders are forecast 3 percent higher to 9.9 million tons on stronger demand. Gains are expected for most major traders including India, Brazil, and the United States. India will remain the top exporter as demand improves in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Brazilian exports will rebound as a weaker real increases competitiveness and the reopening of the Chinese market creates new opportunities.
• U.S. production is expected to rise for the first time since 2010 as cattle inventories recover on improved pasture conditions and lower feed costs. Exports are forecast 6 percent higher as growing domestic supplies put downward pressure on prices. A reduction in Australian exports will enable the United States to regain market share in Asia which will offset stagnant shipments to Canada and Mexico.
Pork:
• Global production is forecast virtually unchanged at 112.0 million tons on marginal expansion by most countries. After three consecutive years of contraction, Chinese swine inventories are forecast stable in 2016 as lower feed costs and higher pork prices spur a slight increase in sows and improved efficiency (pigs per sow and industry consolidation). However, Chinese pork production will remain flat as a decline in slaughter offsets heavier weights. Russian production is higher on significant capacity investments, industry consolidation, stable feed prices and robust domestic demand.
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Global Beef Exports Rebound
Production Exports
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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India Widens Lead Over Brazil As Top Beef Exporter
Brazil India
• Exports by major traders are forecast 2 percent higher to nearly 7.3 million tons as robust supplies drive prices lower, stimulating consumption. Marginal increases in purchases by most major importers will more than offset a further decline in imports by Russia. Among key suppliers, only the United States will undergo significant export expansion.
• U.S. production is forecast up 1 percent to a record 11.3 million tons on continued strong recovery from PEDv. Exports are forecast over 4 percent higher to 2.4 million tons as competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly Mexico.
Broiler Meat:
• Global production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 89.3 million tons on expansion by all major traders. After surpassing China to become the second largest producer in 2015, Brazil is expected to continue expanding more rapidly due to stable feed costs and increased exports. India, the fastest growing producer, is expected to increase 8 percent on rising demand by a growing middle class.
• Exports by major traders are forecast to rebound 4 percent to a record 10.7 million tons. Shipments will increase by the top three suppliers, Brazil, the United States, and the EU, which account for more than three quarters of world trade. Exports will be driven by robust supplies placing downward pressure on prices, lower prices compared to other animal proteins, and a weak euro and Brazilian real. Although constrained by lower oil prices and weak economic growth, many smaller markets will have marginal improvements in demand.
• U.S. production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 18.4 million tons on heavier
weights and lower feed costs. Exports are expected to rebound 8 percent to 3.2 million tons as lower prices and greater exportable supplies bolster shipments.
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016M
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Global Pork Exports Increase 2 Percent
Production Exports
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Broiler Meat Exports Increase
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U.S. Broiler Meat Exports Rebound
Production Exports
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Chinese Pork Production Stalls; Rest of World Expands
China Rest of World
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
October 2015
Contents
Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork and Broiler Meat
Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports
Beef
Beef Summary Tables
Cattle Summary Tables
Pork
Pork Summary Tables
Swine Summary Tables
Poultry Meat
Broiler Meat Summary Tables
Notes to Readers
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (p) 2016 (f)
Percent
Change
2015 to
2016
Beef and Veal 58,160 58,527 59,467 59,746 58,443 59,196 1.3%
Pork 103,581 106,868 108,823 110,566 111,458 111,962 0.5%
Broiler Meat 81,159 83,282 84,494 86,549 87,944 89,336 1.6%
Total 242,900 248,677 252,784 256,861 257,845 260,494 1.0%
Beef and Veal 56,517 57,047 57,785 57,708 56,466 57,006 1.0%
Pork 103,170 106,260 108,360 110,044 110,944 111,226 0.3%
