production and operations management ch. 16: project management 1 pom - j. galván

PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS OPERATIONS

MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT

Ch. 16: Project ManagementCh. 16: Project Management

11POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván

POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván 22

Strategic Importance ofStrategic Importance of Project Management Project Management

Bechtel Kuwait Project:Bechtel Kuwait Project:• 8,000 workers8,000 workers• 1,000 construction professionals1,000 construction professionals• 100 medical personnel100 medical personnel• 2 helicopter evacuation teams2 helicopter evacuation teams• 6 full-service dining halls6 full-service dining halls• 27,000 meals per day27,000 meals per day• 40 bed field hospital40 bed field hospital


Strategic Importance ofStrategic Importance of Project Management - Project Management -

continuedcontinued Microsoft Windows 98 ProjectMicrosoft Windows 98 Project::

• hundreds of programmershundreds of programmers• millions of lines of codemillions of lines of code• millions of dollars costmillions of dollars cost

Ford Redesign of Mustang Project:Ford Redesign of Mustang Project:• 450 member project team450 member project team• Cost $700-millionCost $700-million• 25% faster and 30% cheaper than 25% faster and 30% cheaper than

comparable project at Fordcomparable project at Ford


Single unitSingle unit Many related activitiesMany related activities Difficult production planning and Difficult production planning and

inventory controlinventory control General purpose equipmentGeneral purpose equipment High labor skillsHigh labor skills

Project CharacteristicsProject Characteristics


Building constructionBuilding construction

© 1995 Corel Corp.

An ExampleAn Example


Research project Research project



New product introductionNew product introduction

19 · Nude Sandalfoot19 · Nude Sandalfoot

Medium to Tall (B)Medium to Tall (B)

No nonsenseNo nonsense

Sheer to waist pantyhose

New! Improved!

New! Improved!

© 1995 Corel Corp.


What is a project?What is a project? A project is A project is unique/nonrepetitiveunique/nonrepetitive.. A project has a specific A project has a specific beginning, goal, purposebeginning, goal, purpose, ,

and and endend.. Thus a project is also Thus a project is also temporarytemporary.. Projects must be given Projects must be given specific resourcesspecific resources.. Projects usually cross Projects usually cross functional linesfunctional lines and are and are

organizedorganized as a as a matrixmatrix.. Projects are for use by others: the Projects are for use by others: the usufructuaryusufructuary

and the and the useruser.. Projects generate Projects generate systemic conflictsystemic conflict.. Projects are “Projects are “open veins” open veins” from which the entity from which the entity

loses blood and where infection enter.loses blood and where infection enter.POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván 88

Formal definitionFormal definition

A project is usually a one-time activity A project is usually a one-time activity • With a well-defined set of desired end results. With a well-defined set of desired end results. • It can be divided into subtasks that must be It can be divided into subtasks that must be

accomplished in order to achieve the project goals. accomplished in order to achieve the project goals. • The project is complex enough that the subtasks require The project is complex enough that the subtasks require

careful coordination and control in terms of timing, careful coordination and control in terms of timing, precedence, cost, and performance.precedence, cost, and performance.

• The project itself must often be coordinated with other The project itself must often be coordinated with other projects being carried out by the same parent projects being carried out by the same parent organization.organization.



Management of Large ProjectsManagement of Large Projects PlanningPlanning - goal setting, project - goal setting, project

definition, team organizationdefinition, team organization SchedulingScheduling - relating people, money, - relating people, money,

and supplies to specific activities and and supplies to specific activities and activities to one and otheractivities to one and other

ControllingControlling - monitoring resources, - monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revising costs, quality, and budgets; revising plans and shifting resources to meet plans and shifting resources to meet time and cost demandstime and cost demands


Project Planning, Scheduling,Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling and Controlling

Project Planning1. Setting goals2. Defining the project3. Tying needs into timed project activities4. Organizing the team

Project Scheduling1. Tying resources to specific activities2. Relating activities to each other3. Updating and revising on a regular basis

Time/cost estimatesBudgetsEngineering diagramsCash flow chartsMaterial availability details

CPM/PERTGantt chartsMilestone chartsCash flow schedules

Project Controlling1. Monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets2. Revising and changing plans3. Shifting resources to meet demands

Reports• budgets• delayed activities• slack activities

Before Project During Project


Establishing Establishing objectivesobjectives

Defining projectDefining project Creating work Creating work

breakdown structure breakdown structure Determining Determining

resourcesresources Forming organizationForming organization

© 1995 Corel Corp.

