problem identification meeting (50% deliverable) february 10, 2009 aecom, inc. and a.d.a....
DESCRIPTION
Estero River South 25yr DS Water Surface Profile Three Oaks Corkscrew Rd Confluence w/ North Branch Sanctuary Rd I-75TRANSCRIPT
Problem Identification Meeting (50% Deliverable)
February 10, 2009
AECOM, Inc. and A.D.A. Engineering, Inc.
Agenda• Review flood profiles• Review flows in the Brooks area• Summarize bridge overtopping and flooding• Peak stage and flow results• Flooding maps• What if we had 1995 rainfall today• Compare the SLCWP flows to 100-year simulation
results• Summarize problems and challenges
Estero River South 25yr DS Water Surface Profile
0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 6000.0 7000.0 8000.0 9000.0 10000.0 11000.0 12000.0 13000.0[ft]
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
[feet] 3-8-2006 15:01:00
ESTERORIVS 0 - 6299
099
401
531
1019
2175
3150
3900
4100
4300
4451
5042
5381
5512
5608
6200
6299
ESTERORIVS 6299 - 8858
6430
7150
8165
8629
8760
8858
ESTERORIVS 8858 - 1294090
83
9633
9744
9941
1003
0
1041
9
1089
4
1115
611
383
1204
0
1254
0
1294
0
Three Oaks Corkscrew Rd
Confluence w/ North Branch
Sanctuary RdI-75
Estero River 25yr DS Water Surface Profile
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0 12000.0 14000.0 16000.0 18000.0 20000.0 22000.0[ft]
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
[feet] 3-8-2006 17:01:00
ESTERORIV 23212 - 9544
9544
968699
9610
140
1048
910
499
1063
010
850
1143
9
1201
612
141
1237
9
1297
9
1397
9
1497
9
1587
91667
9
1757
91860
4
1962
9
2067
9
2160
422
049
2208
922
154
2223
922
589
2278
923
089
2321
2
ESTERORIV 9544 - 311
311
574
732
1562
1952
2067
21142426
3226
3944
4944
5577
5922
6053
6236
6693
6857
723181
719038
9350
Sandy Lane
Rivers Ford Bridge
Rookery Bridge
Three Oaks I-75
Halfway Creek 25yr DS Water Surface Profile
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0 12000.0 14000.0 16000.0 18000.0 20000.0 22000.0 24000.0 26000.0 28000.0 30000.0[ft]
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
[feet] 3-8-2006 17:01:00
HALFWAYCR 0 - 3937
0 900
1400
2953 36
0839
37
HALFWAYCR 3937 - 9354
4900
5906
6890
7500
8858
9354
1025
9105
0010
649
1070
011
000
1160
011
800
1190
012
170
HALFWAYCRDS 12170 - 31742
1260
0 1310
013
500
1533
915
878
1697
8
1807
8
1922
3
2051
8
2171
8
2276
8 2381
8
2496
8
2611
8
2716
8
2821
8
2936
8
3061
8
3125
831
742
Three Oaks RR Crossing
FPL Crossing
US 41
Via Villagio
Spring Creek 25yr DS Water Surface Profile
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 10000.0 12000.0 14000.0 16000.0 18000.0 20000.0 22000.0 24000.0 26000.0 28000.0 30000.0 32000.0[ft]
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
[feet] 3-8-2006 13:01:00
FAIRWAYESTATES 4855 - 10827
4855
4921
1075
010
827
SPRINGCRSS 200 - 5541
200
853
1140
1575
1673
2428
2657
4080
4429
5541
SPRINGCR 4944 - 9892
4944
5730
7010
7110
7230
7283
7431
9892
SPRINGCR 9892 - 17438
9930
1173
0
1488
0
1683
017
438
SPRINGCR 17438 - 25938
2085
0
2258
0
2433
0
2567
925
938
Fairway Estates Weir
Old US 41
Railroad
FPL Crossing
US 41
Halfway Creek 10-Year Design Storm Flows Into the Brooks and Diversion Flows to the Estero River
15-7-2006 20-7-2006 25-7-2006 30-7-2006 4-8-2006 9-8-2006 14-8-2006 19-8-2006 24-8-2006 29-8-2006 3-9-2006 0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
[ft^3/s]
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
[feet]Time Series DischargeHALFWAYUP 6300.00HALFWAYCRDS 10400.00
Water LevelHALFWAYCR 3937.01