Broiler Meat 79,835 81,640 82,987 84,952 86,276 87,376 1.3%
Total 239,522 244,947 249,132 252,704 253,686 255,608 0.8%
Beef and Veal 6,451 6,679 7,489 7,900 7,559 7,711 2.0%
Pork 6,558 6,858 6,597 6,358 6,438 6,466 0.4%
Broiler Meat 8,228 8,540 8,689 8,893 8,639 8,693 0.6%
Total 21,237 22,077 22,775 23,151 22,636 22,870 1.0%
Beef and Veal 8,072 8,138 9,126 9,990 9,601 9,926 3.4%
Pork 6,955 7,268 7,027 6,873 7,145 7,259 1.6%
Broiler Meat 9,573 10,087 10,255 10,470 10,231 10,688 4.5%
Total 24,600 25,493 26,408 27,333 26,977 27,873 3.3%
Beef and Veal 1,263 1,112 1,174 1,167 1,035 1,100 6.3%
Pork 2,357 2,440 2,262 2,203 2,268 2,370 4.5%
Broiler Meat 3,165 3,299 3,332 3,312 2,990 3,221 7.7%
Total 6,785 6,851 6,768 6,682 6,293 6,691 6.3%
Beef and Veal 16% 14% 13% 12% 11% 11%
Pork 34% 34% 32% 32% 32% 33%
Broiler Meat 33% 33% 32% 32% 29% 30%
Combined 28% 27% 26% 24% 23% 24%
Summary:
Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat
Production
Consumption
Notes: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not
encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent
the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported
changes periodically.
U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders
Imports
Exports
U.S. Exports
Beef and Veal, Pork: 1,000 Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat: 1,000 Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Special Article: Review of U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas for Beef Imports
Background on U.S. Beef Trade
The United States is the world’s largest producer of beef, but also imports more than any other
country. U.S. producers specialize in raising high-valued grain-fed cattle, while imports largely
consist of lower-value grass-fed lean product that is processed into ground beef. Overall,
imports accounted for slightly more than 10 percent of beef supplies in 2014.
From 2010-2013, the United States was a net exporter of beef on a volume-basis. However,
imports surpassed exports in 2014 as domestic production declined nearly 6 percent. Falling
production was triggered by severe drought in the Southern plains and high feed prices which
caused farmers to reduce their herds between 2009 and 2014. Reductions in the cow inventory
led to lower production of lean (non-fed) beef increasing demand for lean processing meat.
Lower supplies have led beef prices to accelerate, but demand has been resilient. Rising imports
of both processing beef and table cuts have offset some, but not all, of the lower production.
Elevated cattle prices and improved pasture conditions have spurred expansion in the cattle
sector beginning in 2015 with beef production forecast to increase next year. However, in the
short-term, cow slaughter will be lower as producers retain beef cows for herd rebuilding and
this continues to support demand for imported lean beef.
Beef imports1 totaled $5.3 billion (957,000 tons product weight) in 2014 and exports totaled $6.3
billion (859,000 tons). While imports exceeded exports on volume-basis, the value of exports
was greater due to higher average unit values of exports (grain-fed beef) than imports (lean
processing beef).
Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System
Top Suppliers of Imported Beef
Australia was the leading supplier of U.S. beef imports in 2014, while Canada and New Zealand
were a distant second and third. The bulk of shipments from Australia and New Zealand are
frozen boneless beef for processing. Shipments from Canada and Mexico are typically higher-
valued fresh/chilled product and include beef sold as cuts.
1 Beef imports include fresh, chilled and frozen muscle cuts under HS headings 0201 and 0202 and exclude
processed and prepared products which are not subject to U.S. tariff rate quotas.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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2014: Imports of Beef Exceed Exports,
First Time in 5 Years due to tight U.S. supplies
Imports
Exports
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System
Sanitary Requirements for U.S. Beef Imports
Obtaining U.S. beef market access is a multi-step process. Countries must first be approved by
the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) based on animal disease status. APHIS
assesses the risks of introducing animal diseases as a result of trade. In addition, the Food Safety
Inspection Service (FSIS) certify that foreign food regulatory systems employ equivalent
sanitary measures to U.S. standards. Currently, 11 countries are eligible to ship fresh or frozen
beef2to the United States: Australia, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland,
Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, and Uruguay.