Project PlanningProject Planning

Project planning processProject planning process OverviewOverview – a short summary of objectives and scope – a short summary of objectives and scope ObjectivesObjectives – a more detailed statement of the general goals – a more detailed statement of the general goals General approachGeneral approach – managerial and technical approaches – managerial and technical approaches

to the workto the work Contractual aspectsContractual aspects – contractual reporting and – contractual reporting and

requirementsrequirements SchedulesSchedules – schedules and all milestone events – schedules and all milestone events ResourcesResources – budget and cost monitoring and control – budget and cost monitoring and control

proceduresprocedures PersonnelPersonnel – expected personnel requirements and their – expected personnel requirements and their

skillsskills Evaluation methodsEvaluation methods – procedure for monitoring and – procedure for monitoring and

evaluatingevaluating Potential problemsPotential problems – preparation for problems – preparation for problems



Acct.

Eng. Eng.Mkt.

Mgr.

Project OrganizationProject Organization

Often temporary structureOften temporary structure Uses specialists from entire companyUses specialists from entire company Headed by project managerHeaded by project manager

• Coordinates activities Coordinates activities • Monitors scheduleMonitors schedule

& costs & costs Permanent Permanent

structure called structure called ‘matrix organization’‘matrix organization’


A Sample Project A Sample Project OrganizationOrganization

Sales

President

FinanceHumanFactors

EngineeringQualityControl

Production

TechnicianTest

EngineerPropulsionEngineer

Physiologist

ProjectManager

PsychologistStructuralEngineer

InspectionTechnician

Technician

Project 1

Project 2

ProjectManager


Mkt Oper Eng Fin

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4

Matrix OrganizationMatrix Organization


The Role ofThe Role of the Project Manager the Project Manager

Project Planand Schedule

Revisions andUpdates

ProjectManager

ProjectTeam

TopManagementResources

PerformanceReports

Informationregarding times,costs, problems,

delays Feedback Loop


Work Breakdown StructureWork Breakdown Structure

1.1. ProjectProject

2.2. Major tasks in the projectMajor tasks in the project

3.3. Subtasks in the major tasksSubtasks in the major tasks

4.4. ActivitiesActivities


Sequencing activitiesSequencing activities Identifying precedence Identifying precedence

relationshipsrelationships Determining activity times Determining activity times

& costs& costs Estimating material & Estimating material &

worker requirementsworker requirements Determining critical Determining critical

activitiesactivities

JF

MA

MJ

J

MonthActivity

Design

Build

Test

PE

RT

Project SchedulingProject Scheduling


Gantt chartGantt chart Critical Path Method Critical Path Method

(CPM)(CPM) Program Evaluation & Program Evaluation &

Review Technique (PERT)Review Technique (PERT)

Project Scheduling Project Scheduling TechniquesTechniques


J F M A M J J

Time PeriodActivity

Design

Build

Test

Gantt ChartGantt Chart


Project Control ReportsProject Control Reports

Detailed cost breakdowns for each taskDetailed cost breakdowns for each task Total program labor curvesTotal program labor curves Cost distribution tablesCost distribution tables Functional cost and hour summariesFunctional cost and hour summaries Raw materials and expenditure forecastsRaw materials and expenditure forecasts Variance reportsVariance reports Time analysis reportsTime analysis reports Work status reportsWork status reports


Network techniquesNetwork techniques Developed in 1950’sDeveloped in 1950’s

• CPM by DuPont for chemical plantsCPM by DuPont for chemical plants• PERT by U.S. Navy for Polaris missilePERT by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile

Consider precedence relationships Consider precedence relationships and interdependenciesand interdependencies

Each uses a different estimate of Each uses a different estimate of activity timesactivity times

PERT and CPMPERT and CPM


Questions Which May Be Questions Which May Be Addressed by PERT & CPMAddressed by PERT & CPM

Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule?or behind schedule?