15-7-2006 20-7-2006 25-7-2006 30-7-2006 4-8-2006 9-8-2006 14-8-2006 19-8-2006 24-8-2006 29-8-2006 3-9-2006 8-9-2006 13-9-2006
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
[ft^3/s] Time Series Discharge DischargeTHREEOAKS 650.00HALFWAYCRDS 10400.00
Halfway Creek 10-year Design Storm Flows West of the Brooks
15-7-2006 25-7-2006 4-8-2006 14-8-2006 24-8-2006 3-9-2006 13-9-2006 23-9-2006
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
[ft^3/s] Time Series Discharge DischargeHALFWAYCRDS 10400.00HALFWAY_S 7555.00
15-7-2006 25-7-2006 4-8-2006 14-8-2006 24-8-2006 3-9-2006 13-9-2006 23-9-2006 0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
[ft^3/s] Time Series Discharge DischargeHALFWAYCRDS 10674.50HALFWAY_S 7850.00
Bridge Over-topping
Potential Flooding in the Brooks
Simulated Peak Stages, ft-NAVD Location Road
Deck 10-Year Elevation
25-Year Elevation
100-Year Elevation
North Branch Estero – Rivers Ford Road
12.7 14.0 14.8
Spring Creek, Strike Lane 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.7 Imperial Tributary at Pinecrest Lane
10.5 11.4
Simulated Peak Stages, ft-NAVD Location Structure
Elevation 10-Year Elevation
25-Year Elevation
100-Year Elevation
Brooks – minimum road 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 Brooks – minimum house 15.2 15.4
Comparison of Stages from the 1999 Study to this Study
• The table below compares stages for 5-, 10-, 25-, and 100-year design storms for the 1999 and the 2009 South Lee County studies
• Differences are large for Halfway Creek at US 41, Spring Creek at Strike Lane, Srping Creek South at Old U.S. 41 (USGS gage), and the Imperial River at Matheson Street
5 10 25 100Estero River South Branch at I-75 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1ER SB Corkscrew Road, 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.7HC at US 41, 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.5 Spring Ck at Strike Lane, 3.1 2.2 1.7 2.4Spring Ck South at Old US 41 -3.8 -4.0 -3.9 -3.3Spring Ck @ FPL crossing 3.9 4.2 4.5 5.9Spring Ck at US 41. 0.8 1.1 1.3 2.0Kehl Canal at Bonita Grande Drive 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0Imperial River at Matheson Street Bridge 3.3 4.0 3.6 3.1
DifferenceRiver
5 10 25 100 5 10 25 100Estero River South Branch at I-75 252.6 16.7 17.7 18.2 18.3 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.2ER SB Corkscrew Road, 8697.50656 9.5 10.4 12.2 13.1 11.2 12.4 14.2 14.8HC at US 41, 12870 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 Spring Ck at Strike Lane, 14107.6 13.0 14.3 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.1 18.0Spring Ck South at Old US 41 1637.139 10.1 10.6 11.4 11.7 6.3 6.6 7.4 8.4Spring Ck @ FPL crossing 3900 5.9 6.2 6.8 7.2 9.7 10.3 11.3 13.2Spring Ck at US 41. 7358.92 2.7 2.8 3.3 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.6 5.7Kehl Canal at Bonita Grande Drive 98.425 14.2 14.3 15.0 15.7 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.7Imperial River at Matheson Street Bridge 14291 4.7 4.7 6.2 7.7 8.0 8.7 9.8 10.8
River Chainage1999 SLC Flood Study 2009 SLC Update
Comparison of Flows from the 1999 Study to this Study
• The table below compares flows for 5-, 10-, 25-, and 100-year design storms for the 1999 and the 2009 South Lee County studies
• Differences are large for Halfway Creek at US 41, Spring Creek at Strike Lane, Spring Creek South at Old U.S. 41 (USGS gage), and the Imperial River at Matheson Street
