processor quarterly market monitor

From Technologies to Markets

© 2021

Processor Quarterly Market

Monitor

Computing Service 2021

Sample

2

Apple, Arm, AMD, Global Foundries, Google, HiSilicon, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Lenovo, LG, MediaTek, Meizu, Nvidia, NXP, OPPO, Qualcomm, Samsung, SMIC, Sony, Spreadtrum,

Texas Instruments, TSMC, UMC, UniSOC, Vivo, Xiaomi, XMC, ZTE

Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021

COMPANIES MONITORED IN THE PRODUCT

http://www.yole.fr/

3

PROCESSOR MONITOR EVOLUTION

Processor Monitor

APU – Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, APU-based PC, SmartTV, Smartspeaker, AR, VR, Automotive infotainment

CPU, GPU

FPGA

Module II

Module III

Publication Date

Released

2021 Q2

Module I Released


http://www.yole.fr/

4

Market overview

o 2020-2026 Market dynamics

o Revenue

o Shipments

o Pricing

o Quarterly revenue – near & long term

o CAPEX

Market shares

o APU quarterly market shares

• Smartphone, Tablet, Smartwatch, Notebook, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, Auto Infotainment

o CPU quarterly market shares

• Client Notebook, Client Desktop, Server

o GPU quarterly market shares

• Client Notebook & Desktop, Server

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pricing

o Pricing, near & long term

o Pricing by segment

o Pricing per unit area

o Pricing per transistor

Technology

o APU designer die size trend

o APUs with embedded AI accelerators

o APUs by memory interface

o Average die size by segment

Production

o Quarterly wafer output

o Annual wafer output

o Wafers by logic node

o Units by logic node

o Foundry revenue

o Foundry revenue per wafer


http://www.yole.fr/

5

John Lorenz

John Lorenz is a Technology and Market Senior Analyst within the Computing & Software division at Yole Développement (Yole). After holding various

positions within Micron Technology including engineering, strategic and finance roles, John is daily engaged in the development of market and

technology monitors for the logic segment of advanced semiconductors at Yole. John has a Bachelor of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from

the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (USA), with a focus on MEMS devices.

Contact: [email protected]

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Biographies & contacts

Tom Hackenberg

Tom Hackenberg is a Principal Analyst for Computing and Software in the Semiconductor, Memory and Computing Division at Yole Développement(Yole). Tom is engaged in developing processor market monitors and research into related technology trends. He is currently focused on low and ultralow power. Tom is an industry leading expert with more than a decade’s experience reporting on markets for semiconductor processors. Tom is also well-versed in related technology trends including IoT, heterogeneous processing, chiplets, AI and edge computing.

Tom holds a BSECE from the University of Texas at Austin.

Contact : [email protected]


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mailto:[email protected]

6

NEAR-TERM DYNAMICS


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LONG-TERM DYNAMICS


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© 2020 | www.yole.fr | 8

APU MARKET DYNAMICS

$10b $0b $35b $37b $44b $48b $50b $55b $59b $64b-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

reve

nue (

bill

ions

USD

)

Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast Y/Y Unit growth Y/Y ASP growth

• Near term: seasonally weak Q1-20 and COVID-19 impacts are overlapped to place H1-20 revenue just 3% above H1-19. Production volume

outpaced demand, keeping system builds afloat. Assuming a return to pre-COVID trajectories in mid-2021.

• Long term: Following the bounce back of demand in 2021, expecting modest unit and ASP growth to combine for growing APU revenues,

nearing $50B by 2023

“APU Market Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue for end-systems tracked in this monitor: Smartphone,

Tablet, APU-based Notebook, Smartwatch, Smartspeaker, SmartTV, AR, VR, and Automotive Infotainment

http://www.yole.fr/

9

APU MARKET PRICING

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

ASP ASP Y/Y


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10

APU QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM

“Revenue” is APU designers’ revenue


-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20re

venue (

$b)

Apple Samsung Qualcomm HiSilicon MediaTek UniSoC Other Forecast

http://www.yole.fr/

11

Client product revenues will continue to decline with the PC market as a whole

o Enthusiasts will still seek high performing components, which may richen up the ASPs, but will havecompetition from ARM-based solutions on the low end

QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM CLIENT (CPU+GPU)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16re

venue (

$b)

Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast

Client revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for desktop and laptop systems


http://www.yole.fr/

12

Growth expected in datacenter as the cost to product premium DC processors will continue to climb,and as more DC integrate GPU solutions for cloud gaming and AI training & inference

QUARTERLY REVENUE: LONG TERM SERVER (CPU+GPU)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18re

venue (

$b)

Intel AMD Nvidia Forecast

Server revenue combines x86-based CPU and GPU revenues for all server applications, including HPC, cloud services, and traditional enterprise


http://www.yole.fr/

13

6%

21%

33%

6%

2%

5%

-8%-6%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

capital

expendit

ure

($b)