U.S. Tariff Rate Quotas and Imports of Beef in 2014
U.S. Imports 1/ Tariff-rate quota
Quota fill-
rate
Rate of duty
Country In-quota Above-quota
Tons Million dollars Tons Percent
Canada 189,614 $1,085 Unlimited NA 0% NA
Mexico 108,106 $781 Unlimited NA 0% NA
TRQ countries
Argentina 0 $0 20,000 0% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%
Australia 344,629 $2,011 418,2142/
82% 0% 21.1%
Japan 143 $12 200 71% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%
New Zealand 186,248 $960 213,402 87% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%
Uruguay 19,162 $154 20,000 96% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%
Other 3/ 55,585 $288 64,805 86% 4.4 cents/kg 26.4%
Total TRQs 605,767 $5,293 716,621 85%
1/ Imports include fresh/chilled and frozen beef only. Prepared and processed products are not subject to TRQs. Volumes are published by
Customs and Border Protection, value is published by U.S. Census Bureau. 2/ Australia’s total TRQ includes a WTO quota of 378,214 plus an FTA quota of 40,000 tons. Excludes 4,000 tons at reduced tariff.
3/ The Other TRQ is open to other countries that do not have a country-specific quota.
Sources: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; FAS Global Agricultural Trade System; U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015.
2 For more information on requirements, see http://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/portal/fsis/topics/international-
affairs/importing-products.
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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Top Suppliers of U.S. Beef Imports,
Australia Widens Lead Over Canada
Other
Mexico
New Zealand
Canada
Australia
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
U.S. World Trade Organization (WTO) Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs)
As a result of the 1995 WTO Uruguay Round Agreement, the United States adopted a system of
TRQs for imports of beef. The two-tiered system allows a specified volume of imports per
calendar year at a lower (or zero) rate of duty and assigns a higher tariff rate to volumes above-
quota. Two types of U.S. TRQs were established through WTO negotiations:
Country-Specific TRQs: Created for Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Uruguay, and
Argentina (see table).
Other Countries TRQ: Provides preferential-duty access for other countries that are
eligible to ship beef to the United States.
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) TRQs
TRQs are also created via FTAs, which are typically established as a transitional step towards
duty-free access. The following agreements expanded beef market access into the United States:
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): As of January 2008, NAFTA was
fully implemented, resulting in duty-free and unlimited access for beef among the United
States, Canada and Mexico. Canada and Mexico are among the top suppliers of U.S.
beef imports, accounting for over a third of shipments in 2014.
Australia: Australia received additional quota access in its 2005 FTA with the United
States adding to its WTO quota of 378,214 tons. The agreement allowed supplemental
duty-free access of 15,000 tons in the second year after enactment with a further 5,000
tons added annually or biannually. An additional quota with a reduced duty rate of 21
percent allows 3,500 tons in the first year and rising to 7,000 tons in 2022. In 2015 and
2016, total duty-free quota access is 418,214 tons with a further 4,000 tons at reduced-
duty. Unlimited duty-free access begins in 2023.
CAFTA-DR: The 2004 Dominican Republic-Central America FTA (CAFTA-DR)
established preferential quotas for each of the 6 parties: Costa Rica, the Dominican
Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua (see table). FTA TRQs are
contingent on first filling of the WTO Other Countries quota – currently available to
Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua – which has yet to happen. Currently, these three
members are eligible to ship beef to the United States and imports totaled $287 million in
2014. Since the agreement was signed, beef imports from CAFTA-DR countries have
risen to nearly 60,000 tons in 2014. In 2020, CAFTA-DR countries will have duty-free
unlimited access.
CAFTA-DR Tariff Rate Quotas
Partners 2014 U.S. Beef Imports FTA TRQs
(2015)
Million dollars Tons Tons
Costa Rica $47 9,631 15,054
Dominican Republic $0 0 2,400
El Salvador $0 0 150
Guatemala $0 0 0
Honduras $15 3,013 750
Nicaragua $226 46,366 15,000
Total of CAFTA-DR $287 59,010 33,354
Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Other FTAs: Access has also been extended to the following countries through their
respective U.S. FTAs: Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Morocco, Oman, Panama, and
Singapore. TRQs are granted during the initial period of implementation and become
unlimited at full implementation. At this time, only Chile is currently eligible to ship
beef to the United States.