5 10 25 100 5 10 25 100Estero River South Branch at I-75 252.6 196 248 343 380 238 258 298 340ER SB Corkscrew Road, 8697.50656 196 243 340 378 289 361 422 547Halfway Ck at US 41, 12870 85 87 84 129 236 271 303 338 Spring Ck at Strike Lane, 14107.6 32 43 78 103 148 192 224 245Spring Ck South at Old US 41 1637.139 59 79 145 189 167 212 289 379SC @ FPL crossing 3900 160 217 400 520 80 99 127 139SC at US 41. 7358.92 160 217 400 520 315 406 609 976Kehl Canal at Bonita Grande Drive 98.425 782 830 1,205 1,641 959 1,100 1,405 1,765Imperial River at Matheson Street Bridge 14291 939 940 1,312 1,736 1,360 1,540 1,929 2,410
River Chainage1999 SLC Flood Study 2009 SLC Update
5 10 25 100 5 10 25 100Estero River South Branch at I-75 42 10 -45 -40 21% 4% -13% -11%ER SB Corkscrew Road, 93 118 82 169 48% 49% 24% 45%Halfway Ck at US 41, 151 184 219 209 178% 211% 260% 162% Spring Ck at Strike Lane, 116 149 146 142 361% 346% 187% 138%Spring Ck South at Old US 41 167 212 289 379 283% 268% 199% 200%SC @ FPL crossing -80 -118 -273 -381 -50% -54% -68% -73%SC at US 41. 155 189 209 456 97% 87% 52% 88%Kehl Canal at Bonita Grande Drive 177 270 200 124 23% 32% 17% 8%Imperial River at Matheson Street Bridge 421 600 617 674 45% 64% 47% 39%
Difference, %Difference, cfsRiver
Inundation Maps
• Switch to ArcGIS
Comparison of actual 1995 vs what would happen if we had 1995 rainfall today
Imperial River Flows - Spliced 1995 vs Measured 1995
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1-Jul-06 31-Jul-06 30-Aug-06 29-Sep-06 29-Oct-06 28-Nov-06 28-Dec-06
cfs
Imp R Orr Sim Imp
Estero River South Flows - Spliced 1995 vs Measured 1995
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1-Jul-06 31-Jul-06 30-Aug-06 29-Sep-06 29-Oct-06 28-Nov-06 28-Dec-06
cfs
Estero S Sim ER_S
Spring Creek Flows - Spliced 1995 vs Measured 1995
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1-Jul-06 31-Jul-06 30-Aug-06 29-Sep-06 29-Oct-06 28-Nov-06 28-Dec-06
cfs
Spring Ck Sim Spring
Estero River North Flows - Spliced 1995 vs Measured 1995
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1-Jul-06 31-Jul-06 30-Aug-06 29-Sep-06 29-Oct-06 28-Nov-06 28-Dec-06
cfs
Estero N Sim ER N
Brooks Agreement from 1999 SLCWP
• 2009 simulated 100-year peak flow for Halfway Creek at U.S. 41 is 340 cfs
• Brooks diversion simulated 100-year flow to the Estero River is 14 cfs, less than 10% of the planned diversion
• Peak stages in the Brooks will result in flooding of some buildings during the 100-year event, while peak flows into the Brooks under I-75 are 400 cfs, less than half of planned flows
• Flows to the South Branch of the Estero River are less than half of planned flows
p. 6 of Amendment 1
Definition of Existing Problems
• Water levels appear to be higher than desired in the Brooks while predicted peak flows through the Brooks are less than one half of design levels
• Water levels appear to be very high in San Carlos Estates (see Spring Creek at Strike Lane), however modifications to the model files are being made to adjust this. Flooding of San Carlos Estates is expected to persist in spite of the model changes. This condition will have to be considered before any proposal to divert Halfway Creek flows through Spring Creek.
• Flows in the South Branch of the Estero River do not cause flooding problems
• Flows in the North Branch of the Estero River appear to result in road flooding in Country Creek Estates, however model instabilities may be the problem
• If rainfall conditions observed in 1995 occurred today, flows might be less than before, however model results files are still under review