Is the project over or under cost budget?Is the project over or under cost budget? Are there enough resources available to finish Are there enough resources available to finish

the project on time?the project on time? If the project must be finished in less than the If the project must be finished in less than the

scheduled amount of time, what is the way to scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost?accomplish this at least cost?


The Six Steps Common to The Six Steps Common to PERT & CPMPERT & CPM

1 Define the project and all of its significant activities or Define the project and all of its significant activities or taskstasks

2 Develop relationships among the activities. (Decide Develop relationships among the activities. (Decide which activities must precede and which must follow which activities must precede and which must follow others.)others.)

3 Draw the network connecting all of the activitiesDraw the network connecting all of the activities4 Assign time and cost estimates to each activityAssign time and cost estimates to each activity5 Compute the longest time path through the network. Compute the longest time path through the network.

This is called the critical pathThis is called the critical path6 Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and

control the projectcontrol the project


224 Years4 Years

Activity Activity (Arrow)(Arrow)

RegisterRegisterReceive diplomaReceive diploma

Project: Obtain a college degree (B.S.)Project: Obtain a college degree (B.S.)

Event (Node)Event (Node)

Attend class, Attend class, study etc.study etc.

11

Event (Node)Event (Node)

Network TermsNetwork Terms


11AA

BB

A & B can occur A & B can occur concurrentlyconcurrently

22

33

Activity RelationshipsActivity Relationships


11 44

22

33

AA

BB

CC

A must be done before A must be done before C & D can beginC & D can begin DD



11 44

22

33

AA

BB EE

CC

B & C must be done B & C must be done before E can beginbefore E can begin

DD



Activities are defined often by beginning & Activities are defined often by beginning & ending eventsending events• Example: Activity 2-3Example: Activity 2-3

Every activity must have unique pair of Every activity must have unique pair of beginning & ending eventsbeginning & ending events• Otherwise, computer programs get confusedOtherwise, computer programs get confused

Dummy activities maintain precedenceDummy activities maintain precedence• Consume no time or resources Consume no time or resources

Dummy ActivitiesDummy Activities


1111 444433331-21-2

2-32-3IncorrectIncorrect

1111 44442222

3333

5555

22222-32-3

3-43-4

1-21-2

2-32-3

2-42-4 4-54-5

3-4: Dummy 3-4: Dummy activityactivity

CorrectCorrect

Dummy Activity ExampleDummy Activity Example


3 time estimates3 time estimates• Optimistic times (Optimistic times (aa))• Most-likely time (Most-likely time (mm))• Pessimistic time (Pessimistic time (bb))

Follow beta distributionFollow beta distribution Expected time: Expected time: tt = ( = (aa + 4 + 4mm + + bb)/6)/6 Variance of times: Variance of times: vv = ( = (bb - - aa))22/6/6

PERT Activity TimesPERT Activity Times


Provides activity informationProvides activity information• Earliest (Earliest (ESES) & latest () & latest (LSLS) start) start• Earliest (Earliest (EFEF) & latest () & latest (LFLF) finish) finish• Slack (Slack (SS): Allowable delay): Allowable delay

Identifies critical pathIdentifies critical path• LongestLongest path in networkpath in network• ShortestShortest time project can be completedtime project can be completed• Any delay on activities delays projectAny delay on activities delays project• Activities have 0 slackActivities have 0 slack

Critical Path AnalysisCritical Path Analysis


Begin at starting event & work forwardBegin at starting event & work forward ES = 0 for starting activitiesES = 0 for starting activities

• ES is earliest startES is earliest start EF = ES + Activity timeEF = ES + Activity time

• EF is earliest finishEF is earliest finish ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for non-ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for non-

starting activitiesstarting activities

Earliest Start and Finish StepsEarliest Start and Finish Steps


Begin at ending event & work backwardBegin at ending event & work backward LF = Maximum EF for ending activitiesLF = Maximum EF for ending activities

• LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finishLF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish LS = LF - Activity timeLS = LF - Activity time

• LS is latest startLS is latest start LF = Minimum LS of all successors for non-LF = Minimum LS of all successors for non-

ending activitiesending activities

Latest Start and Finish StepsLatest Start and Finish Steps


1111 4444

2222

3333

Pour Pour foundation & foundation & frameframe

3 wk.3 wk.