Beef Access from Free Trade Agreements
Partner
2015 FTA
TRQs (Tons)
First Year of
Implementation
Full Implementation
(Unlimited Access)
Bahrain Unlimited 2006 2015
Chile Unlimited 2004 2007
Colombia 6,078 2012 2021
Morocco 21,350 2006 2020
Oman 26,573 2009 2018
Panama 439 2012 2026
Singapore Unlimited 2004 2013 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission Harmonized Tariff Schedule 2015
WTO Other Countries TRQ
Eligible countries without a country-specific quota can access the “other countries” TRQ of
64,805 tons. Currently, 5 countries (Costa Rica, Honduras, Iceland, Ireland, and Nicaragua) use
the quota, which provides a preferential duty rate of 4.4 cents per kilogram. Imports above
64,508 must pay the full tariff of 26.4 percent ad valorem.
In 2014, the “other countries quota” reached a fill-rate of 86 percent for the six eligible countries
(see figure), reflecting strong U.S. import demand. The fill-rate has climbed steadily over the
past 10 years from a low of 45 percent in 2005. Once the WTO quota fills, country-specific
TRQs from enacted FTAs will take effect, allowing an additional 33,000 tons for CAFTA-DR
countries. As agreements are fully implemented, FTA partners will receive unlimited access,
reducing pressure on the other countries TRQ.
Quota Allocation
The United States does not intervene in quota allocation; rather this is at the discretion of the
exporting countries. For example, some countries distribute licenses to exporters. Australia
maintains a system by which the quota is filled first-come first-served until reaching a fill-rate of
85 percent. The remaining 15 percent is allocated based on historical quota use3. The “other
countries” quota is first-come first-serve among the eligible countries.
3 For more information on Australia’s quota allocation system, please see:
http://www.agriculture.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/ag-food/quota/red-meat/2014/us-beef-2014-order.pdf
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Future U.S. Market Access
If additional countries receive APHIS and FSIS approval to ship fresh/frozen beef, competition
for the other countries quota is likely to accelerate, at least in the short-term. Under the current
scenario, if a new country becomes eligible, such as Brazil, imports could either displace
shipments from other countries or be imported at the above-quota tariff rate. After 2020,
competition by existing countries for the other countries TRQ will lessen as CAFTA-DR is fully
implemented. Nicaragua, which accounted for over 70 percent of quota use in 2014, will have
unlimited access, creating opportunities for other shippers. Further quota expansion could be
obtained through future WTO negotiations (such as further Doha Round discussions) or future
FTAs.
For more information contact | Lindsay Kuberka | [email protected], (202) 644-
4650, USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Global Commodity Analysis Division
Fill-rate =
82%
87%
0% 96%
86%
Unlimited Unlimited
0
100
200
300
400
Canada Mexico Australia New Zealand Argentina Uruguay Other
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U.S. Beef Imports and Quota Fill-Rates in 2014
Imports TRQ
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Production
9,6009,4259,7239,6759,3079,030 Brazil
7,5607,5407,4437,3887,7088,114 European Union
6,7856,7506,8906,7306,6236,475 China
4,5004,2004,1003,8003,4913,308 India
2,6802,7402,7002,8502,6202,530 Argentina
2,3002,5502,5952,3592,1522,129 Australia
1,8651,8451,8271,8071,8211,804 Mexico
1,7751,7251,6751,6301,5871,536 Pakistan
1,3001,3551,3701,3801,3801,360 Russia
9751,0251,0991,0491,0601,141 Canada
8,4678,4279,2489,0488,9308,750 Others
47,80747,58248,67047,71646,67946,177 Total Foreign
11,38910,86111,07611,75111,84811,983 United States
59,19658,44359,74659,46758,52758,160 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
7,8907,8707,8967,8857,8457,730 Brazil
