CONTENTS

Foreword 1

L M Bartlett, Loughborough University

Reliability Analysis Including Load Flow and Power Demand in Power System 3

A. B. Svendsen, T. Digernes, Y. Aab0 and J. Eman, Troll Power AS

Wind Power Modeling and the Determination of Capacity Credit in an Electric 18

Power SystemR. Billinton and D. Huang, University of Saskatchewan

An Investigation into Using Oil Replenishment Data as a Factor to Prioritise the 30

Replacement of Extra High Voltage Electrical Cable

S. Blake, P. Taylor, P. Tavner and G. Howarth, Durham University and CE

Electric UK

Assessing Systems Reliability: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Approach 42

M. Morcos, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Systems EngineeringInnovation Centre (SEIC), Loughborough University

An Argument-Based Approach to the Integration of Safety and Design 55

K. Attwood, P. Wilkinson and T. Kelly, University of York and Rolls-Royce Civil

Aerospace Controls

A New Approach for the Analysis of the Near Misses in the Framework of the 65

Safety Management SystemP. Agnello, S. Ansaldi, P. Bragatto and P. Pittiglio, Italian Institute for

Occupational Safety and Prevention

Integrating Safety into System Design with SysML 78

P. Wilkinson, M. Novak and A. Mavin, Rolls-Royce PLC

The Development of a Unique Report for Performance Monitoring in an Airline 90

Safety Management SystemM. C. Leva, J. Cahill, A. M. Kay, G. Losa and N.McDonald, Trinity College,Dublin and Iberia Airlines

Probabilistic Modelling with Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Aircraft Crash 103

on Nuclear Power Plant

R. Alzbutas, K. Kupciuniene and G. Dundulis, Lithuanian Energy Institute

The Use of Modelling and Simulation in the Design of a Service Support System 116

for Aircraft Engines

J-P. Li and G. Thompson, University of Manchester

Reliability of 2-out-of-N Redundant Safety-Critical Systems with a Time- 126

varying Single-component Failure Rate

V. M. Dwyer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Loughborough University

Measures of Component State Importance in Multi-State Systems 138

E. Zaitseva, University of Zilina

Application of Kernel Estimators for the Analysis of Failure Data

H. Schabe, TUV Rheinland InterTraffic GmbH

150

Application of Bayesian Networks into the Risk Based Inspection Methodologies 161

F. De Carlo and 0. Borgia, University of Florence

Risk Prediction, Regulation, Perception, Acceptance and Avoidance: A General 172

TheoryR. B. Duffey and J. W. Saull, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and International

Federation ofAirworthiness

Historical Exploration - Learning Risk Lessons from the Past to Inform the 184

Future

T. Bedford, J. Quigley, M. Revie and L. Walls, University of Strathclyde

On Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Competing Risks 196

T. Maturi, P. Coolen-Schrijner and F. Coolen, Durham University

Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Acceptance Sampling with Destructive 212

Tests

M. Elsaeiti and F. Coolen, Durham University

New Plotting Positions Approach to Reliability Estimates from Small and 221

Censored Samples

P. Erto and A. Lepore, University ofNaples

High Performance Reliability Analysis of Phased Mission Systems 228

S. Reed, S. J. Dunnett and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive

Engineering, Loughborough University

Optimal Mission Reconfiguration for UAVs in Response to Changing 256

Environmental and Operational Conditions

K. Brazenaite, J. D. Andrews and W. H. Chen, Aeronautical and Automotive

Engineering, Loughborough University

Probability of Failure on Demand According to IS061508 - A Comparative 279

Examination of Analytical Calculations and Monte Carlo Simulations

J. R. Muller, T. Stander and E. Schnieder, University of Braunschweig

Use of Bayes Linear Modelling in a Defence Procurement Project to Support 291

Assessment of the Reliability Case

M. Revie, T. Bedford, R. Denning and L. Walls, University of Strathclyde

Phased Mission Modelling and Reconfiguration of Multi-Platform Systems using 303

BDDs

R. Remenyte-Prescott, D. Prescott and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and

Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University

Use of Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning Based CREAM to Facilitate the 318

Quantification of Human Failures in Maritime OperationsZ. Yang, M. Usman and J. Wang, Liverpool John Moores University

Prediction of the Residual Life of a Steel Bridge 325

L Gajdos and V. Svoboda, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic and

Preditest Ltd

Reliability Analysis of a Control System Built using Remote Redundancy 335

K. Echtle, T. Kimmeskamp, S. Jacquet, O. Malasse, M. Pock and M. Walter,Universitat Duisburg-Essen, Arts et Metiers ParisTech Metz and Technische

Universitat Munchen

System Failure Minimisation Using Automated Design Optimisation 347

D, Astapenko and L. M. Bartlett, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,Loughborough University

Use of Bayesian Belief Networks in a Dynamic Fault Diagnostic Application 360

M. Lampis and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,

Loughborough University

Modelling Availability Including Grace Periods 385

L Bednara and J. A. M. van der Weide, Delft University of Technology

Nonparametric Predictive System Reliability with Redundancy Allocation 396

Following Component TestingA. Aboalkhair, F. Coolen and I. MacPhee, Durham University

Optimization of Test Interval of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant Auxiliary Feedwater 408

Pumps

R. Voronov and R. Alzbutas, Lithuanian Energy Institute

A Cause Consequence Analysis Approach to Modelling Multi-Platform Phased 419

Missions

D. Prescott and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,Loughborough University

Severe Accident Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis Considering Dynamic 438

Reliability

R. Alzbutas, Lithuanian Energy Institute

An Integrated Design Optimisation Approach for Systems with DependenciesJ. Riauke and L. M. Bartlett, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,

Loughborough University