3 wk.3 wk.

4 wk.4 wk.

2 wk.2 wk.6 wk. 6 wk.

Do interior Do interior workwork

LandscapeLandscape

RoofRoof

Buy Buy shrubs etc.shrubs etc.

Critical path is longest path: 12 weeks.Critical path is longest path: 12 weeks.

Critical Path in NetworkCritical Path in Network


1-2 Fdn & frame1-2 Fdn & frame1-3 Buy shrubs1-3 Buy shrubs2-3 Roof2-3 Roof2-4 Interior work2-4 Interior work3-4 Landscape3-4 Landscape

44 55 66 77 88 99 1100

1111

1122332211ActivityActivity

Build House ProjectBuild House Project

Gantt ChartGantt ChartEarliest Start and FinishEarliest Start and Finish


1-2 Fdn & frame1-2 Fdn & frame1-3 Buy shrubs1-3 Buy shrubs2-3 Roof2-3 Roof2-4 Interior work2-4 Interior work3-4 Landscape3-4 Landscape

44 55 66 77 88 99 1100

1111

1122332211ActivityActivity

Build House ProjectBuild House Project

Gantt Chart Gantt Chart Latest Start and FinishLatest Start and Finish


Expected project time Expected project time ((TT))• SumSum ofof critical path critical path

activity times, activity times, tt

Project variance (Project variance (VV))• Sum of critical path Sum of critical path

activity variances, activity variances, vv

Used to obtain probability of project completion!

Project TimesProject Times

An exampleAn example

St. Adolf’s Hospital setupSt. Adolf’s Hospital setup


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalImmediate

Activity Description Predecessor(s)

ASelect administrative and medical staff.BSelect site and do site survey.CSelect equipment.DPrepare final construction plans and layout.EBring utilities to the site.FInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing,

support staff, maintenance, and security.GPurchase and take delivery of equipment.HConstruct the hospital.IDevelop an information system.JInstall the equipment.KTrain nurses and support staff.




ASelect administrative and medical staff.—BSelect site and do site survey.—CSelect equipment.ADPrepare final construction plans and layout.BEBring utilities to the site.BFInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing,

support staff, maintenance, and security.AGPurchase and take delivery of equipment.CHConstruct the hospital.DIDevelop an information system.AJInstall the equipment.E,G,HKTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J

Example 4.14242POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván



ASelect administrative and medical staff.—BSelect site and do site survey.—CSelect equipment.ADPrepare final construction plans and layout.BEBring utilities to the site.BFInterview applicants and fill positions in nursing,support staff, maintenance, and security.AGPurchase and take delivery of equipment.CHConstruct the hospital.DIDevelop and information system.AJInstall the equipment.E,G,HKTrain nurses and support staff.F,I,J

AON Network


ImmediateActivity Description Predecessor(s)


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s Hospital

AON Network

Start

A





AON Network

Start

A

B





AON Network

Start

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

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AON Network

Start

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AON Network

FinishStart

A

B

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G

H

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J

K

Figure 4.25555POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván




Completion Time





Completion Time

FinishStart

K6

I15

F10

C10

D10

E24

G35

H40

J4

A12

B9

Figure 4.45757POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván




Completion Time

FinishStart

K6

I15

F10

C10

D10

E24

G35

H40

J4

A12

B9





Completion Time

FinishStart

K6

I15

F10

C10

D10

E24

G35

H40

J4

A12

B9

Path Expected Time (wks)

A-F-K 28A-I-K 33A-C-G-J-K 67B-D-H-J-K 69B-E-J-K 43





Completion Time

FinishStart

K6

I15

F10

C10

D10

E24

G35

H40

J4

A12

B9





Figure 4.5



Earliest StartandEarliest Finish Times

A

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Earliest start time Earliest finish time

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Example 4.2

FinishStart




Finish

Earliest start time Earliest finish time

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Critical path

Start



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Latest StartandLatest Finish Times

FinishStart




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22 57

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63 69 Latestfinishtime

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59 63Latest StartandLatest Finish Times