7,6207,6107,5157,5207,7608,034 European Union
7,4507,3507,2977,0526,6806,449 China
2,4152,5102,5032,6642,4582,320 Argentina
2,3252,2002,0182,0352,0802,040 India
2,0252,0472,2892,3932,3982,346 Russia
1,7301,7651,8391,8731,8361,921 Mexico
1,7061,6611,6171,5761,5381,503 Pakistan
1,2151,2101,2261,2321,2551,237 Japan
901894875805844816 Colombia
10,0589,94911,39111,14210,61410,475 Others
45,33545,06646,46646,17745,30844,871 Total Foreign
11,67111,40011,24211,60811,73911,646 United States
57,00656,46657,70857,78557,04756,517 Total
Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,
Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the
forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Imports
7357009291,0231,027994 Russia
727740739760737745 Japan
7006004174129929 China
500450646473241152 Hong Kong
454400392375370431 Korea, South
370370372376348365 European Union
285290284296301282 Canada
285270270195250217 Egypt
250235205194174167 Malaysia
230200241245187180 Chile
1,7941,7452,0682,1201,9381,956 Others
6,3306,0006,5636,4695,6725,518 Total Foreign
1,3811,5591,3371,0201,007933 United States
7,7117,5597,9007,4896,6796,451 Total
none
Total Exports
2,1752,0002,0821,7651,4111,268 India
1,7751,6251,9091,8491,5241,340 Brazil
1,6251,8151,8511,5931,4071,410 Australia
598590579529517503 New Zealand
410400389326251197 Paraguay
395360350340360320 Uruguay
370375378332335426 Canada
310300300244296445 European Union
300245194166200148 Mexico
265230197186164213 Argentina
603626594622561539 Others
8,8268,5668,8237,9527,0266,809 Total Foreign
1,1001,0351,1671,1741,1121,263 United States
9,9269,6019,9909,1268,1388,072 Total
Notes: May contain meat of other bovines. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d'Ivoire,
Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the
forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Cattle Beg. Stks
301,600301,100300,600299,606300,000302,500 India
219,093213,035207,959203,273197,550190,925 Brazil
100,250100,450103,000103,434103,605106,264 China
88,60088,38887,61987,10687,05487,831 European Union
51,99551,54551,54551,09549,59748,156 Argentina
26,15027,60029,29029,00028,50627,550 Australia
18,66519,15219,56419,93020,13419,970 Russia
16,45017,12017,76018,52120,09021,456 Mexico
12,06312,05311,90311,38411,23211,241 Uruguay
11,93011,92012,22012,30512,24512,155 Canada
31,78632,28764,05266,10168,06470,023 Others
878,582874,650905,512901,755898,077898,071 Total Foreign
92,90089,80088,52690,09591,16092,887 United States
971,482964,450994,038991,850989,237990,958 Total
none
Production (Calf Crop)
68,00067,00066,00065,00063,50062,500 India
49,05049,00047,90048,80048,00044,500 China
48,25048,22049,60050,18549,69049,445 Brazil
29,25029,30029,30029,05029,80030,100 European Union
14,00013,70013,30014,00013,70013,100 Argentina
9,5009,5009,56410,2009,1219,614 Australia
6,9256,8506,7506,7006,8006,900 Mexico
6,4066,5206,6706,8206,9207,239 Russia
5,1505,1785,4404,9234,9264,786 New Zealand
4,3754,4004,6064,5164,4624,640 Canada
10,02010,18514,51214,91414,74814,649 Others
250,926249,853253,642255,108251,667247,473 Total Foreign
35,00034,30033,90033,73034,46935,357 United States
285,926284,153287,542288,838286,136282,830 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela are excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year
conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Cattle Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Imports
2201702001009570 Egypt
20010023098117103 China
8068749714395 Russia
403545485673 Canada
252028301016 Mexico
8911121412 Japan
3310005 Brazil
000001 Argentina
000000 Australia
011121 Belarus
00566715619339 Others
5764061,1651,1011,056715 Total Foreign
2,0502,2252,3582,0332,2832,107 United States
2,6262,6313,5233,1343,3392,822 Total
none
Total Exports
1,2001,3001,1761,0451,5391,435 Mexico
1,1001,2001,298851620695 Australia
9251,0251,2451,044821696 Canada
600600499504678689 European Union
300300649689512405 Brazil
1401601404178213 Uruguay