TSMC Intel Samsung SMIC GF Total Y/Y growth

FOUNDRY AND LOGIC CAPEX

Only includes the capex for APUs tracked within this monitor: smartphone, tablet, and

smartwatch. As more devices are added to the monitor, the tracked capex will adjust to reflect.Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021

http://www.yole.fr/

14

PRICE PER UNIT

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

ASP ASP % change


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15

APU PRICE BY SEGMENT

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet


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16


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All APU Smartwatch Notebook AR VR SmartSpeaker Auto Infotainment Tablet All Smartphone


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17


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All Smartphone Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablet


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18

CPU PRICE BY SEGMENT


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All CPU Desktop Notebook Server

http://www.yole.fr/

19

GPU PRICE BY SEGMENT


2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

unit)

All GPU Client Server

http://www.yole.fr/

20

PRICE PER BILLION TRANSISTORS

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

ASP

($ p

er

Bn T

r)

Price per BnTr Y/Y %


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21

APUS CONTAINING EMBEDDED AI ACCELERATORS

Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

perc

ent

of units

Luxury High End Mid Tier Entry level Tablets Total

Embedded Accelerators: important emerging feature that places upward pressure on future die sizes

trends

See also Yole’s report: Artificial Intelligence Computing for Consumer 2019 Processor Quarterly Market Monitor | Sample | www.yole.fr | ©2021

http://www.yole.fr/

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/artificial-intelligence-computing-for-consumer-2019/

22

APUS BY MEMORY INTERFACE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


perc

ent

of units

LPDDR2 LPDDR3 LPDDR4 LPDDR4X LPDDR5 DDR3


http://www.yole.fr/

23

NON-SMARTPHONE APU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE

All Smartphone

Smartwatch

Notebook

SmartSpeaker

SmartTV

Auto Infotainment

AR

VR


die

siz

e (

mm

2)


http://www.yole.fr/

24

CPU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE



die

siz

e (

mm

2)

Notebook Desktop Server All CPU

http://www.yole.fr/

25

GPU: AVERAGE DIE SIZE



die

siz

e (

mm

2)

Client Server All GPU

http://www.yole.fr/

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Wafer production will increase as APU designers prioritize performance over cost reductions

INDUSTRY WAFER PRODUCTION


Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21 Q3-21 Q4-21 Q1-22 2023 2024 2025 2026

waf

er

pro

duct

ion (

k w

pm

-300m

m e

quiv

)

APU CPU GPU

Industry 2020-2026 CAGR: 3.3%

http://www.yole.fr/

© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 27

APU WAFERS BY NODE


waf

er

pro

duct

ion (

k w

pm

, 300m

m e

quiv

)

3-4nm 5-6nm 7-8nm 10nm 12-16nm 20nm 28nm 45nm Avg Node (wafer basis)


http://www.yole.fr/

© 2020 | www.yole.fr | APU Market Monitor | Q4 2020 28

CPU+GPU WAFERS BY NODE



waf

er

pro

duct

ion (

k w

pm

, 300m

m e

quiv

)

3 nm 5 nm 7 nm 10 nm 12 nm 14 nm 20 nm 22 nm Avg Node (wafer basis)

http://www.yole.fr/

29

FOUNDRY REVENUE PER WAFER


reve

nue p

er

waf

er

($)

Foundry revenue is front-end wafer processing services only. Samsung includes LSI and foundry.


http://www.yole.fr/

30

PROCESSOR MARKET FORECAST


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31

Contact our

Sales Team

for more

information

DRAM & NAND QuartelyMarket Monitor

Cameras and Computing for Surveillance and Security 2020

(x)PU: High-End CPU and GPU for Datacenter Applications 2020

Advanced Packaging Quarterly Market Monitor


YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS

Yole Développement

http://www.yole.fr/

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/?fwp_product_cat=monitors&fwp_post_thematic=memory

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/xpu-high-end-cpu-and-gpu-for-datacenter-applications-2020/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/cameras-and-computing-for-surveillance-and-security-2020/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/?fwp_product_cat=monitors&fwp_post_thematic=memory

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/advanced-packaging-quarterly-market-monitor/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/xpu-high-end-cpu-and-gpu-for-datacenter-applications-2020/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/advanced-packaging-quarterly-market-monitor/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

https://www.i-micronews.com/products/cameras-and-computing-for-surveillance-and-security-2020/?pk_campaign=r_monitor_APU_March2021&pk_medium=relatedreports_Sample

32

Contact our

Sales Team

for more

information

Teardown Tracks


YOLE GROUP OF COMPANIES RELATED REPORTS

System Plus Consulting

http://www.yole.fr/

https://www.reverse-costing.com/

https://www.reverse-costing.com/

33

Yole Group of Companies, including Yole Développement,

System Plus Consulting and PISEO, are pleased to provide

you a glimpse of our accumulated knowledge.

We invite you to share our data with your own network,

within your presentations, press releases, dedicated

articles and more, but you first need approval from Yole

Public Relations department.

If you are interested, feel free to contact us right now!

We will also be more than happy to give you updated data

and appropriate formats.

Your contact: Sandrine Leroy, Dir. Public Relations

Email: [email protected]

HOW TO USE OUR DATA?

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34About Yole Développement | www.yole.fr | ©2020

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