FinishStart



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14 24 24 59

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35 59

59 63

Earliest start time Earliest finish timeLatest start time Latest finish time

Critical path

FinishStart


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalGantt charts


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalGantt Charts



A

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Activity Slack Analysis

FinishStart




Start

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14 24 24 59

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35 59

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Finish




Start

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35 59

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Activity Slack

Slack = LS – ES

or

Slack = LF – EF

Finish




Start

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Activity Slack

SlackK = 63 – 63

or

SlackK = 69 – 69

Finish




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Activity Slack

SlackK = 0

or

SlackK = 0

Finish




Start

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Finish




Start

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Node DurationES LS Slack

Finish




Start

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A 12 0 2 2B 9 0 0 0C 10 12 14 2D 10 9 9 0E 24 9 35 26F 10 12 53 41G 35 22 24 2H 40 19 19 0I 15 12 48 36J 4 59 59 0

K 6 63 63 0Finish



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H

40

19 5919 59

J

4

59 6359 63

K

6

63 6963 69

Critical Path


A 12 0 2 2BB 99 00 00 00C 10 12 14 2DD 1010 99 99 00E 24 9 35 26F 10 12 53 41G 35 22 24 2HH 4040 1919 1919 00I 15 12 48 36JJ 44 5959 5959 00

KK 66 6363 6363 00Finish



C

10

G

35

E

24

I

15

F

10

12 27

12 22

22 57

9 33

12 22

48 63

53 63

14 24 24 59

35 59

B

9

0 90 9

D

10

9 199 19

H

40

19 5919 59

J

4

59 6359 63

K

6

63 6963 69

Critical Path

A

12

0 122 14

FinishStart


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalActivity Slack



8000 —

7000 —

6000 —

5000 —

4000 —

3000 —

0 —

Dir

ect

cost

(d

olla

rs)

| | | | | |5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Time (weeks)

Cost-Time Relationships in Cost Analysis



8000 —

7000 —

6000 —

5000 —

4000 —

3000 —

0 —

Dir

ect

cost

(d

olla

rs) Crash cost (CC)

Normal cost (NC)

| | | | | |5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Time (weeks)(Crash time) (Normal time)




8000 —

7000 —

6000 —

5000 —

4000 —

3000 —

0 —

Dir

ect

cost

(d

olla

rs) Crash cost (CC)

Linear cost assumption

Normal cost (NC)

| | | | | |5 6 7 8 9 10 11





8000 —

7000 —

6000 —

5000 —

4000 —

3000 —

0 —

Dir

ect

cost

(d

olla

rs)

5200

Crash cost (CC)

Linear cost assumption

Normal cost (NC)

Estimated costs for a 2-week reduction, from 10 weeks to 8 weeks

| | | | | |5 6 7 8 9 10 11




St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalMaximum

Normal Normal Crash Crash Time Cost ofTime Cost Time Cost ReductionCrashing per

Activity (NT) (NC) (CT) (CC) (wk) Week

A 12 $ 12,000 11 $ 13,000 1 $ 1,000B 9 50,000 7 64,000 2 7,000C 10 4,000 5 7,000 5 600D 10 16,000 8 20,000 2 2,000E 24 120,000 14 200,000 10 8,000F 10 10,000 6 16,000 4 1,500G 35 500,000 25 530,000 10 3,000H 40 1,200,000 35 1,260,000 5 12,000I 15 40,000 10 52,500 5 2,500J 4 10,000 1 13,000 2 1,000K 6 30,000 5 34,000 1 4,000

Totals $1,992,000 $2,209,000105105POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván

St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalMinimum-Cost Schedule

A-I-K: 33 weeks B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeksA-F-K: 28 weeks B-E-J-K: 43 weeksA-C-G-J-K: 67 weeks

Total cost = $2,624,000Indirect costs = $8,000/weekPenalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65





Minimum-Cost Schedule





Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 69 weeksCrash Activity J by 3 weeks @ $1,000/week







3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000







3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000





Total cost = $2,624,000 $2,543,000Indirect costs = $8,000/weekPenalty cost = $20,000/week after week 65


3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000



St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalMinimum Cost Schedule




3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D10

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J1

K6






3($28,000) – 3($1,000) = $81,000$2,624,000 – $81,000 = $2,543,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D10