5542301124 Ukraine
252279334234 New Zealand
202020192629 China
2020271496 Russia
118623630262 Others
4,3864,6905,2494,4874,6294,268 Total Foreign
8080108161191194 United States
4,4664,7705,3574,6484,8204,462 Total
Notes: May contain other bovines. From 2015, Colombia and Venezuela and excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year
conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Production
56,50056,37556,71054,93053,42750,604 China
22,90023,00022,53322,35922,52622,953 European Union
3,5103,4513,4003,3353,3303,227 Brazil
2,7802,6302,5102,4002,1752,064 Russia
2,4752,4502,4252,3492,3072,262 Vietnam
1,8801,8401,8051,8221,8441,817 Canada
1,3901,3701,3531,3401,3101,288 Philippines
1,3851,3351,2901,2841,2391,202 Mexico
1,2901,2701,2641,3091,2971,267 Japan
1,2301,2101,2001,2521,086837 Korea, South
5,3085,3695,7065,9185,7735,729 Others
100,648100,300100,19698,29896,31493,250 Total Foreign
11,31411,15810,37010,52510,55410,331 United States
111,962111,458110,566108,823106,868103,581 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
57,14057,20057,16955,40653,80251,108 China
20,58220,66220,38120,14720,38220,822 European Union
2,9792,9293,0243,2673,2393,035 Russia
2,9312,8872,8462,7512,6702,644 Brazil
2,5402,5452,5432,5492,5572,522 Japan
2,4372,4122,3892,3152,2752,238 Vietnam
2,1952,1251,9911,9561,8501,710 Mexico
1,8571,8201,7371,6281,5461,487 Korea, South
1,6091,5791,5521,5111,4461,432 Philippines
928898875892906919 Taiwan
6,6196,5476,8877,2737,1466,916 Others
101,817101,604101,39499,69597,81994,833 Total Foreign
9,4099,3408,6508,6658,4418,337 United States
111,226110,944110,044108,360106,260103,170 Total
Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Pork Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Imports
1,2501,2701,3321,2231,2591,254 Japan
960920818783706594 Mexico
850845761770730758 China
625600480388502640 Korea, South
400380347399414432 Hong Kong
250230191183194175 Australia
220210200172138145 Philippines
210220214220240204 Canada
2003005158681,077971 Russia
1351301179810597 Singapore
9128319261,0941,129924 Others
6,0125,9365,9016,1986,4946,194 Total Foreign
454502457399364364 United States
6,4666,4386,3586,5976,8586,558 Total
none
Total Exports
2,3302,3502,1662,2272,1652,150 European Union
1,2101,2101,2181,2461,2431,197 Canada
580565556585661584 Brazil
250250277244235244 China
200185163164180139 Chile
1501301171119586 Mexico
454025464 Serbia
403837363641 Australia
404040403632 Vietnam
14128533 South Africa
305763103168118 Others
4,8894,8774,6704,7654,8284,598 Total Foreign
2,3702,2682,2032,2622,4402,357 United States
7,2597,1456,8737,0277,2686,955 Total
Note: From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica,
North Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a
month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Beginning Stocks
420,200465,830474,113475,922468,627464,600 China
147,500148,310146,172146,982149,809152,361 European Union
40,15039,39538,84438,57738,33636,652 Brazil
20,12519,40519,08118,81617,25817,231 Russia
13,30013,16512,94012,61012,62512,615 Canada
10,20010,0909,9129,9168,1718,449 Korea, South
9,6009,7009,7759,5109,2769,007 Mexico
9,5909,4409,5379,6859,7359,768 Japan
7,3007,5137,9227,5777,3737,960 Ukraine
2,6502,9243,2674,2433,9893,887 Belarus
2,3002,3082,0982,1382,2852,289 Others
682,915728,080733,661735,976727,484724,819 Total Foreign
68,02567,77664,77566,22466,25964,725 United States
750,940795,856798,436802,200793,743789,544 Total
none
Production (Pig Crop)
705,000667,000729,927720,971707,427670,196 China
263,000264,000261,750257,000257,600264,655 European Union
39,75038,65037,00036,00034,50030,650 Russia
39,63539,05038,47037,90037,70037,750 Brazil
28,00027,85027,07827,37628,34728,500 Canada
19,00017,85017,60017,80017,15016,975 Mexico
17,35017,10016,81216,95316,34013,308 Korea, South
17,20017,15017,05017,35017,25017,000 Japan
9,0009,3009,5279,4658,5388,109 Ukraine
5,2505,1504,8505,3255,7755,425 Belarus
4,8504,8504,9854,7374,5814,659 Others
1,148,0351,107,9501,165,0491,150,8771,135,2081,097,227 Total Foreign
122,975120,203114,856115,135116,655115,086 United States
1,271,0101,228,1531,279,9051,266,0121,251,8631,212,313 Total
Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Swine Selected Countries Summary
(in 1,000 head)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Imports
505014103112 Mexico
302622231225112 Ukraine
553123 Canada
335315 Belarus
229242015 China
221121 European Union
22221116 Korea, South
11886340782 Russia
000000 Australia
000112 Brazil
001111 Others
959165360634949 Total Foreign
5,0005,5254,9474,9485,6565,795 United States
5,0955,6165,0125,3086,2906,744 Total
none
Total Exports
5,0505,5504,9604,7845,6765,821 Canada
1,6001,7001,7371,6841,6431,563 China
6005805685697411,010 European Union
232426 Brazil
000000 Australia
00052103113 Belarus
000000 Japan
000000 Korea, South
000000 Mexico
000000 Russia
001011 Others
7,2527,8337,2687,0938,1668,514 Total Foreign
484719345630 United States
7,3007,8807,2877,1278,2228,544 Total
Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Production
13,48013,08012,69212,30812,64512,863 Brazil
13,10013,02513,00013,35013,70013,200 China
10,84510,60010,3309,9109,5659,320 European Union
4,2003,9003,7253,4503,1602,900 India
3,6503,5503,2603,0102,8302,575 Russia
3,1603,1003,0252,9072,9582,906 Mexico
2,1002,0602,0502,0602,0141,770 Argentina
1,9901,9801,9561,9241,7071,619 Turkey
1,6501,6501,5701,5001,5501,350 Thailand
1,6401,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia
15,15615,40816,07715,54914,99214,447 Others
70,97169,97869,25067,51866,66164,465 Total Foreign
18,36517,96617,29916,97616,62116,694 United States
89,33687,94486,54984,49483,28281,159 Total
none
Total Dom. Consumption
12,98512,88012,83013,17413,54313,016 China
10,37510,1609,9069,4989,1989,010 European Union
9,6049,3449,1378,8299,1399,422 Brazil
4,1933,8923,7163,4453,1562,891 India
3,9223,8533,7383,5823,5683,474 Mexico
3,7353,7753,6763,5203,3563,013 Russia
2,2502,2452,2262,2092,2142,105 Japan
1,8761,8611,7731,7291,7231,556 Argentina
1,6651,6351,5721,5561,5821,503 South Africa
1,6401,6251,5651,5501,5401,515 Indonesia
19,89820,01020,77920,20419,27518,670 Others
72,14371,28070,91869,29668,29466,175 Total Foreign
15,23314,99614,03413,69113,34613,660 United States
87,37686,27684,95282,98781,64079,835 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and
Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for
that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary
1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oct
none
Total Imports
875900888854877895 Japan
850900775838750745 Saudi Arabia
770760722682616578 Mexico
720710709671727734 European Union
710690722673610598 Iraq
440420369355371326 South Africa
380360299272300410 Hong Kong
260240365321301287 Angola
260250260244254238 China
235210186182196134 Cuba
3,1403,1413,5453,5423,4873,234 Others
8,6408,5818,8408,6348,4898,179 Total Foreign
535853555149 United States
8,6938,6398,8938,6898,5408,228 Total
none
Total Exports
3,8803,7403,5583,4823,5083,443 Brazil
1,1901,1501,1331,0831,0941,044 European Union
570580546504538467 Thailand
375395430420411422 China
360340379337284206 Turkey
225200278334295224 Argentina
1901801671417542 Ukraine
140130137150141143 Canada
10012011310510574 Belarus
1009587889390 Chile
337311330279244253 Others
7,4677,2417,1586,9236,7886,408 Total Foreign
3,2212,9903,3123,3323,2993,165 United States
10,68810,23110,47010,25510,0879,573 Total
Notes: Chicken paws are excluded. From 2015, the following countries are excluded: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and
Moldova. From 2016, Venezuela is excluded. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for
that year was released.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Notes to Readers
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of
the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and broiler meat trade.