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K6





Critical Path B-D-H-J-K: 66 weeksCrash Activity D by 2 weeks @ $2,000/week







$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000







$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D10

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K6






$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D88

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K6





Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 64 weeksCrash Activity K by 1 week @ $4,000/week







$8,000 – $4,000 = $4,000$2,511,000 – $4,000 = $2,507,000







$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D88

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K6






$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D88

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K55



Critical Paths B-D-H-J-K and A-C-G-J-K: 63 weeksCrash Activities B and C by 2 weeks @ $7,000/week and $600/week









2($8,000) – 2($7,600) = $800$2,507,000 – $800 = $2,506,200







$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B9

C10

D88

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K55






$28,000 + $8,000 – 2($2,000) = $32,000$2,543,000 – $32,000 = $2,511,000

FinishStart

A12

B77

C88

D88

E24

F10

G35

H40

I15

J11

K55



A F

I

C G Finish

D

E

HB J

K

Start

Probabilistic Time Estimates



Activity B

MostOptimistic Likely Pessimistic

(a) (m) (b)7 8 15


A F

I

C G Finish

D

E

HB J

K

Start



Activity B


(a) (m) (b)7 8 15


te = = 9 weeks7 + 4(8) + 15

6

A F

I

C G Finish

D

E

HB J

K

Start



Activity B


(a) (m) (b)7 8 15


te = = 9 weeks7 + 4(8) + 15

6

2 = = 1.78( )15 - 76

2

A F

I

C G Finish

D

E

HB J

K

Start



Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected VarianceActivity (a) (m) (b) Time (te ) (2 )

Time Estimates (wk) Activity Statistics



Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Expected VarianceActivity (a) (m) (b) Time (te ) (2 )

Time Estimates (wk) Activity Statistics

A 11 12 13 12 0.11B 7 8 15 9 1.78C 5 10 15 10 2.78D 8 9 16 10 1.78E 14 25 30 24 7.11F 6 9 18 10 4.00G 25 36 41 35 7.11H 35 40 45 40 2.78I 10 13 28 15 9.00J 1 2 15 4 5.44K 5 6 7 6 0.11


St. Adolf’s HospitalSt. Adolf’s HospitalProbabilities

Critical Path = B - D - H - J - K

T = 72 days TE = 69 days



2 = (variances of activities) z = T –TE

2

Probabilities





2 = (variances of activities) z = T – TE

2

2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89

Probabilities






2

2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89

z =72 – 69 11.89

Probabilities






2

2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89

z = = 0.8772 – 69 11.89

Probabilities






2

2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89

z = = 0.8772 – 69 11.89

Probabilities



From Appendix 2Pz = .8078 .81



2 = (variances of activities) z = T - TE

2

2 = 1.78 + 1.78 + 2.78 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 11.89

z = = 0.8772 - 69 11.89

Probabilities



Project duration (weeks)

69 72

Probability of meeting the schedule is 0.8078

Length of critical path

Normal distribution: Mean = 69 weeks; = 3.45 weeks

Probability of exceeding 72 weeks is 0.1922

Figure 4.12




2

2 = 0.11 + 2.78 + 7.11 + 5.44 + 0.11 = 15.55

z = = 1.2772 – 67 15.55

Probabilities

Path = A - C - G - J - K


From Appendix 2Pz = .8980 .90



A F

I

C G Finish

D

E

HB J

K

Start



Activity Duration Earliest Start Latest Start Slack

C 10 16 14 –2G 35 26 24 –2J 4 61 59 –2K 6 65 63 –2D 10 10 9 –1H 40 20 19 –1E 24 10 35 25I 15 16 48 32F 10 16 53 37


Project Life CycleProject Life Cycle



Start Finish

Reso

urc

e r

equir

em

en

ts

Time147147POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván


Definition and

organization

Planning Execution Close out

Start Finish

Reso

urc

e r

equir

em

en

ts

TimeFigure 4.13 148148POM - J. GalvánPOM - J. Galván

production and operations management ch. 16: project management 1 pom - j. galván

Documents

project slide

project planning

project definition

project goals

comparable project

timed project activities

team project scheduling

member project team