Exclusions Beginning in 2015:
Cattle: Colombia and Venezuela.
Beef: Albania, Azerbaijan, Cote d’Ivoire, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, Senegal and Uzbekistan.
Pork: Albania, Armenia, Congo (Brazzaville), Gabon, Georgia, Ghana, Jamaica, North
Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Switzerland and Trinidad and Tobago.
Broiler Meat: Bahrain, Georgia, Iran, Jamaica and Moldova.
Exclusions Beginning in 2016:
Pork: Venezuela
Broiler Meat: Venezuela
Data Modifications Prior to 2014:
Cattle/Beef:
The cattle PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 1990-
2013 period on additional official production data available: Belarus
The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1991-
2013 period on additional/revised official production data available: Algeria, Australia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Colombia, Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d’Ivoire, Dominican Republic, El
Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Oman, Peru, Saudi
Arabia, Taiwan, and United States.
The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2001-
2013 period on additional/revised trade data available: Azerbaijan, Dominican Republic,
Ghana, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Vietnam, and United States.
Swine/Pork:
The swine PSD for the following country are revised for particular years during the 1990-
2013 period on additional official production data available: Belarus
The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1996-
2013 period due to additional/revised official production data: Angola, Belarus, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Brazil, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Macau, New
Zealand, Norway, Serbia, South Africa and the United States.
The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2010-
2013 period due to additional/revised official trade data: Armenia, Bahamas, Ghana,
Jamaica, Serbia.
Broiler Meat:
The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the
1992-2013 period on additional production data available: Belarus, Malaysia, South Africa,
Taiwan, and Vietnam.
The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the
2000-2013 period on additional trade data available: Angola, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait,
Philippines, and the United States.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis
Assumptions
Diseases: Forecast reflects disease (avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalopathy,
etc.) policies and restrictions in place as of October 9, 2015 and assumes their continuation.
Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork
Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30
HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201
Frozen: 0202
Processed: 021020 & 160250
Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319
Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329
Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249
Broiler Meat Turkey Meat
Conversion Rate 1 1
HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13
Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14
Processed: 1602.32
Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35
Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36
Processed: 1602.31
Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included.
Technical Notes
CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE)
unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal
after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of
the meat product exported.
FAS Reports from Overseas Offices
The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted
since January 2015 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can
be obtained on FAS Online at: http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx.
PSD Online
The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.
Additional Resources
Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/livestock-and-meats for additional data and analysis.
Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the
USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ldpm-livestock,-
dairy,-and-poultry-outlook/.
Future Releases and Contact Information
Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view
archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in April 2016.
To receive the circular via email, go to:
https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new.
Questions may be directed to the following staff:
Lindsay Kuberka (202) 644-4650 [email protected] Cattle and Beef
Tyler Cozzens (202) 690-2993 [email protected] Swine and Pork
Joanna Hitchner (202) 720-0746 [email protected] Poultry Meat
Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 [email protected] Cross-Commodity Analyst
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis